Pre-industrial Period Research Articles

Expectations for the Role of Hydrogen and Its Derivatives in Different Sectors through Analysis of the Four Energy Scenarios: IEA-STEPS, IEA-NZE, IRENA-PES, and IRENA-1.5°C

Recently, worldwide, the attention being paid to hydrogen and its derivatives as alternative carbon-free (or low-carbon) options for the electricity sector, the transport sector, and the industry sector has increased. Several projects in the field of low-emission hydrogen production (particularly electrolysis-based green hydrogen) have either been constructed or analyzed for their feasibility. Despite the great ambitions announced by some nations with respect to becoming hubs for hydrogen production and export, some quantification of the levels at which hydrogen and its derived products are expected to penetrate the global energy system and its various demand sectors would be useful in order to judge the practicality and likelihood of these ambitions and future targets. The current study aims to summarize some of the expectations of the level at which hydrogen and its derivatives could spread into the global economy, under two possible future scenarios. The first future scenario corresponds to a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway, where the world proceeds with the same existing policies and targets related to emissions and low-carbon energy transition. This forms a lower bound for the level of the role of hydrogen and its penetration into the global energy system. The second future scenario corresponds to an emission-conscious pathway, where governments cooperate to implement the changes necessary to decarbonize the economy by 2050 in order to achieve net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (carbon neutrality), and thus limit the rise in the global mean surface temperature to 1.5 °C by 2100 (compared to pre-industrial periods). This forms an upper bound for the level of the role of hydrogen and its penetration into the global energy system. The study utilizes the latest release of the annual comprehensive report WEO (World Energy Outlook—edition year 2023, the 26th edition) of the IEA (International Energy Agency), as well as the latest release of the annual comprehensive report WETO (World Energy Transitions Outlook—edition year 2023, the third edition) of the IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). For the IEA-WEO report, the business-as-usual situation is STEPS (Stated “Energy” Policies Scenario), and the emissions-conscious situation is NZE (Net-Zero Emissions by 2050). For the IRENA-WETO report, the business-as-usual situation is the PES (Planned Energy Scenario), and the emissions-conscious situation is the 1.5°C scenario. Through the results presented here, it becomes possible to infer a realistic range for the production and utilization of hydrogen and its derivatives in 2030 and 2050. In addition, the study enables the divergence between the models used in WEO and WETO to be estimated, by identifying the different predictions for similar variables under similar conditions. The study covers miscellaneous variables related to energy and emissions other than hydrogen, which are helpful in establishing a good view of how the world may look in 2030 and 2050. Some barriers (such as the uncompetitive levelized cost of electrolysis-based green hydrogen) and drivers (such as the German H2Global initiative) for the hydrogen economy are also discussed. The study finds that the large-scale utilization of hydrogen or its derivatives as a source of energy is highly uncertain, and it may be reached slowly, given more than two decades to mature. Despite this, electrolysis-based green hydrogen is expected to dominate the global hydrogen economy, with the annual global production of electrolysis-based green hydrogen expected to increase from 0 million tonnes in 2021 to between 22 million tonnes and 327 million tonnes (with electrolyzer capacity exceeding 5 terawatts) in 2050, depending on the commitment of policymakers toward decarbonization and energy transitions.

Less Dryland Aridity During Pliocene Warmth

AbstractBecause of the potential similarities of the climate in the mid‐Pliocene to the projected conditions in the near future, studying mid‐Pliocene dryland aridity can advance our future projections. In this study, we used climate modeling to investigate mid‐Pliocene dryland aridity. Our results indicated that, in the mid‐Pliocene compared to the preindustrial period, the simulated dryland was substantially less arid in North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Australia and Central Asia and more arid in North and South America and Southern Africa. The combined topography, vegetation and lakes (TVL) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations markedly modified this large‐scale dryland aridity, mainly by modulating precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, respectively. Moreover, the dryland aridity during the mid‐Pliocene varied under different orbital parameter intervals, mainly through precipitation changes. Our results show the important effect of vegetation on dryland aridity in a previous warm period and imply the potential effect of vegetation on future dryland aridity.

Indian Ocean Dipole Changes During the Last Interglacial Modulated by the Mean Oceanic Climatology

AbstractInvestigating the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) can advance knowledge of IOD behaviors in orbitally‐induced warmer‐than‐present scenarios. Based on multiple model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 4, the analysis suggests reduced frequencies of the IOD compared to the preindustrial period. Spatially, the whole growing and mature stages of the IOD feature suppressed variability over the west and westward expansions of eastern anomalies, while the eastern perturbation enhances only at the initial phase. The overall amplitude assessed by the dipole mode index shows only minor reductions. These changes are attributed to orbitally‐induced enhancement in mean‐state westward currents along the equator, which transport more anomalous cold water westward. In addition, the subdued El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the LIG is unlikely to cause a weakening of the IOD, in association with a less important role of ENSO in the formation of the IOD.

The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model

Abstract The impact of melt ponds on sea ice albedo has been observed and documented. In general circulation models, ponds are now accounted for through indirect diagnostic treatments (“implicit” schemes) or prognostic melt-pond parameterizations (“explicit” schemes). However, there has been a lack of studies showing the impacts of these schemes on simulated Arctic climate. We focus here on rectifying this using the general circulation model HadGEM3, one of the few models with a detailed explicit pond scheme. We identify the impact of melt ponds on the sea ice and climate, and associated ice–ocean–atmosphere interactions. We run a set of constant forcing simulations for three different periods and show, for the first time, that using mechanistically different pond schemes can lead to very significantly different sea ice and climate states. Under near-future conditions, an implicit scheme never yields an ice-free summer Arctic, while an explicit scheme yields an ice-free Arctic in 35% of years and raises autumn Arctic air temperatures by 5° to 8°C. We find that impacts on climate and sea ice depend on the ice state: under near-future and last-interglacial conditions, the thin sea ice is very sensitive to pond formation and parameterization, whereas during the preindustrial period the thicker sea ice is less sensitive to the pond scheme choice. Both of these two commonly used parameterizations of sea ice albedo yield similar results under preindustrial conditions but in warmer climates lead to very different Arctic sea ice and ocean and atmospheric temperatures. Thus, changes to physical parameterizations in the sea ice model can have large impacts on simulated sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere. Significance Statement This study investigates the impacts of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice under different climate conditions, using the HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL general circulation model (GCM). Additionally, we study the impact of changing the type of pond scheme used. We find that changing the pond scheme causes large differences to how a GCM simulates Arctic sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere, for both near-future and warmer paleoclimate conditions. These large differences have not been found previously, because this is one of the first GCM studies of this type. Our results demonstrate the importance of melt ponds, and their wider impacts on ocean and atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that better evaluation of the representation of sea ice processes is vital for the robust projection of future climate change.

ЭВОЛЮЦИЯ КОНЦЕПЦИЙ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПЕРСОНАЛОМ

The author reviews historically formed concepts of personnel management with a description of the main trends and prerequisites for their formation. The article describes the evolutionary changes in the views of various scientific schools on the interaction of people within an organization, starting from the pre-industrial period to the present day. At the same time, the transformation of ideas about a person is shown - from an element of labor resources to an object of social entrepreneurship and a full participant in all organizational processes. The work presents a summary comparative table comparing the main concepts of personnel management, the organizational model of the employee, the usual management functions of the personnel management system, as well as the main drivers of labor relations. The conclusions made on the basis of the presentation of the material orient further research to special attention to human well-being, talent management and comprehensive development of the individual, which corresponds to both individual and corporate modern priorities.

MONITORIZAREA DINAMICII UNOR AGENŢI DE DĂUNARE DIN POMICULTURĂ ÎN CONTEXTUL SCHIMBARILOR CLIMATICE DIN ULTIMUL DECENIU

Nowadays, the average values of the main parameters of the local climate and microclimate have changed significantly compared to the pre-industrial period. The immediate consequences are quite obvious, namely: the earlier initiation of vegetation of the most fruit tree species (with about 2 weeks), the increase in the frequency of damages caused by late spring frosts, the prolongation of periods of water stress into the soil and in the atmosphere, accompanied by the blocking photosynthetic activity and increased cell respiration, increased frequency and severity of burns on fruits through the combined effect of insolation and extremely high temperatures, earlier ripening and decreased fruit firmness and acidity. Changes have become obvious in the biological cycle of pests, harmful for fruit growing, especially by the appearance of additional generations with high aggressiveness, the increase of the risk, frequency, intensity and duration of the attack of pathogens. In fruit growing, the depletion of the level and quality of the harvest is caused by bacterial and fungal pathogens (over 155; 41%), pests (over 132; 35%), viruses, viroids and mycoplasmas (over 67; 17%) and dominant mono- and dicots (over 26; 7%). In the last 20 years, technical means have appeared, which allow the monitoring the physico-chemical and humidity parameters of the soil, the local microclimate, as well as the physiological and health status of the plants. The paper presents the results obtained in the period 2018-2022 at RIFG Pitesti-Mărăcineni, in the monitoring of some harmful agents, using independent analog or digital devices, automatic or semi-automatic weather stations with software for real-time data collection and processing, forecasting and warning modules of the risk of attack. These assets allowed the highlighting of the dynamics of some of the damaging agents in fruit growing, the professional scheduling and carrying out of phytosanitary actions in bearing orchards, the reduction of the allocated resources consumption and the protection of the environment.

Simulating dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation over northern Africa during the mid-Holocene Green Sahara period

Abstract. Paleo-proxy data indicate that a “Green Sahara” thrived in northern Africa during the early- to mid-Holocene (MH; 11 000 to 5000 years before present), characterized by more vegetation cover and reduced dust emissions. Utilizing a state-of-the-art atmospheric chemical transport model, TM5-MP, we assessed the changes in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions, dust emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in northern Africa during this period relative to the pre-industrial (PI) period. Our simulations show that dust emissions reduced from 280.6 Tg a−1 in the PI to 26.8 Tg a−1 in the MH, agreeing with indications from eight marine sediment records in the Atlantic Ocean. The northward expansion in northern Africa resulted in an increase in annual emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes during the MH, around 4.3 and 3.5 times higher than that in the PI period, respectively, causing a 1.9-times increase in the SOA surface concentration. Concurrently, enhanced BVOC emissions consumed more hydroxyl radical (OH), resulting in less sulfate formation. This effect counteracted the enhanced SOA surface concentration, altogether leading to a 17 % increase in the cloud condensation nuclei at 0.2 % super saturation over northern Africa. Our simulations provide consistent emission datasets of BVOCs, dust and the SOA formation aligned with the northward shift of vegetation during the “Green Sahara” period, which could serve as a benchmark for MH aerosol input in future Earth system model simulation experiments.

Sources, Transport, and accumulation of Mercury in the northwestern Mediterranean margin sediments during the Industrial Era and influence of turbiditic events

Sources and pathways of the Hg accumulated in the sediments of the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and its adjacent marine areas (Northwestern Mediterranean) have been explored using sediment grab samples, sediment cores, and sediment trap samples. The main source of Hg along this margin is the Rhône River, whose suspended sediments settle mainly in the prodelta area but also along the mid-shelf, then reaching the continental rise via wave resuspension and cascading of dense shelf waters. Seaward, these riverine particles are mixed with carbonated ooze conveyed to the bottom by the biological pump. The Hg is enriched in surface sediments of the GoL with decreasing concentrations westward and seaward from the Rhône prodelta to the continental rise. Dated cores from the Rhône prodelta give access to riverine sediments deposited over the last 400 years and show that the Hg concentration time trend resembles the evolution of coal consumption in France, peaking during in the 1960s. Similar trends were observed in sediment cores collected along the GoL slope and submarine canyons along with the preservation of traces of erosion and sediment instability events. Seaward, on the continental rise, the Hg concentration distribution suggests the deposition of fine planktonic-derived material and particles episodically advected from the shelf during deep cascading pulses. Anthropogenic Hg accumulated in GoL and continental rise sediments during the Industrialized Era is ∼ 150 Mg (tons), two-thirds of which are buried in the Rhône prodelta area. Significant correlations are found between Hg and organic matter in GoL sediments, but the relationships differ between areas and are disrupted by the inputs of anthropogenic Hg and by the Hg availability in the Rhône River watershed during the pre-industrial period. The HgT availability in waters appears to be the limiting factor to the Hg enrichment of the particulate organic matter. Monomethyl mercury (MMHg), which represents on average 0.3 % of the total Hg, was positively correlated to total Hg. Their distributions suggest in situ MMHg formation and a more effective net Hg methylation for surface sediment or particles collected in traps compared with particles buried in the sedimentary column.

Artificial neural network-empowered projected future rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves under changing climate

With the increasing trend of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, by 2052 the temperature is expected to rise by 1.5 °C from the Pre-industrial Period, affecting future extreme rainfall events. This necessitates quantifying extreme hydrologic events to plan and design hydrologic and hydraulic structures using rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to adapt to future climate scenarios. This study developed future projected IDF curves for the Southeast United States using disaggregated sub-hourly (15-, 30-, and 45-min) monthly maximum rainfall from 2030 to 2059 using five climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. A computationally efficient feed-forward back-propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based approach was found to be significantly superior for disaggregating rainfall to a stochastic model with an average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging from 0.67 to 0.84. The study found that there is an increasing rate of future projected annual maximum rainfall intensities in the range of 7% to 36% with reference to the historical period. The spatial variation in future projected extreme rainfall depths showed that the Gulf-Atlantic coast and the Appalachian Mountains are expected to receive more extreme rainfalls.

Spatial contrasts in mid-Holocene dune activities in deserts of northern China: Results from PMIP4 simulations in comparison with geological data

Numerous studies have explored paleoenvironmental conditions in China's dune fields around the mid-Holocene (MH), ∼6000 calendar years ago, often based on individual paleosol-aeolian sand depositional sequences and local-scale landscape dynamics. So far, continent-scale modeling studies have only indirectly assessed dune activation and stabilization processes via changes in simulated precipitation, net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation), and effective moisture (precipitation divided by evaporation). Here we conducted a comprehensive study using gridded data on potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface wind velocity from 13 climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phases 4 (PMIP4) and compared the model results with geological records. Our evaluation of spatial patterns of dune activity in northern China around the MH reveals that the intensity of annual MH dune activity exhibited significant differences between the eastern and western parts of Chinese deserts compared to those of the preindustrial period (PI). Dune activity was significantly weaker in the eastern region, while in the western part, it was considerably stronger. The key drivers of this disparity were the distinct spatial variations in near-surface wind speed and effective moisture between the two regions. Compared with the optically stimulated luminescence ages of the paleosol-aeolian sand sedimentary sequences derived from a compilation of geological records from 88 sites across northern China, the model results suggest that the weakening of dune activity and the process of dune stabilization in eastern China around the MH were mainly attributed to a significant increase in effective moisture and a concurrent decrease in near-surface wind speed due to the intensified East Asian summer monsoon. Additionally, the weakening of westerlies in western China resulted in reduced effective moisture, contributing to increased sand availability for dune development and subsequent desert expansion.

The change in convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool in the mid-Holocene and its influence on South Asian precipitation

This study investigates how convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) differed during the mid-Holocene compared to the preindustrial period. The research employs modeling data from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 4 combined with published hydroclimate records from the Maritime Continent and a new primary productivity reconstruction in the western Celebes Sea. While there is large variability amongst models in terms of simulating precipitation changes, the model AWI-ESM-1-1-LR has the highest agreement with proxy data. This model indicates a dipole pattern consisting of strengthened convection over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and Sumatra and weakened convection over the western equatorial Pacific and Borneo-Sulawesi-New Guinea. The reduced convection over the latter region is supported by the primary productivity record illustrating lower precipitation over Borneo and a deepened nutricline in the western Celebes Sea driven by anomalous equatorial easterly winds. This dipole pattern demonstrates an anomalous trans-ocean zonal circulation cell that links the western equatorial Pacific and equatorial Indian Oceans. This cell emerging in summer and peaking in autumn, is proposed to arise from a trans-ocean zonal imbalance of equatorial precipitation change induced by altered summer insolation, and higher equatorial insolation in autumn. The increased precipitation in South Asia during the mid-Holocene is partially attributed to moisture transported from the western equatorial Pacific associated with this anomalous zonal cell. Thus, the dipole pattern of altered IPWP convection is tightly linked to dynamic precipitation changes and can influence regions outside the IPWP.

Increased Population Exposure to Heat and Wet Extremes Moving From Chinese to Global 1.5 or 2.0°C Warming

AbstractThe Paris Agreement proposed two global warming levels relative to the preindustrial period, with the ideal objective of 1.5°C warming and an upper boundary of 2.0 °C. However, the years when the temperature will first reach 1.5 or 2.0°C vary in different regions. Therefore, climate extremes and their population exposure are still not clear at regional or global warming levels. This study investigated climate extremes in China at different Chinese and global warming with 16 CMIP6 models under the middle SSP245 scenario. In China, the year when 1.5°C warming is projected to occur is 2020 and 2035 for 2.0°C warming. These values are more than 10 years earlier than the corresponding global warming levels of 2030 and 2049. Population exposure to percentile‐based heat extremes at global 1.5°C warming is projected to greatly increase relative to those when 1.5°C warming occurs in China due to increases in climate extremes, and exposure to absolute heat extreme indices is projected to decrease from Chinese to global 2.0°C warming under the joint impacts of increases in extremes and population decreases. Furthermore, from Chinese to global 1.5°C warming, about 344 million people will experience increased exposure to heat, wet and dry extremes, and around 468 and 371 million people will be affected by increased exposure to heat–wet and heat–dry extremes, respectively. Thus, a more adaptive strategy should be proposed to cope with the future possible natural hazards caused by heat–wet and heat–dry extremes.

Quantifying effects of Earth orbital parameters and greenhouse gases on mid-Holocene climate

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (MH) is the most recent typical climate period and a subject of great interest in global paleocultural research. Following the latest Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4) protocol and using a fully coupled climate model, we simulated the climate during both the MH and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on climate differences, focusing on the simulated differences in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between these two periods. Compared to the PI simulation, the ORB effect in the MH simulation led to seasonal enhancement of temperature, consistent with previous findings. In the MH simulation, the ORB effect led to a markedly warmer climate in the mid–high latitudes and increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, which were partially offset by the cooling effect of the lower GHGs. The AMOC in the MH simulation was about 4 % stronger than that in the PI simulation. The ORB effect led to 6 % enhancement of the AMOC in the MH simulation, which was, however, partly neutralized by the GHG effect. Transient simulation from the MH to the PI further demonstrated the opposite effects of ORBs and GHGs on the evolution of the AMOC during the past 6000 years. The simulated stronger AMOC in the MH was mainly due to the thinner sea ice in the polar oceans caused by the ORB effect, which reduced the freshwater flux export to the subpolar Atlantic and resulted in a more saline North Atlantic. This study may help us quantitatively understand the roles of different external forcing factors in Earth's climate evolution since the MH.

Sleep in a 1-year diary from the mid-18th century.

A 1-year systematic diary was kept by an anonymous diarist in Hamburg in the year 1755-1756. Sleep, activities, food intake, urine volume, and meteorological data were documented daily. The systematic recording of sleep and naps, with an accuracy of a quarter of an hour allowed analysis of the placement, duration, and consistency of sleep. The mean (range) night sleep duration was 6 (3-9) h. The distribution of sleep interruptions showed two peaks, short (≤30 min) and long (≥45 min) interruptions. The latter indicted nights with segmented sleep. Time in bed was subject to strong seasonal variations. Bedtime and rise time were earlier in summer than in winter and sleep latency was shorter in summer than in winter. However, sleep duration displayed a large spread in all seasons and did not differ substantially between summer and winter. Seasonal variations of sleep timing were related to the varying daylight hours during the year. Finally, the results of this individual case may prompt a more detailed investigation of the variability of sleep behaviour in the pre-industrial period.

Climate-active building enclosures

The building energy demand and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have risen since the preindustrial period, reaching the highest levels. Brazil is the eighth largest consumer of primary energy globally, with buildings accounting for 51.2% of the total electric energy consumption. In this sense, the building enclosure has substantial potential and the lowest cost for reducing energy expenditure. The dynamicity of environmental factors allows for many design approaches, and since the user comfort analysis evolved, time-varying building skin configurations emerged. When coupled with computational design, the building's skins no longer must compromise to one stationary condition that is never optimal to any particular condition. These climate-active envelopes need a seemingly conveyed characterization or a straightforward design process as a relatively new technique. We aimed to differentiate climate-active building typologies and gather the latest compositions and performance assessment metrics, rendering an integrative literature review, state-of-the-art, and bibliometric analysis. As the main results, we assembled tabular data on 100 research pieces considering various study methodologies, climate-active typologies, movement categories, actuation styles, simulation engines, and performance criteria, demonstrating that most studies evaluated facade typologies, concerned temperate climates and adopted simple, binary movement characterizations. Furthermore, the design process for active building enclosures needs to be clearer and well-structured, and the available computational tools still need improvement.

Increased Terrestrial Carbon Export and CO2 Evasion From Global Inland Waters Since the Preindustrial Era

AbstractGlobal carbon dioxide (CO2) evasion from inland waters (rivers, lakes, and reservoirs) and carbon (C) export from land to oceans constitute critical terms in the global C budget. However, the magnitudes, spatiotemporal patterns, and underlying mechanisms of these fluxes are poorly constrained. Here, we used a coupled terrestrial–aquatic model to assess how multiple changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, N fertilizer and manure applications have affected global CO2 evasion and riverine C export along the terrestrial‐aquatic continuum. We estimate that terrestrial C loadings, riverine C export, and CO2 evasion in the preindustrial period (1800s) were 1,820 ± 507 (mean ± standard deviation), 765 ± 132, and 841 ± 190 Tg C yr−1, respectively. During 1800–2019, multifactorial global changes caused an increase of 25% (461 Tg C yr−1) in terrestrial C loadings, reaching 2,281 Tg C yr−1 in the 2010s, with 23% (104 Tg C yr−1) of this increase exported to the ocean and 59% (273 Tg C yr−1) being emitted to the atmosphere. Our results showed that global inland water recycles and exports nearly half of the net land C sink into the atmosphere and oceans, highlighting the important role of inland waters in the global C balance, an amount that should be taken into account in future C budgets. Our analysis supports the view that a major feature of the global C cycle–the transfer from land to ocean–has undergone a dramatic change over the last two centuries as a result of human activities.

Implications of climate change on surface temperature in North Indian states: evidence from CMIP6 model ensembles

Introduction: The significant impact of climate change on temperature is an important topic of discussion as it rises globally. Hence, the present study is designed to investigate the profound influence of climate change on temperature by considering the North Indian States.Methods: In this comprehensive case study, CMIP6 models are used to investigate temperature behaviour in the states of North India under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios. Comparisons are made between observed surface temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and ensemble mean simulations from CMIP6.Results and Discussion: Results indicate that CMIP6 ensemble mean simulations effectively depict observed climatological patterns of surface temperature with negligible discrepancies. Under both the 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, extreme temperatures show an increase compared to the preindustrial and present periods, suggesting an elevated risk of future severe heat events. Temperature changes relative to the preindustrial period are around 1.5°C, 3°C, and 4.5°C for the present, 1.5°C, and 2°C scenarios, respectively. Return period analysis shows a significant temperature rise of approximately 4.5° over a return time of 60 years. These findings highlight the importance of climate models, valuable for impact studies, and emphasize the need to accurately enhance future model iterations’ precision in simulating regional climates. Urgent climate change mitigation strategies are vital to curb temperature rise and mitigate potential adverse impacts on the region.Conclusion: The study provides critical insights into North India’s climate behavior, underscoring the significance of proactive measures to effectively address climate change challenges within the region.

Climate change and natural resources

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of modern society. Combustion of fossil fuels, ie. anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases that cause the negative effect of the "greenhouse" are a key cause of global climate change. The global increase in air temperature was the trigger for changes in other climatic elements, and above all: evaporation, precipitation regime, the appearance of snow, stormy winds, long-lasting heat waves, etc. The last decade (2010‒2020) was the warmest in the instrumental period. The average annual temperature increased by 1 oC compared to the pre-industrial period. In addition to the increase in the average annual air temperature, there was also an increase in extreme temperatures, and changes in climate indices that are conditioned by the air temperature (frost, summer and tropical days). Such changes in air temperature and climate indices have led to increased evaporation and greater variability of the atmosphere. Climate change has caused a higher frequency and intensity of climate extremes, which have a very unfavorable impact on the environment and natural resources throughout the world. The area of Southeast Europe, ie. the Western Balkans, is one of the most endangered in the world in terms of floods, droughts, long-lasting heat waves and stormy winds. Climate change in the Republik of Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina has been particularly pronounced in the last three decades, when they have put increasing pressure on many natural resources, especially water, agricultural land, biodiversity and forest ecosystems. Climate models point to even more intense changes in the near future, which will require a planned approach in planning the resilience of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change on a scientific basis.

Simulated stable water isotopes during the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial periods using AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso

Abstract. Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

The PMIP4 simulated dryland aridity changes during the Last Interglacial

The dryland is one of the most important land ecosystems on the planet, and its changes are closely bound up with one-third of the world’s population. Investigating dryland climate change during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ∼127 ka ago) can advance our knowledge of dryland climate behaviors in an orbitally-induced warmer-than-present scenario. Based on the multiple model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4, we suggest that the dryland areas during the LIG are 37% wetter than that during the preindustrial period as measured by the aridity index (AI), and 37% of the preindustrial drylands correspondingly convert to wetter subtypes. Spatially, there are hemispheric differences with drylands wetting and contracting in the Northern Hemisphere but desiccating and expanding in the Southern Hemisphere. Further diagnosis indicates that the altered precipitation is the dominant contributor to more than 72% of the AI changes, and the precipitation change is mainly attributed to the orbitally-induced redistribution of incoming insolation and heat. The secondary factor is the relative humidity change, exaggerating the AI changes in the same direction as the precipitation does. The simulation agrees reasonably with reconstructions for most regions, except Australia and southern Africa. The simulated changes in dryland aridity and the mechanism differ from that in future warming scenarios, so we claim that the LIG as a potential analogue for a warmer future does not fully hold for the dryland climate.