Presidential Election Year Research Articles

Delaying the Buck: Timing and Strategic Advantages in Executive-Legislative Bargaining over Appropriations

Delay is a common feature of appropriations politics. Although members of Congress and the president often decry lengthy delays in the passage of appropriations bills, we investigate whether such delays might confer strategic advantages, and if so, to whom. We draw from bargaining theory to understand how the relationship between the duration of negotiations and outcomes depends on the underlying distribution of bargaining power and the nature of the bargaining process. In our empirical analysis, we find that delay is associated with greater concessions to the president, but not with more extreme outcomes. We also find that the House and Senate concede more to presidents who prefer less spending, while the Senate is more responsive to presidential needs during presidential election years. These results suggest that the president's power comes from the asymmetry of veto and proposal rights, rather than from symmetric bargaining with proposals and counterproposals or a “war of nerves.”

The Brazilian Electoral Panel Studies (Beps): Brazilian Public Opinion in the 2010 Presidential Elections

This report presents sample characteristics and summary statistics from the Brazilian Electoral Panel Study (BEPS) project. The survey, composed of three waves, was conducted in Brazil in 2010, a presidential election year, and is composed of 4,611 interviews with 2,669 voting-age Brazilians.

The VA: A Precious Resource

This is the 120 Annual Meeting of the Western Surgical Association, one of the oldest surgical societies. This is the 14 meeting of “The Western” in Colorado Springs. In 1997, at our 12 meeting in Colorado Springs, Past President Dr Jack Pickleman’s address to the Western Surgical Association, entitled, “Another Letter to the President,” detailed his concerns about health care to President Clinton. Like virtually all of Jack’s addresses, it was thoughtful, colorful, and entertaining as he detailed proposals for Medicare recipients, medical savings accounts, the Surgeon General’s role in public health, and threats to graduate medical education funding. I have been privileged to serve as your president this year, an honor that I did not deserve though humbly accepted. In this presidential election year, we have heard too many polarizing political statements about our high, though declining, national unemployment rate, the housing crisis that is dissipating, and the slow economy. In spite of these economic and political issues, we are again reminded of our sometimes tenuous earthly existence after witnessing yet another natural disaster in Hurricane Sandy on the East Coast. Today, my objective is to describe a “precious resource” that most of us have experienced and that continues to be a vital part of our profession and discipline. The MerriamWebster online dictionary defines precious as something of “great value or high price,” as “highly esteemed or cherished,” and as “priceless or valuable.” It defines resource as a “source of supply or support,” or as a “natural feature or phenomenon that enhances the quality of human life.” Although I have no conflicts of interest and have no disclosures to make, I do have a passion for this “precious resource,” which has been a major part of my professional life since I was a medical student in the early 1970s. Today, I will speak to you and describe the Veterans Administration (VA). The VA provides a robust and rich environment for the veteran as a patient, the trainee as learnerdwhether

The Benefits of Political Connection: Evidence from Individual Bank-Loan Contracts

This paper investigates whether political connections improve the access of firms to financing. We propose three hypotheses to prove that political benefits exist. First, do politically connected firms obtain preferential treatment for bank loans? Second, if these firms do obtain preferential treatment, do they benefit from government-owned banks (GOBs) more than from privately owned banks? Third, is the preferential treatment from GOBs enhanced during presidential election years? We examine these three questions by using detailed data on political connections and 69,332 individual bank-loan contracts for listed firms in Taiwan from 1991 to 2008. The empirical results generally support our hypotheses.

To Redistribute or Not: A Politician's Dilemma

A prerequisite for the adoption of redistributive policies in a democracy is that there be elected representatives who are either committed to or who have an incentive to advocate for such policies. To evaluate the prospects of such an outcome, this paper develops a theory exploring two fundamental factors at play during elections - the critical political stage where citizens choose their representatives. The first is the lack of information about the policy inclinations of candidates. The second refers to two motivations compelling candidates into politics (and possibly at odds with each other): the opportunity to implement one's favored policies or to extract rents. Results indicate the existence of an equilibrium where high inequality and low redistribution can coexist. The theory's assumptions and outcomes are explored empirically using individual-level data collected in presidential election years in Brazil.

Individual Campaign Contributions and Voter Turnout: The Role of Broadband Network Availability

I identify the effect of broadband network availability on individual campaign donations and electoral participation. Using broadband availability as an instrumental variable, I then look for the effect of individual campaign contributions on electoral participation. I find that broadband explains a 40 percent increase in contributions since the mid-1990s. Focusing on electoral outcomes in presidential election years, I then find that broadband diffusion has led to a 3 percentage points increase in voter turnout, a 3 percentage points increase in democratic vote share, and a 2 percentage points increase in winning margins. I finally show that another half percentage point increase increase in voter turnout can be attributed to individual campaign contributions, an effect four times larger than the least squares estimate. Overall, my findings are consistent with a broadband effect channeling through information provision. They also help rehabilitate the popular view that campaign contributions play an instrumental role in elections.

Going Symbolic

Research into the American Presidents’ role in crime control policy has consistently found that they rely on symbolic rhetoric in their crime speeches. The research to date, however, has been confined to qualitative analysis and has not attempted to explain why presidents engage in symbolic rhetoric when it comes to crime policy. This study assesses presidential speeches related to crime from 1948 through 2010, and employs logistic regression to estimate the effects of the independent variables on the likelihood presidents will employ symbolic rhetoric. Findings suggest public opinion, presidential election year, party affiliation, and divided government, are significant factors in the likelihood presidents will engage in symbolic politics. The article concludes with a discussion of the study’s implication for the larger body of research on presidential crime rhetoric and the federal role in crime control.

Tech industry money in U.S. elections

When it comes to funding political campaigns, the technology industry maintains a pretty low profile. In fact, figures from the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) show the industry is spending about the same amount as in previous presidential election years [see chart, "Contributions to U.S. Election Campaigns"]. That's despite overall campaign spending that's set to beat ’s record by US $400 million.

Winning the future for mathematics teaching and learning

As we launch the 2012–2013 academic year, we find ourselves positioned for the natural renewal of focus and energy that often accompany presidential election years. We recognize that in addition to the weak economy, state and national reductions to education resources can create their own challenges to the mathematics education community as we adopt common curriculum standards. More than forty U.S. states are collectively endeavoring to meet the challenge of understanding and implementing the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (CCSSM) with fidelity to both the Content and the Mathematical Practices (CCSSI 2010). Other states and regions we serve are also renewing their commitment to quality mathematics instruction and assessment that meets high standards.

2012 Florida Constitutional Amendment 4: Property Tax Limitations; Property Value Decline; Reduction for Nonhomestead Assessment Increases, Delay of Scheduled Repeal

In addition to 2012 being a presidential election year, Florida voters also will be asked to vote on a number of proposed amendments to their state constitution. Many voters remain either unaware or less informed regarding the effects and impacts of the proposed constitutional amendments. This document is one of a series of 6 fact sheets that was written by Rodney L. Clouser and published by the UF Department of Food and Resource Economics, July 2012.

2012 Florida Constitutional Amendment 2: Veterans Disabled Due to Combat Injury; Homestead Property Tax Discount

In addition to 2012 being a presidential election year, Florida voters also will be asked to vote on a number of proposed amendments to their state constitution. Many voters remain either unaware or less informed regarding the effects and impacts of the proposed constitutional amendments. This document is one of a series of 6 fact sheets that was written by Rodney L. Clouser and published by the UF Department of Food and Resource Economics, July 2012.

2012 Florida Constitutional Amendment 9: Homestead Property Tax Exemption for Surviving Spouse of Military Veteran or First Responder

In addition to 2012 being a presidential election year, Florida voters also will be asked to vote on a number of proposed amendments to their state constitution. Many voters remain either unaware or less informed regarding the effects and impacts of the proposed constitutional amendments. This document is one of a series of 6 fact sheets that was written by Rodney L. Clouser and published by the UF Department of Food and Resource Economics, July 2012.

2012 Florida Constitutional Amendment 11: Additional Homestead Exemption; Low-Income Seniors Who Maintain Long-Term Residency on Property; Equal to Assessed Value

In addition to 2012 being a presidential election year, Florida voters also will be asked to vote on a number of proposed amendments to their state constitution. Many voters remain either unaware or less informed regarding the effects and impacts of the proposed constitutional amendments. This document is one of a series of 6 fact sheets that was written by Rodney L. Clouser and published by the UF Department of Food and Resource Economics, July 2012.

2012 Florida Constitutional Amendment 3: State Government Revenue Limitation

In addition to 2012 being a presidential election year, Florida voters also will be asked to vote on a number of proposed amendments to their state constitution. Many voters remain either unaware or less informed regarding the effects and impacts of the proposed constitutional amendments. This document is one of a series of 6 fact sheets that was written by Rodney L. Clouser and published by the UF Department of Food and Resource Economics, July 2012.

2012 Florida Constitutional Amendment 10: Tangible Personal Property Tax Exemption

In addition to 2012 being a presidential election year, Florida voters also will be asked to vote on a number of proposed amendments to their state constitution. Many voters remain either unaware or less informed regarding the effects and impacts of the proposed constitutional amendments. This document is one of a series of 6 fact sheets that was written by Rodney L. Clouser and published by the UF Department of Food and Resource Economics, July 2012.

The Contemporary Presidency: The Personnel Process in the Modern Presidency

During a presidential election year, public attention naturally turns toward candidates and campaigns. The best prepared candidates, however, are thinking beyond voting day toward postelection planning. The task of transitioning to become president is enormous. On the personnel side, a new president will have to fill between 3,000 and 4,000 positions. In this article I review the current state of presidential personnel politics. I review the choices confronting presidents and how the personnel process is changing. I conclude by making suggestions for reforming the personnel system equally applicable to either party's candidate for the presidency in 2012.

Missile Defense Malpractice: U.S.-Russian Relations and Nuclear Fallacy

U.S.-Russian political relations took a turn for the worse in 2011–2012, especially in the latter year, a presidential election year in both the United States and Russia. Among the issues in contention as between Washington and Moscow was the American and NATO plan for phased deployment of missile defenses in Europe. Some prominent Russian officials and military experts regarded the proposed European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) plan for European missile defenses as a prospective threat to Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent. Russia's objections to NATO's missiles defenses are as much political as they are military-technical, and the 2012 return of Vladimir Putin to the Russian presidency renders uncertain the future of the U.S.-Russian ‘reset’ launched during the early years of the Obama administration.

Risk stratification in TIA patients

Presidential election years are often filled with snappy slogans. One of the best was Bill Clinton's “It's the economy, stupid” in 1992. In the campaign to prevent subsequent strokes in patients presenting with transient cerebral ischemia (TIA), we might borrow a page from Clinton's playbook. The 90-day stroke risk after TIA is approximately 10%, half of which is front-loaded into the first 48 hours after the event.1 To identify patients at highest risk, investigators have developed risk stratification tools. The most widely used one is the 7-point ABCD2 score, which the American Heart Association (AHA) has incorporated into its TIA guideline.1 In this issue of Neurology ®, Sanders et al.2 present a meta-analysis of prior studies reporting the predictive value of the ABCD2 score. They analyzed data from over 16,000 patients, correcting for factors such as dichotomization of ABCD2 score, baseline stroke risk, and the specialty of the physician diagnosing the TIA. Overall, the area under the curve (AUC) for stroke prediction using the ABCD2 score following TIA was a respectable 0.70. But the AUC only tells part …

Circumventing the Electoral College: Why the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Survives Constitutional Scrutiny Under the Compact Clause

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVC) presents an emerging legal issue that straddles the line between political science and law. The NPVC is an interstate compact in which member states will allocate all of their electoral votes to the winner of the national vote, as opposed to the traditional state vote. The bill would not be effective until states possessing a majority of the nation's electoral votes (270) have become members. If enacted by enough states, the NPVC would all but put an end to the Electoral College, and the United States would essentially move to a direct national vote for president, without a constitutional amendment. The most hotly contested legal issue surrounding the NPVC will likely be whether Congressional consent is required for the NPVC's member states to validly enter into the compact.This article ultimately concludes that Congressional consent would not be required for the NPVC to be effective, because member states would not be encroaching on the powers of non-member states. Additionally, I offer an alternative argument about faithless that breaks new ground in NPVC literature. The Supreme Court has said that one of the most relevant inquiries into the Congressional consent requirement is whether compacting states can unilaterally withdraw from the compact. I conclude that even though member states cannot withdraw from the NPVC after July 20 of a presidential election year, the individual electors can withdraw on behalf of the states. The Constitution does not bind electors to vote for a particular candidate, but only mandates that state legislatures commit to a method of allocation. Thus, compacting states can still compel their pledged electors to change their vote.

Who Advocates? Determinants of Political Advocacy in Presidential Election Years

Political discussion research often focuses on general discussion without analyzing interesting subsets of interpersonal communication, such as political advocacy. Political advocacy is crucial to study because it is where citizens make clear statements of their beliefs when trying to influence others, which democratic theorists cite as valuable in spreading information in discussion networks. In this project, we test theoretically relevant determinants of political advocacy, focusing on campaign spending. Using multilevel logistic regression models of American National Election Study survey data from presidential elections between 1976 and 2008, we find that campaign spending correlates with an increase in the likelihood of advocating. We also find that the likelihood of being an advocate correlates with greater political discussion, television usage, interest in politics, partisanship, efficacy, and socioeconomic status. Additionally, we break these results down by party spending and party identification, and find differentiated results by party. Generally, these results show how the electoral environment shapes interpersonal communication.