Prediction Of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development Research Articles

UBE2T And CYP3A4: hub genes regulating the transformation of cirrhosis into hepatocellular carcinoma

Cirrhosis is the primary driver of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Blocking the deterioration of cirrhosis into HCC would be of benefit for long–term survival. We applied a series of bioinformatic online databases to select and analyze the hub genes concerning cirrhosis and HCC, and identified UBE2T and CYP3A4 as hub genes for cirrhosis-HCC transformation. An elevated UBE2T and a decreased CYP3A4 were expressed in HCC compared with cirrhosis, which have been confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR), Western Blotting (WB) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). The specificity (89.9%) and sensitivity (74.1%) on the combination of UBE2T and CYP3A4 for predicting HCC development in cirrhosis patients were better than that of UBE2T or CYP3A4 alone, or alpha-fetoprotein. The effectiveness of the combination of UBE2T and CYP3A4 was further verified by 15 paired HCC and paracancerous cirrhosis samples using RT–PCR, with a specificity of 100% and a sensitivity of 80%. HCC patients with elevated UBE2T and decreased CYP3A4 expression demonstrated a poorer overall survival rate (P = 0.0016, 0.019) and disease-free survival rate (P = 0.0013, 0.041). In conclusion, UBE2T and CYP3A4 could be a new combination of biomarkers for the carcinogenesis and progression of cirrhosis into HCC.

From the Editor's Desk…

From the Editor's Desk…

Interleukin-17 haplotyping predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in sofosbuvir, pegylated interferon-alpha-2a & ribavirin treated chronic hepatitis C patients

Suspect has been directed towards some direct acting antivirals (DAAs) due to their reported association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. The mechanisms behind HCC development, following CHC treatment, were not well understood and may be linked to genetic variabilities in different patients which affect several cytokine productions involved in angiogenesis and inflammation. Of these variabilities, is the genetic polymorphisms in the interleukin-17 (IL-17) A receptor gene. Being an important pleiotropic cytokine, this study aimed to investigate the association between haplotypes in IL-17A receptor rs2275913 and rs3819024 and development of HCC in CHC patients treated with either triple therapy (sofosbuvir (SOF), pegylated interferon-alpha-2a (Peg-IFNα-2a) & ribavirin(RBV)) or with dual therapy (Peg-IFNα-2a&RBV). A cohort of 100 CHC patients was recruited in this study. Samples were tested for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in IL-17A receptor (rs2275913 and rs3819024) using TaqMan Genotyping assay. Our results showed that the presence of G-G haplotype in IL-17A (rs2275913& rs3819024) is inversely associated with HCC development in patients receiving triple therapy. While, high serum AFP levels are directly associated with HCC development in patients receiving triple therapy. However, in patients receiving dual therapy, HCC development was only associated with high serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) levels and was not correlated to any specific allele in our studied SNPs. Such results highlight the importance of IL17A receptor gene haplotyping in the prediction of HCC development in patients receiving triple therapy. These results will aid in performing tailored, personalized strategy for CHC treatment.

Alpha-Fetoprotein, Protein Induced by Vitamin K Absence or Antagonist II and Glypican-3 for the Detection and Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Cirrhosis of Viral Etiology.

Simple SummaryCirculating biomarkers for the early detection and prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development are an unmet need. In the present study, we observed that serum values of three biomarkers (namely AFP, PIVKA-II and GPC-3) were significantly different between patients with cirrhosis and those with hepatocellular carcinoma; the best accuracy for the detection of tumors was achieved by a combination of AFP + PIVKA-II. However, PIVKA-II resulted as the only biomarker able to identify patients with cirrhosis at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development. The measurement of PIVKA-II in patients with cirrhosis at risk of tumor development may be useful to tailor personalized surveillance strategies and thus to improve patients’ survival.International guidelines recommend the use of ultrasound as a surveillance tool for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis, while the role of serum biomarkers is still debated. We investigated serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) and glypican-3 (GPC-3) diagnostic accuracy for HCC detection and prediction in patients with liver cirrhosis of viral etiology under surveillance. A total of 349 patients (200 cirrhosis and 149 HCC) were enrolled. The 200 patients with cirrhosis consisted of 114 patients still HCC-free after 36 months of follow-up and 86 patients that developed HCC after 13.8 (11.0–19.8) months. AFP, PIVKA-II and GPC-3 were measured in serum samples collected at tumor diagnosis in the 149 patients with HCC, and at the beginning of follow-up in the 200 patients with cirrhosis. The higher performance for HCC detection was observed for PIVKA-II (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.790), followed by AFP (AUC = 0.737) and GPC-3 (AUC = 0.637); the combination of AFP + PIVKA-II improved the diagnostic accuracy to AUC = 0.822. Serum PIVKA-II values, but not AFP and GPC-3, were significantly higher in the 86 cirrhotics that developed HCC compared with the 114 cirrhotics still HCC-free after 36 months of follow-up (p = 0.020). PIVKA-II ≥ 55 mAU/mL allowed to identify patients with cirrhosis at higher risk of HCC development (Log-rank test, p < 0.001; adjusted Hazard Ratio = 1.99, p = 0.001). In conclusion, the measurement of PIVKA-II in patients with cirrhosis may be useful to tailor personalized surveillance strategies.

A multi-centre study of trends in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk over time during long-term entecavir therapy.

The risk of developing hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced by antiviral therapy. Here, we evaluated the chronological trends in HCC development risk starting in 2007, when entecavir reimbursement was first initiated in South Korea. Treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving entecavir 0.5mg/d were stratified into three groups according to entecavir start time: early (2007-2010), middle (2011-2012) and late (2013-2014) cohorts Among 2442 patients, cumulative probabilities of developing HCC after 1, 3 and 5years were, respectively, 1.7%, 5.1%, and 8.2% (early cohort; n=672); 1.5%, 5.1% and 8.9% (middle cohort; n=757); and 1.2%, 5.3% and 10.6% (late cohort; n=1013; P>.05 between each pair). Older age, male, positive hepatitis B e antigen, liver cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class B (vs A) and lower platelet count significantly predicted HCC development in univariate analysis (P<.001), whereas entecavir start time (early vs middle vs late cohorts) did not affect the risk of HCC development (P=.457). A multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.041), male gender (aHR=2.069), liver cirrhosis (aHR=3.771) and Child-Pugh class B (vs A, aHR=1.548) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development, whereas higher platelet count was independently associated with a reduced risk of HCC development (aHR=0.993; all P<.05). In conclusion, the risk of developing HCC among patients receiving entecavir in South Korea has been stable since 2007. To establish more effective HCC surveillance programs, further studies regarding the carcinogenic roles of nonviral factors are required.

Post-treatment wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2-binding protein is a useful predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma development after hepatitis C virus eradication

Post-treatment wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2-binding protein is a useful predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma development after hepatitis C virus eradication

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in individuals without traditional risk factors: development and validation of a novel risk score.

Although hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs mostly in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or heavy alcohol use or cirrhosis, some patients develop HCC without these risk factors. Our objective in this study was to develop and validate a new HCC risk score that could stratify HCC risk in patients who develop HCC without known risk factors. A new HCC risk score was developed using a nationwide, population-based cohort among individuals without chronic HBV infection, chronic HCV infection, heavy alcohol use or cirrhosis (n = 467206, derivation cohort). The performance of the HCC risk score was validated using an independent Samsung Medical Center Health Promotion Center cohort (n = 91357, validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified six independent risk factors: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, total cholesterol level and serum alanine aminotransferase level. A 19-point scale for HCC risk score was developed, with 10-year risk of HCC ranging from 0.0% to 6.16% for the lowest and highest risk scores, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values (AUROCs) to predict HCC development were 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77, 0.88)] and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.95) at 10 years in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Predicted risk was well correlated with the Kaplan-Meier observed HCC risk. A simple-to-use, novel HCC risk score was developed for predicting HCC development in individuals without alleged risk factors. It can be used to assess the risk of HCC in this population so that decisions about their clinical management, including risk reduction interventions, can be subsequently made.

AMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n= 13,686). We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n= 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n= 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n= 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

Non-invasive tests for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies in the world and it is one of the main complications of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Even in the presence of a well-established follow-up protocol for cirrhotic patients, to date poor data are available on predictive markers for primary HCC occurrence in the setting of compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients (cACLD). The gold standard method to evaluate the prognosis of patients with cACLD, beyond liver fibrosis assessed with histology, is the measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). An HVPG ≥10 mmHg has been related to an increased risk of HCC in cACLD patients. However, these methods are burdened by additional costs and risks for patients and are mostly available only in referral centers. In the last decade increasing research has focused on the evaluation of several, simple, non-invasive tests (NITs) as predictors of HCC development. We reviewed the currently available literature on biochemical and ultrasound-based scores developed for the non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension in predicting primary HCC. We found that the most reliable methods to assess HCC risk were the liver stiffness measurement, the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index score and the fibrosis-4 index. Other promising NITs need further investigations and validation for different liver disease aetiologies.

Novel biomarkers for the management of chronic hepatitis B.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) cannot be eliminated completely from infected hepatocytes because of the presence of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA). As chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), it is important to manage CHB to prevent HCC development in high-risk patients with high viral replicative activity or advanced fibrosis. Serum biomarkers are noninvasive and valuable for the management of CHB. Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) correlates with serum HBV DNA and intrahepatic cccDNA. In CHB patients with undetectable serum HBV DNA or loss of HBsAg, HBcrAg still can be detected and the decrease in HBcrAg levels is significantly associated with hopeful outcomes. Therefore, HBcrAg can predict HCC occurrence or recurrence. Measurement of the Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) has been introduced for the evaluation of liver fibrosis. Because elevated M2BPGi in CHB is related to liver fibrosis and the prediction of HCC development, monitoring its progression is essential. Because alpha fetoprotein (AFP) has insufficient sensitivity and specificity for early-stage HCC, a combination of AFP plus protein induced by vitamin K absence factor II, or AFP plus Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein might improve the diagnosis of HCC development. Additionally, Dickkopf-1 and circulating immunoglobulin G antibodies are the novel markers to diagnose HCC or assess HCC prognosis. This review provides an overview of novel HBV biomarkers used for the management of intrahepatic viral replicative activity, liver fibrosis, and HCC development.

Dynamics of liver stiffness-based risk prediction model during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

The liver stiffness-based risk prediction models predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We investigated the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on liver stiffness-based risk prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Patients with CHB who initiated AVT were retrospectively recruited from 13 referral Korean institutes. The modified risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (mREACH-B) model was selected for the analysis. Between 2007 and 2015, 1034 patients with CHB were recruited. The mean age of the study population (639 men and 395 women) was 46.8 years. During AVT, the mREACH-B score significantly decreased from the baseline to 3 years of AVT (mean 9.21 → 7.46, P < 0.05) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (mean 7.23, P > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (mREACH-B score ≥11) was significantly reduced from the baseline to 2 years of AVT (36.4% → 16.4%, P < 0.001) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (12.2%, P > 0.05). The mREACH-B scores at baseline and 1 year of AVT independently predicted HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.209-1.224) (all P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC was significantly different at 5 years of AVT among risk groups (high vs. high-intermediate vs. low-intermediate vs. low) from baseline (4.5% vs. 3.2% vs. 1.5% vs. 0.8%) and 1 year (11.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 1.8% vs. 0.6%) (all P < 0.05, log-rank tests). The mREACH-B score was dynamically changed during AVT. Thus, repeated assessment of the mREACH-B score is required to predict the changing risk of HCC development in patients with CHB undergoing AVT.

Predictive score for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis B e antigen loss in patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir.

The risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance (ESC) remains unclear. We established and validated a new risk prediction model for HCC development after ESC in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). Between 2006 and 2016, 769 patients (training cohort) and 1,061 patients (validation cohort) with CHB who experienced ESC during AVT using entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were recruited. In the multivariate analysis, male sex (hazard ratio [HR]=2.092; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.152-3.800), cirrhosis (HR=5.141; 95% CI=2.367-11.167) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) of >3.25 (HR=2.070; 95% CI=1.184-3.620) were the independent risk factors for HCC development (all P<.05). Accordingly, a novel HCC-ESCAVT model was developed (1x[sex: male=1, female=0]+3x(cirrhosis=1, noncirrhosis=0)+1x(FIB-4: >3.25=1, ≤3.25=0). The cumulative risk for HCC development was significantly different among the risk groups based on the HCC-ESCAVT category (0-1, 2-4 and 5 for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively) (overall P<.001, log-rank test). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting HCC development 3, 5 and 10years after ESC was 0.791, 0.771 and 0.790, respectively (all P<.05). The predictive value of the HCC-ESCAVT model was similar in the validation cohort (AUC=0.802, 0.774 and 0.776 at 3, 5 and 10years, respectively; all P<.05). Hence, we have developed and validated a new HCC-ESCAVT model for HCC development, which includes male sex, cirrhosis and FIB-4 of >3.25 as constituent variables.

Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac-2 Binding Protein but not α-fetoprotein as a Long-Term Hepatocellular Carcinoma Predictor.

Identification of high-risk patients for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virological responses (SVR) is necessary to define candidates for long-term surveillance. In this study, we examined whether serum markers after 1 year of SVR could predict subsequent HCC development. Total 734 chronic hepatitis C patients without a history of HCC who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals were included. The regular surveillance for HCC started from 24 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR24). Factors at SVR24 and 1 year after SVR24 were analyzed for predicting HCC development. During the mean observation period of 19.7 ± 10 months, 24 patients developed HCC. At SVR24, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein (WFA±M2BP) ≥ 1.85 and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 6.0 ng/mL were independent factors of HCC development. However, at 1 year after SVR24, WFA±M2BP ≥ 1.85 was associated with subsequent HCC development (hazard ratio: 23.5, 95% confidence interval: 2.68–205) but not AFP. Among patients with WFA±M2BP ≥ 1.85 at SVR24, 42% had WFA±M2BP < 1.85 at 1 year after SVR24 (WFA±M2BP declined group). Subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in the declined group than in the non-declined group (1 year HCC rate: 0% vs. 9.4%, p = 0.04). In conclusion, WFA±M2BP but not AFP could identify high and no-risk cases of HCC at 1 year after SVR. Therefore, it was useful as a real-time monitoring tool to identify the candidates for continuous surveillance for HCC.

On-treatment Serum Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer (M2BPGi) Level and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B during Nucleot(s)ide Analogue Therapy.

We aimed to analyze the serum level of a novel fibrosis marker, Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi), and its predictive value for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) under nucleot(s)ide analogue (NA) therapy. Serum M2BPGi levels were quantified in 147 CHB patients at baseline, 48 weeks after starting NA therapy, and at the patients’ last visit. The serum M2BPGi level serially decreased at each time point. During the median follow-up time of 6.6 years, 14 of 147 patients developed HCC. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that high serum M2BPGi at 48 weeks was an independent risk factor for HCC development. A cutoff value of M2BPGi at 48 weeks > 1.5 showed an adjusted hazard ratio = 34.9 (95% confidence interval, 4.3–284.9). The 3- and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with low M2BPGi were 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively, whereas those in patients with high M2BPGi were 10.1% and 25.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, Serum M2BPGi level at 48 weeks is a useful predictor for HCC development in patients with CHB who receive NA therapy.

Fibrosis-4, aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio for risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients: comparison with liver biopsy.

It is well known that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops as a consequence of hepatic fibrosis progression. Thus, early identification of advanced liver fibrosis is very important. This study evaluated the prognostic value of FIB-4, the aspartate transaminase to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and the gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-toplatelet ratio (GPR) for predicting HCC development using histological fibrosis stage as a reference in Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. A total of 444 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy and serological tests for determining noninvasive serum fibrosis markers were enrolled. All patients were followed to monitor HCC development. The histological fibrosis stage showed best performance in predicting HCC development at 5 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.783) and 7 years (AUROC = 0.766), followed by FIB-4 (AUROC = 0.753 at 5 years, 0.698 at 7 years), APRI (AUROC = 0.658 at 5 years, 0.572 at 7 years), and GPR (AUROC = 0.638 at 5 years, 0.603 at 7 years). When we classified risk groups according to the histological fibrosis stage (F4 vs. F0-3) and FIB-4 (FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 vs. FIB-4 < 3.25), patients in the high-risk group were found to have a significantly higher probability of developing HCC than those in the low-risk group (P=0.005 and 0.022, respectively, log-rank test). Our study demonstrated that FIB-4 is useful for the noninvasive prediction of HCC development, while APRI and GPR were less useful.

Validation of hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in Japanese chronic hepatitis B cohort receiving nucleot(s)ide analog.

The prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development during nucleotide/nucleoside analog (NA) therapy is clinically important in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Although several useful models for HCC prediction have been previously reported, their usefulness in the Japanese population is unclear. Therefore, this study examines the applicability of these models in Japanese patients. Four hundred forty-three patients with no history of HCC who were treated with entecavir, tenofovir alafenamide, or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were enrolled. PAGE-B, modified-PAGE-B, and REACH-B scores were calculated, and subsequent HCC development was investigated. The mean follow-up duration was 5.1years, and a total of 33 patients (7.4%) developed HCC during the follow-up period. Multivariate analysis revealed that old age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.09, P=0.011), male gender (HR 2.62, 95% CI 1.06-6.49, P=0.037), and low platelet count (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.91, P<0.001) were independent predictors of HCC development. These factors are the same as the factors identified in the PAGE-B model. Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve revealed that the AUROCs for 3 and 7years of PAGE-B (AUROC: 0.786 and 0.744 at 3 and 7years, respectively) were continuously higher than those of REACH-B (0.658 and 0.543) and modified PAGE-B AUROC (0.772 and 0.731). PAGE-B, which can easily identify high-risk cases, can be useful for predicting HCC development in Japanese patients treated with NA therapy.

Novel Biomarkers of Hepatitis B and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Clinical Significance of HBcrAg and M2BPGi.

The hepatitis B virus (HBV) cannot be removed completely from infected hepatocytes, owing to the presence of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA). As chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), predicting HCC development in high-risk patients with high viral replicative activity or advanced fibrosis is important. Novel serological biomarkers reflect intrahepatic viral replicative activity or the progression of liver fibrosis, indicating non-invasive alternatives to liver biopsy: (1) Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) correlates with serum HBV DNA and intrahepatic cccDNA. In CHB patients, a decrease in HBcrAg is associated with favorable outcomes. HBcrAg can predict HCC occurrence or recurrence. (2) Measurement of the Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) has been introduced for the evaluation of liver fibrosis. An increase in M2BPGi in CHB patients is related to the progression of liver fibrosis and high potential (risk) of HCC development. Here, we describe the clinical applications of HBcrAg and M2BPGi in CHB patients. Additionally, because new potential therapeutic agents that eliminate intrahepatic cccDNA are being developed, monitoring of HBcrAg or M2BPGi might be suitable for evaluating therapeutic effects and the clinical outcomes. In conclusion, these would be appropriate surrogate markers for predicting disease progression.

Генетические маркеры риска развития гепатоцеллюлярной карциномы, ассоциированной с гепатитом С, в этнической группе якутов-мужчин

Objective. To analyze associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in some genes located on the X chromosome and risks for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Yakut males with chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV). Patients and methods. We examined 140 Yakut males with chronic HCV in the stage of liver cirrhosis formation. In 41 of them, chronic hepatitis was complicated by HCC. All patients were tested for SNPs in the genes located on the X chromosome, including TLR7 (rs179008); TLR7 (rs179009); TLR8 (rs3764879); TLR8 (rs3764880); IRAK1 (rs3027898); MECP2 (rs1734791); TAB3 (rs1000129516); ELK1 (rs1000619237); GPC3 (rs2267531). Results. We found no significant differences in the frequencies of specific alleles of genes involved in TLR7 signaling between patients with chronic HCV and patients with HCC. However, there were significant differences in the distribution of variable sites in the rs2267531 locus of the GPC3 gene. The GPC3 gene encodes glypican-3 known as a regulator of cell proliferation and a highly specific HCC tumor marker. GPC3 mutations are inherited as an X-linked recessive trait and only males manifest this condition. The number of C-allele carriers among HCC patients was 1.5 higher than that among HCV patients without HCC. We found that chronic HCV patients carrying the C-allele are 2.7 times more likely to develop HCC than G-allele carriers (p = 0.0095). Conclusion. We found a SNP in the GPC3 gene, which C-allele was associated with an increased risk of HCC in Yakut males with chronic HCV. This genetic marker can be used for personalized prognosis of the disease course and as a predictor of HCC development in patients with liver cirrhosis. Key words: hepatitis C, hepatocellular carcinoma, glypican-3, single-nucleotide polymorphisms, Toll-like receptors, X chromosome, Yakuts

Baseline Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer Level Stratifies Risks of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients with Oral Antiviral Therapy

Background and Aims: Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a novel biomarker correlating with liver fibrosis stages. However, little is known about how it predicts risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving long-term antiviral treatment. Materials and Methods: The study contained 2 parts. The first part was to explore whether M2BPGi could be an HCC predictor in 899 CHB patients receiving long-term entecavir therapy. The second part was to validate the findings in an independent cohort of 384 on-treatment CHB patients with more severe liver disease. Results: In the discovery cohort, there were 64 patients developing HCC within an average follow-up of 7.01 years. Our data showed that M2BPGi level was positively associated with HCC development. When stratifying the patients by an M2BPGi level of 1.73 (the third quartile), the high M2BPGi group was shown to have an increased HCC risk compared to the low M2BPGi group with hazard ratio of 5.80 (95% CI 3.50–9.60). Furthermore, we found that the M2BPGi level complements PAGE-B score, a well-validated HCC prediction model, to predict HCC development. Lastly, the cutoff was validated in the independent cohort, especially those with an intermediate PAGE-B score. Conclusions: In CHB patients receiving long-term antiviral treatment, serum M2BPGi level not only serves as an independent HCC predictor but also complements PAGE-B in stratifying HCC risks.

Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio and the fibrosis-4 index in predicting hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma development in elderly chronic hepatitis B patients in China: A single-center retrospective study.

Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (GPR) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index have been reported to be useful predictors in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. However, their predictive performances on HCC development have not been validated in elderly patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive values of the GPR and FIB-4 index on HCC in elderly CHB patients with in China.Between January 2007 and December 2016, 1011 CHB patients older than 60 years were enrolled in the study, and their data were retrospectively analyzed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff points of GPR and the FIB-4 index. Cumulative HCC incidence rates were calculated by the Kaplan–Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to detect risk factors for HCC development. The prediction performances of GPR and FIB-4 index were compared based on time-dependent ROC analyses.After a median follow-up of 6.8 (interquartile range 3.9–8.4) years, 39 (3.9%) patients developed HCC. The ROC analysis of GPR and the FIB-4 index at the 5-year time point revealed that the optimal cutoff point was 0.23 for GPR and 4.15 for the FIB-4 index. When stratified by low and high GPR values and FIB-4 indices, the patients’ subgroups showed significantly different cumulative incidences of HCC. The multivariate analysis revealed that high GPR (hazard ratio [HR] 4.224; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.891–9.434, P < .001) was an independent risk factor for HCC development, whereas a high FIB-4 index was not (HR 0.470; 95% CI 0.212–1.043; P = .063). In the time-dependent ROC analysis, GPR showed higher area under curve (AUC) values than the FIB-4 index did at all time points and reached statistical significance at the 5-, 7-, and 10-year time points (GPR vs FIB-4 index, AUC 0.725 vs 0.549 at 5 years, P = .005; GPR vs FIB-4 index, AUC 0.733 vs 0.578 at 7 years, P = .001; GPR vs FIB-4 index, AUC 0.837 vs 0.475 at 10 years, P < .001).In conclusion, our study suggests GPR is superior to the FIB-4 index in predicting HCC development in elderly CHB patients in China.