Predicted Habitat Suitability Research Articles

Integrating presence-only and occupancy data to model habitat use for the northernmost population of jaguars.

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence-only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process-based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km2 of usable habitat in our study region. The United States portion of the study region, which makes up 38.6% of the total area, contained 40.6% of the total usable habitat. Even though there have been few detections of jaguars in the southwestern USA in recent decades, our results suggest that protection of currently suitable habitats, along with increased conservation efforts, could significantly contribute to the recovery of jaguars in the USA.

Using citizen science to study a mesocarnivore: the jungle catFelis chausin Sri Lanka

AbstractWe used citizen science and inexpensive methodology to assess the distribution of the jungle catFelis chaus, a relatively common species in Sri Lanka but the least studied of the four wild cat species occurring in the country. We obtained three types of records of the jungle cat: geo-referenced photographs of the species from the public; sightings obtained from print and social media, and provided via an online sighting form; and sightings by field biologists. We combined the 112 unique records obtained in this way with the 21 records from the 2012 National Red List distribution map of the species, and usedMaxEntto predict habitat suitability for the species. The new sightings were primarily in drier regions, expanding the known extent of occurrence for this species in Sri Lanka. Of the new sightings, 7.1% were road kills. Distance to nearest riverine forest, annual precipitation and distance to the nearest reservoir were the most important variables explaining habitat suitability. These findings validate our hypotheses that the species is more widespread than demonstrated previously and also ranges in human-dominated landscapes outside protected areas. Our study provides a model for how ecological and behavioural information for common species can be obtained inexpensively and incorporated into species distribution models. Studies of species such as the jungle cat, which are neither threatened nor charismatic, will help ensure that we keep common species common.

Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic.

Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum. The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951–2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for E. verrucosa, where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081–2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for E. verrucosa beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for E. verrucosa, although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For A. digitatum, this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with E. verrucosa, there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region.

Identification, Microhabitat, and Ecological Niche Prediction of Two Promising Native Parasitoids of Tuta absoluta in Kenya.

Simple SummarySince the arrival of Tuta absoluta, a multivoltine insect species whose larvae develop in leaves, fruits, flowers, buds, and stems of tomatoes, producers are facing one of its biggest production challenges. The pest continues to invade new areas, causing heavy losses in the tomato value chain. Sprays of synthetic insecticides have shown very low efficacy on this pest because of its inclination to develop resistance to various insecticide-active ingredients. Biological control is one of the most promising solutions for the management of this pest. In this work, we investigated the most efficient indigenous parasitoids associated with T. absoluta in Kenya and their preferable habitat and ecological niche suitability. We identified two species, Stenomesius sp. near japonicus and Bracon nigricans, with up to 17% and 21% parasitism respectively. Stenomesius sp. near japonicus was more abundant in greenhouses and non-insecticide-treated tomatoes while B. nigricans was more abundant in the field tomatoes with a low abundance of Nesidiocoris tenuis. The ecological niche of these two species showed that B. nigricans was suitable for establishment in sub-Saharan Africa, a big part of South America, and Australia in both current and future scenarios.Associations between the South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), and its native parasitoids need to be updated to increase the implementation of pest control strategies. In this study, T. absoluta-infested tomato plants were collected from three regions in Kenya. The emerged parasitoids were identified, and their abundance was correlated with agroecological parameters, viz. cropping systems, and the abundance of the predator Nesidiocoris tenuis Reuter (Hemiptera: Miridae). The study further conducted a habitat suitability prediction for the identified parasitoids. Two parasitoid species, Bracon nigricans (Szépligeti) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and Stenomesius sp. near japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) emerged from T. absoluta immature stages, with parasitism rates ranging from 0 to 21% and 0 to 17% respectively. Insecticide application and open field cropping negatively influenced the parasitism by S. sp. nr japonicus. Low occurrence of N. tenuis positively affected B. nigricans parasitism. The predicted occurrence of parasitoid species indicated vast suitable areas for B. nigricans in sub-Saharan Africa, Australia, and South America. Low suitability was observed for S. sp. nr japonicus in Africa. Therefore, native parasitoids, especially B. nigricans could be considered for implementation as a biocontrol agent in the Integrated Pest Management program of T. absoluta.

Assessing the distribution of invasive Asian mosquitoes in Northern Italy and modelling the potential spread of Aedes koreicus in Europe

In the last decade, Aedes koreicus and Aedes japonicus japonicus mosquitoes, which are competent vectors for various arboviruses of public health relevance, colonised Italy and other European countries. Nevertheless, information about their current and potential distribution is partial. Accordingly, in this study four regions of Northern Italy (Lombardy, Liguria, Piedmont and Aosta Valley) were surveyed during 2021 for the presence of eggs, larvae and pupae of these two invasive species. We found evidence for a widespread presence of Ae. koreicus in pre-Alpine territories of Lombardy and Piedmont. Larvae from the invasive subspecies of Ae. j. japonicus were also collected in the same geographic areas, though they were less frequent. Occurrence data from this study and results from previous monitoring campaigns were used to generate a Maxent model for the prediction of habitat suitability for Ae. koreicus mosquitoes in Northern Italy and the rest of Europe. Peri-urban areas located in proximity to forests, pastures and vineyards were revealed as highly suitable environments for colonisation by this invasive species. Maps of the potential distribution also suggest the presence of further suitable areas in currently uncolonized countries. We conclude that this invasive mosquito species has the potential for a broad expansion at the European level in the coming decades.

The utility of a maximum entropy species distribution model for Ixodes scapularis in predicting the public health risk of Lyme disease in Ontario, Canada

Lyme disease is an emerging public health threat in Ontario, Canada due to ongoing range expansion of the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Tick density is an important predictor of human Lyme disease risk and is typically measured using active tick surveillance via drag sampling, which is time and resource-intensive. New cost-effective tools are needed to augment current surveillance activities. Our objective was to evaluate the ability of a maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution model to predict I. scapularis density in three regions of Ontario – Ottawa, Kingston, and southern Ontario – in order to determine its utility in predicting the public health risk of Lyme disease. Ticks were collected via drag sampling at 60 sites across the three regions. Model-predicted habitat suitability was calculated from a previously constructed Maxent model as the mean predicted habitat suitability within a 1-km radius of each site. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to quantify the continuous relationship between model-predicted habitat suitability and tick density, and negative binomial regression was used to quantify the relationship between tick density and model-predicated habitat suitability. Spearman's correlation coefficients for the full study area, Kingston region, and Ottawa region were 0.517, 0.707, and 0.537, respectively, indicating a moderate positive relationship and ability of the model to predict tick density. Regression analysis further demonstrated a significant positive association between tick density and model-predicted habitat suitability (p< 0.001). Using a dichotomized measure of model-predicted habitat suitability, the incidence rate ratio – the ratio of ticks per m2 in sites predicted to have a ‘suitable’ habitat compared to those predicted to have ‘not suitable’ habitat – was 33.95, indicating that tick density was significantly higher at sites situated in areas with predicted suitable habitat. Given that tick density is an important component of Lyme disease risk, the ability to predict high tick density locations using the Maxent model may make it a cost-effective tool for identifying geographic areas that pose elevated public health risk of Lyme disease.

Competition mediates understorey species range shifts under climate change

Abstract Biological communities are reshuffling owing to species range shifts in response to climate change. This process inherently leads to novel assemblages of interacting species. Yet, how climatic change and local dynamics in biotic interactions jointly affect range shifts is still poorly understood. We combine a unique long‐term transplant competition‐exclusion experiment with species distribution models (SDMs) to test the effects of biotic interactions on understorey species range shifts under climate change in European temperate forests. Using a time series of 18 years of individual‐level demographic data of four common understorey plant species transplanted beyond their cold range edge to plots with and without interspecific competition, we built integral projection models (IPMs) and analysed the effects of competition on five key vital rates and population growth (λ). We assessed the results of the transplant experiment in the context of the modelled species' current and future potential distributions. We find that species' population performances in the transplant experiment decreased with lower predicted habitat suitability from the SDMs. The population performance at the transplant sites was mediated by biotic interactions with the local plant community: for two species with intermediate levels of predicted habitat suitability at the transplant sites, competition effects could explicitly differentiate between net population growth (λ &gt; 1) or shrinkage (λ &lt; 1). Synthesis. Our findings contest the long‐standing idea that at cold range edges, mainly abiotic factors structure species' distributions. We conclude that biotic interactions, through acting on local population dynamics, may impact species distributions at the continental scale. Hence, predicting climate‐change impacts on biodiversity redistributions ultimately requires us to also integrate dynamics in biotic interactions.

Range-wide habitat use of the Harpy Eagle indicates four major tropical forest gaps in the Key Biodiversity Area network

Abstract Quantifying habitat use is important for understanding how animals meet their requirements for survival and provides information for conservation planning. Currently, assessments of range-wide habitat use that delimit species distributions are incomplete for many taxa. The Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a raptor of conservation concern, widely distributed across Neotropical lowland forests, that currently faces threats from habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we use penalized logistic regression to identify species-habitat associations and predict habitat suitability based on a new International Union for the Conservation of Nature range metric, termed Area of Habitat. From the species-habitat model, we performed a gap analysis to identify areas of high habitat suitability in regions with limited coverage in the key biodiversity area (KBA) network. Range-wide habitat use indicated that Harpy Eagles prefer areas of 70%–75% evergreen forest cover, low elevation, and high vegetation species richness. Conversely, Harpy Eagles avoid areas of &amp;gt;10% cultivated landcover and mosaic forest, and topographically complex areas. Our species-habitat model identified a large continuous area of potential habitat across the pan-Amazonia region, and a habitat corridor from the Chocó-Darién ecoregion of Colombia running north along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Little habitat was predicted across the Atlantic Forest biome, which is now severely degraded. The current KBA network covered 18% of medium to high Harpy Eagle habitat exceeding a target biodiversity area representation of 10%, based on species range size. Four major areas of high suitability habitat lacking coverage in the KBA network were identified in north and west Colombia, western Guyana, and north-west Brazil. We recommend these multiple gaps of habitat as new KBAs for strengthening the current KBA network. Modeled area of habitat estimates as described here is a useful tool for large-scale conservation planning and can be readily applied to many taxa.

MaxEnt Modelling and Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability Variations of Economically Important Chilgoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana Wall.) in South Asia

Chilgoza pine is an economically and ecologically important evergreen coniferous tree species of the dry and rocky temperate zone, and a native of south Asia. This species is rated as near threatened (NT) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This study hypothesized that climatic, soil and topographic variations strongly influence the distribution pattern and potential habitat suitability prediction of Chilgoza pine. Accordingly, this study was aimed to document the potential habitat suitability variations of Chilgoza pine under varying environmental scenarios by using 37 different environmental variables. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm in MaxEnt software was used to forecast the potential habitat suitability under current and future (i.e., 2050s and 2070s) climate change scenarios (i.e., Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): 245 and 585). A total of 238 species occurrence records were collected from Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, and employed to build the predictive distribution model. The results showed that normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature of coldest quarter, isothermality, precipitation of driest month and volumetric fraction of the coarse soil fragments (&gt;2 mm) were the leading predictors of species presence prediction. High accuracy values (&gt;0.9) of predicted distribution models were recorded, and remarkable shrinkage of potentially suitable habitat of Chilgoza pine was followed by Afghanistan, India and China. The estimated extent of occurrence (EOO) of the species was about 84,938 km2, and the area of occupancy (AOO) was about 888 km2, with 54 major sub-populations. This study concluded that, as the total predicted suitable habitat under current climate scenario (138,782 km2) is reasonably higher than the existing EOO, this might represent a case of continuous range contraction. Hence, the outcomes of this research can be used to build the future conservation and management plans accordingly for this economically valuable species in the region.

Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula.

Global changes may direct species expansion away from their current range. When such an expansion occurs, and the species colonizes a new region, it is important to monitor the habitat used by the species and utilize the information to updated management strategies. Water deer (Hydropotes inermis) is listed as Vulnerable species in IUCN Red List and is restricted to east central China and the Korean Peninsula. Since 2017, water deer has expanded its range towards northeast China and the Russian Far East. The objective of our study is to provide support for a better understanding of habitat use and provide suggestions for developing conservation strategy. We collected occurrence data in northeast China and the Russian Far East during 2017–2021. We used MaxEnt to predict habitat suitability for water deer and applied Circuitscape to determine possible dispersal routes for the species. We used seven environmental variables, viz., altitude, slope, aspect, distance to built-up area, distance to water source, distance to cropland and distance to roads for habitat suitability prediction. We chose the MaxEnt model (AICc = 2572.86) suitable for our data with the AUC value result of 0.935±0.014. There is good quality habitat for water deer in the boundary area of the Yalu and Tumen River estuaries between China, North Korea, and the Russian Far East, as well as the east and west regions of the Korean Peninsula. We identified three main suitable habitat patches, two of them located in east (NK2) and west (NK3) North Korea, and one in the newly colonized area downstream of the Tumen River along the border of China, Russia, and North Korea (TM1). Elevation, distance to cropland and water sources, and presence of wetlands were the variables that positively contributed to modelling the suitable habitats. Two possible dispersal routes were determined using the circuit theory, one was across the area from North Korea to the downstream Tumen transboundary region (Route B), and the other was across North Korea to the boundary region in China and along the tiger national park in northern China (Route A). A series of protected areas in North Korea, China, and Russia may support the dispersal of water deer. From the study on water deer dispersal, we can understand the existing ecological network in northeast Asia, which will benefit the whole landscape and biodiversity conservation. However, there are many threats present, and there is need for continued monitoring inside and outside the protected areas. Information sharing with stakeholders and carrying out local communities awareness activities are important. The establishment of a Northeast Asia landscape conservation network would help establish monitoring and conservation planning at a broad scale, and this study provides an example of the need for such a network.

Distribution Drivers of the Alien Butterfly Geranium Bronze (Cacyreus marshalli) in an Alpine Protected Area and Indications for an Effective Management.

Simple SummaryCacyreus marshalli is strictly dependent on its host plant (Pelargonium spp.), which is widely cultivated as an ornamental plant in mountain areas. An experiment demonstrated that the butterfly is able to develop on some wild geraniums, too, making mountain areas highly at risk for a potential expansion to natural habitats. We therefore decided to carry out research in a protected mountain area (Gran Paradiso National Park), focusing on the drivers which determine the distribution of C. marshalli using data provided by either an opportunistic approach or a rigorous survey protocol. The data collected via the planned survey were more informative than the opportunistic observations, which were few and narrow. We suggest investing more in citizen science projects and combining them with a designed protocol according to an integrated approach. We observed that C. marshalli distribution is strictly linked to host plant availability but is constrained by cold temperatures, although Pelargonium spp. are abundant. The temperature increase scenario showed an increase of butterfly abundance, but halving of the host plant population could drive the rate of infestation to return to what it was previously, excluding a countertrend in some high-altitude sites. It is therefore important to test management actions designed to control alien species before implementing them.Cacyreus marshalli is the only alien butterfly in Europe. It has recently spread in the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP), where it could potentially compete with native geranium-consuming butterflies. Our study aimed to (1) assess the main drivers of its distribution, (2) evaluate the potential species distribution in GPNP and (3) predict different scenarios to understand the impact of climate warming and the effect of possible mitigations. Considering different sampling designs (opportunistic and standardised) and different statistical approaches (MaxEnt and N-mixture models), we built up models predicting habitat suitability and egg abundance for the alien species, testing covariates as bioclimatic variables, food plant (Pelargonium spp.) distribution and land cover. A standardised approach resulted in more informative data collection due to the survey design adopted. Opportunistic data could be potentially informative but a major investment in citizen science projects would be needed. Both approaches showed that C. marshalli is associated with its host plant distribution and therefore confined in urban areas. Its expansion is controlled by cold temperatures which, even if the host plant is abundant, constrain the number of eggs. Rising temperatures could lead to an increase in the number of eggs laid, but the halving of Pelargonium spp. populations would mostly mitigate the trend, with a slight countertrend at high elevations.

Predicting habitat suitability for the endangered species Hedysarum criniferum Boiss. using a fuzzy model in the semi-arid zone in Iran

The present study explored the habitat suitability for an endangered species, Hedysarum criniferum, in Iran using fuzzy logic. We measured 24 environmental variables including soil, climate, and physiographic variables of eight natural habitats of H. criniferum as the predictive variables and the percent cover of the species as the response variable. The most important environmental factors influencing species distribution and the species response curves were determined by principal component analysis (PCA) and the generalized linear model, respectively. The tolerance range and the optimal growth point of the studied species with respect to the environmental factors were specified, the ranges were divided into 11 classes by fuzzy value, and the fuzzy functions of the environmental factors were calculated. The species habitats were classified by the developed fuzzy model. Three regions with no H. criniferum occurrence were selected to determine their fuzzy suitability. The success in germination and shoot growth length of H. criniferum were used as the metrics of the habitat suitability in these regions. Based on the PCA, H. criniferum occurrence was most strongly affected by soil Mg, K, and Ca content, soil pH, wind speed, annual minimum temperature, slope, and altitude. The results revealed that the seedling length and germination percentage in the site with the fuzzy suitability of 0.6 differed from those in the two other sites with the fuzzy suitability of 0.5 and 0.3 significantly. The method used in this study can be employed in predicting optimal habitats for other endangered species in different ecosystems.

Simple models to quickly estimate the probable range of data‐limited riverine fishes

AbstractSpecies distribution models provide biologists with insight into species ranges, ecological niches, and spatial predictions of suitable habitat, but require significant training, data, and time for biologists to obtain reliable results. Alternatively, ad hoc inferences from sparse occurrence records leave biologists to face conservation decisions with high uncertainty. Simple predictive models can fill the gap between these two alternatives. One method to predict the probable range of riverine fishes is to add the average distance between occurrences to the most distal occurrence (parametric estimator). However, there are drawbacks to this method when the distances between occurrences deviate from a non‐uniform distribution. Herein, estimators that are robust to non‐uniformity, a non‐parametric and an optimal linear estimator, were adapted and compared to the parametric estimator using simulations. The non‐parametric estimator showed the least bias and variance in bias for the probable range endpoint. The optimal linear estimator best balanced type I and type II errors in the maximum probable range estimate (i.e., upper CI). Application of the robust estimators were made to demonstrate how sampling can be planned based on available effort (Gulf Coast walleye, Sander vitreus) and where early detection sampling may be focused (silver carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix). This study provides biologists with a suite of simple options (R code provided as supplementary material) to bridge the gap between ad hoc inference and complex modeling over a range of scenarios. Future studies should focus on accounting for false‐positives, variable effort, and develop online apps for accessibility.

Fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus distribution and habitat suitability in Nepal.

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist species endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. To assess their distribution, we compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n = 154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009–2020). Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the fishing cat habitat suitability using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat habitat suitability was associated with elevation (152–302 m), precipitation of the warmest quarter, i.e., April–June (668–1014 mm), precipitation of the driest month (4–7 mm), and land cover (forest/grassland and wetland). The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6679 km2) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two‐thirds of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas; however, a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat suitability map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long‐term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and studying their genetic connectivity and population status.

Widespread occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ontario, Canada, and predicted habitat suitability for the emerging Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans.

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungi Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, is associated with massive amphibian mortality events worldwide and with some species’ extinctions. Previous ecological niche models suggest that B. dendrobatidis is not well‐suited to northern, temperate climates, but these predictions have often relied on datasets in which northern latitudes are underrepresented. Recent northern detections of B. dendrobatidis suggest that these models may have underestimated the suitability of higher latitudes for this fungus. We used qPCR to test for B. dendrobatidis in 1,041 non‐invasive epithelial swab samples from 18 species of amphibians collected across 735,345 km2 in Ontario and Akimiski Island (Nunavut), Canada. We detected the pathogen in 113 samples (10.9%) from 11 species. Only one specimen exhibited potential clinical signs of disease. We used these data to produce six Species Distribution Models of B. dendrobatidis, which classified half of the study area as potential habitat for the fungus. We also tested each sample for B. salamandrivorans, an emerging pathogen that is causing alarming declines in European salamanders, but is not yet detected in North America. We did not detect B. salamandrivorans in any of the samples, providing a baseline for future surveillance. We assessed the potential risk of future introduction by comparing salamander richness to temperature‐dependent mortality, predicted by a previous exposure study. Areas with the highest species diversity and predicted mortality risk extended 60,530 km2 across southern Ontario, highlighting the potential threat B. salamandrivorans poses to northern Nearctic amphibians. Preventing initial introduction will require coordinated, transboundary regulation of trade in amphibians (including frogs that can carry and disperse B. salamandrivorans), and surveillance of the pathways of introduction (e.g., water and wildlife). Our results can inform surveillance for both pathogens and efforts to mitigate the spread of chytridiomycosis through wild populations.

Assessing potential habitat suitability of parasitic plant: A case study of Rafflesia arnoldii and its host plants

Rafflesia are obligate endo-holoparasitic plants with the genus Tetrastigma playing an important role as their host plants. Rafflesia arnoldii is one of Indonesian endemic plants that grows in Sumatra island. This island is also known to have eleven species of Tetrastigma . Three of them are known as host plants of R. arnoldii , namely Tetrastigma curtisii, T. pedunculare and T. leucostaphylum . Unfortunately, it is not possible to survey the entire native distribution range of R. arnoldii and its host plants due to practical constraints. Species Distribution Modeling using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is considered to be an alternative way to understand the potential regions that are suitable for a species. Predicting habitat suitability of a parasitic plant through predicting its host plant distribution may be a useful approach. The model prediction from MaxEnt for all host species has an AUC value more than 0.70, indicating the model adequately classified the occurrence records of R. arnoldii and its host plants. Suitable habitats for R. arnoldii were predicted to occur along the Bukit Barisan Mountain range from Lampung to Aceh, mostly in Lampung, Bengkulu, West Sumatra and Aceh. However, the suitable habitats of R. arnoldii estimated from host plants were predicted to occur predominately in Lampung, Bengkulu, West Sumatra, North Sumatra and Aceh. The important environmental variables affecting the occurrence of R. arnoldii and its host plants are mean temperature, slope, elevation, soil organic carbon and soil type. Rafflesia species can be found in various soil types, but mostly in Humic Andosols, Humic Acrisols, Orthic Acrosols, Dystric Fluvisols, Dystric Cambisols and Eutric Fluvisols based on the actual data points and predicted habitats. The suitable habitats of R. arnoldii based on its host plants were predicted to be mostly outside conservation areas, but suitable habitats were predicted inside approximately 46 conservation areas. The findings of this study may be used by the Government of Republic Indonesia, c.q. Ministry of Environment and Foresty for establishing protected areas and conservation-based management improvement and could also help inform the R. arnoldii listing status in IUCN red list category in the future.

Genomics and ecological modelling clarify species integrity in a confusing group of butterflies.

Recent advances in both genomics and ecological modelling present new, multidisciplinary opportunities for resolving species boundaries and understanding the mechanisms that maintain their integrity in regions of contact. Here, we use a combination of high-throughput DNA sequencing and ecological niche modelling to resolve species boundaries and niche divergence within the Speyeria atlantis-hesperis (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) complex, a confusing group of North American butterflies. This complex is notorious for its muddled species delimitations, morphological ambiguity, and extensive mitonuclear discordance. Our admixture and multispecies coalescent-based analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms identified substantial divergences between S. atlantis and S. hesperis in areas of contact, as well as between distinct northern and southern lineages within S. hesperis. Our results also provide evidence of past introgression relating to another species, S. zerene, which previous work has shown to be more distantly related to the S. atlantis-hesperis complex. We then used ecological models to predict habitat suitability for each of the three recovered genomic lineages in the S. atlantis-hesperis complex and assessed their pairwise niche divergence. These analyses resolved that these three lineages are significantly diverged in their respective niches and are not separated by discontinuities in suitable habitat that might present barriers to gene flow. We therefore infer that ecologically-mediated selection resulting in disparate habitat associations is a principal mechanism reinforcing their genomic integrity. Overall, our results unambiguously support significant evolutionary and ecological divergence between the northern and southern lineages of S. hesperis, sufficient to recognize the southern evolutionary lineage as a distinct species, called S. nausicaa based on taxonomic priority.

Identifying core habitats and corridors of a near threatened carnivore, striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) in southwestern Iran

Conservation of large carnivores requires preservation of extensive core habitats and linkages among them. The goal of this study was to identify core habitats and corridors by predicting habitat suitability (an ensemble approach), and calculating resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path modeling for a relatively unknown carnivore, the striped hyaena in Khuzestan area in southwestern Iran. We used the procedure of spatial randomization test to evaluate the coincidence of striped hyaena road crossing with the predicted corridors. The results revealed that elevation, distance to conservation areas, categorical climate and grasslands density were the most influential variables for predicting the occurrence of the striped hyaena in the study area. In the estimated dispersal distance of 70 km, four core habitats were identified. The largest core habitat was located in the northeast of the study area with the highest connectivity contribution. Only about 12% and 1.5% of core habitats and corridors were protected by conservation areas, respectively. Predicted corridors, crossed by roads represented a high risk for striped hyaenas. Adaptive management plan throughout the landscape (conservation of core habitats and corridors, and reducing species mortality on the roads) must be considered by wildlife managers in Iran.

Citizen science reveals current distribution, predicted habitat suitability and resource requirements of the introduced African Carder Bee Pseudoanthidium (Immanthidium) repetitum in Australia

The introduction of non-native bee species is a major driver of ecosystem change resulting in the spread of non-native weeds, alterations to plant-pollinator interactions and competition with native species for food and nesting resources. Our lack of ecological information for many non-native organisms hinders our ability to understand the impacts of species introductions. This is often compounded by the Wallacean Shortfall—a lack of adequate knowledge of a species’ distribution in geographic space. In Australia, the African carder bee (Pseudoanthidium (Immanthidium) repetitum) was first observed in 2000 and has since become one of the most common bees in some regions. Despite its rapid population increase and range expansion, little is known about the ecology or distribution of P. repetitum. In this study, we determine the flower preferences, current distribution and predicted areas at risk of future invasion of P. repetitum using opportunistic data collected from citizen science websites, social media and museum records. We found that the current distribution of P. repetitum in Australia encompasses approximately 332,000 km2 concentrated along the eastern coast. We found considerable suitable habitat outside the current distribution including biodiversity hotspots and world heritage listed natural areas. Pseudoanthidium repetitum foraged on a wide range of plants from many families and can thus be classified as a generalist forager (polylectic). Our results suggest that P. repetitum is well suited for continued expansion in coastal Australia. Our results demonstrate the effective application of opportunistic data in overcoming knowledge gaps in species ecology and modelling of introduced species distribution.

Predicting habitat suitability and connectivity for management and conservation of urban wildlife: A real‐time web application for grassland water voles

Abstract Natural habitats in urban areas provide benefits for both humans and biodiversity. However, to achieve biodiversity gains, we require new techniques to determine habitat suitability and ecological connectivity that will inform urban planning and development. Using an example of an urban population of water voles Arvicola amphibius, we developed a habitat suitability model and a resistance‐surface‐based model of landscape connectivity to identify potential connectivity between areas of suitable habitat. We then updated the environmental variables according to new urban development plans and used our models to generate spatially explicit predictions of both habitat suitability and connectivity. To make models accessible to urban and conservation planners, we developed an interactive mapping tool that provided users with a graphical user interface (GUI) to inform conservation planning for this species. The model found that habitat suitability for water voles was related to the proportion and distance from key environmental variables, such as built‐up areas and urban green spaces, while the connectivity model identified important corridors connecting areas of potential distribution for this species. Future development plans altered the potential spatial distribution of the water vole population, reducing the extent of suitable habitat in some core areas. The interactive mapping tool made available suitable habitat and connectivity maps for conservation managers to assess new planning applications and for the development of a conservation action plan for water voles. Synthesis and applications. We believe this approach provides a framework for future development of nature conservation tools that can be used by planners to inform ecological decision‐making, increase biodiversity and reduce human–wildlife conflict in urban environments.