Preventive Control Strategy Research Articles

Molecular characterization of variant infectious bronchitis virus in China, 2019: Implications for control programmes.

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), an ongoing emergence enveloped virus with a single‐stranded positive‐sense RNA genome, belongs to the Gammacoronavirus genus in the Coronaviridae family. IBV‐associated tracheitis, nephritis, salpingitis, proventriculitis and egg drop have caused devastating economic losses to poultry industry worldwide. Since the end of 2018, a remarkably increasing number of commercial broilers and layers, vaccinated or not, were infected with IBV in China. Here, we described two IB outbreaks with severe respiratory system or kidney injury in IBV‐vaccinated commercial poultry farms in central China. Other possible causative viral pathogens, including avian influenza virus (AIV), Newcastle disease virus (NDV) and Kedah fatal kidney syndrome virus (KFKSV), were excluded by reverse transcription‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR), and three virulent IBV strains, HeN‐1/China/2019, HeN‐2/China/2019 and HeN‐101/China/2019, were identified. Although the gross pathologic appearance of these two IB outbreaks was different, the newly identified IBV strains were all closely related to the ck/China/I0529/17 strain and grouped into GI‐19 genotype clade based on the sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the complete S1 genes. Moreover, there are still some evolutionary distance between the newly identified IBV strains, HeN‐101/China/2019 in particular, and other GI‐19 strains, suggesting that Chinese IBV strains constantly emerge and evolve towards different directions. In conclusion, this study provided an insight of the recently emerging IBV outbreaks in IBV‐vaccinated commercial poultry farms and identified the genetic characteristics of three virulent GI‐19 IBV strains, which shows the need to carry out proper preventive measures and control strategies.

Ambient air pollution and daily hospital admissions for respiratory system–related diseases in a heavy polluted city in Northeast China

Respiratory disease admission has been increasing in the recent 5years due to heavy air pollutions and bad weather conditions in China. We investigated the short-term association of ambient air pollution with daily counts of hospital admissions due to respiratory infection diseases with stratified analysis by age (0-18, 19-65, and > 65years old), gender (male, female), season (spring, summer, autumn, winter), and disease type (lung infections, asthma, COPD (chronic obstructive disease), URI (upper respiratory infections)) in heavy polluted city of Shenyang in China. Daily ambient air pollution concentrations, weather conditions, and hospital admission counts for 53months (from November 1, 2013 to March 25, 2018) were extracted from related authorities in electronic databases. Associations between outdoor air pollution levels and hospital admissions were estimated for time lags of 0-7days using quasi-Poisson additive regression models, adjusted for meteorological variables, holidays, day of week, and season, as well as eliminating autocorrelations. Single pollutant analysis results showed lung infection diseases were related to all pollutant concentration change with no lag effects. After adjusting for other pollutants and confounding factors, we found NO2 was associated with daily admissions of lung infections (ER = 6.75%, 95% CI 1.24, 12.55), asthma (ER = 20.36%, 95% CI 4.26, 38.95; lag day 5, ER = 18.48%, 95% CI 2.83, 36.51), and COPD (ER = 13.27%, 95% CI 0.46, 27.71); CO was associated with lung infections and asthma with lag effects on lag days 1 and 4; and PM2.5 was associated with COPD admissions on lag day 6. Respiratory hospital admissions in female over 65years old and autumn were more associated with increased air pollutant levels. Our study results might add more detail evidences for relationship studies between air pollution exposure and respiratory diseases and contribute to the precise respiratory disease prevention and air pollution control strategies.

Pollution Characteristics and Potential Source Contributions of Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM) During Summer and Autumn in Ningbo City

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) is commonly known as a hazardous heavy metal in the atmosphere and is harmful to living organisms. GEM is chemically stable and has a long residence time in the atmosphere; hence, it can be transported over long distances with air masses and is regarded as a global pollutant. We study the transportation and transformation mechanisms of GEM and its potential anthropogenic and natural contribution sources. GEM, conventional atmospheric pollutants, and meteorological parameters were monitored at a coastal site in Ningbo during the summer and autumn of 2017. The results were as follows. ① The concentrations of GEM ranged from 0.97-10.95 ng·m-3 and the mean and standard deviation (SD) were (2.32±0.90) ng·m-3, whereby the mean summer concentration was lower than the mean autumn concentration. ② The diurnal variations of GEM, ozone (O3), and gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) during summer/autumn and sunny/rainy days suggest that higher levels of O3 and that strong solar radiation accounted for the rapid photochemical oxidation of GEM. The intensity of oxidation on sunny days was higher than that on rainy days. ③ Correlation analysis showed that GEM was significantly positively correlated with PM2.5 (R=0.65, P<0.01), PM10 (R=0.47, P<0.01), NO2 (R=0.46, P<0.01), and CO (R=0.57, P<0.01). Local and regional sources of GEM were mainly related to fossil fuel combustion. ④ The photochemical oxidation rate of GEM was influenced by the concentrations of oxidants (e.g., O3), gas-particle partitioning between GEM and particles, and light extinction effects of PM2.5, water vapor, and NO2. ⑤ Potential source contribution analysis (PSCF) indicated that the northwestern Zhejiang Province (including Ningbo City), the southern Anhui Province, and most of Jiangxi Province constitute a triangular area that is a potential source contribution to NBUEORS atmospheric GEM pollution during the summer. Local, regional, and long-range sources all had strong impacts on GEM pollution. During the autumn, the potential sources were mainly in the northern Zhejiang Province, and the source was smaller than that during the summer. GEM pollution during the autumn was mainly influenced by local and regional sources. Therefore, the control of atmospheric GEM pollution in the Yangtze River delta should apply inter-regional prevention and comprehensive control strategies in order to reduce atmospheric mercury pollution.

Security region: An intelligent approach to transportation networks

The paper proposes the security region of transportation networks, which is defined as the set of flow states (operating points) satisfying the N-1 security in transportation networks. The boundary of the set is closed, inside which all the operating points are N-1 secure; oppositely, outside which all the operating points are insecure. Firstly, N-1 security of the transportation networks is defined, which means that when a road is blocked, vehicles in other roads of the networks can also reach their destination through different paths without being trapped in the road. Then, the security region of transportation networks is modeled. The algorithm of boundary calculation is studied and the boundary equations of security distance are proposed. Finally, the proposed security of the transportation networks is presented on different examples. The paper demonstrates the fact: 1) the security region could be accurately predicted by the simulation of N-1; 2) the boundary distance could show the degree of security; 3) security could be improved by preventive control scheme. The simulation on TransCAD is used to verify the correctness of the results above.

The impact of implementing HIV prevention policies therapy and control strategy among HIV and AIDS incidence cases in Malaysia.

Malaysia is faced with a high HIV/AIDS burden that poses a public health threat. We constructed and applied a compartmental model to understand the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in Malaysia. A simple model for HIV and AIDS disease that incorporates condom and uncontaminated needle-syringes interventions and addresses the relative impact of given treatment therapy for infected HIV newborns on reducing HIV and AIDS incidence is presented. We demonstrated how treatment therapy for new-born babies and the use of condoms or uncontaminated needle-syringes impact the dynamics of HIV in Malaysia. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia from 1986 to 2011. The epidemiological parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The reproduction number optimal for control of the HIV/AIDS disease obtained suggests that the disease-free equilibrium was unstable during the 25 years. However, the results indicated that the use of condoms and uncontaminated needle-syringes are pivotal intervention control strategies; a comprehensive adoption of the intervention may help stop the spread of HIV disease. Treatment therapy for newborn babies is also of high value; it reduces the epidemic peak. The combined effect of condom use or uncontaminated needle-syringe is more pronounced in controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Intelligent online catastrophe assessment and preventive control via a stacked denoising autoencoder

In all areas of engineering, catastrophe assessment is an essential prerequisite for remedial action schemes. Modelers constantly push for more accurate models, and often meet goals by using increasingly complex, data mining-based blackbox models. However, system operators tend to favor interpretable models for after-the-fact preventive control (PC). While switching from blackbox to interpretable solutions, a tradeoff occurs between accuracy and interpretability. To avoid this tradeoff, we develop an intelligent framework for online catastrophe assessment and PC via a blackbox stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) equipped with accuracy and the ability to derive a PC scheme. Specifically, we implement a transient stability cost-sensitive assessment (TSCA) and PC case in the context of a power grid. First, using only controllable variables, we build the TSCA model by adding a sigmoid unit on top of the SDAE. Considering power systems’ conservatism, we explore a novel TSCA model’s training criterion to determine the operation conditions’ degrees of stability and divide them into three classes: stable, unstable, and boundary. Second, given an operation condition identified as unstable or boundary by TSCA model and its desired degree of stability, the PC model (the reverse of a TSCA model’s mapping) consists of the top sigmoid’s backward mapping and the stack of denoising decoders from trained SDAE. The former is formalized as an optimization problem to push back the desired degree of stability to a desired SDAE’s highest-level abstraction. The latter decodes back the desired SDAE’s highest-level abstraction to a desired operation condition (essentially, a PC scheme nearest to the controlled operation condition in the coordinates along the underlying causes that generate the observed data). This approach actually resembles operators’ tendency to adjust and stabilize unstable conditions (in terms of underlying causes) with the fewest control actions. A simulation study on the IEEE New England 39-bus system shows that, as a blackbox technology, our framework not only provides superior online situational awareness, but also finds a viable PC scheme, thereby justifying its practicability in engineering.

Effects of Environment and Nutritional Conditions on mycelial growth of Ganoderma boninense

The Basal Stem Rot disease is caused by the soil-borne pathogen, Ganoderma boninense. It is an annihilating and widespread disease in oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.). The nutritional studies were conducted to know the best sources of carbon and nitrogen, ideal pH regimes, the best humidity and optimum temperature required for the mycelial growth of G. boninense. Out of six carbon sources tested, fructose and glucose proved to be the best carbon sources for the mycelial growth of G. boninense. Out of five nitrogen sources tested, ammonium citrate and ammonium nitrate were noticeably found as the best nitrogen sources for the mycelial growth. Studies on different pH regimes in medium with 83% potatoes and 75% lignocellulosic materials revealed that the ideal pH regimes for the mycelial growth were 4-5. The best humidity for mycelial growth of G. boninense was found between 50-60%. It is suitable to grow between 25 and 32°C, while the optimum temperature is 32°C. This information can be used as a guideline for Ganoderma’s disease prevention study and control strategies in the oil palm plantation in the future

Bacteriological profile and antibiogram of blood culture isolates from paediatric patients with special reference to ESBL and MRSA in a tertiary care centre

Introduction and Objective: Blood stream infections are important causes of morbidity and mortality in neonates and children. Blood culture remains the gold standard for their diagnosis. Emergence of multi drug resistant bacterial strains is a major problem in the management of sepsis. The antimicrobial susceptibility patterns help to guide the choice of empiric antimicrobial regimen for the patients with bacteremia and septicaemia. The present study was undertaken to identify the common bacterial pathogens associated with paediatric sepsis and to determine their antibiotic susceptibility pattern. Material and Methods: A retrospective observational study was carried out by reviewing the records of blood cultures received from clinically suspected paediatric patients of septicaemia between January to December 2017 in the Department of Microbiology, G.M.E.R.S Medical College and Hospital Gotri, Vadodara, Gujarat. 713 samples of blood cultures were received and processed during that period. The isolates were identified by conventional biochemical tests. Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed by Modified Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion method and the screened strains were further processed for detection of Extended Spectrum Beta Lactamases (ESBL) and Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) according to CLSI guidelines. Results: Out of the 713 Blood cultures, 161 (22.58%) were culture positive, of which 120 (74.54%) were Gram negative isolates and 41 (25.46%) were Gram positive. MRSA was detected in 38.46 % of the Staphylococcus aureus (S.aureus) isolates. 54% of Klebsiella spp and 52.63 % of Escherichia coli were found to be ESBL producers. Conclusion: High rates of isolation of MRSA and ESBL stresses on the need for a continued screening and surveillance for antibiotic resistance in Paediatric Care Units, which will influence the appropriate empiric treatment and infection control strategies for prevention of septicaemia in paediatric

Bipedal Model and Hybrid Zero Dynamics of Human Walking With Foot Slip

Abstract Foot slip is one of the major causes of falls in human locomotion. Analytical bipedal models provide an insight into the complex slip dynamics and reactive control strategies for slip-induced fall prevention. Most of the existing bipedal dynamics models are built on no foot slip assumption and cannot be used directly for such analysis. We relax the no-slip assumption and present a new bipedal model to capture and predict human walking locomotion under slip. We first validate the proposed slip walking dynamic model by tuning and optimizing the model parameters to match the experimental results. The results demonstrate that the model successfully predicts both the human walking and recovery gaits with slip. Then, we extend the hybrid zero dynamics (HZD) model and properties to capture human walking with slip. We present the closed-form of the HZD for human walking and discuss the transition between the nonslip and slip states through slip recovery control design. The analysis and design are illustrated through human walking experiments. The models and analysis can be further used to design and control wearable robotic assistive devices to prevent slip-and-fall.

Special Issue: Nonlinear and Computational Dynamics in Biomedical Applications

Special Issue: Nonlinear and Computational Dynamics in Biomedical Applications

ANALISIS STRATEGI PENGAWASAN PENGGUNAAN PEMBIAYAAN MODAL KERJA AKAD MUDLARABAH PADA NASABAH BMT BINA UMMAT SEJAHTERA CABANG BABAT LAMONGAN

The outlay of financial capital is one kind of financial budgetings used to support the investment and development of business. It also can be used by entrepreneurs to expand their enterprises and even those who intend to start running their business. In BMT Bina Ummat Sejahtera (BUS) branch of Babat Lamongan, the outlay of job financial capital applies the contract of mudlarabah. The process of applying the contract of mudarabah, however, appears certain risk and side effect toward the members of BMT BUS branch of Babat Lamongan when the outlay is given. So, BMT BUS branch of Babat Lamongan is doing supervision and control during the process. This research aims at revealing the strategies used to supervise the application process of the outlay of job financial capital using contract mudlarabah for members of BMT BUS branch of Babat Lamongan and how the strategies of analysis control applied to analyse the application process of the outlay of job financial capital using contract mudlarabah for members of BMT BUS branch of Babat Lamongan. This research is a qualitative research. The data collection is conducted by doing interview, observation and documentation. The data analysis method used is descriptive analysis. The research findings reveal that control strategy of the use of outlay of job financial capital using contract mudlarabah in BMT BUS branch of Babat Lamongan uses two controls. They are direct and indirect control. The direct control applies the preventive and repressive control strategy. Whereas the indirect control applied to supervise and observe the installment report of members’ payment and the cash flow of the members while running their business. The strategy of analysis control to supervise the use of outlay of job financial capital using contract mudlarabah implemented in BMT BUS branch of Babat Lamongan is good enough. Keywords: Controlling, Outlay of job capital and Contract mudlarabah

Association between gender and stoke recurrence in ischemic stroke patients with high-grade carotid artery stenosis

The association between gender and stroke outcome in patients with high-grade internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis remains unclear. We investigate gender differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes in ischemic stroke patients with high-grade ICA stenosis. Three-hundred and seventy-two acute ischemic stroke patients with high-grade ICA stenosis were enrolled and followed up for 5 years. Demographic features, vascular risk factors, co-morbidities, and outcomes were compared between male and female genders. Two-hundred and seventy-three (73.4%) patients were males and 99 (26.6%) patients were females. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation was higher in females (P = 0.031 and P = 0.043), whereas the prevalence of smoking was higher in males (P < 0.001). The 5-year mortality rate was not different between males and females (P = 0.437), whereas the 5-year recurrent stroke rate was significantly higher in males (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.22–3.75; P = 0.004). After adjusting for the established clinical predictors of adverse outcomes, the multivariate Cox regression revealed that male gender is a significant predictor of recurrent ischemic stroke (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.19–3.20; P = 0.008). In conclusion, male gender is associated with increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with high-grade ICA stenosis during 5-year follow-up. Further prospective trial to assess whether male gender may benefit from more aggressive vascular risk factors control and treatment strategies for stroke prevention is warranted.

Tomato Inoculation With a Non-pathogenic Strain of Fusarium oxysporum Enhances Pest Control by Changing the Feeding Preference of an Omnivorous Predator

Mirid predators, a special group of plant-feeding omnivorous predators, have become important biological control agents for pest control in greenhouse cropping systems. Their efficacy and behavior may potentially be affected by microorganisms that induce plant defenses or change plant quality. Here we studied the interaction between a root restricted endophytic non-pathogenic strain of Fusarium oxysporum (Fo162) in tomato plants, the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) and the plant-feeding mirid predator Macrolophus pygmaeus (Rambur). In the absence of prey, inoculation of tomato plants with the Fo162 endophyte significantly reduced the reproduction of M. pygmaeus compared to plants without the endophyte. In contrast, the population growth of M. pygmaeus was not affected by the Fo162 endophyte in the presence of whiteflies. Moreover, the combination of the predator and endophyte resulted in lower whitefly densities than the predator alone. Whitefly population development was not different between endophyte-inoculated and untreated plants. Thus, endophyte inoculation of tomato plants seems to shift the feeding preference of this omnivorous predator from plant consumption towards relatively more prey consumption, resulting in enhanced suppression of the herbivore. Moreover, the negative effect of the endophyte on M. pygmaeus reproduction could easily be eliminated by providing decapsulated cysts of Artemia franciscana Kellogg as a supplemental food source. Together, this suggests an overall net positive effect of the Fo162 endophyte on a preventive biological control strategy in tomato using M. pygmaeus. Besides the enhanced whitefly control, endophyte-inoculation of tomato plants both with or without the predator also resulted in a higher yield and a reduced number of fruits with blossom-end rot, a disorder caused by limitations in uptake and transport of calcium to the fruits. This suggests that the Fo162 endophyte is also involved in the acquisition of essential nutrients for the benefit for the plant. Since both the Fo162 endophyte and the predator M. pygmaeus can induce plant defense, further studies need to elucidate the exact mechanisms that occur when both organisms are present. Our findings confirm the importance of studying endophytes and induced plant responses in a multi-trophic context with herbivores and their natural enemies.

Soil moisture from remote sensing to forecast desert locust presence

Abstract Preventive control of desert locusts is based on monitoring recession areas to detect outbreaks. Remote sensing has been increasingly used in the preventive control strategy. Soil moisture is a major ecological driver of desert locust populations but is still missing in the current imagery toolkit for preventive management. By means of statistical analyses, combining field observations of locust presence/absence and soil moisture estimates at 1 km resolution from a disaggregation algorithm, we assess the potential of soil moisture to help preventive management of desert locust. We observe that a soil moisture dynamics increase of above 0.09 cm3/cm3 for 20 days followed by a decrease of soil moisture may increase the chance to observe locusts 70 days later. We estimate the gains in early warning timing compared to using imagery from vegetation to be 3 weeks. We demonstrate that forecasting errors may be reduced by the combination of several types of indicators such as soil moisture and vegetation index in a common statistical model forecasting locust presence. Policy implications. Soil moisture estimates at 1 km resolution should be used to plan desert locust surveys in preventive management. When soil moisture increases in a dry area of potential habitat for the desert locust, field surveys should be conducted two months later to evaluate the need of further preventive actions. Remote sensing estimates of soil moisture could also be used for other applications of integrated pest management.

Multidisciplinary management of adult rampant dental caries - A rare case report.

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 1999-2002 recorded that 21% of children and 23% of adults had untreated dental caries in the permanent dentition. Ten percent of adults had untreated root caries. Though considerable literature exists on rampant caries in children, because of the lack of strict diagnostic criteria, there is little published data on the incidence and prevalence of adult rampant dental caries. Diagnosis requires assessment of caries activity, oral dryness, dietary risks and medical risks. Management of this condition requires a disease control phase involving Caries risk assessment and evaluation, with reassessment throughout the program. Restoration of all cavitated lesions and use of fluoride releasing materials followed by preventive and therapeutic control strategies, including diet modification. This is followed by extensive multidisciplinary corrective phase involving endodontic, periodontal and prosthetic rehabilitation. The maintenance phase involves preventive and therapeutic agents employed from several different fronts simultaneously, tailored to the source of the caries risk. This case report highlights the importance of proper diagnosis, treatment planning and comprehensive multidisciplinary approach to achieve the function, esthetics and to regain self confidence of the patient in a rare case of adult rampant dental caries.

Prevention, control and vaccine development of African swine fever: challenges and countermeasures

African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic and devastating infectious disease of pigs caused by African swine fever virus (ASFV), with mortality up to 100%. The first ASF outbreak occurred in China in August 2018, followed by 69 cases of ASF in 18 provinces in more than three months, causing a heavy burden to the pig industry. Based on the global epidemic situation of ASF and the experience of prevention and control in other countries, the ASF control and eradication situation in China is extremely complex and serious. The availability of effective and safe ASF vaccines is an urgent requirement to reinforce control and eradication strategies. Therefore, this article starts with the latest findings of ASFV, summarizes the progress in prevention and control strategies and vaccine approaches for ASFV. We also discuss the challenges of preventing and controlling ASF, focusing on current vaccine strategies, the gaps, future research directions, and key scientific issues in commercial applications. We hope to provide basic information for the development of vaccines and prevention control strategies against this disease in China.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Hot Spot Detection of Visceral Leishmaniasis Disease in Kashi Prefecture, China.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) remains a serious public health problem in China. To explore the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal characteristics of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the spatial and spatiotemporal clustering distribution and their relationships with the surrounding geographic environmental factors were analyzed. In this study, the average nearest-neighbor distance (ANN), Ripley’s K-function and Moran’s I statistics were used to evaluate spatial autocorrelation in the VL distribution of the existing case patterns. Getis–Ord Gi* was used to identify the hot-spot and cold-spot areas based on Geographic Information System (GIS), and spatiotemporal retrospective permutation scan statistics was used to detect the spatiotemporal clusters. The results indicated that VL continues to be a serious public health problem in Kashi Prefecture, China, particularly in the north-central region of Jiashi County, which is a relatively high-risk area in which hot spots are distributed. Autumn and winter months were the outbreak season for VL cases. The detection of spatial and spatiotemporal patterns can provide epidemiologists and local governments with significant information for prevention measures and control strategies.

Porous metal-organic framework (MOF) Carrier for incorporation of volatile antimicrobial essential oil

The increasing demand for safety and quality in food products has stimulated research on developing natural preservatives and their carrier systems as a novel preventive control strategy. In this study, metal-organic framework (MOF) was investigated, for the first time, as a carrier for volatile antimicrobial essential oils. Zinc metal-organic framework (Zn@MOF) was synthesized with zinc nitrate hexahydrate and 2-aminoterephthalic acid in N, N-dimethylformamide (DMF). Thymol was then loaded into the Zn@MOF at a loading rate of 3.96% as measured by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The crystal structure of porous MOF was confirmed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Antibacterial activity of thymol loaded Zn@MOF (T-Zn@MOF) with active thymol loading of 0.029 g/100 g was assessed against a three-strain cocktail of E. coli O157:H7 in a tryptic soy broth (TSB). E. coli O157:H7 growth in T-Zn@MOF exhibited growth inhibition without an exponential growth phase after 24 h of incubation, which could be attributed to the sustained release of thymol by incorporating it in the porous Zn@MOF through noncovalent interactions. This research demonstrates that Zn@MOF loaded with the essential oil thymol is an effective antimicrobial and may have potential indirect applications in food.

Model predictive rollover prevention for steer-by-wire vehicles with a new rollover index

ABSTRACTRecent advances in active safety systems provide new opportunities to handle rollover problems more efficiently. This paper presents a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for rollover prevention through active front steering. A new Rollover Index (RI) and a specified vehicle model are proposed to realise an effective rollover prevention approach. The new RI is represented by vehicle parameters and state variables so that it can be readily incorporated into the MPC objective function. Using a barrier cost function, the proposed MPC controller limits vehicle maneuvers within a safe region of rollover without sacrificing vehicle maneuverability under normal conditions. The roll dynamics, the tire nonlinearity, the lateral load transfer, and the road bank are considered for vehicle modelling to provide appropriate actions at the threshold of a rollover. An affine tire model is used to handle tire nonlinearity in the MPC structure. A high-fidelity CarSim model for an SUV is employed to evaluate the proposed RI and the MPC controller. Simulation results show the reliability of the proposed RI and the effectiveness of the proposed rollover prevention controller for different rollover situations.

Sensitivity of joint contagiousness and susceptibility-based dynamic optimal control strategies for HIV prevention.

Predicting the population-level effects of an infectious disease intervention that incorporate multiple modes of intervention is complicated by the joint non-linear dynamics of both infection transmission and the intervention itself. In this paper, we consider the sensitivity of Dynamic Optimal Control Profiles (DOCPs) for the optimal joint investment in both a contagiousness and susceptibility-based control of HIV to bio-behavioral, economic, and programmatic assumptions. The DOCP is calculated using recently developed numerical algorithms that allow controls to be represented by a set of piecewise constant functions that maintain a constant yearly budget. Our transmission model assumes multiple stages of HIV infection corresponding to acute and chronic infection and both within- and between-individual behavioral heterogeneity. We parameterize a baseline scenario from a longitudinal study of sexual behavior in MSM and consider sensitivity of the DOCPs to deviations from that baseline scenario. In the baseline scenario, the primary determinant of the dominant control were programmatic factors, regardless of budget. In sensitivity analyses, the qualitative aspects of the optimal control policy were often robust to significant deviation in assumptions regarding transmission dynamics. In addition, we found several conditions in which long-term joint investment in both interventions was optimal. Our results suggest that modeling in the service of decision support for intervention design can improve population-level effects of a limited set of economic resources. We found that economic and programmatic factors were as important as the inherent transmission dynamics in determining population-level intervention effects. Given our finding that the DOCPs were robust to alternative biological and behavioral assumptions it may be possible to identify DOCPs even when the data are not sufficient to identify a transmission model.