Presidential Election Research Articles

Examining Mass Prophetic Failure: The Trump Prophets and the 2020 Presidential Election

Examining Mass Prophetic Failure: The Trump Prophets and the 2020 Presidential Election

Emotional aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election: a study of hindsight bias in younger and older adults

ABSTRACT Hindsight bias – also known as the knew-it-all-along effect – is a ubiquitous judgment error affecting decision makers. Hindsight bias has been shown to vary across age groups and as a function of contextual factors, such as the decision maker’s emotional state. Despite theoretical reasons why emotions might have a stronger impact on hindsight bias in older than in younger adults, age differences in hindsight bias for emotional events remain relatively underexplored. We examined emotion and hindsight bias in younger and older adults (N = 272) against the backdrop of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Participants predicted electoral college votes for the two presidential candidates before the election and were asked to remember their predictions approximately three weeks later, after the election results had been finalised. Republicans, for whom the electoral outcome was negatively tinged, exhibited greater hindsight bias for President Biden’s result compared with Democrats, for whom the electoral outcome was positive. The asymmetry in hindsight bias between Republicans and Democrats was similar for younger and older participants. This study suggests that negative emotions may exacerbate hindsight bias, and that adult age differences in hindsight bias observed in laboratory settings may not translate to real-world contexts.

The Donald Trump Factor and US-Ukrainian Relations (2017-2020): From Strategic Friendship to Cold Partnership

This article analyses the dynamics of relations between Ukraine and the United States under the presidency of Donald Trump, covering the approaches of the parties to bilateral cooperation, key events and issues. It describes in detail the main features of Washington’s policy towards Ukraine during this period, the factors that shaped it and the reasons for any contradictions involved. It is noted that the course of the Trump administration’s foreign policy towards Ukraine has been shaped by three factors: strong pressure from Congress, contradictions between the president and his foreign policy team, and public suspicions of collusion between Trump’s entourage and the Kremlin in the 2016 US presidential election, which was accompanied by a bitter domestic political struggle. With no room for manoeuvre in such circumstances, the Trump administration chose the safest course of action – to continue the policy of the Obama administration with certain tactical changes designed to demonstrate a more decisive stance than its predecessor. These involved a significant increase in economic and military assistance to Ukraine, including the provision of lethal weapons and the appointment of Kurt Volker as US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. Based on extensive empirical evidence, this paper also highlights the progress made and achievements with regard to cooperation in four areas that made up the Ukrainian-US relations agenda during the period covered: political dialogue, security, energy projects and the fight against corruption. The author shows that the contradictory nature of US policy towards Ukraine under Trump comprised a combination of a significant increase in military assistance and a decrease in the intensity of high-level political contacts.

Analyzing Public Discourse on the Affordable Care Act through YouTube Comments

Abstract Introduction Social media’s pervasive role in daily life provides a unique avenue for understanding public sentiments. This study utilizes YouTube comments on an MSNBC video about the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to explore public opinions on the policy and its political implications. Methods A qualitative analysis of YouTube comments on an MSNBC video was conducted. Netlytic, a scraping tool, gathered 1,949 comments. Thematic analysis, based on a coding framework derived from Semetko and Valkenburg’s frames, identified three predominant frames: Responsibility, Human Interest, and Economic Consequences. Results Of the 1949 comments posted in response to the ACA video on YouTube, 488 were analyzed. Three media frames were used to categorize the comments. Among the analyzed comments, 42% fell within the Responsibility Frame, indicating that 205 comments attributed responsibility for ACA-related issues, healthcare access, and costs to political parties, individual politicians, and government entities. The Human-Interest Frame accounted for 11% of the comments, with 53 remarks reflecting individual experiences related to healthcare access and costs. Additionally, 26% of the comments fell within the Economic Consequences Frame, signifying those 125 comments included remarks concerning the economic impacts of the ACA, such as increased healthcare access, taxes, and penalties. The remaining 21% of comments did not align with the three frames. Conclusions This study embarked on a comprehensive exploration of public discourse surrounding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) within the context of the 2024 presidential election, utilizing YouTube comments as a rich source of qualitative data. Through a meticulous methodological approach, which included thematic framing analysis and intercoder reliability assessments, valuable insights into the diverse perspectives and sentiments expressed by social media users regarding this critical healthcare legislation were gained. Key messages • Social media allows for real-time understanding of people’s thoughts, beliefs, opinions, and ideas, as well as serves as a useful tool that fosters broad, unfiltered data/content. • Researchers conducted a qualitative analysis of public discourse on YouTube to explore the range of sentiments regarding the ACA.

On the Prospects of Security in Europe: Reflections on the Baltic Defence Conference 2023, Vilnius

The arguments made in this article are divided in three sections. First, the analysis looks at some of the immediate security-related concerns that have come to shape the Baltic Sea region. The second section branches out from the Baltic confines and takes into account the impact that the so-called CRINK states (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) have gained on the war against Ukraine through their support for Russia. This has turned the war into a broader conflagration than most observers have admitted for an extended period. Finally, the analysis cautiously addresses some of the imponderabilities provided by the upcoming presidential election in the United States.

From Tourism to Propaganda Tactics: Unveiling the PRC’s Influence on Palau’s Electoral Landscape

This article argues that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is leveraging a combination of economic influence, political coercion, and disinformation tactics to sway the outcome of Palau’s 2024 presidential election. With the currently favored candidate reportedly being tied to Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-linked individuals and publicly promoting PRC narratives, it is critical to highlight the PRC’s influence tactics—such as propaganda, censorship, international partnerships, and financial pressures—that are being employed to achieve its goals. The article first offers a brief overview of the PRC’s actions and aims in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting Palau’s significance to the PRC and the United States. Next, the author summarizes the PRC’s multiple forms of economic influence in the region, such as monopolizing tourism, buying land, engaging in bribery, encouraging illegal activities, and exploiting U.S. missteps. Then, after introducing Palau’s presidential candidates, the article delves into PRC information operations and tactics. It also examines key findings of PRC interference in other recent regional elections, such as in Taiwan and the Philippines, and analyzes what tactics were used, if they were effective, and how these tactics could be adapted to be successfully implemented in Palau. The article concludes with predictive analysis of the PRC’s potential actions in Palau, such as information operations, including amplifying local conflicts, using local media as proxies, and creating artificial intelligence (AI)-generated content, as well as listing potential countermeasures that could be implemented in Palau to combat PRC information advances, such as education programs for students and journalists, misinformation debunking campaigns, and implementing legislation to counter misinformation campaigns.

The Great Lockdown and Economic Voting: Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on the 2020 US Presidential Election

The 2020 US presidential election was won by Democrat challenger Joseph Biden over Republican incumbent Donald Trump and was contested during the global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Unemployment increased sharply during the pandemic but was followed by a large federal relief package. We investigate whether there was economic voting in the 2020 election, that is, whether the increased unemployment rate and the subsequent government response during the pandemic affected Trump’s vote negatively or positively overall. We examine 48 states (by excluding Alaska, Hawaii, and DC). Using a triple-differences (DDD) model (that is, examining changes in a candidate’s county-level vote-share depending on the change in unemployment and historical Republican-Democrat partisanship), we predict what would have happened if the increase in unemployment rate in between March and October 2020 had been more modest. Although many states show significant negative expected impacts on the Trump vote, we predict that only when when the unemployment rates experience little change during the pandemic would overall results have swung in the incumbent’s favour – and only then in Arizona and Georgia.

Immigration in the 2024 US presidential election campaign: policy stalemate, disinformation, and a call for mass deportation

Immigration has been one of the most contentious and defining issues of the 2024 presidential election, rivaled only by economic policy and national security. The Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, has largely succeeded in setting the terms of the debate – hammering away at his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, with hyperbolic claims that she supports “open borders” and false accusations that the US is experiencing a wave of violent crime committed by migrants. Trump’s immigration rhetoric relies increasingly on lies, misinformation, and racist stereotypes. But his claim that immigration is “out of control” – and his insistence that firm measures are needed to address it – have become central to the Republican platform, and one of Trump’s most frequently repeated campaign promises is that he will deport millions of undocumented immigrants soon after taking office. Why is immigration such a controversial issue in the US? How have the different administrations dealt with it? Is it an overused issue in this campaign?

How does the consent model in Australia’s Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) undermine our human right to privacy?

ABSTRACT Cambridge Analytica was a political consulting business that became known for its use of personal data obtained from social media platform Facebook, to drive election campaigns on behalf of its clients. Their most famous client was the winner of the 2016 US Presidential election. When it was realised that Cambridge Analytica had acquired Australian Facebook users’ data, the Australian privacy regulator started litigation against Facebook to enforce the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth). This article examines how the Facebook litigation and subsequent law reform activities shed light on the central, yet fictitious role of the consent model. A historical and cultural analysis reveals how consent to surrender private information is a symptom of social conditions in which we take it for granted that individuals, rather than business, will bear the costs of poor privacy outcomes. Our collective ‘consent realism’ not only constrains the imagination of policy makers but interferes with a person’s autonomy in forming and developing opinions. However, a right to privacy can be more viably re-asserted, at least in response to the Cambridge Analytica incident, within the framework of Australia’s implied freedom of political communication. Consent realism can thus potentially be overcome in favour of human rights principles.

Presidential elections in the United States and the transatlantic agenda

Presidential elections in the United States and the transatlantic agenda

The Point of No Return: A Review Essay

Abstract Thomas Byrne Edsall is one of America's finest political journalists and a foremost amplifier of the work of political scientists and other scholars. Academic research bolsters his argument in virtually every chapter of The Point of No Return. The book is a collection of his New York Times columns, bookended by a new introduction and conclusion, spanning the period from Donald Trump's rise in the 2016 election to his attempt to overturn the presidential election four years later. A remarkable feature of Edsall's columns is how quickly he diagnosed emerging developments that would come to define our politics, including the Republican Establishment's rapid descent, Trump's unwavering and cult-like following, the pernicious effects of disinformation, the Democratic Party's inept response to social and cultural change, and the likelihood that Trump would not surrender power peacefully if he lost the 2020 election. A running theme throughout the book is the danger that Trump poses to the nation's democracy. The Point of No Return is the latest book in the four-decade career of a journalist who regularly has enlarged our understanding of American politics.

The Coming US Presidential Elections: Prospects and Challenges for Russia

The upcoming 2024 US presidential elections will have a tremendous impact on the nations’ domestic and foreign policies. The Republican and Democrat presidential nominees Donald Trump and Kamala Harris hold completely opposite views on a number of key electoral issues. One of these issues is particularly important for Russian national interests — the US involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The multiple patterns of factional influence: Evidence from the 2021 LDP presidential election

AbstractTraditionally, factions and seniority determined who became President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and, thus, Japan's Prime Minister. Since the electoral reform of 1994, however, some scholars have argued that the role of factions has declined, and this has led to ongoing debates over the extent to which factions and other factors have helped determine who will become the leader of Japan's LDP. Using data from the 2021 LDP Presidential election, we find that it is not policy but factional affiliations that matter for LDP members in selecting their leader. In addition to this finding, we disaggregate faction and show that the influence of this political institution in LDP Presidential elections varies across different factions. We also find that electorally weaker LDP incumbents are more likely to support a candidate who is more popular among Japanese voters in general.

Legacy of the Religious Right and the U.S. Presidential Election of 1980

Political parties have evolved throughout the history of the United States, yet we have never seen such a polarizing state of politics as we see in 2024. Through the use of academic journals and speeches, this paper explains the turbulent state of U.S. politics by exploring the increased involvement of the Religious Right in politics. Starting with the history of the Religious Right and focusing on the U.S. presidential election in 1980, this paper outlines how the increased activity of the Religious Right has caused a divide in American politics. It will discuss how the presidential election of 1980 solidified a religious voting bloc. The paper also reviews the increased use of religious rhetoric especially during George W. Bush’s presidency (2001-2009). This paper finds that the inclusion of religion in secular matters has proven to be provocative. Yet, the Religious Right strives to protect the “traditional family” by encouraging participation in politics, especially on topics such as abortion, women’s rights, and gay rights.

The Social Psychological Explanations for the Effects of Social Media Marketing and Traditional Media on Voting Intentions

ABSTRACT Politicians use social media to drive voting intentions. The authors draw on self-enhancement and uncertainty reduction elements of social identity theory to present a framework that merges media data and social media sentiment toward the candidate to predict voting intentions. The authors estimate econometric models to data collected during the Brazilian presidential elections. The results support the influence of posts’ sentiment toward the candidate, owned social media, earned social media, and the candidate’s number of followers. They unveil social psychological pathways in driving intentions: a self-enhancement, an uncertainty reduction path, and an interaction between candidate’s number of followers and traditional earned media.

Political Labeling on Social Media: a Netnographic Study of “SDM Rendah” in Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election on X (Twitter)

The 2024 presidential election campaign in Indonesia has produced various unique phenomena, including the emergence of the "Low Human Resources'' (SDM Rendah) label directed at the supporters of candidate pair 02 by the supporters of candidate pairs 01 and 03. The existence of this label has become a spotlight because it reflects the dynamics of politics and social interaction within the community. In conducting the netnographic research strategy in this study, the primary focus is on gaining a deep understanding of the underlying reasons for this labeling, as well as how it affects public perception and the overall political dynamics. The social media platform X was selected as the research subject due to its crucial role in facilitating communicative interaction, including the labeling process. It is expected that the results of this research can provide deeper insights into the phenomenon of labeling in the political realm on the X social media platform, as well as provide a better understanding for politicians and the public regarding the importance of using social media platforms wisely in the political context. This research also has significant academic implications in the field of communication science, particularly in the theory of Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC), which can contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of social media in contemporary politics. The practical implications cannot be overlooked either, especially in the efforts to raise awareness of the power and impact of social media platforms in the political context during the 2024 presidential campaign in Indonesia.

Sentiment Analysis of the MK Decision Trial of the Result of the 2024 President and Vice President General Election on Social Media X Using the Support Vector Machine Method

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a method of machine learning often used in classification and regression issues, especially in the classification of commentary reviews on social media such as Twitter. The Constitutional Court (MK) has the authority to resolve disputes resulting from the general election, including the 2024 presidential election. As an institution that maintains fairness and transparency in the democratic process, the Constitutional Court's decisions are often at the center of public attention and debate, especially on social media. In the 2024 general election, various allegations of fraud led to protests from several parties who felt aggrieved. The final and binding Constitutional Court's decision is expected to resolve the conflict that arises, but it often does not satisfy all parties, causing political and social tensions. This conflict can be reflected through public opinion expressed on social media, such as Twitter, where various responses and sentiments to the decision are essential analysis materials. This Research uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm with a dataset of 1383 review comments divided by an 80:20 ratio for training and testing. The system was implemented using the Python programming language, with evaluations showing the highest accuracy at 61.00%, precision at 61.00%, and recall at 62.00%. This study aims to analyze public sentiment regarding the Constitutional Court's decision using the SVM method and identify the tendency of public opinion as positive, negative, or neutral. Through this study, it is expected that a deeper understanding of the public's perception of the Constitutional Court's decision is obtained. In addition, this Research is likely to contribute to developing sentiment analysis methods in the future and provide a basis for recommendations for the Constitutional Court in handling election result disputes better.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

Populist desires, nostalgic narratives: the Marcos golden age myth and manipulation of collective memories on YouTube

ABSTRACT This article investigates the Marcos golden age narratives on YouTube before the 2022 Philippine presidential elections. Despite evidence of brutality during the Marcos years, many Filipinos reminisce about his tenure as a period of peace and progress, influenced by selective historical accounts propagated through digital media. Expanding Laclau's theory of populism, we identify affective storytelling techniques prominent pro-Marcos YouTubers employ to glorify the Marcos era and examine them to understand how the populist logic of difference and equivalence guides the articulation of a romanticized past and endorses the vilification of elites and Marcos critics. Our analysis underscores the potency of nostalgia in populist and authoritarian politics, demonstrating their capacity to foster a collective yearning for a mythic past and stoke a collective desire for Marcos-brand authoritarianism. Ultimately, this article contributes to understanding the dynamics of historical revisionism and its implications for political discourse and historical consciousness in the digital age, emphasizing the role of YouTubers in shaping political landscapes through nostalgia and the manipulation of social memory.

Conservative turn and political identity: challenges to democracy in Indonesia after presidential election 2019

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to examine the conservative shift and identity politics: challenges to democracy in Indonesia after the 2019 presidential election. In this research, the author uses a political sociology approach as a perspective in conducting the analysis. The research method in this study uses a qualitative approach by emphasizing literature review data or literature studies related to the theme in the article. The available data is used as the basis for exploration by using sentences that are connected to form phrases and qualitative analysis. It is known that in political life, ethnic identity is used as a vote banker. Meanwhile, Islamic conservatism and populism are religious forces that disrupt electoral democracy. Issues of identity politics, conservatism, and Islamic populism will continue to grow if moderate Islamic forces such as Muhammadiyah and NU do not emerge in political and religious life.