Presidential Election Year Research Articles

Polarized Corporate Boards

We show that political polarization between directors and a CEO negatively impacts the effectiveness of corporate boards. At the director level, polarization increases directors’ incentive to monitor the CEO but creates a hostile board environment and discourages moderate directors’ board meeting attendance. This leads to compromised board capacity at the firm level and significantly reduces forced turnover-performance sensitivity. Our results are more pronounced in presidential election years and for firms with more monitoring and advising needs. Finally, we show that polarization in the boardroom lowers investment-Q sensitivity. Our findings highlight the real economic cost of political polarization.

Postmaterialism and referenda voting to legalize marijuana

This analysis of county-level voting on 22 state referenda that sought to legalize marijuana for medical purposes or recreational use is driven by hypotheses from post-materialism theory. Separate regression models for each type of policy largely, though not entirely, support our expectations. Voting to legalize both medical and recreational marijuana was greater in counties with larger college-educated populations, a partisan preference for Democratic presidential candidates, and smaller percentages of Catholic, Protestant, and Evangelical adherents. The findings for age, the other primary driver of post-materialist values, are counter-intuitive, but holding these referenda during a U.S. presidential election year had statistically significant though different impacts on the outcome. The higher turnout during presidential elections seemingly facilitated voting in favor of recreational marijuana while lower turnouts during non-presidential elections aided voting for medical marijuana. Finally, population density was not statistically significant in either model.

Presidential Control and Turnover in Regulatory Personnel

Career executives often occupy administrative positions that determine the pace and content of policy, such as those responsible for developing regulations. Yet, presidential administrations need control over these positions to achieve policy aims. This article considers the extent to which new presidential administrations marginalize career executives in key regulatory positions by transferring responsibilities to another individual and whether the mere expectation of political conflict with a new administration drives career regulators from their positions. Using unique new data on 866 career regulators that led major rulemaking efforts between 1995 and 2013, we demonstrate that turnover among career executives in key regulatory positions increases following a party change in the White House. Turnover also increases during a presidential election year, but this effect is conditioned by bureaucrats’ expectations of the election outcome. Finally, career executives are more likely to depart in response to favorable labor market conditions. Given our findings that turnover in regulatory responsibilities is driven both by presidential marginalization and strategic exit by bureaucrats, we conclude with implications for presidential efforts to control the administrative state.

Electoral cycles, partisan effects and US naturalization policies

Using a panel of naturalizations in the United States from 1965 to 2012, we empirically analyze the impact of elections on naturalization policy. Our results indicate that naturalization policy is (partly) driven by national elections: there are more naturalizations in presidential election years and during the terms of Democratic incumbents. To disentangle the effect of government policies from changes in the demand for naturalizations, we examine how the acceptance rate of naturalization petitions is affected by elections. The analysis reveals that the acceptance rate is much higher under Democratic incumbents with the strongest increase during the years that are closer to the next presidential election. In contrast, (almost) no variation is found under a Republican incumbent. We then investigate the dynamics of an incumbent’s behavior over the course of his term in detail. Our findings indicate that the effects are more pronounced in politically contested states, in states with many migrants and for immigrants originating from Latin America.

The U.S. Presidential Election 2012/2016 and Investors’ Sentiment: The Case of CBOE Market Volatility Index

Given that political events have substantial effect on new economic policies and economic performance of the country, this article aims to examine the behavior of the investors’ sentiment in terms of implied volatility index trailed by the U.S. presidential elections. The study empirically tests whether the presidential elections in 2012/2016 do contain the important market inclusive information to explain the expected stock market volatility. The findings indicate that investors’ concern was distracted around the presidential elections window, albeit the market performed identically in both the presidential election years. The significant fall in the implied volatility level (post-election period) is the calm before the storm, just wait and watch. The positive estimate uncovers the fact that investor worries were higher before the election day. In particular, the significant estimate of the presidential election debate shows that investors do regard the minutes of the presidential election debates in their portfolio selection. At the two elections era, on the candidacy of both the parties, the empirical result speaks marginally contrasting outcomes and falsifies the presidential election cycle hypothesis of past 29 U.S. election years. Empirical estimates conclude that the presidential elections in 2012/2016 have a strong, significant relationship with investor’s sentiment and stock market performance.

Does State Online Voter Registration Increase Voter Turnout?*

ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to examine the impact of U.S. state online registration reforms on voter turnout. More states have been adopting online voter registration in recent years. Investigating the impact of the policy on voter turnout can inform policy making and contribute to our knowledge of political behavior.MethodsThe methods of this study include difference‐in‐difference analysis and instrumental variable analysis. Using the Current Population Survey data between 2000 and 2014, I conduct a difference‐in‐difference analysis at the state level and then an instrumental variable analysis at the individual level.ResultsThe results of this study demonstrate that state online voter registration increases voter turnout. The difference‐in‐difference analysis shows that the states’ implementation of online voter registration increases the turnout of young voters by about 3 percentage points in presidential election years. The instrumental variable analysis shows that the usage of online registration by voters increases their turnout by about 18 to 20 percentage points.ConclusionThe conclusion of this study is that state online voter registration reforms are generally effective in increasing voter turnout. There are nontrivial positive effects of online registration on turnout, especially for young people during presidential election years.

Using Campus Presidential Debate Watch Events to Nudge: Enlisting Reference Group Leaders and Incentives in the Quest for Increasing Student Political Participation and Efficacy

In presidential election years such as 2016, colleges and universities across the country devote substantial time and resources to student debate watch events in hopes of engaging students in the election and of generally enhancing political engagement. Few studies examine the effectiveness or potential role of such events for college students’ political participation, however. We used student leaders and attendance incentives to encourage student turnout at campus debate watch events among members of campus Greek organizations. In a quasi-experiment with attendance at campus debate events as the intervention, we explored differences between students watching debates at sponsored events with comparison groups who exclusively watched debates elsewhere. Additional groups of interest included nonwatchers and “nudged” watchers who attended a campus event to view only one debate. Based on surveys of undergraduate Greek organization members, we found a strong culture of political participation and efficacy related to the fall 2016 elections in both intervention and comparison groups, in stark contrast to those who did not watch any debates. Most importantly, a third group of “nudged” debate watchers voted and registered at higher rates than nonwatchers. Follow-up interviews with randomly selected students from a volunteer pool provided additional data. Results indicate that universities can serve as choice architects and deliberative facilitators with the potential to increase students’ political participation. As such, colleges and universities may want to devote resources toward: (1) providing incentives for students to attend coordinated presidential debate watch events that feature registration and voting resources and (2) engaging student reference group leaders in marketing and facilitating debate watch events.

Explaining Expulsions of U.S. Diplomatic Personnel from Latin America, 1991–2016

This article examines expulsions of U.S. diplomats from Latin America and the Caribbean between 1991 and 2016. Employing an original data set of expulsions of U.S. diplomatic personnel, the analysis focuses on the number of first‐mover expulsions—cases where the Latin American government was the first to expel a U.S. diplomat in a year. The models are estimated with pooled negative binomial regression with robust standard errors. The results suggest there were more first‐mover expulsions in countries governed by radical, populist‐left presidents. For the radical, populist Left, expulsions offered a low‐cost mechanism to pursue opposition to U.S. influence in Latin America while also giving executives an opportunity to strengthen ties to their electoral base. Results also show that presidential election years had a positive and significant effect. Prior retaliatory expulsions, alleged U.S. interference, other types of executive‐party control, and economic ties with the United States and China had no effect on expulsions. Oil exports to the United States were associated positively with higher expulsion counts, which we attribute to the unwillingness of radical populists—and of the United States—to escalate diplomatic tensions into wider economic conflicts.

Pushing the future back: The impact of policy uncertainty on the market pricing of future earnings

AbstractWe examine whether policy uncertainty triggered by presidential elections pushes the future back by reducing the extent to which current prices reflect information about future earnings. We estimate future earnings response coefficients (FERCs) for the years 1975–2013, a period that covers ten presidential elections. We find that FERCs are significantly lower (by 11.8%) during presidential election years compared to other years. Additional analyses using pseudo election years, ex‐ante polls, contract prices from the Iowa Electronic Political Market, and cross‐sectional firm characteristics provide corroborating evidence that the lower FERCs during election years are related to policy uncertainty. We also investigate potential explanations for the lower FERCs during election years. We find that the lower FERCs relate to forecasting difficulty rather than to changes in the discount rate or in the amount of noise trading. Finally, we find that market prices move toward future earnings to a greater degree during presidential election years compared with other years once the policy uncertainty is resolved. A trading strategy based on this drift yields significant abnormal returns. Overall, we contribute to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence that shocks to policy uncertainty influence the pricing of earnings information.

Suicide Rates in U.S. Presidential Election Years: 2008, 2012 and 2016

The author examines age-group specific suicide rates by state in the United States presidential election years of 2008, 2012 and 2016. For each election year, the states are divided into blue states (whose voters chose the Democratic Party presidential candidate) and red states (whose voters chose the Republican Party presidential candidate). While suicide rates have trended higher in all states, the differences in mean suicide rates in 2012 (when Democrat Barack Obama was re-elected) were significantly higher in red states than they were in blue states for every age group but adults 55 to 64 years of age. In 2016, when the Republican Party re-captured the White House late in the year, mean differences were notably higher in red states than in blue states among adults between 25 and 54 years of age.

Consensus and Conflict: A Content Analysis of American Party Platforms, 1840–1896

Throughout the nineteenth century, political parties attempted to mediate local, state, and national conflicts to forge a winning electoral coalition. The question here is whether party leaders felt that success depended on offering clear divergent positions to their voters. In other words, to what extent did the parties present alternative programs to the electorate—at any specific time or over time? This study examines the growth of the two-party system in nineteenth-century America by focusing on the interaction of the elites of the Democrats and Whig/Republicans in forging their electoral message. The methodology includes a content analysis of national and state party platforms during presidential election years 1840 through 1896 to show when and where parties emphasized certain issue proposals. Ultimately, this is a story of interparty polarization—over time, the two major parties tended to emphasize the same issues and offer divergent positions in their platforms.

Literature as a Political Tool: Whig Efforts to Prevent the Election of Martin Van Buren

Abstract Starting with Andrew Jackson, presidential candidates in the United States used campaign biographies as useful political tools, and since 1824 no presidential election year has passed without a campaign biography. Martin Van Buren, President Jackson’s successor in the White House, became a target of a vicious campaign intended to prevent his election. His Whig opponents used a number of literary genres to slander him, including a mock campaign biography and a novel. The article focuses on the portrayal of Martin Van Buren in The Life of Martin Van Buren, allegedly written by Davy Crockett in 1835, and a novel named The Partisan Leader; A Tale of the Future, written by Nathaniel Beverley Tucker in 1836. Though being of different genres, these curious and obscure works have certain things in common - they were written under pseudonyms, their main goal was to prevent the election of Martin Van Buren and both of them failed in their goal.

Book Review: Better Living through Criticism: How to Think about Art, Pleasure, Beauty, and Truth

Better Living Through Criticism: How to Think About Art, Pleasure, Beauty, and Truth. By A. O. Scott. New York: Penguin Press, 2016. 270 pp. $28.00 (cloth).This spirited book reads somewhat differently each time one picks it up. Is it just a fun romp through the pleasures (and, all too often, tortures!) of assessing creative works begging for approval? Or, perhaps it is a thinly veiled self-justification by a highbrow film critic/college professor? Maybe it is many things at once: social analysis and communitarian provocation; moral philosophy and moral outrage. Having now read this new book (published just before summer 2016) twice over a period of seven months, and in a presidential election year marked by near universal disgust and a shocking disdain for Truth, I confess that I feel as though I am reviewing two different books. book I picked up in May just because I loved the title-Better Living Through Criticism-has become for me a more enduring book because of its subtitle, How to Think About Art, Pleasure, Beauty, and Truth.First, who is this A. O. Scott? New York Times devotees will know him as one of the most trusted movie reviewers the paper has ever published, and academics will couple this credential with the equally important role he has played as Distinguished Professor of Film Criticism at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut. Scott's two lives-scholar and columnist- blend in this thoughtful exploration of the nature and meaning of criticism. Early on hear from some of The Greats (Samuel Taylor Coleridge, T. S. Eliot, H. L. Mencken, George Steiner, even Harold Bloom), and are invited to sit at the feet of Socrates in Plato's Symposium. Scott's summary of the impulse to create mirrors a human need to be critical: Our creativity originates in anguish and longing, and our creations, when contemplate them, seem alien and mysterious.. . .We doubt their value and question their meaning, and find ourselves by turns enthralled and puzzled by their power (p. 38).However, like much in this deeply balanced book, are given several more positive metanarratives for the origins of art and criticism. For Scott, science, above myth or religion, takes front stage in the modern era, and the project started when we found ourselves able to make things, and also, as a consequence, to judge them. Not unlike the original critic in Genesis, who cast his eye over what he made and decided it was good (p. 42).Judgment, that universally detested activity of our own day, plays significant roles in Better Living Through Criticism, and it is in this turn to living that Scott's book advances from cold theory to a practical essay-a sort of secular moral theology. You are spot-on if you sense that Immanuel Kant will appear strong in Scott's argument, and he does in a huge way. In an important chapter called The Eye of the Beholder, Scott offers Kant eleven pages to tell his story about judgment, both objective and subjective. Here learn about the universality of aesthetic judgments: When someone says something is beautiful, Scott then quotes Kant: ? …

The Politics of U.S. National Park Unit Creation: The Influence of Electoral Competition, Political Control, and Presidential Election Years

Conservation invokes a range of policy issues including questions of economics, recreation, public good, stewardship, and governance obligations. When U.S. legislators consider creating new National Park units, interrelated policy issues influence decisions about whether to support or oppose a new site. In this article, we explored the influence of electoral competition, political party in control, and presidential election year on the number of new National Park units created between 1934 and 2014. Electoral competition theory hypothesizes that as the congressional majority margin decreases (gets more competitive), politicians act in more strategic and less partisan ways. In this analysis, high electoral competition occurred if the party in power had less than a 55% majority; low electoral competition was defined as a 55% or more majority. Three conditions of political control were also examined: (a) Democrats controlled the Presidency and the House, (b) Republicans controlled the Presidency and the House, and (c) shared party control (one party controlled the Presidency and the other party controlled the House). The effect that presidential election years had on the number of new park units created was also considered. Results indicated that more park units were created during periods of low electoral competition ( M = 5.00) than high electoral competition ( M = 2.04), F (1, 79) = 7.24, p = .009, η = .084 (Hypothesis 1). In addition, there was evidence of partisanship (Hypothesis 2). When Democrats controlled both the Presidency and the House, an average of 5.55 new park units were created annually. When political control was shared, an average of 3.34 park units were created per year, and when Republicans were in control only one park unit on average was created annually, F (2, 78) = 3.54, p = .034, η = .289. More park units were created in presidential election years ( M = 5.02), than nonpresidential election years ( M = 2.06), F (1, 74) = 2.32, p = .024, η = .259 (Hypothesis 3). There was no evidence of interaction effects among the variables (contrary to Hypothesis 4). This research contributes to the existing literature on the development and growth of the National Park System by analyzing the role of electoral competition, political control, and presidential election years as they effect the creation of new National Park units. Subscribe to JPRA

The 2016 AANS Presidential Address: Leading the way.

This AANS presidential address focuses on enduring values of the neurosurgical profession that transcend the current political climate. The address was delivered by Dr. Batjer during a US presidential election year, but the authors have intentionally avoided discussing the current chaos of the American health care system in the knowledge that many pressing issues will change depending on the outcome of the 2016 elections. Instead, they have chosen to focus on clarifying what neurosurgeons, and the American Association of Neurological Surgeons, in particular, stand for; identifying important challenges to these fundamental principles and values; and proposing specific actions to address these challenges. The authors cite "de-professionalism" and commoditization of medicine as foremost among the threats that confront medicine and surgery today and suggest concrete action that can be taken to reverse these trends as well as steps that can be taken to address other significant challenges. They emphasize the importance of embracing exceptionalism and never compromising the standards that have characterized the profession of neurosurgery since its inception.

When Are Local Incumbents Held Accountable for Government Performance? Evidence from US School Districts

Do voters hold local officials accountable for government performance? Using over a decade of panel data on school district elections and academic achievement in California, I causally identify the effect of test score changes on school board incumbent re‐election rates and show that incumbents are more likely to win re‐election when test scores improve in their districts—but only in presidential election years. This effect disappears in midterm and off‐years, indicating that election timing might facilitate local government accountability.

Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?

Academic researchers and commentators have drawn attention to the potential link between heightened uncertainty experienced in a presidential election year and slower real economic activity. Our analysis looks at some of the key economic variables typically used by the NBER to date business cycles and compares the performance of these economic indicators between presidential election and non-election years since 1960. Our results suggest that the general argument that uncertainty during presidential election years results in slower economic activity does not hold water. In fact, based on our analysis, we find that several measures of economic activity are actually stronger during presidential election years.

The Koch Network and Republican Party Extremism

Presidential election years attract attention to the rhetoric, personalities, and agendas of contending White House aspirants, but these headlines do not reflect the ongoing political shifts that will confront whoever moves into the White House in 2017. Earthquakes and erosions have remade the U.S. political terrain, reconfiguring the ground on which politicians and social groups must maneuver, and it is important to make sure that narrow and short-term analyses do not blind us to this shifting terrain. We draw from research on changes since 2000 in the organizational universes surrounding the Republican and Democratic parties to highlight a major emergent force in U.S. politics: the recently expanded “Koch network” that coordinates big money funders, idea producers, issue advocates, and innovative constituency-building efforts in an ongoing effort to pull the Republican Party and agendas of U.S. politics sharply to the right. We review the major components and evolution of the Koch network and explore how it has reshaped American politics and policy agendas, focusing especially on implications for right-tilted partisan polarization and rising economic inequality.

MO-FG-BRB-04: Debater

Building on the energy and excitement of Washington DC in a presidential election year, AAPM will host its own Presidential Debate to better understand the views of the AAPM membership! Past presidents of the AAPM, Drs. Bayouth, Hazle, Herman, and Seibert, will debate hot topics in medical physics including issues facing education, professional practice, and the advancement of science. The moderators, Drs. Brock and Stern, will also draw in topics from Point-Counterpoint articles from the Medical Physics Journals. Wrapping up the debate, the audience will have the opportunity to question the candidates in a town hall format. At the conclusion of this lively debate, the winner will be decided by the audience, so bring your Audience Response Units! Be part of Medical Physics - Decision 2016! Learning Objectives: 1. Understand AAPM members’ views and opinions on issues facing medical physics education 2. Learn AAPM members’ views and opinions on issues facing professional practice 3. Identify AAPM members’ view and opinions on issues facing the advancement of science in medical physics J. Bayouth, Funding support from NCI;Scientific Advisory Board member - ViewRay

MO-FG-BRB-03: Debater

Building on the energy and excitement of Washington DC in a presidential election year, AAPM will host its own Presidential Debate to better understand the views of the AAPM membership! Past presidents of the AAPM, Drs. Bayouth, Hazle, Herman, and Seibert, will debate hot topics in medical physics including issues facing education, professional practice, and the advancement of science. The moderators, Drs. Brock and Stern, will also draw in topics from Point-Counterpoint articles from the Medical Physics Journals. Wrapping up the debate, the audience will have the opportunity to question the candidates in a town hall format. At the conclusion of this lively debate, the winner will be decided by the audience, so bring your Audience Response Units! Be part of Medical Physics - Decision 2016! Learning Objectives: 1. Understand AAPM members’ views and opinions on issues facing medical physics education 2. Learn AAPM members’ views and opinions on issues facing professional practice 3. Identify AAPM members’ view and opinions on issues facing the advancement of science in medical physics J. Bayouth, Funding support from NCI;Scientific Advisory Board member - ViewRay