Preventive Interventions Research Articles

Short-term high-fat and high-carb diet effects on glucose metabolism and hedonic regulation in young healthy men.

Daily dietary intake of macronutrients and energy is closely associated with long-term metabolic health outcomes, but whether 24-h nutritional intervention under isocaloric conditions leads to changes in metabolism remains unclear. Moreover, the short-term effect of diets with different macronutrient composition on hedonic appetite regulation is less clear. This study examined the impact of an acute high-fat (F+) and high-carbohydrate (C+) diet on glucose metabolism and hedonic regulation of food intake in young healthy men under controlled conditions. Using a cross-over design, 19 male participants received a one-day isocaloric diet with different macronutrient composition (F+ = 11% carbohydrates, 74% fat; C+ = 79% carbohydrates, 6% fat) compared to a control diet (CON = 55% carbohydrates, 30% fat). Protein content was set at 15% of energy in all diets. The feeling of hunger, as well as "liking" and "wanting" for foods, was assessed through visual analog scales, and blood samples for glucose, insulin, and cortisol levels were assessed repeatedly during the experimental day. An intravenous glucose tolerance test was conducted the next morning. Postprandial glucose and insulin levels were lowest in F+ over the 24 h. Except for dinner, the CON diet showed the highest mean values in glucose. F+ diet improved insulin resistance, lowering Homeostatis Model Assessment Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) values. Changes in hedonic regulation of food intake were not observed during the intervention between the diets, except for higher feelings of satiety under the CON diet. An acute, isocaloric, high-fat diet improved insulin resistance even in healthy individuals but did not affect hedonic food intake regulation. Macronutrient composition modulate glucose metabolism even under short-term (24-h) and isocaloric diets, which should be considered for personalized preventive dietary treatments.

Evaluation of the common skin diseases in patients with malignancies and the cutaneous side effects of cancer treatments

Purpose The diversity of skin diseases in patients with malignancies leads to diagnostic difficulties and complicate cancer treatment. Furthermore, the increasing use of chemotherapy drugs and novel treatment regimens raises the risk of the development of various cutaneous side effects and the need for dermatologists during cancer management. We investigated the skin diseases in patients with malignancies and the cutaneous side effects of cancer treatments. Methods Medical records of cancer patients evaluated in the Dermatology clinic between July 2018 and April 2023 were retrospectively reviewed. Results This study included 872 cancer patients, 374 females and 498 males. Acute myeloid leukaemia was the most common malignancy, followed by multiple myeloma and invasive ductal breast carcinoma. Graft versus host disease was observed in 89 (10.2%) patients after stem cell transplantation and radiodermatitis developed in 16 (1.8%) patients. Maculopapular drug eruption and hand foot syndrome were the most common cutaneous side effects of chemotherapy drugs. Capecitabine was the most common etiologic agent in hand foot syndrome. Cellulitis was the most frequent bacterial infection in cancer patients, whereas herpes zoster was the most frequent viral infection. Among the chemotherapy drugs that caused acneiform drug eruption, cetuximab and cytarabine were notable. Facial erythema was associated with cytarabine use in 27.3% of patients. Conclusion Identifying the common skin diseases in cancer patients and cutaneous side effects due to chemotherapy drugs may help to take preventive measures, develop specific and effective treatments, determine the most appropriate cancer treatment options, and increase patients’ compliance with cancer treatment.

Profiles of Sexual Economic Exchanges among Women in Kisumu, Kenya: A Latent Class Analysis.

Sexual economic exchanges, including sex work and transactional sex, have been consistently associated with HIV acquisition among young women in sub-Saharan Africa. Heterogeneity in HIV vulnerability across overlapping types of sexual economic exchange has not been sufficiently explored, limiting appropriate and effective linkage to prevention interventions. From January 2017 to May 2018, cross-sectional data were captured at screening for entry into an HIV incidence cohort in Kisumu, Kenya. Men and women aged 18-35years completed a socio-behavioral questionnaire. Latent class analysis was used to classify sexually active women into discrete groups based on self-identification of occupational sex and other sexual exchanges, including exchange for money, gifts, food, school fees, substances, shelter/rent, and/or clothing. Profiles examined characteristics within and across typologies. Mixed logistic regression models assessed demographic and socio-behavioral characteristics associated with probabilistic class membership. A total of 1063 participants were screened, of whom 536 (50.4%) were sexually active women (median age: 27years [interquartile range 23-30]). Sexual economic exchange was reported by 403 (77.2%) sexually active women, who most commonly reported recent exchange of sex for money (73.9%), gifts (19.6%), food (25.9%), and substances (17.7%); 44.6% reported selling sex as a primary or secondary occupation. Three profiles of sexual economic exchange were identified, each with distinct demographic, behavioral, and occupational characteristics: exchange for money and other necessities (23.3% prevalence), exchange for primarily money (38.2% prevalence), and sex comprising limited or no exchange (38.4% prevalence). In mixture modeling, as compared to limited or no exchange, exchange for money and other necessities, and exchange for primarily money were both associated with increased age, higher number of partners, and partners at least 10years older. Heterogeneous patterns of sexual economic exchange were observed among women in Kenya reflect the different motivations and pathways by which women exchange sex. Female sex workers are often considered a homogeneous group, but these data highlight the need for differentiated services based on the diverse needs of women who engage in sexual economic exchange.

Exploring the Link between the Obesity and ADHD

Obesity is a chronic, multifactorial and recurrent disease. ADHD is a chronic neurodevelopmental disorder in early childhood. The core symptoms include attention deficit, hyperactivity/impulsivity and oppositional defiance. Research shows that there is a significant correlation between obesity and ADHD, and the probability of overweight and obese children suffering from ADHD is significantly higher than that of normal weight children. This paper discusses the association mechanism between ADHD and obesity from the perspectives of genetics, eating disorders, intestinal flora and poor physical exercise. At the same time, in view of the prevention and intervention of the comorbidity of ADHD and obesity, this paper also puts forward various means such as diet intervention, exercise prevention intervention and drug treatment. However, the relationship between obesity and ADHD is complex, and the comorbidity problem needs to be solved urgently. Establishing an effective early screening system, implementing targeted prevention and intervention measures, and strengthening public awareness and understanding of comorbidities are important ways to improve the quality of life of this group. Further research is needed in the future.

Prevalence and predictors of malaria in pregnant women in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Malaria remains a significant threat to pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to estimate the prevalence and identify predictors of malaria infection among pregnant women in the region. Following preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a comprehensive search of PubMed Central, Google Scholar, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, and Cochrane Library was conducted, including 15 studies published between 2013 and 2023. The pooled prevalence of malaria, calculated using a random-effects model, was 19.0% (95% CI: 0.13-0.26), with heterogeneity (I²=81.9%) reflecting geographical and climatic diversity. Prevalence rates ranged from 6.4% in Burkina Faso to 36.4% in Tanzania. Asymptomatic cases had a prevalence of 19.0% (95% CI: 0.10-0.38), while symptomatic cases were slightly lower at 17.0% (95% CI: 0.12-0.23). Predictors of malaria included maternal age, parity, insecticide-treated net usage, intermittent preventive treatment, trimester-specific risk, and education level. These findings underscore the need for targeted, context-specific interventions to mitigate malaria risk among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa and inform effective malaria control strategies.

Preventive interventions on vector-borne diseases related to climate change: an Umbrella review

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are a global challenge to public health, being influenced by ecological factors and climate change. Despite the several preventive public health interventions that can be implemented, the evidence of their impact is still fragmented. An organic overview of the current evidence can provide relevant information on the effectiveness of these actions. Methods We conducted an umbrella review following the PRIOR checklist. Relevant reviews were searched using PubMed and Cochrane databases. We considered eligible all systematic reviews published in English between 2013 and 2023, containing meta-analysis on public health interventions aimed at reducing incidence, prevalence, or the burden of disease of VBDs, without demographic restrictions. Results We screened 1971 records. 51 reviews were included. 38 reported outcomes targeting Malaria, 9 Dengue, 2 Yellow Fever, 1 Leishmaniasis,1 Zika, 1 Chikungunya, 1 Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, 1 Lyme disease and 1 Schistosomiasis. Several interventions were assessed worldwide. 18 reviews considered chemoprophylaxis, 9 net/curtains, 8 vaccines, 6 repellents, 3 housing interventions, 2 community participation, 2 MTaT and 2 oral supplementations. Authors stated conclusions are favourable to the interventions assessed for the 73%, but the certainty level is mostly considered low. Conclusions Public health preventive interventions are fundamental in responding to the threat of VBDs, but their impact may vary depending on several factors. Further research must provide more effective interventions and strategies, with a cohesive presentation of their evidence. Key messages • Effective reduction of VBDs burden requires a combination of interventions that must be tailored to local ecological, social, and epidemiological factors. • Evidence presented in this umbrella review can inform evidence-based policies and programs aimed at combating VBDs at local, national, and global levels.

Atrial fibrillation, prevention and rehabilitation in a primary healthcare setting. A feasibility study

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) often influences daily life with symptoms like palpitations, dyspnoea, fatigue, fear and anxiety. Research show that patients with AF benefit from prevention and rehabilitation interventions. However, evidence is scarce and mainly hospital-based, and it is unknown whether the transition to the primary healthcare sector gives the same positive results. In 2019, a Danish primary care Health Center and the cardiology department at the local hospital completed a multidimensional prevention and rehabilitation intervention for patients with AF. Purpose To investigate the feasibility of delivering a multidimensional prevention and rehabilitation intervention for patients with AF in a primary care Health Center. Methods This study was a mixed-methods, non-randomized, intervention, feasibility study. A convergent mixed-methods design was used, and results were illustrated in side-by-side joint displays. Patients were included at a Hospital AF clinic referring to the Health Center. The prevention and rehabilitation intervention consisted of risk factor management, patient education, physical activity and yoga. Two patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) were used, the HeartQoL measuring health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) measuring symptoms of anxiety and depression. Data were collected at baseline (T0), at end of intervention (T1), and at two-months follow-up (T2) and analysed descriptively. Focus group interviews were analysed thematically and covered experiences of participating, needs and preferences, outcomes and feasibility of collecting PROMs. The reporting was guided by the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) extension to pilot and feasibility trials. Results 43 patients (53% women; median age 66 (range 52-81) years) completed the intervention. Table 1 shows that HRQoL increased, and symptoms of anxiety and depression decreased. These results maintained at follow-up. Figure 1 shows the qualitative themes. Patients experienced being understood and supported by health professionals and peers. They thought it difficult to know what their needs were. However, some patients had specific preferences for interventions. For changes in outcomes, the patients identified that gaining tools and knowledge about the disease from the interventions helped. It was feasible to collect PROMs during the intervention and finally, the patients had an attention to what comes next, when finishing the intervention in the primary care setting. Conclusion It was feasible to deliver a multidimensional prevention and rehabilitation intervention for patients with AF at a primary care Health Center. HRQoL increased and symptoms of anxiety and depression decreased. The patients experienced being supported and gaining tools and knowledge to handle AF. Future large randomized controlled trials must confirm these results.

Long-term continuation to pharmacological treatment for secondary prevention after a myocardial infarction: a register study

Abstract Background Pharmacological treatment for secondary prevention after acute myocardial infarction (MI) is crucial to prevent new events. Several studies report inconsistence and need for improvement of pharmacological treatment. Study follow-up is often less than 10 years and showing that continuation to drug treatment decreases with time. Objective To study long-term follow-up of nationally guideline recommended medical therapy (GDMT) for secondary prevention after a myocardial infarction. Method The study population consisted of individuals aged 18-84 years, who were hospitalized for a MI between January 2006 and December 2022 and were followed up to 16 years. The study subjects were identified through the National Inpatient Register and linked to the Prescribed Drug Register. Four classes of drugs were analyzed: antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy, lowering therapy, betablockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB). Time-updated survival analyses were used to investigate the relationship between continuation of preventive pharmacological treatment and mortality and recurrent MI after an acute MI. Results A total number of 139 413 individuals (mean age 69.1±10.6) were included and 33.3% were female. At baseline 51.2% had hypertension, 21.5% diabetes mellitus and 15.2% heart failure. All prescriptions of GDMT were decreased significantly after hospitalization after MI and during first years and remained plateau (figure 1). During follow-up 55487 persons died (39.8%, event rate 5.81 per 100 person years [95% CI 5.76-5.86]). Medication with antiplatelets/anticoagulantia, ACEi/ARB and statins decreased risk of all cause-mortality and myocardial infarction [HR 0.83 [95% CI 0.79-0.86], p-value <0.001, HR 0,79 [95% CI 0.77-0.83], p-value <0.001, HR 0.70 [95% CI 0.67-0.73], p-value <0.001) respectively. Conclusion Pharmacological treatment as a part of secondary prevention remained greatly underutilized both shortly and during long-term after MI. Usage of antiplatelets or antigulantia, ACEi or ARB and statins decreased the risk of all-cause mortality and recurrent myocardial infarction.

Social Cohesion in Different Periods of the Pandemic: What Works in Reducing COVID-19 Mortality

Abstract Background Inconsistent results were reported regarding the effects of social cohesion dimensions on COVID-19 mortality rate (MR). Most studies have indicated that trust in civil services, but not participating in social activities, reduces COVID-19 MR, possibly because of the highly contagious nature of this disease. In this study, we investigated how the effects of various dimensions of social cohesion on COVID-19 MR vary across different phases of the pandemic. Methods This longitudinal study was conducted using data from 86 countries that participated in the 2017-2020 World Values Survey. The measures of social cohesion were identified by aggregating survey responses to the country level. COVID-19 MR was calculated-using data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control-separately for three distinct periods during the pandemic (January 2021-June 2022). A factor analysis was conducted to identify the dimensions of social cohesion, and negative binomial regression models were constructed to analyze data for each period. Results The factor analysis revealed three dimensions of social cohesion: social participation and inclusion, health service equality, and trust in civil services and democracy. Our findings suggest that each dimension of social cohesion uniquely affected COVID-19 outcomes in different periods of the pandemic. Trust in civil services and a positive attitude toward democracy are strongly associated with a low COVID-19 MR. However, this association was observed only in the early and middle stages of the pandemic. By contrast, our study demonstrated that in the late stage of the pandemic, increased social participation and inclusion helped combat COVID-19. Conclusions This study underscores the importance of collective cohesion and solidarity in mobilizing public responses against pandemic situations. This study emphasizes that preventive or regulatory interventions should be tailored to different phases of a pandemic. Key messages • COVID-19 mortality rate was negatively associated with trust in civil services during the early two periods and with social participation and social inclusion during the late period of the pandemic. • This study emphasizes that preventive or regulatory interventions should be tailored to different phases of a pandemic.

Facilitating subgroup identification: the use of decision trees in breast cancer screening uptake

Abstract Introduction Organized breast cancer screening (BCS) programs are effective prevention measures for women aged 50-69 to prevent the sixth cause of death in Germany. It is unclear which sociodemographic factors and potential interactions are associated with never-attendance. Explorative approaches such as decision trees offer an inductive approach to intersectional subgroup identification based on different computational decisions. This study discusses two approaches for estimating the likelihood of not attending BCS in Germany. Methods Women aged 50-69 (N = 3,644) were selected from the German 2020 European Health Interview Survey. We estimate the risk of not attending BCS first by employing cross-classification regression analysis utilising known social dimensions and second by leveraging the nodes of the best-performing decision tree as exposure variables. Results The first approach, adjusting for age, found that women born in Germany had 1.97 higher odds (p = 0.015) of never attending BCS than high-income women not born in Germany. Conditional Inference Tree (mincriterion= 0.6040046, maxdepth=3) adjusted to optimise sensitivity and the Area Under the Curve (71.43% sensitivity, 63.21% AUC), identified 8 relevant intersectional groups characterised by unique combinations of family status, perceived social support, working situation, experienced physical limitation, and region, with the highest odds of 4.85 (p < 0.001) of not attending BCS for women living with their couple and children or non-conventional household constellations who perceived little, uncertain or a lot of social support. Conclusions Using explorative decision trees for subgroup identification, the study provides more detailed insights into women at higher risk of not attending BCS in Germany, aiding, on the one hand, more precise health reporting data and, on the other hand, enhanced preventive public health interventions. Key messages • Explorative decision trees for subgroup identification allow for more detailed insights into women at higher risk of not attending BCS in Germany for enhanced preventive public health interventions. • Women living with their couple and children or non-conventional constellations who perceived little, uncertain or a lot of social support are at the highest odds of never attending BCS in Germany.

A review on efficacy of polygenic risk score information on behavioral change and clinical outcomes

Abstract Background Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) represents a promising advancement in personalized medicine, enabling the inherited risk assessment for disease outcomes based on the effect of various common genetic variants. The utilization of PRS information to promote the adoption of healthier behaviors has witnessed an increase interest in recent years, but its full potential still needs to be fully addressed. Methods This systematic review aims to assess the efficacy of disclosing PRS information on individuals’ engagement in risk-reducing interventions. CENTRAL database has been searched up to December 2023 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the disclosure of PRS results, with scenarios where other or no information is provided. We performed a preliminary meta-analysis on the mean difference of clinical and psychological outcomes between the two arms. Results Out of 4419 results, we included 12 studies. Trials focused on primary (83%), secondary (8%) and tertiary (8%) preventive interventions. As for the possible diseases predicted by the PRS, cardiovascular diseases (33%) were the most common (n = 4), along with cancers (33%), diabetes (25%) and metabolic disease (8%). PRS result disclosure was compared to standard care (n = 7), no information provided (n = 4), and family risk (n = 1). By pooling data from four comparable studies, we report a reduction in the mean difference for LDL cholesterol in the intervention group of -6.39mg/dL (95%CI -10.09, -2.70, I²=0%, p < 0.001). No significant changes were observed for systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and weight, in 3 studies and 4 analyzed studies, respectively. An increase in anxiety levels was observed towards the PRS group in 4 studies (SMD 0.24, 95%CI 0.02, 0.46, I² = 66%, p = 0.03). Conclusions Preliminary analysis show small or no effects of PRS disclosure on intermediate health or psychological outcomes. Larger trials assessing the potentiality of PRS disclosure are still needed. Key messages • From the analysis of twelve preventive trials on the efficacy of PRS on behavior change, we report a positive effect on LDL cholesterol reduction. • Larger well conducted trials are needed to integrate PRS-based information into future preventive strategies.

Climate Change Impacts on Respiratory Health: Bridging Inequalities in Children and Adults

Abstract Respiratory diseases rank as the third leading global cause of mortality, with climate change exacerbating their prevalence and severity. Wild fires, floods, extreme heat events, infectious diseases, urban air pollution and aeroallergen exposure contribute to respiratory health deterioration. Vulnerable populations, including individuals with pre-existing lung conditions and children, bear a disproportionate burden of these effects. We centrepiece the connection of climate change to respiratory health inequalities, while bridging the evidence gap regarding increasing extreme heat and cold events, ambient and indoor air pollution exposure with significant ramifications on respiratory health. Specifically, we will showcase research on the tailored, multidisciplinary NCD prevention package named FRESHAIR4Life, targeting air pollution exposure in mid- to late adolescents from disadvantaged populations. Given the high burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and air pollution exposure as major contributors, urgent preventive interventions are required, particularly in disadvantaged populations. Initiating preventive interventions during adolescence is considered an optimal window of opportunity for long-term health benefits. Furthermore, we will present a robust evidence base delineating climate change’s impact on lung health among vulnerable European populations. We will discuss how narratives on climate-induced lung health issues are co-created with affected communities and stakeholders to facilitate policy translation. The aim of these presentations is to break silos among health professionals, fostering collaboration from the respiratory community to the public health community. Through lung health collaborations we seek to deepen understanding and catalyze action to address the intersection of climate change, respiratory health, and inequalities, ultimately working towards a healthier and more equitable health for all.

Cardiovascular mortality rate between 2018 and 2022 in Kyrgyz Republic

Abstract Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the number one cause of death in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Kyrgyz Republic. According to official statistics, CVD ranks first in the structure of overall mortality, accounting for more than half (52.1% according to 2022 data) of all deaths. Purpose to analyze the cardiovascular mortality rate in the Kyrgyz Republic, from 2018 to 2022. Methods Medical and statistical information on mortality from CVD in the population was obtained from the Centre for Electronic Health (CEH) of the Ministry of Health. To conduct a comparative analysis, relative indicators per 100 thousand population were calculated. A retrospective epidemiological study of mortality from CVD including different nosological forms over period for 2018–2022 was conducted, calculating the rate of increase (decrease). An analysis of the epidemiological situation of the disease in nine administrative-territorial units of the Kyrgyz Republic was also carried out with the calculation of the average 5-year mortality ratefor the period from 2018 to 2022. Results Despite the decrease in morbidity, a high proportion of mortality from CVD remains in all years, more than 50%. In terms of the percentage indicator for recent years, all this time it has maintained the highest position, in contrast to diseases of other organs and systems. In the last decade, from 2012 until 2020, there was a gradual decrease in the mortality rate. Since 2020, we have seen a sharp increase in the CVD mortality rate per 100 thousand population by 19.6% compared to 2018, by 19.4% since 2019, which is associated with the influence of Covid-19 pandemic, in 2021 this indicator amounted to 297.6 cases, in 2022 - 234.5. The main contribution to population death from CVD is made by coronary heart disease (65.90%), including acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular diseases (21.4%), arterial hypertension (5.9%). If we analyze the mortality rate from CVD by nine administrative-territorial units, the highest rates in 2022 are observed in the Chui and Talas regions, 291.9 and 266.3 per 100 thousand population respectively; the lowest in the Osh region (207.3), Osh city (196.1) and Bishkek (208.6), which is explained by the better organization of health services in these areas. Conclusion CVD remains the main cause of mortality in the population of the Kyrgyz Republic. Although over the past year there has been a good decline in this indicator, in almost all regions, particularly the greatest successes have been achieved in Naryn and Issyk-Kul regions. In connection with the above, there is requirement for a clear identification of priorities when determining the strategy of treatment and preventive interventions. It is necessary to create an effective National system of care for patients with CVD with a focus on emergency cardiac care and prevention issues.

Frailty and quality of life in italian older adults: implications for public health interventions

Abstract Background The increasing focus on frailty in older adults underscores the significance of a timely multidimensional assessments and early detection to avert adverse outcomes. The primary aim is to integrate digital technologies, specifically online assessment tools, for the identification of frailty and the assessment of Quality of Life (QoL) in elderly individuals. Methods A nationwide multicentric study was conducted. Seven Italian centers and regions evaluated frailty in older adults residing in the community, through a prospective observational cohort study. The chosen questionnaires, Sunfrail+ and SF-12, were implemented through an easily accessible online tool, swiftly generating final scores for each test. The cross-sectional analysis included 503 older adults. The cut off to define a person “frail” is 3 positive alerts in Sunfrail baseline items, according to the literature. Results In this sample an average of 2.31 positive alerts were generated. Significant associations were established between the number of positive warnings and SF-12 physical and mental indexes, indicated by X2=53.1 (p < 0.001) and X2=25.1 (p < 0.001), respectively. The difference between two groups (frail and not frail) in relation to QoL is statistical significantly (U di Mann Whithney p < 0.001). Mean QoL mental and physical indexes are 46.3 and 39.3 in frailty group, versus 51.7 and 46.5 in non frailty group, respectively. The correlation is conceptually consistent: as frailty increases, QoL decreases. Conclusions The frailty assessment associated with the QoL assessment provides relevant information to monitor the impact of prevention interventions at community level. The assessment of frailty leads the prevention intervention whose impact could be assessed also through QoL tools. This study underlines a meaningful association between assessment tools, substantiated by conceptual correlations. Key messages • Sunfrail and SF-12 are easily accessible online tool useful for identification of frailty and the assessment of Quality of Life (QoL) in elderly individuals. • The older population in Europe is increasing a timely assessment of frailty must be a public health priority.

Cardiovascular disease risk in people with diabetes in the era of universal diabetes screening

Abstract Background/Introduction Traditionally, most people with diabetes have been considered at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and CVD preventive treatment has been recommended for almost all patients after diagnosis. However, guidelines are increasingly recommending a more stratified approach to preventive treatment informed by predicted CVD risk. In the early 2000’s, New Zealand initiated the world-first national diabetes screening programme, as a component of a national CVD risk assessment programme, and by 2016, approximately 90% of eligible New Zealand adults had been screened. We hypothesised that in the era of universal diabetes screening, many recently diagnosed patients will be at low CVD risk and that contemporary CVD risk prediction equations would be required to accurately assess their risk. Purpose We aimed to develop sex-specific 5-year CVD risk prediction models in people with diabetes in New Zealand using a contemporary natural-population based cohort, and to characterise the distribution of CVD risk. Methods De-identified individual-level linkage of multiple health administrative datasets was undertaken to establish a cohort of almost all adults with diabetes in the northern region of New Zealand (one-third of the national population), without CVD or heart failure, and aged 30–74 years on January 1, 2014, with follow-up linkage to hospitalisations and mortality until December 31, 2018. Sex-specific models were developed to estimate the 5-year risk of CVD hospitalisation or death, with 15 pre-defined predictors, including sociodemographic variables, diabetes-related and renal function measures. Results 64,645 participants (median age: 57 years [IQR: 49–65]) were included in the final cohort, of whom 4,992 had first CVD events during 301,272 person-years follow-up. Models calibrated well in both women and men (Figure 1). Overall, increasing age; high deprivation level; smoking-related hospitalisations or use of smoking cessation medications; history of atrial fibrillation; high levels of haemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio; use of blood pressure-lowering medications and insulin were associated with elevated CVD risk. Median 5-year CVD risks were 4.9% (IQR: 2.9%–8.1%) in women and 7.7% (4.8%–12.0%) in men. There was a wide range of predicted 5-year CVD risk, with 51% of women and 27% of men having a predicted risk below 5%, and 6% of women and 16% of men having a risk of 15% or above (Figure 2). Conclusions This study demonstrated marked heterogeneity in predicted CVD risk in people with diabetes in an era of universal diabetes screening. As diabetes screening is increasingly undertaken as part of a routine CVD risk assessment, these findings will have important clinical implications for accurately targeting new but expensive CVD preventive medications to the highest risk patients.

Investigation of age-related in-hospital outcomes of left atrial appendage occlusion in germany

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to assess demographics, in-hospital mortality and baseline characteristics of hospital cases with a left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) procedure in relation to patient age. Methods This is a retrospective observational analysis of all German in-hospital cases from 2016 to 2022 with a coded LAAO procedure using the Diagnose Related Groups (DRG) statistics database of the Research Data Center of the Federal Statistical Office. Results In total 40435 cases were observed in the investigated time period. Over the 5 years studied we found a significant shift towards an older patient collective. Compared to 28,3% in 2016, in 2022 40,1% of all patients were over 80 years of age (a rise of 152 %). Cases of patients with over 85 years of age increased from 7.7 % to 11.4 % during the same time period. We observed an in-hospital death rate for patients <70, 70-75, 80-85 and >85 years of age in 0.8, 1.0, 1.4 and 2.2 % respectively. Further we saw significant higher rates of intensified care treatment, pericardial effusion, acute kidney injury and red blood cell transfusion for patients >80 years of age. In unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models age was significantly associated with a higher rate of in-hospital death. Conclusions In this study we present real world data from a health-care-system level. Our main findings were an increasing age in patients undergoing LAAO procedures and an independent association of age with in-house mortality and complications. This data provides a further basis to balance risks and benefits of LAAO procedure as a preventive treatment.

Incident HFpEF and time-dependent changes in markers of LVDD severity in women and men with pre-clinical LVDD

Abstract Background Over time, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) can progress towards heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Yet, the identification of those at high risk of progression is challenging, and guidance on follow-up or preventive treatment is lacking. Purpose To study the incidence of HFpEF and changes over time in markers of LVDD severity in women and men with pre-clinical LVDD. In addition, we evaluate whether blood pressure and kidney function affect progression of LVDD. Methods We reinvited 146 participants from the HELPFul study (58% women and 42% men) with pre-clinical LVDD after a median follow-up of 4.3 [IQR: 3.9-4.7] years (Figure 1). The follow-up measurements were similar to baseline and encompassed a structured interview, physical examination, blood draw, electrocardiogram and (exercise) echocardiography. We determined HFpEF incidence and report changes over time in cardiovascular risk factors as well as echocardiographic characteristics and biomarkers of LVDD. Additionally, we studied whether changes in blood pressure and kidney function affected LVDD progression using generalized mixed models. LVDD progression was defined as an increase in plasma NT-proBNP levels and HFA-PEFF major functional and morphological abnormalities. All analyses were performed for women and men combined as well as stratified by sex. Results Fifteen (10%) of the 146 participants developed HF of whom 13 had HFpEF (9 women and 4 men) during follow-up. Over time, systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels remained stable while mean kidney function (eGFR) declined from 89±14 to 81±17 mL/min/1.73m2. Median NT-proBNP plasma levels increased from 71 [IQR: 44, 120] to 100 [IQR: 51, 157] pg/mL. The prevalence of major functional abnormalities according to the HFA-PEFF score increased from 84 to 91%, while the prevalence of morphological abnormalities increased from 25% to 39% (Figure 2). A higher systolic blood pressure in women and a higher diastolic blood pressure in men was associated with an increase in NT-proBNP plasma levels over time. Additionally, lower eGFR levels were related to increased NT-proBNP plasma levels over time in both men and women. There was a significant rise in the prevalence of major functional and morphological abnormalities with time, but blood pressure and kidney function did not affect this change over time. Conclusions A small proportion of women and men with preclinical LVDD developed incident HF over a 5-year follow-up period. High blood pressure and reduced kidney function were associated with increased levels of NT-proBNP over time. This highlights the need to further explore cardiorenal protection as a method to prevent HFpEF.Study design and HF outcomesLongitudinal changes in LVDD markers

Heart rate variability to predict 1-day atrial fibrillation episode onset using machine learning

Abstract Background Studies using AI assessment of 10-second 12-lead ECG suggest that it provides incremental identification of AF risk compared with clinical scores. However, it is not clear what preventive treatment should be given as the exact time of AF onset remains unknown. The use of machine learning (ML) with 2-lead Holter ECG allows the development of predictive models for paroxysmal AF within a short time window, potentially allowing an optimised pill-in-the-pocket (PITP)-like strategy. Aim To identify patients who are still in sinus rhythm but will develop an episode of AF in the next few hours using 24-hour Holter recordings and ML. Materials and methods We created a new database of 95871 Holter recordings that were manually analysed. We identified 1319 paroxysmal AF episodes from 872 patients. A total of 835 AF episodes from 506 recordings had more than 60 minutes of normal sinus rhythm (NSR) before AF onset and more than 10 minutes of AF after onset, and a total of 964 AF episodes had 30 minutes or more of NSR before AF onset. Patients were divided into five groups: all patients, patients younger than 60 years, 60-70 years, 70-80 years, and older than 80 years. A total of 365 recordings from 347 patients without rhythm abnormalities were identified and classified in our database, from which we took two ECG windows. We used a gradient-boosted decision tree model with heart rate variability (HRV) parameters as input. Results The most significant results were obtained from recordings with more than 5 minutes of AF with an AUROC of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.879-0.958) and an AUPRC of 0.919 (0.879-0.958) 15H08 ± 13H05 hours before the onset of AF (Figures 1 - 2). Using a threshold of 0.5, the accuracy was 84.5% (81.2-87.8), the sensitivity was 83.0% (79.5-86.4), the specificity was 86.6% (79.3-93.9), the PPV was 90.2% (85.5-94.9), the NPV was 78.4% (74.7-82.1) and the F1 score was 86.2% (83.5-89.0) for all patients. Conclusion These results suggest that the most important information for short-term prediction of AF onset is contained in HRV, allowing a preventive strategy. This could be exploited by wearables in mHealth allowing the use of a PITP-like preventive strategy to reduce the burden of AF. Prospective studies are needed to confirm the encouraging potential of these findings.AUROC of the XGBoost modelPrecision-recall curves

The comparison of short-term dual antiplatelet therapy versus standard dual antiplatelet therapy in elderly patients with coronary artery disease who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention

Abstract Introduction Elderly patients are likely to have more underlying risk factors for bleeding and the bleeding risk increases with age although dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT) is mandatory for patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for prevention of ischemic events. Therefore, elderly patients aged 75 or older are included as minor criteria for high bleeding risk, as defined by the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk criteria. However, only limited data have been investigated of optimal duration of DAPT for patients aged 75 or older. Purpose The aim of this study is to evaluate optimal DAPT duration for elderly patients aged 75 and older. Methods We selected 1,571 patients aged 75 and older with coronary artery disease (CAD) from the pooled database among the 5 randomized controlled trials related to DAPT duration after PCI. DAPT was consisted of clopidogrel or ticagrelor in addition to aspirin. Short-term DAPT duration was defined as 1 to 3months, and standard DAPT duration was defined as 6 to 12months after PCI. Primary outcomes were net clinical adverse outcomes (NACE), composite of major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular adverse outcomes (MACCE) and TIMI major bleeding at 1 year. The inversed probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was performed to minimize selection bias effects of pooled database. Results The NACE was not significantly different between the short-term DAPT group (3.9%) and standard DAPT group (7.6%) (HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.46-1.04; p=0.076) (Figure A). Moreover, MACCE was not different in both groups. However, the significant reduction of bleeding risk was observed in short-term DAPT group (1.4%) than standard DAPT group (3.4%) (hazard ratio (HR): 0.40, 95% confidential interval (CI): 0.19-0.83; p=0.015) (Figure B). These results were consistent after multivariable Cox regression analysis and IPTW analysis. Conclusions Short-term DAPT duration (1 to 3months) was found to be superior to standard DAPT duration (6 to 12months) in terms of bleeding outcomes without the increased ischemic outcomes in patients aged 75 or older with CAD who underwent PCI.

Health burden and economic costs of vector-borne diseases in Italy: the AUSL Romagna case

Abstract Introduction Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are a serious threat for global health, representing around 17% of communicable diseases and more than 700.000 deaths every year. In Europe, and especially in Italy, this is a subject of growing concern, due to the increase of VBDs outbreaks that need vector control plans. Objectives Evaluate the 2013-2022 trend of VBD outbreaks within the AUSL Romagna area (provinces of Ravenna, Rimini, and Forlì-Cesena, in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy) and the economic impact caused by hospitalizations and local prevention/disinfestation treatments. Methods We used aggregated and anonymized data from 3 informative systems: communicable disease system (SMI) for VBD prevalence; hospital discharge records (SDO) for hospitalizations, with a contribution of the VBD-related Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG); municipality records regarding the cost of dedicated interventions for vector prevention and disinfestation, communicated to the Emilia-Romagna Region. Results For the area of interest, 479 cases of VBDs were notified from 2013 to 2022, with a slight increasing trend over the years. Through hospital SDOs, 252 cases were identified with a diagnosis of VBD, plus 283 with a VBD-related DRG, with a total expenditure of €9.587.777. The distribution was not uniform between the provinces, Ravenna having the highest expense. The municipality records highlighted expenses for €95.443 for prevention and control interventions against mosquitoes, with a very variable trend over the period considered. Forlì had the highest expense. Conclusions VBDs show a highly variable trend and distribution during time, also in relatively small, sub-regional areas. The Emilia-Romagna regional plan against arboviruses, annually updated, can contribute to reduce this specific health and economic burden, lowering transmission among the population and resulting hospital pressure, thanks to prevention and timely interventions. Key messages • The use of information systems enables monitoring of the impact of arboviruses, as well as the related cost for hospital care and local treatments. • Putting in place an effective and updated plan against arboviruses, like the Emilia-Romagna Region one, helps managing VBDs and mitigating economic costs.