Voter Preferences Research Articles

Pro-Peace vs. Pro-War Conceptualizations in the Language of Hungarian Propaganda

The language of propaganda can be treated as a specialist language with its own specialized terminology. It is produced by groups of variously configured propaganda experts responsible for the creation of propaganda messages, placed at one end of the communication channel, together with its specific target audience that consumes these messages, situated at the other end of the communication channel. As a result of this specialized communication process, the language of propaganda is function-oriented and its focus is always put on the objectives that are to be achieved. These include shaping and manipulating public opinions. For these goals to be successful, the language of propaganda must be equipped with efficient and well-designed conceptualizations able to change and modify the way people think. Defined as such, the language of propaganda is not a purely linguistic construct, but a multimodal tool able to make use of the visual and audiovisual output as well. The interest in mental processes such as conceptualization lies at the very center of cognitive linguistics and the study of cognitive mechanisms responsible for various types of conceptualizations is of high priority in cognitively driven approaches to language. Another issue which makes cognitive linguistics suitable for this type of research in specialist languages is its long standing preference for multidisciplinary and multimodal phenomena. Applying the methodology of cognitive linguistics, the present paper aims at identifying and discussing the PRO-PEACE vs. PRO-WAR network of conceptualizations in the language of Hungarian propaganda, often compared in its mastery with Orwell’s newspeak or the Soviet propaganda machinery because of its power and influence. Hungary’s leading right-wing party, Fidesz-KDNP, has retained political control in Hungary ever since its landslide victory in the 2010 national elections and developed a powerful propaganda tool that is ideally customized to the culture-specific preferences of Hungarian voters. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, this research studies linguistic expressions shaping PRO-PEACE vs. PRO-WAR conceptualizations with their rich social, historical and cultural contexts.

Marketing Political Parties: Political Branding Elements and Voters’ Preference: A Hypothesised Model

Objective - The aim of this study is to create a hypothesised model of political brand elements that can influence voters’ preference. Theoretical testing is used in analysing the research subject of this paper. Methodology/Technique - The qualitative research method was employed and the exploratory research design was used. A hypothesised model aids in theory building and presents a graphic representation of the exploratory research findings. Trustworthiness of the research was confirmed through credibility, transferability, dependability and confirmability. Findings – Awareness, party campaign, brand trust, leader’s image, party brand image and brand association were identified as political brand elements that may influence voting preference. Novelty - The significance of identifying the political brand elements that can potentially influence voter preference will add to existing literature which will assist researchers and political parties in understanding how political supporters make their voting decision. In addition, the hypothesised model of the study can be tested quantitatively in future studies. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: M39, M31, D72, P16 Keywords: Political branding, Marketing, Politics, Qualitative, Hypothesised model Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Ferreira, D; Eyk, M.V. (2023). Marketing Political Parties: Political Branding Elements and Voters’ Preference: A Hypothesised Model, J. Mgt. Mkt. Review, 8(4), 111 – 118. https://doi.org/10.35609/jmmr.2023.8.4(1)

Let the people’s will prevail: Self-uncertainty and authoritarianism predict support for populism

Recent years have witnessed a widespread rise of right-wing populism—an ideology maintaining that the will of the people is supreme, but is subverted by antagonistic elites. Drawing on uncertainty-identity theory, three studies (total N = 5,882) tested the hypothesis that uncertainty would only strengthen support for populism among low authoritarian respondents. Studies 1 and 2 were secondary analyses of American National Election Survey (ANES) 2012 and 2016 data. They supported our key hypotheses in explaining support for the populist American Tea Party (Study 1, N = 1,917), and support for right-wing populist ideology and voting preference for Donald Trump rather than Hillary Clinton (Study 2, N = 2,520). Study 3 ( N = 1,445) experimentally manipulated self-uncertainty to allow a causal interpretation, and focused on right-wing populist ideology. The results are discussed in terms of their contribution to uncertainty-identity theory, and their societal relevance in an environment of growing populism.

Combining voter preferences with party position estimates from different sources for studying voting behavior and representation

Researchers interested in policy voting and substantive representation face the challenge to combine party positions with voter preference data on a common scale. One solution is to rely on voters’ perceptions of parties’ policy positions, as reported in surveys. However, this kind of data is often only available for the common left–right dimension, but not for more concrete policy scales, and it suffers from bias. We first discuss how to free perceptual data from bias by relying on a Bayesian version of the Aldrich–McKelvey rescaling technique. Then we discuss two prominent alternative sources of party position estimates: expert survey positions, and positions based on the CMP coding scheme of the manifesto project. While both types of party position estimates are considered to be of good quality, it is unclear how they fit into voter preference scales. This paper presents a simple rescaling technique that improves the matching.

Climate stress and anxiety, environmental context, and civic engagement: A nationally representative study

There is increasing recognition that people are experiencing stress and anxiety around climate change, and that this climate stress/anxiety may be associated with more pro-environmental behavior. However, less is known about whether people's own environmental exposures affect climate stress/anxiety or the relationship between climate stress/anxiety and civic engagement. Using three waves of survey data (2020–2022) from the nationally representative Tufts Equity in Health, Wealth, and Civic Engagement Study of US adults (n = 1071), we assessed relationships among environmental exposures (county-level air pollution, greenness, number of toxic release inventory sites, and heatwaves), self-reported climate stress/anxiety, and civic engagement measures (canvasing behavior, collaborating to solve community problems, personal efficacy to solve community problems, group efficacy to solve community problems, voting behavior). Most participants reported experiencing climate stress/anxiety (61%). In general, the environmental exposures we assessed were not significantly associated with climate stress/anxiety or civic engagement metrics, but climate stress/anxiety was positively associated with most of the civic engagement outcomes (canvassing, personal efficacy, group efficacy, voter preference). Our results support the growing literature that climate stress/anxiety may spur constructive civic action, though do not suggest a consistent relationship between adverse environmental exposures and either climate stress/anxiety or civic engagement. Future research and action addressing the climate crisis should promote climate justice by ensuring mental health support for those who experience climate stress anxiety and by promoting pro-environmental civic engagement efforts.

Drilling Setbacks vs Government Takings: The Case of Colorado’s 2018 Colorado Ballot Initiatives

State policymaking is at the center of many oil and gas related disputes. Driven by the promise of affordable energy, economic development, and new revenues, supporters of oil and gas have pushed for policies designed to nurture the oil and gas industry, whereas opponents have emphasized a myriad of environmental threats and disruptions. Statewide ballot initiatives related to oil gas extraction offer a particularly useful lens to examine the preferences of voters in that states are home to residents who directly and indirectly experience the promises and perils of extraction. This paper examines two ballot initiatives in Colorado from 2018, one of which was supported by the oil and gas industry; the other of which was opposed by the same industry. We find that the inclusion of natural amenities, livelihood, and population change provides a useful set of variables for further study.

Who is More Important to Voters – Parties or Candidates? The Effects of Preferential Voting in Croatia

Autor analizira učinke preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj u dosadašnjih šest ciklusa izbora u kojima je bilo primijenjeno preferencijsko glasovanje. Autor institucionalno smješta hrvatski sustav preferencijskog glasovanja unutar europskih preferencijskih sustava. Koristeći izborne liste kao jedinice analize, autor utvrđuje krajnje učinke na personalni sastav parlamenta, analizirajući pritom razinu i način na koji birači koriste svoj preferencijski glas, kao i izravni i posredni utjecaj vrste izbora i varijabli stranačke ponude. Rezultati pokazuju da, komparativno gledano i s obzirom na institucionalne mogućnosti, učinci preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj nisu mali. Dok je korištenje preferencijskog glasovanja među najvišim razinama u usporedbi s drugim državama članicama EU, koncentracija preferencijskih glasova na prvog kandidata na listi također je pojačana. Nalaze se razlike s obzirom na vrstu izbora i s obzirom na stranačku ponudu. Starost stranke i njezina veličina, kao i položaj stranke na ljestvici lijevo-desno, utječu na pojedine dimenzije preferencijskog ponašanja birača. Nalazi su važni u svjetlu javnih zahtjeva za reformom sustava preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj.

Understanding belief in political statements using a model-driven experimental approach: a registered report

Misinformation harms society by affecting citizens' beliefs and behaviour. Recent research has shown that partisanship and cognitive reflection (i.e. engaging in analytical thinking) play key roles in the acceptance of misinformation. However, the relative importance of these factors remains a topic of ongoing debate. In this registered study, we tested four hypotheses on the relationship between each factor and the belief in statements made by Argentine politicians. Participants (N = 1353) classified fact-checked political statements as true or false, completed a cognitive reflection test, and reported their voting preferences. Using Signal Detection Theory and Bayesian modeling, we found a reliable positive association between political concordance and overall belief in a statement (median = 0.663, CI95 = [0.640, 0.685]), a reliable positive association between cognitive reflection and scepticism (median = 0.039, CI95 = [0.006, 0.072]), a positive but unreliable association between cognitive reflection and truth discernment (median = 0.016, CI95 = [− 0.015, 0.046]) and a positive but unreliable association between cognitive reflection and partisan bias (median = 0.016, CI95 = [− 0.006, 0.037]). Our results highlight the need to further investigate the relationship between cognitive reflection and partisanship in different contexts and formats.Protocol registrationThe stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 22 August 2022. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/EBRGC.

Voter Preferences for EU Asylum Policies: The Role of Government Cues

AbstractWe study whether and how governments influence public opinion about immigration policies in Europe. At the European level, conflicts about policy are generally territorial in nature – that is, they involve conflicts between member states, which are represented by their governments. Distinguishing between four types of situations, depending on whether the national governments support or oppose EU policy proposals, we formulate and test hypotheses concerning the positions of incumbent and opposition voters/non-voters on four different asylum-policy proposals in 16 European countries. We test both direct effects of incumbent cues on voters' preferences, and moderating effects, where the cueing affects the way in which individual attitudes to immigration and European integration translate into specific preferences for EU asylum and immigration policies. Our results suggest that voters, indeed, follow the cues provided by their governments when forming their preferences on EU policies.

Assessing Constitutional Frameworks for Closed Proportional Representation in House of Representatives Elections

Abstract: The electoral system in Indonesia has implemented two politically different systems, one of which is the proportional system. This proportional system is also divided into proportional with an open list and proportional with a closed list. The basic idea of ​​a proportional system is that the composition of seats obtained by a political party in an electoral area will be in balance with the proportion of votes received by the political party concerned in the election. Even in this system, only a few votes are wasted. According to the provisions of Article 168 paragraph (2) of Law No. 7/2017, the electoral system for DPR members is open proportional with a majority vote. This system has a good level of representation because the people are free to determine their representatives who will sit in Parliament directly and can continue to supervise those they choose. Purpose: This research aims to analyze the application of a closed proportional system in the DPR election from the perspective of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia; arrangements regarding the principles of elections in the constitution are regulated in Article 22E of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. Design/Methodology/Approach: The type of research used in this research is normative legal research, using statute and conceptual approaches. Findings: The results of this research indicate that the application of a closed proportional system is not following the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia because it will close space for the people to make their own choices directly because in a closed proportional system the determination of who are the candidates for members of the DPR who will sit in parliament is absolute political party wishes. Originality/Value: Debates about the constitutionality of open proportional and closed proportional systems always fill public spaces, especially before the election. Due to this issue, a fundamental question arises about whether the closed proportional system in the election of DPR members follows the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. This issue is the reason for research regarding the general election system for DPR members following the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia.

“Paradox of gender quotas”: an experiment

ABSTRACT The notion of “paradox of gender quotas” points to the possibility that under certain preferential voting systems quotas may be simultaneously favorable and unfavorable to women; while they facilitate women’s passing the candidate selection stage, the quota-induced increase in the number of women candidates makes the competition at the ballot more exacting to women. The extant literature on that notion has been based exclusively on observational analyses and is largely inconclusive. In this note, we distinguish two mechanisms through which the “paradox” may possibly operate: limits to the overall women’s vote share and vote splitting. We subsequently propose an experimental test of those. We conduct a randomized survey experiment that mocks a situation of voting under various scenarios. The results that we obtain largely corroborate the presence of the former, but not the latter, mechanism behind the “paradox of gender quotas”.

Presidential Debates and Electoral Preferences in Weakly Institutionalised Democracies: Evidence From 32 Latin American Elections

Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.

Political behavior and voting for tax incentives

ABSTRACT This study looks at the factors which influence state legislators’ votes on movie production tax incentives. It investigates the relationship between votes cast by state legislators for/against movie production subsidies with respect to election results, political party, political donations, and district geographic and economic characteristics. Votes depend on incentives offered by neighbouring states, political affiliation, margin of election victory, and district unemployment. The number of movies filmed in the district prior to legislative action or political contributions to legislators from movie industry donors are not important vote determinants on this issue. Districts that voted for incentives appear to receive a greater increase in post-legislation film production than those that voted against legislation. Using statewide ballot initiatives to measure voter preferences, the data indicates that legislator votes on movie tax incentives reflect the underlying beliefs of their districts and is consistent with the median voter theorem.

AI-powered medical devices for practical clinicians including the diagnosis of colorectal polyps

Background: The integration of medical devices with artificial intelligence (AI) software is rapidly advancing as technology progresses. AI machine learning can be used in commercial medical services to generate practical data; there is evidence that it can be integrated into newly developed devices. However, such devices must undergo approval, regulation, and supervision. The Food and Drug Administration approves regulations for numerous machine-learning medical devices and shares open lists with the public. In this article, we examine recent medical AI devices in different fields, including the diagnosis of colorectal polyps.Current Concepts: Currently, in the field of gastroenterology, there has been a significant amount of research aimed at enhancing adenoma detection rates using tools powered by AI, such as the EndoScreener and GI Genius. Various such devices have also been developed for other fields; examples include the 23andMe Personal Genome Service for DNA detection, Spectral MD’s DeepView platform for wound imaging in surgery, Gili Pro BioSensor for monitoring vital signs, DreaMed Advisor Pro for diabetes, Minuteful for urinary analysis, BrainScope TBI for cerebral diagnosis, Compumedics Sleep Monitoring System for sleep disorders, Idx-DR v2.3 for ophthalmology, and EarliPoint system for pediatrics.Discussion and Conclusion: By the time this article is published, it is likely that even more AI medical devices will have been approved and commercialized. The development of such devices should be strongly encouraged. Additionally, we anticipate greater involvement from practitioners in the development and validation of diverse medical AI devices in Korea.

On a class of strategy-proof social choice correspondences with single-peaked utility functions

We consider the problem of constructing strategy-proof rules that choose sets of alternatives based on the preferences of voters, modelled as Social Choice Correspondences (SCCs) in the literature. We focus on two domain restrictions inspired by Barberà et al. (2001) in the context of single-peaked utility functions. We find that for the narrower domain, the set of tops-only, unanimous, and strategy-proof SCCs coincides with the class of unions of two min–max rules (Moulin, 1980). For the broader domain, the set of SCCs coincides with the class of unions of two ‘adjacent’ min–max rules, meaning the corresponding parameters for the two rules must be either the same or consecutive alternatives.

Peran Mahasiswa PPKN FIS Universitas Negeri Medan Dalam Menghadapi Tantangan Politik 2024, Studi Kasus: Praktek Money Politik

Money Politics is an attempt to bribe voters by providing money or services so that voters' vote preferences can be given to a briber. Political money is no longer surprising, it is a common thing that happens when it comes to elections, parties do various things to get votes from the people, this political money has been passed down from generation to generation. Violations that often occur during elections include the widespread practice of money politics. Money politics is considered a practice that injures democracy. Elections are a big party in democracy where every citizen is free to give their voting rights to the parties that are nominating. In the lead up to the election, many candidates are chosen by the party to take part in the community by giving gifts. This is what we often refer to as "Money politics", this cannot be avoided, because of this people become unstable in their choices. The aim of this research is to find out the political challenges in general elections, find out what factors cause the practice of money politics in general elections and to find out how to face these political challenges. The research method used by the author is a qualitative method, which is descriptive research and tends to use analysis. The aim is to explain a phenomenon in as much depth as possible by collecting data in as much depth as possible, with greater emphasis on the depth of the data obtained. Students have an important role in fighting money politics. As students who study politics, it is only natural that they can form public awareness by providing political education or education for the community or others around us about the importance of integration in politics, and encouraging transparency and accountability in general elections and so that they are more aware of the dangers of money politics so that with Education to the public will increase people's understanding of the dangers of money politics and they will be wiser in choosing a good and wise leader. And society will not be more easily influenced by using political money. By getting involved in anti-money politics campaigns and fighting for policies that reduce corruption and the influence of money in politics, students can help create a more just and democratic political system.

Do political duos diminish discriminatory voter preferences? Evidence from a combined conjoint experiment

In Europe, more and more parties and governments are led by a pair of leaders. What consequences does the presence of duos have on voter preferences? I argue that voters have less discriminatory preferences against untraditional candidates when they choose two leaders instead of only one. However, discriminatory preferences do not entirely vanish; rather, traditionally excluded candidates are often relegated to secondary positions, and there exists a certain threshold of tolerated ticket diversity. Through a novel combined conjoint experiment, I find relative support for this conjecture, especially in the case of ethnic minority candidates. In view of the increasing number of new types of leadership, the results of this study have important implications for the study of political behaviour and elite diversity.

Understanding Voters' Preference for Candidates in the Philippine Presidential Elections

Philippine presidential elections have traditionally been characterized by the dominance of political popularity, populism, and financial interests, often marred by incidents of violence and electoral fraud. In this context, higher education is recognized as a pivotal tool for mitigating voter naivety and fostering informed political engagement. This study seeks to assess the preferences of voters, specifically 108 students from BiPSU (the research population), and to identify the significant sources of information that influence their decision-making about the election.

The Anatomy of Frank Bainimarama’s Defeat at the Fiji December 2022 Election

ABSTRACT Fiji’s 14 December 2022 election saw the defeat of 2006 coup leader turned civilian prime minister Frank Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Party, and victory for an opposition coalition led by Sitiveni Rabuka, the 1987 coup leader and 1992–9 prime minister. This article examines the polling venue-level data to investigate whether regional, class, ethnic, or urban–rural differences determined that outcome, as well as exploring the influence of variations in the personal vote over the three open list proportional representation elections of 2014, 2018, and 2022.

О рациональном применении мер принуждения и средств исправления при исполнении лишения свободы

The article reveals the main difficulties arising in the implementation of the principle of rational use of coercive measures and means of correction in the process of execution of a sentence in the form of imprisonment in Russia. With the help of the analysis of the main provisions of the penal enforcement legislation, official statistics, court decisions and the works of penitentiary scientists, the author’s opinion on the issues of improving the norms of the law and optimizing law enforcement practice is formulated. It is proved that the effective implementation of the principle of rational use of coercive measures will be ensured by the legislative imputation of the duty of photo and video recording of the fact of violations committed by convicts to employees of places of deprivation of liberty. The conclusion is made about the redundancy of the legislative definition of «basic» in relation to the characteristics of the means of correction of convicts. Reasoned and justified the expediency of establishing an open list of means of correction of convicts.