Wood Prices Research Articles

Can forestry be a competitive land use option?: Model simulations from humid tropical Costa Rica

Model simulations are carried out to study options for managed natural forest and melina ( Gmelina arborea) and teak ( Tectona grandis) plantations on land suited for agriculture in the humid tropical Atlantic lowlands of Costa Rica. Tools used are a linear programming model that maximizes regional economic surplus, and the so-called technical coefficient generators that quantify input and outputs of forestry and competing crop and pasture-based beef cattle production systems. Model scenarios are carried out for varying prices of wood, beef and labor, under conditions of unlimited and restricted wood markets. Results indicate that teak and melina plantations are attractive land use options while managed natural forest is not. With unlimited wood demand, teak occupies 70% of the study area and total yearly teak production exceeds current Costa Rican wood consumption, indicating the need to include market mechanisms in the study. The area under teak is relatively insensitive to price changes between –40 and +60% of the base value of $95 m −3 (1996 stumpage price). The area under melina changes considerably with price changes of ±20% of the base value of US$16 m −3. Natural forest revenues must rise by 440% of the current $32 m −3 to make it economically more attractive than other land use options, especially pasture for beef production and melina plantations. Increasing labor costs are likely to favor tree plantations. Increasing beef prices considerably reduce the competitiveness of melina, though not that of teak.

Análise econômica de um sistema agro-silvo-pastorial com eucalipto implantado em região de cerrado.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo verificar se é viável, economicamente, implantar sistemas agro-silvo-pastoril com eucalipto (consórcio de eucalipto com arroz, soja e pastagens) em áreas de cerrado, visando a produzir madeira para serraria e para energia, bem como analisar o efeito que mudanças nos parâmetros taxa de desconto; valor da terra; preços da madeira, do boi gordo, do arroz e da soja; produtividades da madeira, do arroz e da soja; proporção da tora que é aproveitável para serraria e para energia; custos de produção provocam na viabilidade econômica do sistema. A área de estudo está situada no município de Paracatu, Minas Gerais. O método de avaliação econômica usado foi o Valor Presente Líquido. Os resultados encontrados permitiram concluir que implantar sistemas agro-silvo-pastoris com eucalipto em região de cerrado é uma opção viável economicamente, desde que, pelo menos, 5% da madeira produzida seja usada para serraria e a madeira restante seja usada para energia ou para outro fim que alcance valor igual ou mais alto no mercado. Algumas situações que podem fazer com que o sistema dê prejuízo são: taxas de desconto maiores que 11,45% ao ano; preço da terra acima de US$ 200.90 por hectare; produtividade do eucalipto inferior a 20,86 st/ha.ano; preço da arroba de boi menor que US$ 16.75; preço da madeira para serraria abaixo de US$ 5.24/st; preços do saco de soja e de arroz inferiores a US$ 6.34 e US$ 5.96 respectivamente; aumento de mais de 5,38%, simultaneamente, em todos os custos de produção.

An econometric analysis of output supply and input demand in the Canadian softwood lumber industry

Few studies have examined the own-price elasticity of Canadian softwood lumber supply or output-adjusted factor demand elasticities over the past two decades, despite the utility of these measures in understanding producer re - sponse to tariffs, to market shifts (such as the decline in U.S. public harvest), and to changes in domestic forest poli - cies. The present analysis employs a normalized, restricted quadratic profit function approach to estimate lumber supply and Marshallian factor demand elasticities for three Canadian regions. Results indicate that the lumber supply elasticity in the British Columbia coast region may be twice as large as that in the interior or eastern regions. Comparison of Hicksian factor demand elasticities with earlier studies suggests that the own price elasticity of labor demand may be two or more times larger than that for wood. Results also indicate differential time trends in Marshallian lumber output and wood demand elasticities across regions, rising in the British Columbia coast and falling elsewhere over the past two decades. Morishima elasticities of substitution from the present and past studies indicate that the wood for labor factor intensity is more sensitive to changes in labor price than is the labor for wood intensity to changes in wood price.

Forest management models based on linear programming. An application to Navafría forest (Segovia, Spain)

This paper illustrates how analytical methods like linear programming can be fruitfully applied to forest management problems. This kind of approach is rather ignored in Spain. In fact, since last century Spanish forests have been managed with the help of German methods, which are not supported by any optimisation model. A linear programming model is built and applied to the Spanish forest Navafría. This forest has been chosen for our exercise because it has been deeply studied with the help of classic methods, so that different methodologies can be compared. Four objectives functions have been defined. Two are typically linked to silvicultural goals: maximise the total timber volume and veneer volume, and the other two show economic targets: maximise the net present value and maximise a similar cash flow in each period. Several constraints have been introduced. In all cases except one a feasible solution was found. Besides, a sensitivity analysis have been incorporated in order to check the influence of variations of the discount rate and expected wood price. The management alternatives proposed in this paper show harvest flows longer than the harvest flow indicated in the management project. In short, the results generated in our application by classic (German) methods can be considered a particular case of the results provided by the optimisation models based upon linear programming.

Evolution of the Timber Industry Along an Aging Frontier: The Case of Paragominas (1990–1995)

The timber industry of the Brazilian Amazon is changing rapidly. From a slowly evolving base of extraction in the estuary areas, the industry has expanded along an extensive road network penetrating upland forests. This research examines changes in the economic profile of timber extraction and processing in an old frontier area, the county of Paragominas in the state of Pará. As one of the earliest centers of upland logging in the Amazon, its experience after 25 years offers insights as the industry spreads to other regions in the Basin. This paper presents a theoretical model of industry evolution in frontier areas, and analyzes response to local shortages in raw material, rising international wood prices and increasingly stable property rights as the frontier matures.

Incorporating cointegration relations in a short-run model of the Finnish sawlog market

This paper reports on the results of a simultaneous equations sawlog market model using monthly data for Finland in 1985-1997. Johansen's multivariate method is used to estimate cointegration vectors, which are then included in a dynamic error-correction model. Rank tests indicate two cointegrating vectors, which is theoretically consistent with the demand and supply equations. In the sawlog demand, the equilibrium is established for sawlog stumpage price and quantity and sawn wood price and capital stock, while the supply function in a perfect capital market entails sawlog price and quantity, real interest rate, and the effect of increasing timber stock as captured by a linear trend. Contrary to earlier findings, stumpage price seems to have a positive effect on sawlog supply, both in the short and long run, while only the long-run price effect is present in the sawlog demand. Disequilibrium in demand is corrected within one quarter, while the speed of adjustment is found to be slow in the sawlog supply.

Structural changes in sawlog and pulpwood markets in Finland

This paper presents a short‐term econometric model for the sawlog and pulpwood markets in Finland. More specifically, the effects of structural changes in the market on the success of short‐term market modelling are investigated. Wood prices and quantities traded are stationary. Therefore, valid statistical inference using the levels of these variables is possible. Pulpwood prices were found to be directly proportional to sawlog prices during the study period, and the cross‐price effects were not statistically significant. The results indicated that the price sensitivity of wood supply in Finland increased during the 1980s and early 1990s. Nationwide collective price agreements were found to have increased the level of pulpwood supply and demand from private forests, but to have had no effect on either supply of or demand for sawlogs. Due to a structural change in the 1970s, the models estimated for the whole period cannot be used for short‐term forecasting in the 1990s. Higher‐than‐annual frequency data should be used in developing accurate short‐term forecasting models.

Applying Objectively Estimated and Spatially Continuous Forest Parameters in Tactical Planning to Obtain Dynamic, Treatment Units

Abstract Forestry planning is usually approached as the problem of combining and scheduling stand treatments. Stands are assumed to be homogeneous and spatially static and are usually delineated and described by subjective surveying methods. Because, in reality, stands vary internally, only subsets of the possible management alternatives will be considered in stand-based planning. As price expectations and other planning parameters change over time, it is likely that optimal locations, extensions, and schedules for forest operations change. This paper proposes a method whereby timber volumes and treatment priorities are estimated on objectively inventoried geo-referenced circular plots. Kriging interpolation and image analysis of scanned aerial photographs are then used to predict the variables in a spatially near-continuous raster. Treatment units are dynamically formed, based on price-expectations, and objectives defined by the forest owner. Given strategic goals, tactical plans are produced for two wood price situations, and compared with a plan based on conventional stands. The results imply that forest management planning should, perhaps, not be based on static stands if economic efficiency and planning flexibility are desirable. For. Sci. 43(3):317-326.

Forestry tradition in the long term. A review of Franz Heske (1927/1928): 'A general review of post-war forestry in Central Europe'

Summary The review of Heske's analysis after 70 years shows a general trend in increasing timber production for West Germany and Austria as well as for the central planned economies of Eastern Europe. The growing stock has almost doubled. Economic results of forestry, however, decreased significantly after World War II in West Germany and Austria. Prices of raw wood in real value in 1990 reached only half the figure of 1950. Production costs could not be brought down enough to guarantee forest profits. At the same time, demands for non-wood benefits increased. A mixed ownership of state, community and private will again characterize forestry in all Central European countries, as the young democracies started re-privatizations of forest land after 1989. Due to changes in agriculture the type of small private ownership has changed and increasing needs for budget funding caused reform activities in all state forests. So broader concepts of forest policy will be needed in the future. Sustainability, the key issue of Central European silviculture, today is as 'modern' as it was in 1927. Heske's postulate of general continuity in all silvicultural procedure has survived. Ecological development is now seen as the basis of silviculture in sustainable multiple use forestry in Central Europe.

1 世界各国の森林資源問題と北米材の価格（特集 日本林業の国際環境-環境・資源・市場-(I)）

1 世界各国の森林資源問題と北米材の価格（特集 日本林業の国際環境-環境・資源・市場-(I)）

The Tropical Timber Trade and Sustainable Development

The tropical timber trade appears to have promoted neither sustained forest management nor sustained forest-based industrialization. The boom-and-bust export pattern is often blamed on demand by developed countries, high import barriers, and low international wood prices. In fact, it is rooted in tropical countries' own policies related to timber concessions and wood-processing industries. These policies suppress timber scarcity signals and must be revised if the trade is to promote sustained economic growth. Even if this is done, the trade may not promote sustained-yield forestry in individual countries.

Assessing Timber Availability in Upland Hardwood Forests

Abstract Reported forest inventory statistics gathered by the USDA Forest Service, Southern Forest Experiment Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis (SOFIA) have been criticized because not all of the inventory volume reported is truly available for harvest. In response to this criticism, a procedure has been developed for assessing timber availability from reported inventory statistics for upland hardwood forests. The procedure uses forest inventory and ownership statistics gathered by SOFIA, a stump-to-mill cost prediction model developed by the USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, and published wood price reports. Under the specific assumptions and conditions set forth in a demonstration of the procedure, a quarter of Tennessee's reported upland hardwood forest, containing about 40% of the reported inventory volume, was estimated to be available for harvest. The usefulness of the procedure in assessing available timber supplies for individual mills was also demonstrated. South. J. Appl. For. 16(2):82-88.

La Mise en Marché du Bois en Forêt Privée : Une Question d'Attitude?

The marketing of roundwood from private non-industrial forests is one of the main activity for the private woodlot owners. This article identifies factors influencing their negotiating power. The analysis of the Finnish roundwood marketing system focuses on the strategy taken by the private owners to increase their economics and social conditions. The success of the strategy lies in the flexibility of the selling process, the quality of information, the responsibilities of private owners' organisations and in the involvement of private owners in the forest industry. Securing a fair wood price and guaranteed wood sales create appropriate conditions for intensive forest management on small private woodlots. Key words: Roundwood marketing, attitude, negotiating power, selling processes, organisations' responsibilities, Co-op Metsäliitto, woodlot owners implication

Sawlog prices and quality differences in Canadian and United States Pacific coastal log markets

This paper introduces a methodology grounded on economic theory for comparing wood quality between regions. The methodology, which is based on index numbers, is applied to data on volumes and prices of sawlogs traded in the Canadian and United States Pacific Coastal Log Markets from 1957 through 1982. The quality of sawlogs traded was found to be higher on average in the United States than in Canada, but the U.S. advantage declined over time. The measure of wood quality is then used to adjust average log market prices for quality differences. Contrary to U.S. claims, the U.S. industry enjoyed a wood cost advantage during most of the sample period. The lower price of wood in Canada could be explained by its lower quality.

Use of wood energy in the United States — An opportunity

The use of wood for energy — including the burning of solid wood and black liquor from pulping — has been growing at a rate significantly greater than that for all other uses such as lumber, pulp, or particleboard. In the United States, the end of most wood is not lumber or pulp and paper but feed for energy. In 1983, 155·5 M Mg of wood were used for energy. This could threaten to increase the price of wood for those other uses, or it can stimulate us to seek more creative ways of using untapped wood resources for fuel. On the basis of estimates of heavy wood energy use relative to other uses for wood, and estimates of continuing high costs for fossil fuels, we suggest here the feasibility of meeting the demand for fuelwood through small-scale cooperatives. Such an approach can improve forestry practices and can avoid unduly increasing the cost of wood for other end uses.

Transition strategies for the forest sector

Because of limited wood resources the Scandinavian forest sector will soon have to make the transition from rapid to slow industrial growth. This will mean increased wood prices, excessive removals, increased centralisation, and reduced employment. The authors discuss the strategies available to cushion the effects of the transition, and the factors that should be taken into account when choosing a strategy. Their conclusions are based on a computer model which enables possible developments in the forest sector over the next 30–50 years to be simulated quickly.

Process Innovation and Changes in Industrial Energy Use

American industry in the 19th century switched from wood to coal as its primary energy resource. The history of this switch is reviewed, along with the history of preceding similar trends in Europe and later trends in the switch from coal to oil and gas. Important conceptual advances in the technology of such basic processes as glassmaking, cementmaking, and steelmaking emerged as the switch from wood to coal proceeded in the United States. These advances may have been more important than the relative prices of wood and coal in motivating the conversion of American industry to the use of coal. The historical role of process advances in determining the choice of energy resources suggests that the physics and chemistry of industrial processes may be as important an area of energy research as the various technologies of energy conversion.

Public Forest Policy, Wood Prices, and the Consumer

Abstract When the prices of consumer goods and services change, the effect on consumers is equivalent to a change in income, which may be distributed differentially to high- and low-income consumers. In dollar amount, an increase in log prices has the greatest effect on high-income consumers. In proportional terms, however, the reduction is a greater percent of total expenditures of low-income consumers. The same relation holds for reductions in log prices, except that their effects are equivalent to increases in consumer income.

Unmodified Forest Property Tax - Is It Fair?

Abstract Past theoretical arguments against unmodified forest property taxes have reinforced their historical unpopularity. Recent literature suggests that at any given tax rate, average property taxes as a percent of accrued annual income would not necessarily be any higher on forests than on other types of property. Nevertheless, it is still possible to show that, under certain conditions, unmodified property taxes may be more discouraging to forestry than to other land uses. Arguments about impacts hinge on the degree to which such taxes are shifted forward into higher wood prices or back into lower land values.

Analysis of Costs composing the Price of Pulp Wood (2)

Analysis of Costs composing the Price of Pulp Wood (2)