Cocoa Prices Research Articles

Evaluating the Position of Côte d’Ivoire’s Cocoa Industry on the Global Production Chain and the Influencing Factors

This study investigates the position of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa industry within the global production chain and identifies key influencing factors from 1960 to 2024. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the research evaluates the effects of economic and climate variables—cocoa bean production, global cocoa prices, GDP contributions, domestic cocoa grindings, rainfall, and temperature—on cocoa exports. The findings reveal that a 1% increase in global cocoa prices decreases exports by 0.45%, indicating significant price sensitivity. Cocoa bean production accounts for 42.39% of export variance over the long term, while GDP contributions (0.88%) and domestic cocoa grindings (0.34%) enhance competitiveness and value addition. Rainfall negatively impacts productivity, underscoring vulnerabilities to climate variability, whereas temperature has a short-term positive effect on export performance (0.12%). Short-term dynamics demonstrate rapid adjustments toward equilibrium, with adjustment speeds of 41.23% for Côte d’Ivoire and 37.21% for Ghana. The study highlights Côte d’Ivoire’s dependence on raw cocoa exports and its susceptibility to price volatility and climate risks. By comparing Côte d’Ivoire with Ghana, the analysis underscores the advantages of robust domestic processing policies. To ensure long-term sustainability, the study recommends expanding domestic cocoa processing, adopting agroforestry practices to mitigate climate risks, and investing in infrastructure to boost competitiveness and resilience.

From chocolate to palm oil: The future of Indonesia's cocoa plantations.

Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer, but production is decreasing since 2011. We revisited cocoa farmers for an environmental assessment in Luwu Timur, Sulawesi, 7months after a socio-economic survey on cocoa certification outcomes and observed many cocoa plantations being converted into oil palm and maize. Including our field data as well as secondary data on commodity prices and yields, we outline reasons for cocoa conversion, potential consequences for biodiversity, and assess the future outlook for the Indonesian cocoa sector. Low cocoa productivity, volatile cocoa prices and higher revenue for oil palm, among others, drive land-use change. If shade trees are cut during cocoa conversion, it may have negative implications for biodiversity. Solutions to low soil fertility, omnipresent pests and diseases, and stable producer prices are needed to increase profitability of cocoa and prevent conversion of cocoa agroforests to oil palm monocultures.

Influential Factors of Indonesian Cocoa Export: Evidence from FMOLS and DOLS Approaches

The study investigated the determinants of cocoa exports using both FMOLS and DOLS approaches. The time series data were obtained from FAOSTAT and ICCO websites from the year 1990 to 2022. ADF and PP stationary unit roots were conducted to examine the stationarity of the variables while Johansen cointegration was used to verify the cointegrating among the variables. The outcome of the Johansen cointegration analysis suggests the existence of a cointegration relationship among the eight variables, indicating the presence of long-run relationships among the variables. The estimated results revealed that cocoa productivity, domestic cocoa production, domestic cocoa supply, exchange rates, and world cocoa prices affect Indonesian cocoa exports. Based on the estimated results and discussion, the study draws a conclusion that cocoa productivity, domestic cocoa production, exchange rates, and world cocoa prices positively and statistically significantly influenced cocoa exports while domestic cocoa supply negatively affected Indonesian cocoa exports. The study recommends that the government of Indonesia should stabilize the fluctuating exchange rates and encourage cocoa production via higher productivity by practicing farm rehabilitation practices to increase productivity and cocoa beans for exports. Moreover, the supply of cocoa beans should also be increased by increasing domestic producer prices. These key determinants are crucial for policymakers and industry stakeholders to understand and address to enhance the competitiveness and growth of the cocoa export industry in Indonesia.

The Development and Characterisation of a Sustainable Plant-Based Sweet Spread Using Carob as a Cocoa and Sugar Replacement

Cocoa prices are predicted to rise continually, as demand remains high and there are supply issues caused by crop yield fluctuations. This study aimed to develop a sustainable plant-based sweet spread using functional plant-based ingredients, chickpeas and carob, as a cocoa and sugar alternative. Recipe optimisation resulted in the production of a control sample made using cocoa and three experimental samples containing varying proportions of carob (50%, 75%, and 100%). The samples were analysed for their physicochemical characteristics (water activity, pH, colour, and texture) and proximate composition (moisture, ash, carbohydrate, sugars, starch, protein, fat, and energy). Using carob as a cocoa substitute significantly decreased the pH, firmness and stickiness, fat and energy contents. On the other hand, increasing the percentage of carob led to a substantially higher sugar content in the sweet spreads. The results show the possibility of developing an innovative sustainable plant-based chocolate-flavoured spread with favourable physicochemical characteristics and nutritional profiles using carob powder and syrup as a cocoa and sugar replacement.

Complex cocoa agroforestry systems shaped within specific socioeconomic and historical contexts in Africa: Lessons from Cameroonian farmers

CONTEXTIn the humid tropics, the socioecological advantages of family-based, multistory agroforestry systems are well recognized. Yet public policies tend to focus on conservation and land-sparing strategies alongside the promotion of modern intensive agriculture, neglecting these biodiverse agroecosystems, which are in decline. This is a particularly central issue in cocoa cultivation. In Africa's two largest cocoa-producing countries (Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana), cocoa plantations with few associated trees contribute to deforestation and biodiversity loss. In contrast, in regions like Cameroon, biodiversity-rich cocoa agroforests prevail. Considering global changes and rising cocoa demand, it is crucial to preserve and develop these agroforestry systems that reconcile cocoa production with ecosystem services. OBJECTIVEThis study, conducted in Cameroon between 2013 and 2017, aimed to pinpoint the socioeconomic factors influencing the characteristics, maintenance, and degradation of cocoa agroforests, with the ultimate goal of identifying intervention strategies to promote their preservation and development. METHODSThe study collected data from (i) on-field measurements in 95 cocoa agroforestry plots, (ii) interviews with the 95 farmers managing the plots, and (iii) historical interviews with 50 key informants. We focused on five sites across a gradient of population density, encompassing various socioecological environments and types of cocoa agroforests. Through thematic and statistical analyses, we evaluated differences between the five sites. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOur results indicated contrasting management practices, dendrometric structure, species composition, and cocoa yields between sites. These contrasts largely reflected socioeconomic factors and site-specific dynamics. Cocoa agroforests were less rich in biodiversity in sites where farmers with capital using hired labor had acquired land than in sites where family farmers predominated. A trade-off was found between the richness of companion trees and cocoa yields. Plots managed by smallholder family farmers near urban areas tended to better reconcile cocoa production and biodiversity conservation. These farmers had gradually transformed their traditional agroforests to adapt to increasing demographic pressure by integrating diverse fruit tree species, using pesticides sparingly, and introducing selected cocoa varieties mixed with older varieties. SIGNIFICANCEThe small-scale family-managed cocoa agroforests, which incorporate fruit species as described in this study, could serve as a model for a more sustainable cocoa production strategy. However, developing such a strategy would require greater investment and support from policymakers. This includes supporting the marketing of products from companion trees, stabilizing cocoa prices at a high level, and implementing land policies that protect small and medium-sized family farmers.

The Influence of Production Quantity, World Cocoa Prices, and Exchange Rates on Indonesian Cocoa Export Volume for the 2008-2023 Period

The Influence of Production Quantity, World Cocoa Prices, and Exchange Rates on Indonesian Cocoa Export Volume for the 2008-2023 Period

Pengaruh Jumlah Produksi Kakao, Harga Kakao Dunia, Nilai Tukar, dan Harga Ekspor Kakao terhadap Ekspor Kakao di Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the development of cocoa commodity exports in Indonesia. This study uses time series data from 2002 to 2016 and processed using SPSS. The independent variables in this study are the Total Cocoa Production, World Cocoa Prices, Exchange Rates, and Cocoa Export Prices with the dependent variable namely Indonesian Cocoa Exports. Simultaneous test results show that Cocoa Production Amount, World Cocoa Prices, Exchange Rates, and Cocoa Export Prices simultaneously have a significant effect on Cocoa Exports in Indonesia. While the partial test results indicate that the variable Cocoa Production Amount, World Cocoa Prices, Exchange Rates, and Cocoa Export Prices are partially not significantly influence the Cocoa Export in Indonesia.

Competitiveness of Bali Province’s Cocoa Exports in the International Market

International trade greatly influences a country's economic growth. If a country exports more than it imports, that country's national income will increase, thus having a positive effect on economic growth. Indonesia has various products that are traded on the international market, one of which is cocoa produced by Bali Province. This research aims to analyze the competitiveness of Bali Province's cocoa exports in the international market along with the factors that influence the cocoa commodity exports. This research is quantitative descriptive research with the data used is annual data on the value of Bali Province cocoa exports for a period of 12 years from 2010 to 2021. The data collection technique used in this research is a literature study in the relevant agency (Disperindag Bali Province). Based on data analysis, it was found that Bali Province's cocoa exports in the period 2010 - 2021 did not have a comparative advantage as shown by the RCA analysis value of 0.54. Meanwhile, if we look at the competitive advantage based on the EPD analysis value, it is found that on average the Bali Province cocoa commodity is in a falling star position, which means it has a competitive advantage but low competitiveness. The export value of Bali Province's cocoa commodities is significantly influenced by the amount of cocoa production, the USD exchange rate, and inflation. Meanwhile, the international price of cocoa has not had a significant effect on the value of Bali Province's cocoa commodity exports.

Competitiveness of Bali Province’s Cocoa Exports in the International Market

International trade greatly influences a country's economic growth. If a country exports more than it imports, that country's national income will increase, thus having a positive effect on economic growth. Indonesia has various products that are traded on the international market, one of which is cocoa produced by Bali Province. This research aims to analyze the competitiveness of Bali Province's cocoa exports in the international market along with the factors that influence the cocoa commodity exports. This research is quantitative descriptive research with the data used is annual data on the value of Bali Province cocoa exports for a period of 12 years from 2010 to 2021. The data collection technique used in this research is a literature study in the relevant agency (Disperindag Bali Province). Based on data analysis, it was found that Bali Province's cocoa exports in the period 2010 - 2021 did not have a comparative advantage as shown by the RCA analysis value of 0.54. Meanwhile, if we look at the competitive advantage based on the EPD analysis value, it is found that on average the Bali Province cocoa commodity is in a falling star position, which means it has a competitive advantage but low competitiveness. The export value of Bali Province's cocoa commodities is significantly influenced by the amount of cocoa production, the USD exchange rate, and inflation. Meanwhile, the international price of cocoa has not had a significant effect on the value of Bali Province's cocoa commodity exports.

Abysmal Hike in Global Cocoa Price and its Implications on Cocoa Plantations in Tamil Nadu - A Critical Analysis

Cocoa belonging to the family Sterculiaceae has its origin in South America and later it had spread to Europe, Africa and Asia. In Tamil Nadu, cocoa is accommodated as an intercrop in arecanut and coconut plantations especially in South India. But over the past few years, the acreage under cocoa showed a steady decline and the area currently hovers around 5,000 ha especially concentrated in Coimbatore, Theni and Kanyakumari districts of the state. Price volatility is the key player in culminating cocoa plantations in the state. But the recent global shortage of cocoa associated with climatic vagaries and biotic stress like swollen shoot virus and black pod disease in the leading cocoa producers of the world has prompted a positive note in the price of cocoa beans in India. Government policies like ban on deforestation and engaging child labourers for farming and underinvestment in cocoa gardens in the West African countries also added hue to the problem. A record high of ten fold increase in price was observed during the last quarter of 2023 and first quarter of 2024. According to the International Cocoa Organization, global cocoa supply will decline by almost 11% over the 2023/2024 season. Global price has a direct impact on cocoa plantations in the state of Tamil Nadu as many cocoa orchards were cleared due to the lack of remunerative price. But the abysmal price hike in the global front has invited the farmers to rejuvenate the abandoned cocoa plantations and bring new area under cultivation in Tamil Nadu as price was the key player in giving up the crop during 2010s by the farmers. Abysmal hike in global cocoa price has brought a ray of hope for the expanding acreage of cocoa in the state of Tamil Nadu.

Fostering cocoa industry resilience: A collaborative approach to managing farm gate price fluctuations in West Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract Agricultural price fluctuations impact the economy and society, highlighting the importance of price stability for sustainable development, poverty alleviation, food security, and economic stability. This issue is particularly pronounced in the cocoa industry, where volatile prices and inefficient supply chains often harm the livelihoods of cocoa farmers. This study aimed to develop a mitigation plan to address cocoa price volatility at the farm level. The study was conducted in Tubbi Taramanu Sub-district, Polewali Mandar District, Indonesia. Through the innovative use of Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM), the key elements are delineated in their hierarchical relationships and categorized into four quadrants: autonomous, independent, dependent, and linkage, to formulate a strategy for stabilizing cocoa prices at the farm level. This research’s findings underscored the importance of reducing farmers’ dependency on middlemen as the primary strategy for mitigating fluctuations in cocoa bean prices at the farm level. This approach is particularly vital due to the excessive reliance on middlemen, a key driver of price instability at the farm level. Furthermore, it is evident that promoting and nurturing cooperation between farmers and cocoa industry stakeholders can prove highly effective and significant when fortified by the local government’s support through the implementation of appropriate public policies.

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH, HARGA INTERNASIONAL DAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI KAKAO TERHADAP VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO INDONESIA

This research aims to determine the effect of the rupiah exchange rate, international prices, and the amount of cocoa production on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports from 1990-2022. This research uses secondary data and time series data from 1990-2022 obtained from the World Bank, Badan Pusat Statistic (BPS), and International Cocoa Organizations. The data analysis method uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results of this research show that the rupiah exchange rate variable in both the short and long term has a positive and insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports. In the short term, the international cocoa price variable has a positive and insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports, while in the long term, it has a negative and insignificant effect. And the production quantity variable has a positive and significant impact on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports in the short and long term.

Salmonella Typhimurium outbreak caused by contaminated chocolate highlights the importance of food hygiene and a socially responsible food chain

Recent global salmonella outbreak was linked to chocolate products but potential role of cocoa beans has been neglected. Chocolate related salmonella outbreaks have occurred mostly during low cocoa price levels. Food business operators should ensure hygiene at all production stages. These outbreaks highlight corporate social responsibility while demonstrating the need of multi-professional approaches.

Policy and Competitiveness of Integrated Agricultural-Based technology for Cocoa Production in Indonesia: Application of a Policy Analysis Matrix

Purpose: The research aimed to evaluate the competitiveness of smallholder cocoa plantations and the efficiency of input use in cocoa farming by strengthening farmer groups Indonesia. Theoretical framework: The research design includes the steps taken in conducting research, data sources, and how to obtain data and data analysis. The research clearly describes the variables, data collection, and data analysis methods to have a clear picture of the competitiveness of cocoa farming. Design/methodology/approach : Measuring the competitiveness of cocoa in Bali using the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) method. PAM analysis is used to calculate private profit, which is a measure of farm competitiveness at the market price level or the actual price Findings: Competitiveness at the social price level is placed on the second row of the PAM table, Indonesia is an agricultural country and the development of the main agricultural sector, especially cocoa commodities which are managed through community plantations in rural areas, shows the ability to be comparatively competitive, even competitive, even though some components such as private farmer profits can be achieved at 69% compared to what cocoa farmers should receive. Farmers can receive social benefits of up to 40%. Even though cocoa production receives output subsidies, cocoa farmers are only able to obtain a price of 79%, or 21% lower than the world cocoa price, but it is still competitively profitable for farmers. The inputs needed by farmers in cocoa production can be managed by farmers so that the price of tradable inputs at the farmer level shows the same price at the economic level so that it is said to have comparative and competitive competitiveness. Research, Practical & Social implications: Competitive cocoa in Indonesia provides benefits to farmers at small-scale plantations of up to 69 %, and the profits received by farmers are 40% when measured comparatively. Originality/value: Originality/Value: This research is original. Implemented in smallholder cocoa plantations in Indonesia with integrated crop-livestock farming patterns to produce outputs that can compete at social prices and to motivate other cocoa farmers to develop farming system innovations that can increase cocoa production based on local resources.

Short communication: Opportunities and challenges for Peruvian fine flavored cocoa

The notable increase in the price of cocoa globally has generated interest both in the scientific community and in the many actors involved in the production chain. The objective of this communication was to collect some opinions on the opportunities and challenges that must be addressed from the perspective of small producers, academia and government. The need to improve native varieties of fine-flavor cocoa to be highly productive and resilient to climate change is discussed, as well as the urgency of effective knowledge transfer from academia in optimizing the conditions of fermentation, drying, and roasting processes, according to cocoa variety and considering producers' conditions. Actions to promote cocoa consumption, such as its inclusion in gastronomy, promotion of its nutraceutical properties, redefinition of fair objectives, and formation of specialized taster schools, are also suggested. Finally, it is noted that it is necessary to clarify state interventions to avoid redundant efforts, as well as to allocate a budget to fulfil the "National Plan for the Development of the Cocoa and Chocolate Production Chain by 2030".

COCOA MARKETING CHANNEL ANALYSIS IN MARGOLEMBO VILLAGE, MANGKUTANA DISTRICT, EAST LUWU REGENCY

The cocoa marketing problem faced is the lack of information on marketing channels for farmers whereas from the farmer's point of view as producers, information regarding effective and efficient marketing channels is one of the things that can encourage increased cocoa production. The importance of access to marketing information for farmers so that farmers can find out directly the selling price of cocoa from each marketing agency. The purpose of this research is to analyze the size of the margin in each cocoa bean marketing channel that has been formed. The analysis in this study includes channel analysis and marketing functions, marketing margins and efficiency. The results showed that there were 2 marketing channels in Margolembo Village, where channel I: farmers --- wholesalers --- cocoa management companies and channel II: farmers --- collecting traders --- wholesalers --- cocoa management companies. Marketing functions carried out by cocoa bean marketing institutions include exchange functions, physical functions and facility functions. The biggest margin, cost and profit value is in channel II, which is Rp 4,000. Based on the marketing efficiency analysis obtained, the two marketing channels in Margolembo Village are efficient and channel I is the most efficient marketing channel with a value of 4.4% and marketing channel II with an efficiency value of 6.9%. The conclusion of this research is that marketing channel I's marketing margin is Rp 1,000/kg and in marketing channel II is Rp 4,000/kg.

Business cycles in a cocoa and gold economy: Commodity price shocks do not always matter

This paper seeks to characterize the response of Ghana’s business cycle to cocoa and gold commodity price shocks using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. We then provide some plausible explanations underlying the estimated effect of these price shocks on Ghana’s business cycle. In the yearly model, a significant positive effect of a cocoa price shock on Ghana’s business cycle is observed using data from 1960 to 2018. However, no significant effect of a gold price shock on Ghana’s business cycle was found. In the quarterly model, we found no significant effect of both cocoa and gold price shocks on Ghana’s quarterly business cycle under Ghana’s inflation-targeting monetary policy regime. The study concludes that the expected strong influence of cocoa and gold commodity price shocks on Ghana’s yearly and quarterly business cycles is not consistently supported by empirical data for all periods and time frequencies. We then suggest plausible explanations for the unexpectedly weak estimated effects of the two commodity price shocks on Ghana’s business cycle, particularly after the mid-1980s, including the role of a foreign-dominated gold sector, the influence of cocoa forward contracts, and the impact of cocoa smuggling. These findings call into question the incorporation of cocoa and gold commodity sectors into a business cycle model for Ghana’s economy for all business cycle episodes and time frequencies, contrary to conventional wisdom. Gold and cocoa windfalls/shortfalls in the short run are almost non-existent, which has important implications for Ghanaian policymakers and model builders.

Socioeconomic analysis of the cocoa production chain in Esmeraldas Province, Ecuador

This research aims to conduct a socioeconomic study of the cocoa production chain in the province of Esmeraldas through a descriptive analysis from 2016 to 2021, using primary sources from the Agricultural Public Information System (SIPA) database. According to the type of study, it was carried out in a cross-sectional manner since the data of variables obtained in a specific period of time were analyzed to establish fundamental particularities such as: standard deviation, kurtosis, and ranges. To determine the price and production of cocoa, it was developed through histograms, time series, and correlations to obtain detailed data and thus know the link between the variables under study.

Investigating and forecasting the impact of crop production shocks on global commodity prices

In this study, we investigate and forecast the impact of crop production shocks on the global prices of three major international agricultural commodities: maize, soybean, and cocoa. We perform a thorough assessment of the forecasting performances of five econometric and machine learning models using 60 years of data. First, we train the models on production and price data to forecast the monthly price variations for each crop separately considering different time horizons. Next, we implement a cross-validation procedure to identify the models with the most accurate forecasting ability for each crop. After choosing the best forecaster, we identify the most influential producing areas using several local and global model-agnostic interpretation tools. Our findings indicate significant differences among commodities in terms of prediction accuracy, with cocoa exhibiting a higher level of prediction error compared to less volatile markets like maize and soybean. Our results reveal a significant influence of Northern America’s maize and soybean production on the global prices of these commodities. The effects of production on prices are asymmetrical: small decreases in US production lead to substantial price increases, while small increases in production do not systematically decrease prices. In contrast, cocoa price variations are influenced by production coming from several regions, not from a single one.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENDAPATAN PETANI KAKAO DI DESA PADANG KAMBURI KECAMATAN BUPON KABUPATEN LUWU

Income is all receipts in the form of money or in the form of goods originating from other parties or industrial products which are valued on the basis of an amount of money from assets that are in effect at that time. Income is a person's source of income to meet the needs of daily life and is very important for the survival and livelihood of a person directly or indirectly. The purpose of this research is to find out whether capital, labor, land area and selling price affect the income of kdakao farmers in Padang Kamburi Village, Bupon District, Luwu Regency and to find out how much the net income of cocoa farmers is in Padang Kamburi Village, Bupon District, Luwu Regency. The type of research used is quantitative, with data collection methods namely observation, interviews, documentation and questionnaires. The data obtained in this study were then analyzed and processed based on the research objectives to be achieved. The data analysis technique used in this study was carried out using several methods, namely Validity Test, Reliability Test, Multiple Linear Regression Test and Income Test. From the research results it is known that the income of cocoa farmers in Padang Kamburi Village, Bupon District, Luwu Regency is strongly influenced by factors of production costs, cocoa prices, labor, and land area. The net income of cocoa farmers in Padang Kamburi Village, Bupon District, Luwu Regency is IDR 1,393,775.78 in one harvest.