Predictors Of Venous Thromboembolism Research Articles

CiThroModel Improves Prediction of Symptomatic Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Patients With Cirrhosis Without Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a recognized complication of acutely ill patients, but its incidence and risk factors in those with cirrhosis are uncertain. We retrospectively studied a consecutive cohort of cirrhosis patients non-electively admitted to our medical unit to determine the rates of symptomatic VTE during hospitalization. Firstly, we explored associations with baseline, clinical and laboratory characteristics using logistic regression. Secondly, we developed a clinical prediction model that could predict the risk of in-hospital VTE. We included 687 patients (median age 61years old; 68% male; Child-Pugh A/B/C, 13%/40%/47%). During hospitalization, 34 patients (4.9%) experienced VTE. Multivariate analysis showed that male sex (OR: 2.56, p=0.05), AKI (OR: 3.1, p=0.001), bacterial infections (OR: 2.6, p=0.008), Pugh score (OR: 1.6. p<0.001), family history of thrombosis (OR: 3.1, p=0.04), reduced mobility (OR: 4.6, p<0.001), and C-reactive protein (OR: 1.1, p=0.005) were independent predictors of VTE. We combined these variables in a prediction model (CirrhosisThrombosisModel) that accurately discriminated between high- and low-risk patients. The AUROC of CiThroModel was significantly higher than that of Padua prediction score (0.882 vs. 0.742). After validating the CiThroModel using bootstrapping, the adjusted model maintained optimal discrimination ability (0.862) and calibration. The adjusted formula to calculate the in-hospital risk of VTE was -9.00+0.82 [Male sex]+1.14 [AKI]+0.98 [Infection]+0.48*Child Pugh score+1.14 [VTE family history]+1.54 [Reduced mobility] + 0.15*PCR/10. The CiThroModel seems a valuable tool for identifying hospitalized patients with cirrhosis at risk of VTE (https://majinzin.shinyapps.io/vterisk/).

Risk, incidence and predictors of venous thromboembolism among patients attending the emergency department of tertiary care hospitals in Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia: a multicentre prospective study

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the risk, incidence and predictors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) among patients admitted to the emergency department of tertiary hospitals in Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia.DesignA multicentre...

Same-day emergency care: a retrospective observational study of the incidence and predictors of venous thromboembolism following hospital-based acute ambulatory medical care.

Same-day emergency care (SDEC) is an expanding area of hospital acute medical care. It aims to minimize delays and manage medical emergency patients within the same day, enabling hospitalization to be avoided; the expectation is that the patients would have required inpatient hospitalization in the absence of the SDEC service. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) prevention is a key medical inpatient safety measure. Whether VTE prevention should be considered for SDEC patients is unknown. To examine the incidence and predictors of VTE diagnosed within 90 days of SDEC assessment. Data were obtained from electronic health records of people who received SDEC at our hospital during a 5-year period (April 2016 to March 2021). There were 40 045 attendance episodes by 33 715 individuals. Median age was 60 years (IQR, 41.0-76.0 years), and 55.2% were women. Three hundred forty-nine patients (0.9%) developed a VTE within 90 days of SDEC. Increased risk of VTE was associated with age more than 60 years, prior malignancy (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.12; 95% CI, 3.19-5.32; P< .0001), history of diseases of the circulatory system (adjusted OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 2.27-3.76; P< .0001), and having 1 or more additional SDEC attendances within 30 days (adjusted OR, 4.61; 95% CI, 3.65-5.82; P< .0001). In the 90 days prior to VTE diagnosis, 36.6% of patients had a separate inpatient admission in addition to SDEC. There was no association with completion of an electronic VTE risk assessment (adjusted OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.76-1.20). The incidence of VTE following SDEC is similar to that reported for symptomatic VTE in traditional medical inpatients without thromboprophylaxis.

Predictors of Venous Thromboembolism Following Geriatric Distal Femur Fracture Fixation: Are These Patients at Higher Risk Compared With Hip Fracture Patients?

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) following injury and subsequent fixation of a distal femur fracture (DFFx) is associated with considerable morbidity. However, the incidence of VTE, associated factors, and the relative risk compared with hip fracture (HFx) fixation remains poorly characterized. Retrospective cohort study using the PearlDiver M165 database to identify geriatric patients who underwent DFFx and HFx fixation. Clinical risk factors of VTE within 90 days of DFFx and the risk modification associated with enoxaparin (Lovenox) and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) relative to aspirin/nonprescription agents were characterized. To determine the odds of VTE following fixation of DFFx relative to HFx, a matched comparison based on age, sex, and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index was done. Of 24,358 DFFx patients, 1684 (6.9%) developed VTE. Independent risk factors included a prior VTE (odds ratio [OR] 28.76), displaced DFFx morphologies (condylar [OR 5.44], and supracondylar without intracondylar extension [OR 3.96] and with extension [OR 3.75]), active cancer (OR 2.11), coagulopathy disorder (OR 1.15), and younger age (OR 1.03) (P < 0.05 for all). Lovenox and DOAC were both associated with reduced odds of VTE (OR 0.40 and OR 0.61, respectively) (P < 0.05 for both). Relative to HFx patients, DFFx patients demonstrated heightened odds of VTE (OR 1.25) (P < 0.001). This study identified a relatively high rate of VTE, 6.9% within 90 days, following surgical management of DFFx and heightened odds of VTE relative to HFx patients. Various factors demonstrated a notable association with increased odds of VTE, although both Lovenox and DOACs may be effective therapeutic options for risk mitigation.

Can we predict the risk of venous thromboembolism in patients with Cushing's syndrome: a nationwide cohort analysis.

Patients with Cushing's syndrome (CS) have an increased venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk with most studies focusing on the perioperative period. The purpose of this study was to assess the 5-year VTE risk and identify predictors of VTE at CS diagnosis. A comparative nationwide retrospective cohort study of 609 patients (mean age 48.1 ± 17.2years, 65.0% women) with CS, and 3018 age-, sex-, body mass index-, and socioeconomic status-individually matched controls. Ectopic CS and adrenal cancer were excluded. The time-to-event of pulmonary embolism (PE) or deep vein thrombosis (DVT) within 5years of CS diagnosis was examined. VTE risk was calculated with death as competing event. VTE occurred in 16 cases (2.6%), compared to 17 (0.56%) controls (hazard ratio [HR] 4.71, 95% CI, 2.38-9.33). The 5-year HRs for PE and DVT were 7.47 (95% CI, 2.66-20.98) and 3.32 (95% CI, 1.36-8.12), respectively. After excluding patients and controls with current or prior malignancy the risk for VTE was 7.57 (95% CI, 2.98-19.20). Patients with CS ≥ 60years at diagnosis (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.30-9.35), with hypertension (HR, 5.53; 95% CI, 1.26-24.27), ischemic heart disease (HR, 3.60; 95% CI, 1.25-10.36), kidney disease (HR, 4.85; 95% CI, 1.39-16.90), or VTE event prior to CS diagnosis (HR, 33.65; 95% CI, 10.07-112.42) had an increased risk of VTE within five years. In this large cohort of patients with CS, the 5-year VTE risk was 5 times higher compared with matched controls. Key baseline predictors included age ≥ 60, hypertension, heart/kidney disease, and prior VTE.

Assessment of risk prediction scores for venous thromboembolism in ambulatory cancer patients with solid tumors receiving chemotherapy: A comparative analysis

AbstractObjectiveCancer patients have a 4−7‐fold increased risk of thrombotic complications due to cancer as well as chemotherapy‐induced hypercoagulable state. This study compared the different risk assessment models (Khorana, PROTECHT, CONKO, and COMPASS‐CAT scores) that help predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) in ambulatory cancer patients. Early identification of high‐risk patients would benefit from thromboprophylaxis, thereby improving the mortality and morbidity due to thrombotic events.MethodsThis is a single‐center, prospective, cross‐sectional study on ambulatory patients with solid malignancy. The study was conducted over six months, from March 2022 to August 2022. Data on VTE predictors were gathered from 230 ambulatory cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.ResultsAmong the 230 patients receiving chemotherapy, 20 were diagnosed with VTE, with the majority of this population being either diagnosed with gynecological cancer or lung cancer, constituting 25% of VTE‐diagnosed patients. The Khorana score, with a VTE accuracy of 83.04%, was found to be the highest, followed by the CONKO (80.00%), PROTECHT (69.57%), COMPASS‐CAT Ⅱ (54.35%), and COMPASS‐CAT Ⅰ (38.26%) scores. The cumulative incidence of VTE among high‐risk patients showed that the PROTECHT score had the highest cumulative incidence (CI = 14.28), and the CONKO score had the lowest (CI = 9.40).ConclusionThe Khorana score was the most accurate, followed by the CONKO, PROTECHT, and COMPASS‐CAT Ⅱ scores, while the COMPASS‐CAT Ⅰ score was the least accurate. Hence, the Khorana scoring is essential for diagnosing VTE in patients with ambulatory cancer treated with chemotherapy.

Association between Genetic Risk and the Renal Function for Developing Venous Thromboembolism.

The impact of a reduced renal function on the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. The association between VTE and the renal function, as well as genetic susceptibility, requires further clarification in a large population. This study included 358,723 participants with non-renal failure from the UK Biobank. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of VTE incidence associated with the renal function at baseline were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. In addition, the relationship between the renal function and cumulative risk of VTE was visualized using Kaplan-Meier curves and restricted cubic spline (RCS). Furthermore, this study investigated the combined effects and interactions between the renal function and genetic susceptibility on the risk of VTE onset. Renal function biomarkers in the highest quartile levels for urine creatinine, serum creatinine, urea, urate, cystatin C, and urine microalbumin and lowest quartile levels for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were associated with an elevated risk of VTE onset. For the joint analysis with genetic susceptibility, participants with both high levels of renal function biomarkers (a low eGFR) and high genetic risk had the highest risk of developing VTE, with an HR (95% CI) of 2.83 (2.46-3.26) for urine creatinine, 2.72 (2.37-3.13) for serum creatinine, 2.49 (2.18-2.84) for urea, and 2.63 (2.26-3.05) for urate, 3.52 (3.01-4.13) for cystatin C, 2.90 (2.33-3.60) for urine microalbumin, and 3.37 (2.86-3.98) for the eGFR. A decreased renal function increases the risk of VTE and genetic susceptibility has a positive additive effect on VTE risk. This suggests that biomarkers of the renal function may be used as predictors of VTE, especially in populations with genetic susceptibility to VTE.

The risk of venous thromboembolism in adult patients with diffuse glioma: a nationwide population-based study.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a cause of increased morbidity and risk of death. Studies report VTE in up to 30% of glioma patients but the results vary. The VTE risk is relevant when evaluating prophylaxis to avoid unnecessary bleeding or overdiagnosis. This study examines the VTE incidence in patients with glioma WHO grade 2-4, and when VTE occurred, risk factors, and overall survival (OS) for patients with WHO grade 4. In total 3,630 patients with WHO grade 2 (n = 230), grade 3 (n = 317), and grade 4 (n = 3,083) gliomas from 2010 to 2018 were identified using the Danish Neuro-Oncology Registry. VTE diagnoses and time of death were obtained from Statistics Denmark. The VTE incidence was 5.2, 6.3, and 6.8% in patients with WHO grade 2, 3, and 4 gliomas, respectively. The VTE incidence rate was highest during the first 3 months after the diagnosis with 53 events. Increasing age (HR 1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.04), male sex (HR 1.47, 95%CI 1.09-1.99), poor performance status (HR 1.57, 95%CI 1.10-2.25), and post-operative long-course radiochemotherapy (HR 2.10, 95%CI 1.19-3.72) were predictors of VTE in patients with glioma WHO grade 4. There was no difference in OS comparing patients having VTE to those without (p = 0.068). In conclusion, patients with glioma WHO grade 2-4 were at high risk of VTE, especially the first 3 months after diagnosis. Increasing age, male sex, poor performance status, and long-course radiochemotherapy were associated with increased risk of VTE in patients with glioma WHO grade 4.

UK Foot and Ankle Thromboembolism (UK-FATE).

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a potential complication of foot and ankle surgery. There is a lack of agreement on contributing risk factors and chemical prophylaxis requirements. The primary outcome of this study was to analyze the 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and VTE-related mortality in patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery and Achilles tendon (TA) rupture. Secondary aims were to assess the variation in the provision of chemical prophylaxis and risk factors for VTE. This was a multicentre, prospective national collaborative audit with data collection over nine months for all patients undergoing foot and ankle surgery in an operating theatre or TA rupture treatment, within participating UK hospitals. The association between VTE and thromboprophylaxis was assessed with a univariable logistic regression model. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify key predictors for the risk of VTE. A total of 13,569 patients were included from 68 sites. Overall, 11,363 patients were available for analysis: 44.79% were elective (n = 5,090), 42.16% were trauma excluding TA ruptures (n = 4,791), 3.50% were acute diabetic procedures (n = 398), 2.44% were TA ruptures undergoing surgery (n = 277), and 7.10% were TA ruptures treated nonoperatively (n = 807). In total, 11 chemical anticoagulants were recorded, with the most common agent being low-molecular-weight heparin (n = 6,303; 56.79%). A total of 32.71% received no chemical prophylaxis. There were 99 cases of VTE (incidence 0.87% (95% CI 0.71 to 1.06)). VTE-related mortality was 0.03% (95% CI 0.005 to 0.080). Univariable analysis showed that increased age and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade had higher odds of VTE, as did having previous cancer, stroke, or history of VTE. On multivariable analysis, the strongest predictors for VTE were the type of foot and ankle procedure and ASA grade. The 90-day incidence of symptomatic VTE and mortality related to VTE is low in foot and ankle surgery and TA management. There was notable variability in the chemical prophylaxis used. The significant risk factors associated with 90-day symptomatic VTE were TA rupture and high ASA grade.

S274 Contemporary Nationwide Trends and Predictors of Venous Thromboembolism and Mortality in Elderly Asian American and Pacific Islander Patients Hospitalized With Colorectal Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis (2016-2020)

S274 Contemporary Nationwide Trends and Predictors of Venous Thromboembolism and Mortality in Elderly Asian American and Pacific Islander Patients Hospitalized With Colorectal Cancer: A Comprehensive Analysis (2016-2020)

Venous Thromboembolism Incidence, Risk Factors, and Prophylaxis in Burn Patients: a National Trauma Database Study.

Comprehensive studies on the incidence, risk factors, and prophylactic measures related to venous thromboembolism (VTE) are lacking in burn care. This study characterizes VTE risk and existing prevention measures to improve and inform overall patient care in the field of burn care on a national scale. The US National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) was queried from 2007 to 2021 to identify burn-injured patients. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore the association between demographic/clinical characteristics and VTE risk as well as compare various VTE chemoprophylaxis types. There were 326,614 burn-injured patients included for analysis; 5,642 (1.7%) experienced a VTE event during their hospitalization. Patients with VTE were significantly older, had greater BMIs and %TBSA, and were more likely to be male (p<0.001). History of smoking, hypertension or myocardial infarction, and/or substance use disorder were significant predictors of VTE (p<0.001). Patients who received low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) were less likely to have VTE compared to patients treated with heparin when controlling for other VTE risk factors (OR: .564 95% CI .523-.607, p<0.001). Longer time to VTE chemoprophylaxis (>6 hours) initiation was significantly associated with VTE (OR=1.04 95% CI 1.03=1.07, p<0.001). This study sheds light on risk factors and chemoprophylaxis in VTE to help guide clinical practice when implementing prevention strategies in burn patients. This knowledge can be leveraged to refine risk stratification models, inform evidence-based prevention strategies, and ultimately enhance the quality of care for burn patients at risk of VTE.

Evaluation of the incidence, predictors, risk assessment scores and outcomes of thromboembolism in a cohort of Egyptian NHL patients - Real World Experience

Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma (NHL) is the most common subtype of lymphoma. The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in aggressive NHL was estimated recently to be 11%. Several risk assessment scores and factors are available to help identify cancer patients at risk for developing VTE. Patients with a pathologically confirmed diagnosis of NHL were identified at the Oncology Center of Mansoura University. The study included 777 patients: 719 with DLBCL-NOS, 26 with Anaplastic-B-cell, and 32 with T-cell-rich-NHL. Data were retrospectively collected from electronic medical records, including clinical, radiological, and laboratory information related to VTE and NHL. The median age at NHL diagnosis was 53 years, (range: 18–98). There was a male predominance, 51.4% of the cases. At initial lymphoma diagnosis, VTE was identified in 46 (5.9%) patients, and 61 (7.9%) patients experienced VTE while undergoing chemotherapy. According to logistic regression analysis, a PS (performance status) ≥ 2, bulky lesions, and mediastinal masses were significant predictors of VTE at presentation, with P-values of 0.022, 0.002, and < 0.001, respectively. Meanwhile, NHL patients who developed VTE during chemotherapy had significantly poorer PS, higher absolute neutrophilic counts (ANC), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels than lymphoma patients without VTE, with P-values of 0.003, 0.034, 0.049, 0.01 and 0.007, respectively, as determined by multivariate analysis. The ROC curve identified the cut-off values of 4.875 × 109/L for ANC, 2.985 for NLR, 144.85 for PLR, and 417.5 U/L for LDH as potential markers for predicting VTE in NHL patients. Patients with a PS ≥ 2 and values exceeding these cut-offs for ANC, NLR, and PLR experienced significantly higher incidences of VTE than other groups, with P-values of 0.003, < 0.001, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively. At the end of the follow-up, the overall survival was significantly shortened by VTE occurring during chemotherapy, hypoalbuminemia, intermediate-high and high international prognostic index (IPI) scores (intermediate-high and high), responses other than CR and relapse, all with P-values < 0.05. ECOG PS and Inflammatory markers such as NLR, PLR, and neutrophilic count could serve as predictors of the development of thrombotic events in patients with NHL-DLBCL. Additionally, the occurrence of VTE during chemotherapy is an independent poor prognostic marker for overall survival (OS).

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting venous thromboembolism risk in lung cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: A cohort study in China.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) poses a significant threat to lung cancer patients, particularly those receiving treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of VTE in lung cancer patients undergoing ICI therapy. The data for this retrospective cohort study was collected from cancer patients admitted to Chongqing University Cancer Hospital for ICI treatment between 2019 and 2022. The research data is divided into training and validation sets using a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to identify risk factors for VTE. Based on these analyses, along with clinical expertise, a nomogram model was crafted. The model's predictive accuracy was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis, clinical impact curve, and other relevant metrics. The initial univariate analysis pinpointed 13 potential risk factors for VTE. The subsequent stepwise multivariate regression analysis identified age, Karnofsky performance status, chemotherapy, targeted, platelet count, lactate dehydrogenase, monoamine oxidase, D-dimer, fibrinogen, and white blood cell count as significant predictors of VTE. These 10 variables were the foundation for a predictive model, illustrated by a clear and intuitive nomogram. The model's discriminative ability was demonstrated by the ROC curve, which showed an area under the curve of 0.815 (95% CI 0.772-0.858) for the training set, and 0.753 (95% CI 0.672-0.835) for the validation set. The model's accuracy was further supported by Brier scores of 0.068 and 0.080 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating a strong correlation with actual outcomes. We have successfully established and validated a nomogram model for predicting VTE risk in lung cancer patients treated with ICIs.

Incidence and risk factors for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) in acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) - A single center experience

IntroductionInflammation-induced dysregulation of the coagulation cascade and vascular stasis in hospitalized patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) serve as a milieu for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) are often underrecognized. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors for VTE in a cohort of patients with ANP. MethodsAll adult patients with ANP at our center between 2009 and 2022 were followed for three months after index hospitalization and categorized into cases and controls based on development of VTE. Demographic, clinical, and radiologic characteristics during admission were compared. A multivariable analysis was done to identify independent predictors for VTE. A p value of <0.05 was taken as significant. ResultsAmong 643 ANP patients, 512 [males-350, median age-52 years] were eligible for inclusion. VTE developed in 64 (12.5 %) patients – 28 DVT (5 %), 22 PE (4 %) and both in 14 (3 %) after a median 16 days from the diagnosis of ANP. Significant independent predictors for VTE on multivariable analysis were age ≥60 years (OR 1.91; 95 % CI 1.04–3.53), peri-pancreatic extent of necrosis (OR 7.61; 95 % CI 3.94–14.70), infected necrosis (OR 2.26; 95 % CI 1.13–4.50) and total length of stay ≥14 days (OR 4.08; 95 % CI 1.75–9.50). ConclusionsThe overall incidence of VTE in our cohort of patients with ANP was 12.5 %, which was usually diagnosed within one month of hospitalization. High-risk patients can be stratified based on clinical and imaging characteristics and may benefit from intensive DVT screening and prophylaxis during hospitalization and following discharge.

Cohort study of prediction of venous thromboembolism in emergency department patients with extremity symptoms.

Despite diagnostic algorithms, identification of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in emergency departments (ED) remains a challenge. We evaluated symptoms, background, and laboratory data in 27,647 ED patients presenting with pain, swelling, or other symptoms from the extremities, and identified predictors of VTE diagnosis within one year. Predictors of a clinical decision to perform phlebography, ultrasound, or computer tomography (CT) angiography of pelvic, lower, or upper extremity veins, CT of pulmonary arteries, or pulmonary scintigraphy at the ED or within 30days, and the results of such investigations were also evaluated. A total of 3195 patients (11.6%) were diagnosed with VTE within one year. In adjusted analysis of patients in whom all laboratory data were available, a d-dimer value ≥ 0.5mg/l (odds ratio [OR]: 2.602; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.894-3.575; p < 0.001) at the ED and a previous diagnosis of VTE (OR: 6.037; CI 4.465-8.162; p < 0.001) independently predicted VTE within one year. Of diagnosed patients, 2355 (73.7%) had undergone imaging within 30days after the ED visit and 1730 (54.1%) were diagnosed at this examination. Lower age (OR: 0.984; CI 0.972-0.997; p = 0.014), higher blood hemoglobin (OR: 1.023; CI 1.010-1.037; p < 0.001), C-reactive protein (OR: 2.229; CI 1.433-3.468; p < 0.001), d-dimer (OR: 8.729; CI 5.614-13.574; p < 0.001), and previous VTE (OR: 7.796; CI 5.193-11.705; p < 0.001) predicted VTE on imaging within 30days, whereas female sex (OR 0.602 [95% CI 0.392-0.924]; p = 0.020) and a previous diagnosis of ischemic heart disease (OR 0.254 [95% CI 0.113-0.571]; p = 0.001) were negative predictors of VTE. In conclusion, analysis of 27,647 ED patients with extremity symptoms confirmed the importance of well-established risk factors for VTE. Many patients developing VTE within one year had initial negative imaging, highlighting the importance of continued symptom vigilance.

Combined coagulation and inflammation markers as predictors of venous thrombo-embolism and death in COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic related to SARS-CoV-2 virus was responsible for global pandemic. The severe form of the disease was linked to excessive activation of immune pathways together with a systemic cytokine storm response and thrombotic venous or arterial complications. Factors predicting severe outcomes including venous and/or pulmonary thrombosis (VT) and death were identified, but the prognostic role of their combination was not addressed extensively. We investigated the role of prognostic factors from the coagulation or inflammatory pathways to better understand the outcome of the disease. For this, we prospectively studied 167 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients from admission in intensive care units (ICU) or emergency departments from four academic hospitals over a 14-month period. Besides standard biology, we assessed serum concentrations of inflammatory markers, coagulation factors and peripheral blood cells immunophenotyping. Thirty-nine patients (23.3%) developed VT and 30 patients (18%) died. By univariate analysis, C-reactive protein (CRP) level > 150 mg/L, interleukin-6 (IL-6) ≥ 20 pg/mL, D-dimers > 1,500 μg/L, ADAMTS13 activity ≤ 50%, Von. A combination of coagulation and inflammatory markers can refine the prognostication of severe outcome in COVID-19, and could be useful for the initial evaluation of other types of viral infection.

Development of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Preoperative and Postoperative venous Thromboembolism in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Spinal Metastasis

Objective: This study aims to develop and compare machine learning models (MLMs) for predicting venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients undergoing surgery for spinal metastasis. The study evaluates the predictive capabilities of MLMs for preoperative and postoperative VTE within different time frames. Materials and Methods: A total of 334 patients undergoing surgery for spinal metastasis were included, with a mean age of 57.6 years and 57.2% being male. The investigation assessed postoperative VTE prevalence within 30 and 90 days, with pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) rates at 20% and 80%, respectively. Key patient-related factors—age, body mass index, preoperative ambulatory status, albumin level, hemoglobin level, partial thromboplastin time, and operative time—were considered potential predictors of VTE. Results: The postoperative VTE prevalence was 8.98% within 30 days and 13.47% within 90 days. Age, body mass index, preoperative ambulatory status, albumin level, hemoglobin level, partial thromboplastin time, and operative time emerged as significant VTE predictors. The gradient boosted tree algorithm was the best-performing MLM for predicting VTE within 90 days, with AUC values of 0.77 preoperatively and 0.71 postoperatively. For predicting VTE within 30 days, the support vector machine model was most effective, with AUCs of 0.72 preoperatively and 0.68 postoperatively. Conclusion: Predictive analytics and MLMs effectively predict preoperative and postoperative VTE in patients undergoing surgery for spinal metastasis. Identified key factors and MLM performance metrics offer valuable insights for risk assessment and preventive measures in this patient population.

Postoperative venous thromboembolism risk in patients with vulvar carcinoma: An analysis of the National surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database

ObjectivesDue to low incidence of vulvar cancer (VC), incidence and predictors for development of venous thromboembolism (VTE) are poorly understood. We examined incidence and risk factors associated with VTE in patients undergoing surgery for VC. MethodsWe included patients who underwent surgery for VC from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. VTE within the 30-day postoperative period was captured with Current Procedural Terminology codes. Baseline demographics and clinical characteristics were compared between patients with and without VTE. Univariable and multivariable-adjusted exact logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between risk factors and VTE. ResultsWe identified 1414 patients undergoing procedures for VC from the NSQIP database. Overall, 11 (0.8 %) patients developed VTE. Univariable predictors of VTE included surgery type [compared with simple vulvectomy: radical vulvectomy only (OR = 7.97, 95 % CI = 1.44, infinity) and radical vulvectomy plus unilateral IFN (OR = 15.98, 95 % CI = 2.70, infinity)], unplanned readmission (OR = 11.56, 95 % CI = 2.74, 46.38), deep surgical site infection (OR = 16.05, 95 % CI = 1.59–85.50), and preoperative thrombocytosis (OR = 6.53, 95 % CI = 0.00, 34.86). In a multivariable-adjusted model, longer operative time (≥72 min OR = 11.33, 95 % CI = 1.58–499.03) and preoperative functional status [compared with complete independence: total dependence (OR = 53.88, 95 % CI = 0.85, infinity) and partial dependence (OR = 53.88, 95 % CI = 0.85, infinity)] were associated with VTE. ConclusionIn this cohort of patients with VC undergoing radical vulvectomy, VTE incidence was low. Surgery type, longer operative time, dependent functional status, and wound disruption were identified as risk factors. Our findings highlight opportunities for prophylactic intervention in certain patients.

Predicting short-term thromboembolic risk following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass using supervised machine learning.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is a widely recognized bariatric procedure that is particularly beneficial for patients with class III obesity. It aids in significant weight loss and improves obesity-related medical conditions. Despite its effectiveness, postoperative care still has challenges. Clinical evidence shows that venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a leading cause of 30-d morbidity and mortality after RYGB. Therefore, a clear unmet need exists for a tailored risk assessment tool for VTE in RYGB candidates. To develop and internally validate a scoring system determining the individualized risk of 30-d VTE in patients undergoing RYGB. Using the 2016-2021 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation Quality Improvement Program, data from 6526 patients (body mass index ≥ 40 kg/m2) who underwent RYGB were analyzed. A backward elimination multivariate analysis identified predictors of VTE characterized by pulmonary embolism and/or deep venous thrombosis within 30 d of RYGB. The resultant risk scores were derived from the coefficients of statistically significant variables. The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating curves through 5-fold cross-validation. Of the 26 initial variables, six predictors were identified. These included a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with a regression coefficient (Coef) of 2.54 (P < 0.001), length of stay (Coef 0.08, P < 0.001), prior deep venous thrombosis (Coef 1.61, P < 0.001), hemoglobin A1c > 7% (Coef 1.19, P < 0.001), venous stasis history (Coef 1.43, P < 0.001), and preoperative anticoagulation use (Coef 1.24, P < 0.001). These variables were weighted according to their regression coefficients in an algorithm that was generated for the model predicting 30-d VTE risk post-RYGB. The risk model's area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.81], showing good discriminatory power, achieving a sensitivity of 0.60 and a specificity of 0.91. Without training, the same model performed satisfactorily in patients with laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy with an AUC of 0.63 (95%CI: 0.62-0.64) and endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty with an AUC of 0.76 (95%CI: 0.75-0.78). This simple risk model uses only six variables to assist clinicians in the preoperative risk stratification of RYGB patients, offering insights into factors that heighten the risk of VTE events.

254 Initiation of Low Molecular Weight Heparin Within 24 Hours Is Safe and Effective for VTE Prophylaxis in Spinal Cord Injury Patients

INTRODUCTION: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) following traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major clinical concern. Current guidelines recommend initiation of chemical prophylaxis within 72 hours of injury or surgery. Given the high reported incidence of VTE in this population, the safety and efficacy of earlier initiation is an important clinical question. METHODS: We analyzed prospectively collected data in a cohort of 162 SCI patients from a single quaternary center. Demographic and clinical data were recorded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of VTE in SCI patients treated with LMWH within 24 hours of injury or surgery. RESULTS: Mean age was 56.9 years (28% females). One hundred and thirty (87.8%) patients underwent SCI surgery. There was an extremity fracture in 18.2% and lumbar drain was placed in 22.3%. DVT occurred in 7.4%, PE in 6.1%, and any VTE in 12.2%. A multivariable regression model including age, sex, race, injury severity score, level of SCI, SCI surgery status, admission lower extremity motor score, and extremity fracture showed that only lower extremity motor score (OR 0.94, p=0.03) was significantly associated with VTE. There were 1.5% patients with post-SCI surgery-related bleeds requiring surgery takeback. There were 5.6% non-surgery related bleeds, and 1.2% wound dehiscence. CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of LMWH within 24 hours of injury or surgery maintained the incidence of any VTE event within the lower end of previously reported ranges with 1.5% of patients who underwent SCI surgery requiring surgery takeback due to bleeding complications. Admission lower extremity motor score was the sole predictor of VTE in this patient cohort.