Can forestry be a competitive land use option?: Model simulations from humid tropical Costa Rica

Abstract

Model simulations are carried out to study options for managed natural forest and melina ( Gmelina arborea) and teak ( Tectona grandis) plantations on land suited for agriculture in the humid tropical Atlantic lowlands of Costa Rica. Tools used are a linear programming model that maximizes regional economic surplus, and the so-called technical coefficient generators that quantify input and outputs of forestry and competing crop and pasture-based beef cattle production systems. Model scenarios are carried out for varying prices of wood, beef and labor, under conditions of unlimited and restricted wood markets. Results indicate that teak and melina plantations are attractive land use options while managed natural forest is not. With unlimited wood demand, teak occupies 70% of the study area and total yearly teak production exceeds current Costa Rican wood consumption, indicating the need to include market mechanisms in the study. The area under teak is relatively insensitive to price changes between –40 and +60% of the base value of $95 m −3 (1996 stumpage price). The area under melina changes considerably with price changes of ±20% of the base value of US$16 m −3. Natural forest revenues must rise by 440% of the current $32 m −3 to make it economically more attractive than other land use options, especially pasture for beef production and melina plantations. Increasing labor costs are likely to favor tree plantations. Increasing beef prices considerably reduce the competitiveness of melina, though not that of teak.