Pre-industrial Period Research Articles

Foraminifera and geomicrobiology as indicators of the environmental recovery in a mangrove affected by oil spills in the Guanabara Bay (Brazil)

Foraminifera could be used as indicators to evaluate the impacts of oil spills because the crude oil causes several disturbances on the development and reproduction of the species. However, little is known about the relationship between mangrove species and this pollutant. Foraminiferal assemblages were studied in 22 surface sediment samples collected from a mangrove in Guanabara Bay (Brazil) that was severely impacted by an oil spill six years earlier. The foraminiferal responses to the environmental stress helped to determine the most degraded areas. Elevated concentrations of aromatic compounds and potentially bioavailable heavy metals, with contamination levels up to nine times higher compared to the pre-industrial period in the Guanabara Bay. The dominance of anaerobic bacteria, and high esterase enzyme activity (ESTE) suggest that the bacterial community is metabolizing the hydrocarbons in the sediments. Despite these stressors, density and diversity of living foraminifera are comparable to values observed in less impacted Brazilian mangroves. Species distribution patterns reveal an environmental gradient across the mangrove with numerous species increasing their relative abundance towards the areas topographically lower and with higher levels of pollutants and ESTE. Specifically, Caronia exilis, Tiphotrocha comprimata, Ammobaculites exiguus, Textularia paranaguaensis, Ammotium cassis, Ammobaculites dilatatus, Polyssaccamina hipohalina, Siphotrochammina lobata, Ammonia tepida, Ammotium morenoi, Miliammina fusca, Entzia macrescens, Trochammina squamata and Paratrochammina clossi are inferred as pollution-tolerant taxa. This integrated geochemical, microbiological and ecological approach applied to assess the sediment quality in a complex ecosystem has important implications for the use of living foraminifera in recovery stage assessments and biomonitoring plans.

MODERN TRENDS IN GLOBAL ENERGY IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND DECARBONIZATION

The article presents data from authoritative international organizations on the noticeable change in the planet's climate compared to the pre-industrial period. It is emphasized that in recent years, climate change has become especially intense. One of the results of climate change is the increase in the frequency and destructive effects of hurricanes in various parts of the planet, droughts and crop losses in agriculture, floods, and rising sea levels, which leads to large economic losses. An important area of decarbonization of the global economy is the production of electricity using climate-neutral energy sources. The article provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of the efficiency of traditional large nuclear reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs). Significant technological, environmental and economic advantages of SMRs are noted. A comprehensive model for the development of global energy in the context of decarbonization is proposed, which includes innovative areas: SMRs, large nuclear power plants, wind, solar energy and the use of biofuels.

Water budget of the Caspian Sea by numerical experiments with ocean circulation model INMIO-CICE in the last glacial maximum and pre-industrial period

We used the hydrodynamic model of the Caspian Sea, INMIO-CICE, to calculate equilibrium river runoff and evaporation from the sea surface over a wide range of sea levels (from –85 to +50 m asl) for different climatic conditions: the Last Glacial Maximum (about 21kyr) and pre-industrial climate (~1850 CE). Data from the climate model INMCM4.8 were used as boundary conditions. It was found that to maintain sea level at 35–50 m asl, corresponding to the maximum values of the Khvalynian transgression, a river runoff of about 400 km3/year was required in the Last Glacial Maximum. In the Last Glacial Maximum evaporation from the sea surface decreased by 105–170 mm (12–22%), and precipitation, according to the INMCM4.8 model, by 50–70 mm (15–30%). This caused the equilibrium runoff to decrease by about 10–20% compared to pre-industrial conditions. Smaller absolute and relative changes correspond to lower sea levels. The maximum decrease in evaporation occurred at 5 m asl.

Insights into the Australian mid-Holocene climate using downscaled climate models

Abstract. The mid-Holocene climate of Australia and the equatorial tropics of the Indonesian–Australian monsoon region is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Each model is used to simulate the pre-industrial (1850) and the mid-Holocene (6000 years before 1950) climate. The results of these four simulations are compared to existing bioclimatic modelling of temperature and precipitation. The finer-resolution WRF simulations reduce the bias between the model and bioclimatic data results for three of the four variables available in the proxy data set. The model results show that temperatures over southern Australia at the mid-Holocene and in the pre-industrial period were similar, and temperatures were slightly warmer during the mid-Holocene over northern Australia and into the tropics compared to the pre-industrial. During the mid-Holocene, precipitation was generally reduced over northern Australia and in the Indonesian–Australian monsoon region, particularly during summertime. The results highlight the improved value of using finer-resolution models such as WRF to simulate the palaeoclimate.

Study of political developments in democratic, communist and dictatorial systems and their impact on power, governance and human rights

In the current era, the world is experiencing profound political and economic shifts, marking a departure from the norms that dominated the pre-industrial period. Notably, the dissolution of feudal and communal systems, which were emblematic of an economy rooted in pastoral ideologies, has been underway since the French Revolution. This transformative period has not only reshaped global dynamics but also led to the reconstitution of modern state structures within the context of institutional states. This research delves into the evolving patterns of political changes and their economic repercussions in the contemporary global landscape. Our study aims to decipher the dynamics of international transformations within the global political arena and explore their interconnections with the emerging world order. Furthermore, we have endeavored to trace the philosophical political roots that underpinned these economic systems, examining their genesis and subsequent influence on political developments across various regimes, with a particular focus on implications for human rights. An analytical methodology underpins our examination of these political transformations. Central to our inquiry is the following pivotal question: What is the impact of developments in political and economic systems in the contemporary world on authority, governance, and human rights? To address this question, we deemed it necessary to discuss three topics related to political transformation, presenting an analysis for each of the following axes: 1-Circumstances and history of modern political transformations. 2-Modern political demands, compared to advanced political aspirations. 3-Human rights, between liberal propaganda and democracy. Our findings reveal that political variables have undergone substantial changes that significantly influence political ideologies, the conceptualization of authority, and human rights considerations. Among these influential factors are: Globalization and Technology: Technological advancements and the expansion of global communications via the Internet have opened new avenues for political discourse and interaction. This development transcends local boundaries, positioning politics as a globally interconnected phenomenon. Social and Cultural Transformations: There has been a significant shift in social and cultural paradigms, particularly in the heightened awareness of human rights. This shift has broadened the scope of political thought and necessitated the integration of these issues into both national and international political dialogues. Economic Transformations: The evolution of economic structures, spurred by technological progress and globalization, has profound implications for political theories concerning the equitable distribution of wealth, economic opportunities, poverty alleviation, and addressing economic disparities.

Contrast in Secondary Organic Aerosols between the Present Day and the Preindustrial Period: The Importance of Nontraditional Sources and the Changed Atmospheric Oxidation Capability

Contrast in Secondary Organic Aerosols between the Present Day and the Preindustrial Period: The Importance of Nontraditional Sources and the Changed Atmospheric Oxidation Capability

Changes in the Asian ITCZ During the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum, and the Mid‐Holocene

AbstractWe investigate the position and intensity changes of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Asia (50°E−135°E) relative to the preindustrial period annually and seasonally during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid‐Holocene (MH) using available models from phases 3 and 4 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. The multi‐model mean shows that the June–July–August ITCZ variations generally dominate the annual changes. The Asian ITCZ shifts northward over western Asia and southward over the eastern side in both the LIG and MH, and the opposite occurs in the LGM. Its intensity varies with longitude similarly for the LIG and MH and generally weakens in the LGM. Precipitation changes associated directly with ITCZ indices are primarily caused by the dynamic term in the LIG and MH, while both dynamic and thermodynamic terms play roles in the LGM, with major contributions from the convergence components.

Ra isotope perspective on the hydrology and continuity of permafrost in the high Arctic

The continuous permafrost in the valleys of Svalbard is dotted by pingos, which are small hills formed by the near surface freezing of ascending groundwater. In this study, we used 3H and Ra isotopes to inquire into the sub-surface residence time of groundwater discharging at these pingos. While its low 3H suggests that the pingo-associated groundwater is basically not modern (i.e. older than 60 years), Ra isotopes imply that most water has an underground residence time of several hundred years. This is deduced from the lower than equilibrium ratios (activity ratios<21.7) of the long-lived to short-lived 226Ra/223Ra. Since the freezing age of the main body of permafrost in this area is >4000 years, the presence of younger water at depth suggests that the aquifer has been recharged after permafrost formation, which could take place via faults or through the non-frozen base of wet glaciers. This active hydrology suggests that permafrost in the valleys of Svalbard was at least locally discontinuous during the Late Holocene, with likely further implications to the release of greenhouse gases during the pre-industrial period.

Late pre-industrial production and consumption in poor rural households (north-eastern Catalonia, 1750-1807)

This paper examines domestic production and consumption in poor rural households from north-eastern Catalonia during the second half of the eighteenth century. Using a database of probate inventories, a criterion was established to determine which of them corresponded to humble households and conduct a comprehensive analysis. The results suggest that at the end of the pre-industrial period, these domestic units had only limited access to land ownership and little involvement in domestic production activities, but their consumption patterns were improving. They incorporated new items related to eating habits, such as spoons, forks, and napkins. This apparent contradiction between production and consumption is discussed in relation to historiographical debates about the Industrious Revolution and the Consumer Revolution.

Comparison of different drivers on energy systems investment dynamics to achieve the energy transition goals

The signing of the Paris Agreement represents a consensus on limiting the increase of the average global temperature compared to the preindustrial period. The European Union has set an ambitious goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. By 2030, the European Commission's REPowerEU plan aims to accelerate the processes of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, reducing energy use, and, at the same time, diversifying energy sources and increasing electricity connectivity between member states.In order to achieve the stated goals, future energy systems will be based on renewable energy sources, which are characterized by production variability. Such systems require flexibilization technologies that ensure security and stability of supply. In this study, an analysis of how different fuel and technology costs, as well as policy targets, influence the pace of the energy transition dynamic was made on the case study of Croatia, as there was no such previous investigation. Therefore, the goal of the research is to identify the most prominent driver to achieve energy transition targets in Croatia, with an emphasis on the required flexibilization technologies. The investigation has been implemented in the energy planning tool H2RES, a detailed open-source long-term optimization model in a five-year step model based on scenario analysis of different RES and CO2 targets, technology costs, and fuel prices. The results reveal a need for an ambitious energy policy if the goal is to achieve full energy system decarbonization. Currently, high carbon prices and lower technology costs won't be enough to lead the energy transition, without legislative support.

Non-Linear Socio-Cultural Strategies for Managing the Society's Development: Problems of Conceptualisation in the Context of Cultural and Religious Diversity

Introduction. The relevance of the study is due to the diversity of modern society and the complexity of conceptualising its management strategies. Purpose and methods. The purpose of the article is a philosophical analysis of non-linear concepts and strategies for managing the society's development in the context of cultural and religious diversity. The methodological basis of the study is the dialectical principle of cognition, system-synergetic, historical, cultural, and interdisciplinary approaches to the study of the management laws of society development. Results. The essence of non-linear theory and strategy as an alternative expression of the universal pattern of society development is revealed. The article analyses the genesis of non-linear conceptions of society development in the pre-industrial period. Non-linear strategies of social development in the era of industrialism are considered. Non-linear strategies of social development at the stage of late industrialism are highlighted. The meaning of the socio-cultural identity strategies of societies is clarified. The strategies of the original development of society in the cultures of Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism are substantiated. The peculiarities of the original development strategy of society in the culture of Japanese Shinto Buddhism are revealed. Conclusions. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in deepening the theoretical foundations of non-linear strategic management of the development of societies of the Eastern and Middle Worlds, and their significance lies in supplementing science with new knowledge about non-linear strategies of development management in these societies.

Analysis Of Carbonate Chemistry Parameters And Impact Of Anthropogenic CO2 On Ocean Acidification In Selected Coastline Sites Of Ghana

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolved into seawater at coastline has shown some effect on oceanic acidification after the preindustrial period. The coastline surrounded with human activities results to oceans acidity that has proven to affect the oceans’ calcifying organisms. This study was conducted in three selected landing beach sites of Ghana coastline to determine the concentrations of CO2, carbonate ions (CO32- ), partial pressures of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and pH for 12 months, and the impact of anthropogenic CO2 on oceanic the oceanic acidification from the sampled sites within the year. The result from sampled sites showed that dissolved CO2 concentration and other evaluated parameters were clearly different in each month and at every sampled site. High CO2 concentration was determined in the months of January and February, and June from different sites. Total mean amount per a year for the sites showed a dissolved CO2 concentration of 16.19 ± 1.73, CO32- concentration of 143.21 ± 21.12 µmol/kg, pCO2 of 600.36 ± 131.92 and pH of 8.01 ± 0.20. Correlation relationship showed an increase of anthropogenic CO2 dissolved into seawater decreased pH at all the study sites, indicating that ocean acidification of seawater at the sites had increased from earlier projections. It was therefore concluded that the anthropogenic CO2 at sites induces rise of ocean acidification, which could pose danger to marine organisms in the studied areas. Continue decrease of pH low harvest of fishes and the calcification rates of other sea organisms

Anthropogenic eutrophication and stratification strength control hypoxia in the Yangtze Estuary

Many large estuaries are threatened by intensifying hypoxia. However, due to the limited duration of available observations, uncertainties persist regarding the level of contemporary hypoxia intensity in a longer-term context and the relative contributions of climate versus human factors. Here we present sediment records for the hypoxia intensity and associated environmental parameters in the Yangtze Estuary over the past three centuries. The results show that the hypoxia intensity has been increasing during the last half century due to anthropogenic eutrophication, but the current hypoxia condition is not as severe as some preindustrial periods due to weaker stratification in the water column. Our findings suggest that if anthropogenic and climatic forcing coincide in the foreseeable future, the hypoxia intensity of the Yangtze Estuary may reach unprecedented levels.

Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles.

Warming drives dissolved organic carbon export from pristine alpine soils

Despite decades of research, the influence of climate on the export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soil remains poorly constrained, adding uncertainty to global carbon models. The limited temporal range of contemporary monitoring data, ongoing climate reorganisation and confounding anthropogenic activities muddy the waters further. Here, we reconstruct DOC leaching over the last ~14,000 years using alpine environmental archives (two speleothems and one lake sediment core) across 4° of latitude from Te Waipounamu/South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand. We selected broadly comparable palaeoenvironmental archives in mountainous catchments, free of anthropogenically-induced landscape changes prior to ~1200 C.E. We show that warmer temperatures resulted in increased allochthonous DOC export through the Holocene, most notably during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO), which was some 1.5–2.5 °C warmer than the late pre-industrial period—then decreased during the cooler mid-Holocene. We propose that temperature exerted the key control on the observed doubling to tripling of soil DOC export during the HCO, presumably via temperature-mediated changes in vegetative soil C inputs and microbial degradation rates. Future warming may accelerate DOC export from mountainous catchments, with implications for the global carbon cycle and water quality.

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Attribution of extreme climate events to global climate change as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly important. Extreme climate events arise at the intersection of natural climate variability and a forced response of the Earth system to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which may alter the frequency and severity of such events. Accounting for the effects of both natural climate variability and the forced response to anthropogenic climate change is thus central for the attribution. Here, we investigate the reproducibility of probabilistic extreme event attribution results under more explicit representations of natural climate variability. We employ well-established methodologies deployed in statistical Earth System Model emulators to represent natural climate variability as informed from its spatio-temporal covariance structures. Two approaches towards representing natural climate variability are investigated: (1) where natural climate variability is treated as a single component; and (2) where natural climate variability is disentangled into its annual and seasonal components. We showcase our approaches by attributing the 2022 Indo-Pakistani heatwave to human-induced climate change. We find that explicit representation of annual and seasonal natural climate variability increases the overall uncertainty in attribution results considerably compared to established approaches such as the World Weather Attribution Initiative. The increase in likelihood of such an event occurring as a result of global warming differs slightly between the approaches, mainly due to different assessments of the pre-industrial return periods. Our approach that explicitly resolves annual and seasonal natural climate variability indicates a median increase in likelihood by a factor of 41 (95% range: 6-603). We find a robust signal of increased likelihood and intensification of the event with increasing global warming levels across all approaches. Compared to its present likelihood, under 1.5 °C (2 °C) of global near-surface air temperature increase relative to pre-industrial temperatures, the likelihood of the event would be between 2.2 to 2.5 times (8 to 9 times) higher. We note that regardless of the different statistical approaches to represent natural variability, the outcomes on the conducted event attribution are similar, with minor differences mainly in the uncertainty ranges. Possible reasons for differences are evaluated, including limitations of the proposed approach for this type of application, as well as the specific aspects in which it can provide complementary information to established approaches.

Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change

Abstract. In drought-prone Australia, multi-year droughts have detrimental impacts on both the natural environment and human societies. For responsible water management, we need a thorough understanding of the full range of variability in multi-year droughts and how this might change in a warming world. But research into the long-term frequency, persistence, and severity of Australian droughts is limited. This is partly due to the length of the observational record, which is short relative to the timescales of hydroclimatic variability and hence may not capture the range of possible variability. Using simulations of Australian precipitation over the full past millennium (850–2000), we characterise the nature of multi-year meteorological droughts across Australia and include a particular focus on the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), the largest agricultural region in Australia. We find that simulated Australian droughts in the 20th century (1900–2000) are within the bounds of pre-industrial natural variability in terms of drought intensity, severity, and frequency. A tendency for droughts to last longer in southwestern and eastern Australia (including the MDB) in the 20th century, compared with the pre-industrial period, suggests an emerging anthropogenic influence, consistent with projected rainfall changes in these regions. Large volcanic eruptions tend to promote drought-free intervals in the MDB. Model simulations of droughts over the last millennium suggest that future droughts across Australia could be much longer than what was experienced in the 20th century, even without any human influence. With the addition of anthropogenic climate change, which favours drought conditions across much of southern Australia due to reduced cool-season rainfall, it is likely that future droughts in Australia will exceed recent historical experience.

Understanding climate changes in East Asia and Europe based on spatial climate analogs

Spatial climate analogs effectively illustrate how a location’s climate may become more similar to that of other locations from the historical period to future projections. Also, novel climates (emerging climate conditions significantly different from the past) have been analyzed as they may result in significant and unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study analyzes historical to future spatial climate analogs across East Asia and Europe, in the context of climatic impacts on ecology and human health, respectively. Firstly, the results of climate analogs analysis for ecological impacts indicate that major cities in East Asia and Europe have generally experienced novel climates and climate shifts originating from southern/warmer regions from the early 20th century to the current period, primarily attributed to extensive warming. In future projections, individual cities are not expected to experience additional significant climate change under a 1.5 °C global warming (warming relative to pre-industrial period), compared to the contemporary climate. In contrast, robust local climate change and climate shifts from southern/warmer regions are expected at 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C global warming levels. Specially, under the 3.0 °C global warming, unprecedented (newly emerging) climate analogs are expected to appear in a few major cities. The climate analog of future projections partially align with growing season length projections, demonstrating important implications on ecosystems. Human health-relevant climate analogs exhibit qualitatively similar results from the historical period to future projections, suggesting an increasing risk of climate-driven impacts on human health. However, distinctions emerge in the specifics of the climate analogs analysis results concerning ecology and human health, emphasizing the importance of considering appropriate climate variables corresponding to the impacts of climate change. Our results of climate analogs present extensive information of climate change signals and spatiotemporal trajectories, which provide important indicators for developing appropriate adaptaion plans as the planet warms.

Evaluating the climatic state of Indian Summer Monsoon during the mid-Pliocene period using CMIP6 model simulations

The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) plays a critical role in agriculture, thereby significantly affecting the economy of India. Yet, there is a large spread in the ISMR variability for future projections (by the end of 21st century) as simulated by coupled general circulation models. Gaining insight into the variations of the ISMR during warm periods could enhance our ability to understand ISMR variability in the future. In this study, we have selected the mid-Pliocene warm period from 3.0 to 3.3 million years ago (Ma), which has similar external forcing (orbital parameters) comparable to the end of the 21st century. To evaluate the ISMR mean state during the mid-Pliocene, we have used six available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations and their multi-model ensemble mean. Our analysis suggests that the ensemble of CMIP6 models is better than individual models in capturing the ISM rainfall patterns and its characteristics for the historical period of 1914–2013. During the mid-Pliocene, we find an increase in the JJAS rainfall over most parts of India in comparison to the pre-industrial period with an increase of 34% in seasonal precipitation. This higher precipitation conditions during the mid-Pliocene is accompanied by thermo dynamical (higher CO2 forcing led to higher tropospheric temperature and higher precipitable water) and dynamical (larger tropospheric temperature gradient between Indian landmass and southern Indian Ocean corresponds to enhanced moisture transport, enhanced low-level cross-equatorial flow and intensified Monsoon Hadley Circulation) aspects.