Food Prices Research Articles

Impact of food price inflation on stunting in under five aged children in Bangladesh

BackgroundCurrently, food price inflation is a widespread issue in Bangladesh as well as the rest of the world. Malnutrition is a common issue among children that can have long-lasting effects on their development and overall health. There have been lots of studies conducted to identify the factors responsible for child malnutrition, but inflation is rarely considered a factor in child malnutrition. We aimed to determine the relationship between food price inflation and stunting (Height-for-Age Z-score (HAZ)) in children under five years of age in Bangladesh.MethodThe study utilized food price data from the World Food Programme database and malnutrition (stunting) information from the 2014 and 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys (BDHS). This includes the total study period from 2009 to 2018. Food prices were linked to the BDHS dataset using each child’s birth month. For each child, the average food prices from 9 months prior to 5 months post-birth, including their birth month, were recorded to calculate month-to-month inflation. This inflation was computed for rice (coarse), oil, wheat flour, and lentils by comparing the price sum of each item from one month to the previous month and dividing by the total price of the preceding month. A generalized linear regression model was used to assess the relationship between food price inflation and stunting, with stunting as the dependent variable. Other explanatory variables included wealth index, sex of the child, height, weight, mother’s education, respondent’s current pregnancy, and breastfeeding status.ResultsOur study has revealed that food price inflation has a significant negative effect on stunting, with a coefficient of -0.127 (p < 0.001). Furthermore, we have identified several other factors that have also significantly negative associations with stunting, including the wealth index (p < 0.001), mother’s education level (p < 0.001), mother’s pregnancy status (p < 0.001), breastfeeding (p < 0.001), child’s age (p < 0.001). child’s weight (p < 0.001) has significantly positive effect on stunting. However, we did not find any significant differences in stunting between boys and girls.ConclusionIn conclusion, the findings of this study underscore the significant negative impact of food price inflation on child stunting, emphasizing the need to acknowledge this factor alongside others. These results highlight the critical role of addressing food price inflation as a key determinant of stunting, in conjunction with various other contributing factors, in efforts to combat childhood malnutrition.

Application of environmentally extended input-output data to estimate greenhouse gas emissions attributable to packaged foods and beverages in Australia

Input-output tables for national economies are widely available and may provide an established mechanism for estimating environmental impacts of industry sectors. We used environmentally extended input-output (EEIO) analysis to estimate greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) for Australian packaged foods and beverages and compared the findings to those derived from life cycle analysis (LCA). GHGe intensities in purchaser prices were used alongside corresponding median prices per kilogram from NielsenIQ Homescan, a nationally representative database with food prices. Applying GHGe estimates to a 2019 Australian packaged food database, we reported median and interquartile range (IQR) GHGe per kilogram, comparing them with LCA-derived estimates. EEIO-derived intensities were estimated for 23,550 products, and the median overall GHGe based on EEIO data was 6.87 kg CO2eq / kg (IQR 4.20 to 10.5). LCA-derived estimates were comparatively lower, showing a median overall GHGe of 2.42 kg CO2eq / kg (IQR 1.41 to 5.00) using Poore and Nemecek data and 2.35 kg CO2eq / kg (IQR 1.24 to 4.53) using FoodSwitch. Despite differences in magnitude, EEIO-derived data discriminated between the highest emitting categories in alignment with the LCA-based approaches. Future work is required to understand the discrepancies and make the EEIO method a compelling alternative to LCA-based approaches.

The impact of COVID-19 on livelihood assets: a case study of high-value crop farmers in North-West Bangladesh

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a catastrophic impact on public health, extending to the food system and people's livelihoods worldwide, including Bangladesh. This study aimed to ascertain the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on livelihood assets in the North-Western areas (Rajshahi and Rangpur) of Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from 320 farmers engaged in high-value agriculture using a multistage sampling method. The data were analysed using first-order structural equation modelling. The findings reveal a significant impact (p < 0.01) of the pandemic on all livelihood assets in Bangladesh. Notably, human assets exhibited the highest impact, with a coefficient of 0.740, followed sequentially by financial (0.709), social (0.684), natural (0.600), physical (0.542), and psychological (0.537) assets. Government-imposed lockdowns and mobility restrictions were identified as the major causes of the pandemic's negative effects on livelihoods, which included lost income, rising food prices, decreased purchasing power, inadequate access to food and medical supplies, increased social insecurity, and a rise in depression, worry, and anxiety among farmers. The effects of COVID-19 and associated policy measures on the livelihoods of high-value crop farmers have reversed substantial economic and nutritional advances gained over the previous decade. This study suggests attention to the sustainable livelihoods of farmers through direct cash transfer and input incentive programs to minimize their vulnerability to a pandemic like COVID-19 or any other crisis in the future.

Field evaluation and characterization of a novel biostimulant for broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) cultivation under drought and salt stress which increases antioxidant, glucosinolate and phytohormone content

Anthropogenic global warming is affecting crop yield and thus compromising food security. Drought and salinization of the irrigation water or soil are increasingly frequent in most arable land, specifically in arid and semiarid areas such as the Mediterranean basin. Many crops have been displaced or their yield has plummeted in recent years, causing food shortages and price increases. In a context of global population growth and reduction in the availability of natural resources used in agriculture, finding novel tools that help farmers to maintain yield in an increasingly arid and saline scenario is of pivotal importance. This is particularly important in organic agriculture, where the number of available tools is very limited. Biostimulants are substances or microorganisms of natural origin whose function is to stimulate plant processes related to nutrient absorption, nutrient use efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stress or the quality of the agricultural products obtained. In the present work, we have evaluated, in field, the agronomic effectiveness of a novel biostimulant formulation in a cruciferous crop of great interest in the Mediterranean basin (broccoli) under control conditions, water and salt stress. Our research has shown that our product had a positive effect on broccoli production and in delaying flowering time. We have also found that the application of our biostimulant increased enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant defense under drought conditions. Similarly, when exposed to salinity, the biostimulant increased the concentration of different phytohormones and glucosinolates. Taken together, our biostimulant increases the tolerance of broccoli to salt stress and water limitation by increasing the antioxidant response, the level of glucosinolates and eliciting the hormonal response.

Individual and Environmental Determinants of the Consumption of Iron-Rich Foods among Senegalese Adolescent Girls: A Behavioural Model

To improve adolescent nutrition, it is crucial to understand factors underlying food behaviours. This study aims to identify pathways by which the environment and individual factors interact to affect the consumption of iron-rich food (IRF) among Senegalese adolescent girls in the hopes to reduce anemia. This is a cross-sectional study conducted among 600 adolescent girls (10–19 years old) of all 14 regions of Senegal. IRF consumption in the past day and night was evaluated using a food frequency questionnaire. Individual determinants, such as the attitude, the subjected norm, and the perceived behaviour control (PBC), and environmental determinants, such as food accessibility and price, were assessed using a validated and reliable questionnaire. Path analyses were conducted to examine relations between IRF consumption and individual and environmental variables. Overall, 83.7% of girls had the intention to eat IRF and 84.7% reported doing so. The PBC (β = 0.20, p &lt; 0.01) and the attitude (β = 0.57, p &lt; 0.01) predict the intention of consuming IRF daily. In turn, the environment predicts the attitude (β = −0.22, p &lt; 0.01) and the PBC (β = 0.26, p &lt; 0.01). The intention was a predictor of the IRF consumption (β = 0.16, p &lt; 0.05). This research provides guidance to nutrition education programmes as well as to improve the food environment to facilitate the consumption of IRF among adolescent girls by inspiring community health initiatives based on empirical data.

Sistem pangan dalam pertanian berkelanjutan

Background: Food systems have issues such as the governance and economics of food production, sustainability, how food is disposed of, how food production affects the environment, and the impacts on the health of individuals and populations from the food. Findings: Agriculture currently faces major challenges worldwide, including feeding a growing world population, managing ecosystem goods and services in response to a changing global environment, and reducing poverty. The food systems approach has been widely used to identify, analyze and assess the impacts of system activities and outcomes to help identify intervention points to improve food security. Methods: This study uses a case study with data sources through primary and secondary data supported by the interview technique used. Conclusions: Recommendations for a sustainable food system are made through the formation of a more detailed sustainable food system policy that looks at environmental, social and economic aspects; optimizing the use of local food by ensuring the availability of land and water; inclusive access as food; applying the concept of sustainability to the food system cycle from upstream to downstream; expanding the diversity of staple food types and ensuring quality and nutrition; developing food barns with local wisdom and involving the community; maintaining food prices in each value chain; forming a lifestyle of consuming food responsibly; and minimize food waste.

A Review of the Effect of Cleaner Energy Transition on Food Prices and Climate Change Mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Access to clean energy is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals, but investment in renewable energy has been unevenly distributed between developed and developing countries. Developed nations have seen significant growth in renewable energy investment since the Paris Agreement, while developing countries struggle to secure the necessary funds. This study focuses on Sub-Saharan Africa and explores the relationship between the transition to cleaner energy and its impact on food prices. Methods: By conducting a systematic literature review, the study highlights the challenges posed by investment disparities, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where financial constraints and infrastructural deficits hinder progress in clean energy infrastructure. Results: The findings suggest that, without appropriate policy reforms and consistent implementation, the transition to cleaner energy in the region may contribute to rising food prices and exacerbate food insecurity. Effective integration of agricultural and energy policies is essential to ensure that the energy transition supports food security objectives. Conclusion: Governments in Sub-Saharan Africa should prioritize policy reforms that promote renewable energy adoption while considering food security. Additionally, reintroducing transparent subsidy programs can help mitigate the impact of high energy costs during the transition to cleaner energy. This review emphasizes the importance of equitable investment and comprehensive policy strategies to balance renewable energy adoption with food security and economic equity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Parching for Principle: Hotel Boycotts in Regional Australia, 1901–20

This article serves as the first in-depth study of the nature, dynamics and growth of a set of consumer boycotts in early twentieth-century Australia. Labelled “beer strikes,” these targeted hotels over issues such as the price and quality of alcohol, food and accommodation, as well as the treatment of staff. The article examines how campaigners created and adapted a body of tactics and forms of organisation between 1901 and 1920, to the point where beer strikes became an established and recurring form of contestation. Identifying beer strikes as a primarily regional tactic, it also sheds new light on consumer activism outside of cities. It finds that beer strikes had continuities with other forms of working-class activism: making use of methods of organisation rooted in unions and in labour politics, and drawing on modern adaptions of ideas concerning “fair” prices and rightful compensation for work. It demonstrates that boycotts played a greater role in Australian working-class distributive and consumer struggles than has been previously acknowledged.

Monitoring the Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet within Countries: Building Systems in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Viet Nam

BackgroundGovernments around the world collect food price data on a frequent basis, often monthly, for the purpose of monitoring inflation. These routine economic data can be used with a nutrition-sensitive lens for understanding economic access to a healthy diet. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has adopted the cost and affordability of a healthy diet (CoAHD) for annual tracking alongside other food security indicators. This indicator is relevant in many countries for informed decision-making and accountability toward Food Systems Summit pathways. National governments may wish to include this indicator in their own monitoring systems, using existing subnational price and income data. ObjectivesWe describe emerging systems in several countries for monitoring CoAHD and analytical tools that facilitate the calculation of CoAHD. We discuss reasons why the indicator may differ when calculated using subnational data compared with the global monitoring system and how to interpret differences. MethodsBetween June 2016 and February 2024, 19 workshops were held in 7 countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Viet Nam), where stakeholder discussions covered sources of food price data, institutions involved, policy uses, and direct training in calculation of CoAHD. Food price data collected by national organizations were used to calculate CoAHD in partnership with government agencies. ResultsCalculating CoAHD using subnational data uses the same methods across settings, but the mechanisms for monitoring and dissemination are different in each country, illustrating heterogeneity in how the metric can most effectively be incorporated within existing structures. Results from national and global monitoring systems have expected differences based on data sources, healthy diet standards, and affordability standards. ConclusionsCoAHD can be calculated with existing data and resources, facilitated by new software tools and user tutorials. In the future, it can be further streamlined, leveraging technical assistance from global institutions and aligning national and global monitoring systems.

Poverty Impacts of the Pakistan Flood 2022

AbstractIn the summer of 2022, devastating floods hit Pakistan with a profound negative impact on lives and livelihoods. Apart from the irreconcilable loss of life, household welfare was negatively impacted through the loss of household income, loss of assets, and rising food prices. Yet, in the absence of just-in-time household survey data, evaluating the welfare impact is challenging, particularly in terms of estimating monetary poverty. This paper demonstrates how real-time satellite data, in combination with administrative data and historical household survey data, can be used to model the impact of floods on Pakistani households. In the context of data and time constraints, we present a practical methodology to simulate the expected impact of a natural disaster on monetary poverty from an ex-ante perspective. Estimates show that, as a direct consequence of the floods, the national poverty rate would increase by 4.0 to 4.3 percentage points, pushing around 9 million people below the national poverty line. Moreover, a spatially disaggregated analysis showed that the magnitude of shocks varied across locations and households depending on the intensity of the flooding and household characteristics. These estimates, which informed the Post Disaster Needs Assessment and were later used to frame the Donor Conference for Pakistan, provide an example of rapid modeling in the absence of real-time household survey data.

Food Inflation in Brazil in the Last Decade – Comparing Evolution Trends Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract The objective is to characterize food inflation in general and, particularly, the food items and agrifood chains, according to the level of exposure to foreign trade, degree of processing, and inflation indicators in nine metropolitan areas of Brazil between 2007 and 2022. Basically, the data used were surveyed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the Broad Consumer Price Index (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo, IPCA). The study fully characterized the food inflation in Brazil between 2007 and 2022, which was aggravated during the Covid-19 pandemic. Food-at-home inflation was generalized among its household components. Items associated with animal protein tended to put the most pressure on food-at-home prices. Among the agrifood chains, the lowest price variations were observed in products with greater exposure to foreign trade. A greater price variation was observed for fresh or minimally processed food products compared to more processed food products. Among the nine cities studied, from all regions of Brazil, no major differences were found in the variations of food prices of all groups considered.

PLANTS UNDER THE RISK DROUGHT AND DESERTIFICATION IN SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA (TURKEY)

This study examines the impact of climate change on the semiarid region of Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey, which borders the northern Arabian deserts. The region faces significant risks of desertification due to the expansion of arid zones, affecting precipitation, evaporation, water resources, and vegetation. The loss of biodiversity is already a critical issue, exacerbated by drought conditions. Agricultural productivity is threatened as drought reduces water availability, leading to lower yields and quality of crops. Economic consequences include increased food prices, farmer losses, and potential migration. The study aims to identify at-risk agricultural products and propose measures to combat drought and ensure food security. KEY WORDS: Climate change, drought, desertification, soil, evaporation, endangered species

Connection between climatic change and international food prices: evidence from robust long-range cross-correlation and variable-lag transfer entropy with sliding windows approach

As nations progress, the impact of climate change on food prices becomes increasingly substantial. While the influence of climate change on the yields of major agricultural products is widely recognized, its specific effect on food prices remains uncertain. This study delves into the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a well-established climate indicator, on global food prices. To accomplish this, a robust bivariate Hurst exponent (robust bHe) is applied. The study employs a sliding windows approach across various time scales to produce a color map of this coefficient, presenting a time-varying version. Furthermore, variable-lag transfer entropy with a sliding windows approach is utilized to discern causal relationships between the NAO index and international food prices. The findings reveal that significant increases in the NAO index are correlated with noteworthy upswings in various international food prices over both short and long-term periods. Additionally, variable-lag transfer entropy confirms the causal role of the NAO index in influencing international food prices.

Food deconsumption as part of a sustainable lifestyle: A study of Polish deconsumers

Deconsumption, defined as a wide spectrum of voluntary activities aimed at reducing consumption levels, is a multidimensional and multidisciplinary phenomenon, which concerns the reduction of goods and resources purchased, consumed, and used by consumers. The phenomenon could be manifested in a partial resignation from the purchase of products or possession of goods, reducing the consumption of resources or changing the current way of meeting needs. Deconsumption has numerous links with the concept of sustainable development, a trend that has gained importance in recent years as a response to excessive and unsustainable consumption and production. The purpose of this article is to examine and characterize the importance and interactions between food deconsumption — its forms (such as limiting consumption levels, eliminating food categories, etc.) and subjects (different food categories) — and the sustainable lifestyles of consumers. Empirical research was conducted in order to recognize consumer opinions and behaviors in the context of selected manifestations of deconsumption. The quantitative study was conducted in November 2021 on a sample of N = 516 Polish respondents using the CAWI technique and the authors’ own questionnaire. The respondents were asked about, among other things, the reduction of food consumption. The main hypothesis of the study was that deconsumption practices among Polish respondents are manifestations of their aspirations to live a sustainable lifestyle — for this purpose, a statistical hypothesis of no correlation between belonging to one of the groups of respondents (incidental, fragmentary, or lifestyle deconsumers) and food deconsumption practices was formulated and tested in a quantitative study. One in two respondents declared a reduction of food consumption in the twelve months preceding the survey. Health concerns were the second most common reason for food deconsumption, preceded by rising food prices, which highlighted the importance of motives of an economic and health nature over the others covered in the survey, and could therefore be attributed to sustainable practices relating to consumers’ lifestyles. The respondents gave up or limited the consumption of salty snacks, sweets, and ready meals to the highest degree. A relatively high percentage of respondents declared limiting the consumption of meat and cold cuts as well. The reduction of fish and seafood and dairy products consumption was observed to a slightly lesser extent. The results of the study revealed a relatively high consumer awareness of healthy eating, as well as care for health and a slim figure. This observation coincides with current consumer trends (care for health, conscious consumer, well-being, “health again”). Deconsumption in the researched study sample took also the form of dietary trends such as flexitarianism, vegetarianism, and veganism, which are gaining popularity nowadays.

Geopolitical risks, institutional environment, and food price inflation

ABSTRACT This study investigates the relationship between heightened geopolitical risks and food price inflation using a panel data model that includes 33 countries from 2001 to 2020. Key findings show that geopolitical risks significantly raise the level of food price inflation, with a more pronounced effect observed in developing countries, and a reduced effect in countries characterized by high levels of individualism and masculinity. Furthermore, the effect of geopolitical risks on food inflation is moderated during economic booms and amid climate change concerns. In addition, we find that countries with strong connections to major food producers experience less impact from geopolitical risks. The study concludes that geopolitical risks are a crucial factor in food price inflation, particularly for vulnerable countries, suggesting that they should incorporate geopolitical considerations into their economic policies and strengthen ties with major food producers to mitigate this risk.

Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020

This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks—deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased.

Pathways for the US food processing sector under economy-wide net zero in a multisector dynamic framework

The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO2-emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6 % of US industrial CO2 emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO2 scenario. We explore the implications for technology and fuel choice and go beyond to examine US food consumption, food prices, and land-use change. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other world regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy intensity pathways.We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies the majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ are achieved from 2020 to 2050 in a scenario in which the US reduces its food processing intensity to EU-15 levels.

Knowledge Based Millet Trainings for Sustainable Nutritional Security in the Tribal Communities of Andhra Pradesh

India, home to the world's largest tribal population of 10.43 crore as per the 2021 census, heavily relies on millet farming for food security in tribal communities. Millets, often termed Nutri-cereals or superfoods, are resilient to poor soil and harsh climates and provide essential nutrients like iron, calcium, and dietary fiber, addressing widespread nutritional deficiencies. Despite their advantages, millet farming faces significant challenges due to climate change, land degradation, water scarcity, and rising food prices. The research sampled with 240 women from three Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) in the Alluri Sitharamaraju (ASR) district was included for the study. Structured interview Schedule and a five-point continuum were used to evaluate the tribal women views towards training given on millet cultivation, post-harvest practices, and value addition techniques. Findings revealed a general positive response to the training, particularly in areas like field preparation and nutrient management. However, challenges persist, such as limited access to resources, modern processing equipment, and proper storage facilities. Addressing these issues is crucial for improving the livelihoods of tribal women and promoting sustainable agricultural practices. Enhanced infrastructure, timely financial support, and continuous capacity-building are essential for maximizing the benefits of millet farming in tribal areas, contributing to food security and economic development.

THE INFLUENCE OF VIRAL MARKETING, BRAND IMAGE, FOOD QUALITY AND FOOD PRICE MIX ON REPEAT ORDERS FOR GEN Z CONSUMERS IN MEDAN CITY

The objective of this study is to investigate how Viral Marketing, Brand Image, Food Quality, and Food Price affect Repeat Orders at Mixue Medan. This study falls under the category of quantitative research. The research will involve all customers who have bought items at Mixue in Medan City in 2022, a population too vast to quantify. With 18 question items in the research, a minimum of 90 samples will be needed. The findings from the study indicate that the initial hypothesis has been confirmed, namely Viral Marketing influences Repeat Orders at Mixue Medan, the second hypothesis is accepted, namely Brand Image influences Repeat Orders at Mixue Medan, the third hypothesis is accepted, namely Food Quality influences Repeat Orders at Mixue Medan, the fourth hypothesis is accepted, namely Food Price influences Repeat Orders in Mixue Medan and the fifth hypothesis is that Viral Marketing, Brand Image, Food Quality and Food Price influence Repeat Orders in Mixue Medan.

Food Tax Substitution Effects

Diet-related illness in the U.S. has risen to crisis levels, with today’s parents projected—for the first time—to enjoy longer lives than their children. Policymakers have responded with a range of novel proposals, many revolving around the assumption that increasing the relative price of unhealthful foods via taxes on soda, fat, sugar or caloric density will encourage more healthful eating. Yet there is little evidence that diet-targeted price interventions have had a meaningful impact on health outcomes. The reason for this, I argue, is both expected and largely overlooked in the academic and policy literatures: consumers have been motivated by price interventions to eat differently, but differently isn’t necessarily better. Price interventions created and crafted solely on the basis of the nutritional value of the targeted dietary item(s) are vulnerable to health-neutral substitution effects, wherein a price intervention motivates consumers to substitute items of similar dietary value—candy or beer for soda, for example—leading to little net change in overall dietary quality. This Article proposes a novel food tax strategy, one that focuses on substitution effects. Instead of targeting foods with the least or most nutritional value, legislators and other policymakers should direct taxes to foods with the least or most relatively healthful substitutes. As proof of concept, this Article introduces a specific substitution-based food tax proposal, supported with empirical results from an original randomized controlled trial: food taxes should seek to motivate substitution between grocery food and the relatively less healthful option of restaurant food. The health impact of such a shift will likely exceed that of a direct tax on soda, fat, sugar or calories given the high cross-elasticity of demand for restaurant food and its significant health inferiority. And because this shift may be accomplished by subsidizing groceries, by lowering taxes on groceries or by increasing taxes on restaurants, it presents a more politically flexible intervention than traditional consumer-side food taxes.