Predictor Of Heart Failure Events Research Articles

Incidence and predictors of heart failure events following cardiac surgery in patients with atrial fibrillation - insights from the LAAOS-III trial

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common comorbidity in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and further increases the risk of incident heart failure (HF). However, only limited data exist on HF events following surgery in patients with AF. Methods The Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Study (LAAOS) III was a randomized trial evaluating concomitant left atrial appendage occlusion in patients with AF undergoing cardiac surgery. In this secondary analysis, we aimed to identify independent predictors of the composite outcome of HF hospitalization or HF-related death following discharge, using a multivariable Cox model – incorporating sex, age (≥65 vs <65 years), systolic blood pressure (≤140 vs >140 mmHg), body mass index (BMI; <25 vs 25-29.9 vs ≥30 kg/m2), diabetes mellitus (DM), prior HF diagnosis, prior stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart valve surgery, AF history duration, rhythm on discharge electrocardiogram, and trial allocation. Supplementary analyses were undertaken to further assess the continuous variables using cubic spline regression. Results Of 4770 patients enrolled, in-hospital death occurred in 201 (4.2%) and complete discharge data were available for 4564 (95.7%). During a median follow up of 3.9 years, 533 (11.7%) of 4564 patients were hospitalized for HF. In total, 873 (19.1%) died after discharge, including 95 HF-related deaths. The composite outcome of HF hospitalization or HF-related death occurred at an annualized event rate of 3.31%/year [95% confidence interval: 3.04-3.60]. The independent risk factors included age (event rate of 3.64%/year vs 2.03%/year for ≥65 vs <65 years; hazard ratio (HR) 1.71 [1.32-2.21]), DM (4.71%/year vs 2.71%/year for with vs without DM; HR 1.59 [1.34-1.90]), prior HF diagnosis (4.27%/year vs 2.17%/year for with vs without HF; HR 2.00 [1.66-2.41]), IHD (3.63%/year vs 2.85%/year for with vs without IHD; HR 1.26 [1.03-1.54]), AF history duration (3.81%/year vs 2.89%/year for >2 vs <0.5 years; HR 1.23 [1.01-1.50]), and AF rhythm at discharge (3.87%/year vs 2.68%/year for AF vs non-AF rhythm; HR 1.31 [1.09-1.58]). The supplementary spline analyses further revealed a positive correlation between BMI and the risk of the composite outcome (p-value 0.042). Conclusions In patients with AF undergoing cardiac surgery, post-discharge HF hospitalization and HF-related death occurred at a rate of 3.31% per year. Our study identified several significant risk factors including advanced age, higher BMI, DM, prior HF diagnosis, IHD, AF history >2 years, and AF rhythm at discharge.The associations of HF with age and BMI

Incremental value of diastolic wall strain in predicting heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Diastolic wall strain (DWS), an echocardiographic index based on linear elasticity theory, has been identified as a predictor of heart failure (HF) in patients with sinus rhythm. However, its effectiveness in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients remains uncertain. This study aims to assess DWS as a predictor of HF in AF patients with preserved ejection fraction. We analysed a prospective database of AF patients undergoing transthoracic echocardiography. AF patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (< 50%), posterior wall motion abnormality, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, valvular heart disease, pericardial disease, congenital heart disease, or history of pacemaker/implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation or cardiac surgery were excluded. The study followed patients until HF development, death, or last visit. Follow-up for patients who underwent catheter ablation was censored on the date of their procedure. HF was ascertained based on the Framingham criteria. DWS was calculated using a validated formula: DWS = (PWs -PWd)/PWs, where PWs is the posterior wall thickness at end-systole and PWd is the posterior wall thickness at end-diastole. Among 411 study patients (mean age 69.6 years, 66% men), 20 (5%) was underwent catheter ablation and 57 (14%) developed HF during a mean follow-up of 82 months. Cox-proportional hazards demonstrated that low DWS (≤ 0.33) significantly predicted HF events (hazard ratio [HR] 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]) 1.81-5.94, P < 0.0001), independent of age (per 10 years; HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.35-2.93, P < 0.001), indexed left ventricular mass (per 10g/m2; HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.27, P < 0.01), and indexed left atrial volume (per 10 mL/m2; HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.24, P < 0.01). Additionally, global log-likelihood ratio chi-square statistics indicated that DWS incrementally predicts HF development beyond age, indexed left ventricular mass, and left atrial volume (P < 0.001).

Predictive value of a comprehensive atrial assessment with cardiac magnetic resonance in non-ischemic cardiomyopathy: keep it simple.

Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) can provide a multi-parametric evaluation of left atrial (LA) size and function. A complete CMR-based LA assessment might improve the risk stratification of patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). We performed a comprehensive CMR-based evaluation of LA size and function, in order to assess the prognostic impact of specific LA parameters in DCM. Secondary analysis of a prospective registry (UHSM-CMR study, NCT02326324) including 648 consecutive patients with DCM and CMR evaluation of LA area and LA length. Of these, 456 had complete LA assessment covering reservoir, conduit and booster pump function and including LA reservoir strain evaluated with feature tracking. The heart failure (HF) endpoint included HF hospitalizations, HF death and heart transplant. The arrhythmic endpoint included ventricular arrhythmias (VA) (sustained or treated by implantable defibrillator) and sudden death (SD). At median follow-up of 23 months, 34 patients reached the HF endpoint; in a multivariable model including NYHA class and LVEF, LA length had incremental predictive value. LA length ≥ 69mm was the best cut-off to predict HF events (adjusted HR 2.3, p = 0.03). Among the 456 patients with comprehensive LA assessment, only LA length was independently associated with the HF endpoint after adjusting for LVEF and NYHA class. By contrast, no LA parameter independently predicted the arrhythmic risk. In DCM patients, LA length is an independent predictor of HF events, showing stronger association than other more complex parameters of LA function. No atrial parameter predicts the risk of VA and SD.

Validation of a new CPET multivariable score to predict cardiovascular events in heart failure patients

Abstract Introduction Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is recommended in patients with heart failure (HF) to optimize exercise prescription and as part of the evaluation for heart transplantation. Recently, a new multivariable score (MVS) was proposed as a powerful method to predict HF events with an optimal cut-off value of 120. Purpose We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of this tool in patients with HF. Methods We conducted a single-centre study assessing consecutive patients with HF who underwent CPET from 2013 to 2017. Classic and recently proposed variables were collected, including peak O2 uptake (pVO2), minute ventilation–CO2 production (VE/VCO2 slope), partial pressure of end-tidal CO2 at the anaerobic threshold (PETCO2L), circulatory power (CP=pVO2 x peak SBP), and ventilatory power (VP=peak SBP/(VE/VCO2) slope). The score was calculated as follows: (pVO2 × 2.194) + (PETCO2L × 1.545) + (LVEF × 1.134) + (HR × 1.055; 0 if AF, 1 if sinus rhythm). The primary outcome was a composite of HF hospitalization, heart transplant, and all-cause mortality. Results We included 212 patients 76.9% male and with a mean age of 55.4±10.9 years-old. The most frequent aetiology was dilated cardiomyopathy (43.9%) followed by ischaemic heart disease (38.7%). Accordingly, the mean left ventricle ejection fraction was 29±13%. Additionally, 39.8% had atrial fibrillation. The most used exercise protocol was the modified Naughton (76.6%). Mean pVO2 was 16.7±5.9mL O2·kg−1·min−1, median VE/VCO2 slope was 37.5 [32.7-44.3], and PETCO2L 33.5±5.2mmHg. Mean VP was 3.46±1.31mmHg while the median CP was 1927 [1427-2697]mmHg·min/mL/kg. The mean MVS was 116.2±23.1. Despite weak, there were significant positive correlations between the MVS and both VP (r=0.59, p&amp;lt;0.01) and CP (rs=0.64, p&amp;lt;0.01). After a median follow-up of 71 [49-81] months, the primary outcome occurred in 66.0% of patients (rehospitalization, heart transplant, and all-cause death occurred in 56.1%, 25.9%, and 32.5%, respectively). The new CPET MVS was associated with the primary outcome (p&amp;lt;0.01). Additionally, patients with MVS &amp;lt;120 had a higher rate of the primary outcome (83.2% vs. 39.1%, p&amp;lt;0.01). Kaplan-Meier estimates of tthe primary outcome according to the optimal cut-off value of 120 are shown in Figure 1A. Receiver operating characteristic curve revealed that the MVS has higher discriminative power for the primary endpoint (AUC 0.80, p&amp;lt;0.01) compared to pVVO2, VP, and CP (Figure 1B). Conclusion The novel multivariable score is associated with the composite of HF hospitalization, heart transplant, and all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure, enhancing the role of CPET in risk stratification.

The Use of the Multisensor HeartLogic Algorithm for Heart Failure Remote Monitoring in Patients With Left Ventricular Assist Devices.

The Use of the Multisensor HeartLogic Algorithm for Heart Failure Remote Monitoring in Patients With Left Ventricular Assist Devices.

H2ARDD score as a feasible predictor of heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation: a validation study.

It was reported that the H2ARDD score (organic heart diseases = 2 points, anemia = 1 point, renal dysfunction = 1 point, diabetes = 1 point, and diuretic use = 1point; range 0 to 6 points) may help identify patients with AF at high risk for HF events. However, this score has not been externally validated. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of H2ARDD score in predicting HF events in patients with AF. We used a prospective database of patients with AF, and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of HF events. The outcome of interest was defined as HF events including new-onset HF and death from HF. Of 562 AF patients, 518 (mean 69.7 ± 9.7years-old, 64.9% men) met study criteria, and 84 (16.2%) developed HF events during a mean follow-up of 54 ± 42months. In multivariable analyses, H2ARDD score was shown as a significant predictor for HF events [hazard ratio (HR): 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-1.79], independent of age (per 10years, HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03-1.78). In the Kaplan-Meier analyses stratified by H2ARDD score categories (0-2, 3-4, 5-6), the patients with higher H2ARDD scores had significantly worse HF event-free survival (log-rank P < 0.0001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.77, P < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity at a cut-off score of ≥ 3 were 60% and 71%, respectively. In conclusion, the H2ARDD score may be feasible for HF risk stratification in patients with AF.

The Role of Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin and N-Terminal Pro B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in the Prediction of Heart Failure in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

BACKGROUND: Heart failure, where the heart cannot pump blood effectively, significantly affects patient quality of life and impacts national health-care services. Acute coronary syndrome is a common underlying cause of acute heart failure. Neutrophil gelatinase-binding lipocalin (NGAL) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are biomarkers released during myocardial injury. Thus, the measured levels of these chemicals may be associated with heart failure events in patients with acute coronary syndrome. AIM: The present study determined the serum levels and measured increases in NGAL and NT-proBNP, as well as recorded heart failure events in patients with acute coronary syndrome in Vietnam. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional method was used to recruit 58 patients with acute coronary syndrome and assess the degree to which the two markers could predict ejection fraction (EF). RESULTS: The median values of NGAL and NT-proBNP concentrations in the group with EF ≥40% (7.14 ng/mL and 952.00 pg/mL) were significantly lower than those with EF &lt;40% (166.10 ng/mL and 27,498.00 pg/mL). NGAL was used to predict heart failure events at a threshold of 94.86 ng/mL with a sensitivity of 83.3%, a specificity of 90.4%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. Similarly, NT-proBNP predicted heart failure events at a threshold of 8660.5 pg/mL with a sensitivity of 83.3%, a specificity of 84.6%, and an AUC of 0.79. CONCLUSIONS: Serum NGAL and NT-proBNP levels can be used as reliable biomarkers for predicting heart failure events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Clinical Features of Heart Failure in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in a Regional Japanese Cohort - Results From the Kochi RYOMA Study.

The clinical features of heart failure (HF) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in Japan have not been fully elucidated.Methods and Results: In 293 patients with HCM (median age at registration, 65 (57-72) years) in a prospective cardiomyopathy registration network in Kochi Prefecture (Kochi RYOMA study), HF events (HF death or hospitalization for HF) occurred in 35 patients (11.9%) (median age, 76 (69-80) years), including 11 HF deaths during a median follow-up of 6.1 years. The 5-year HF events rate was 9.6%. Atrial fibrillation, low percentage of fractional shortening, and high B-type natriuretic peptide level at registration were predictors of HF events. The combination of these 3 factors had a relatively high positive predictive value (55%) for HF events and none of them had a high negative predictive value (99%). There were 4 types of HF profile: left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (40%), severe LV diastolic dysfunction (34%), LV outflow tract obstruction (LVOTO) (20%), and primary mitral regurgitation (MR) (6%). HF deaths occurred in patients with LV systolic dysfunction or LV diastolic dysfunction, but none of patients with LVOTO or primary MR due to additional invasive therapies. In a Japanese HCM cohort, HF was an important complication, requiring careful follow-up and appropriate treatment.

A new cardiopulmonary exercise testing score for predicting heart failure events

Abstract Background Cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) provides several variables (V) that are strong predictors of events in patients (pts) with heart failure (HF). Purpose Our aim was to develop and evaluate the predictive power (PP) of a CPET-based score, comparing to that of the Heart Failure Survival Score – HFSS. Methods Retrospective evaluation of adult pts with HF submitted to CPET in a tertiary center. Pts were followed up for at least 1 year for the primary endpoint of cardiac death and urgent heart transplantation/ ventricular assist device implantation (MTV). The PP of several CPET V's was assessed using ROC curve analysis, which was used to define optimal threshold values for each V. A multiple regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic predictors and to determine the regression coefficient (β) for the Vs included in the model, each expressed dichotomously using the threshold value. According to β, a weight was assigned to each V and summed to calculate the composite score. ROC curves were compared using the Hanley and McNeil test. Results CPET was performed in 487 HF pts, with a mean age of 56±13 years, 79% were male. 46% of pts were of ischemic etiology, with a mean LVEF of 30±8%, a mean HFSS of 8.6±1.1 and a mean BNP value of 509±668pg/ml. The mortality rate during a mean follow-up of 21 months, was 19% (93pts) with 23 pts (5%) undergoing HT. The primary endpoint was reached by 55 (11%) pts. The variables with higher predictive power were OUES (AUC 0.796), ventilatory power (AUC 0.790), the partial pressure of end-tidal CO2 at the anaerobic threshold (PETCO2L – AUC of 0.787), the pVO2 (AUC 0.767) and heart rhythm (HR) during the test (AUC – 0.640). LVEF also presented a high predictive power with AUC of 0.755. The multivariate analysis revealed that pVO2, PETCO2L, AF, and LVEF were independent prognostic predictors. According to the β of these Vs, the equation was calculated as follows: (pVO2 × 2.194) + (PETCO2L × 1.545) + (LVEF × 1.134) + (HR × 1.055; 0 if AF, 1 if sinus rhythm). The score presented a high PP with an AUC of 0.866. A cut-off of 120 had an 83.6% sensitivity and a 75% specificity for MTV, and pts with a score value of &amp;lt;120 had a markedly lower rate of MTV (log-rank p&amp;lt;0.001). When compared to HFSS, our score presented a higher PP (0.866 vs 0.774, p=0.011). Conclusion A multivariable score based on readily available CPET Vs provides a simple, integrated and powerful method to predict HF events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Value and forecast heart failure of seroconcenttrations of NGAL and NT-proBNP in patients with acute coronary syndrome at Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital

Background: Acute coronary syndrome is a serious, emergency coronary artery disease event. Levels of neutrophil gelatinase-binding lipocalin (NGAL), a urinary sodium-reducing peptide (NT-proBNP) in the blood released during myocardial injury, thus correlate with heart failure events in patients with the acute coronary syndrome. Objectives: To determine the value of serum NGAL and NT-proBNP levels and predictability of heart failure events in patients with the acute coronary syndrome at Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital in 2021-2022. Materials and methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted on 58 patients were diagnosed with acute coronary syndrome at the Department of Interventional Cardiology – Neurology, Can Tho University of Medicine and Pharmacy Hospital. Results: Mean values of NGAL was 56.5±15.7ng/mL and NT-proBNP was 5303.4±1172pg/mL. The value of NGAL concentration in predicting heart failure events, at the cut-off point of 130.35ng/mL had a sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 94.1%, AUC of 0.96; NT-proBNP value in predicting heart failure events at the cut- off point 10754.5pg/mL had sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 96.1%, AUC of 0.97. Conclusion: Quantification of serum NGAL and NT-proBNP help prognostic heart failure events in patients with the acute coronary syndrome.

Predictors of heart failure events detected by a multisensor implantable defibrillator algorithm

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular comorbidities are common in heart failure (HF) patients and determine disease severity and prognosis. Select modern implantable defibrillators (ICDs) are equipped with multisensor algorithms for HF monitoring. The HeartLogic index combines multiple ICD-based sensor data (heart rate, heart sounds, thoracic impedance, respiration, activity), and the associated alert has proved to be a sensitive and timely predictor of impending HF decompensation in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) patients. Purpose This analysis aims to investigate the performance of the algorithm in non-CRT patients, as well as in relation to the presence of comorbidities. Methods The HeartLogic feature was activated in 568 ICD patients (410 with CRT) from 26 centers. The median follow-up was 25 months [25th–75th percentile: 15-35]. Results We recorded 1200 HeartLogic alerts (0.71 alerts per patient-year) in 370 patients. Among patient characteristics, atrial fibrillation (AF) at implantation (HR: 1.62, 95%CI: 1.27-2.07, p&amp;lt;0.001) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (HR: 1.53, 95%CI: 1.21-1.93, p&amp;lt;0.001) independently predicted alerts. HeartLogic alerts were not associated with CRT vs. non-CRT device implantation (HR: 1.03, 95%CI: 0.82-1.30, p=0.775). Comparing the combined index and all physiologic parameters during clinically stable periods we did not notice differences between CRT and non-CRT patients. Thoracic impedance was significantly lower in CKD than non-CKD patients. (46±11ohm versus 49±10ohm; p=0.047). We found a higher S3 amplitude (0.9±0.3mG versus 0.8±0.2mG; p=0.005) and nocturnal heart rate (72±9bpm versus 66±7bpm; p&amp;lt;0.001), and lower S1 amplitude (2.0±0.8mG versus 2.4±0.9mG; p&amp;lt;0.001) in AF patients vs non-AF. These differences persisted at the time of alerts (all p&amp;lt;0.05). In the overall population, and in patients stratified by device type, CKD and AF, we measured significant changes of all contributing sensors (paired t-test; p&amp;lt;0.05) from clinically stable periods to the time of alert. Conclusions The burden of HeartLogic alerts appears similar between CRT and non-CRT patients, while patients with AF and CKD seem more exposed to alerts. ICD-measured thoracic impedance is sensitive to the fluid overload that characterizes kidney disease, as well as the first and third heart sound amplitudes seem sensitive to the reduced ventricular efficiency during AF. Nonetheless, ICD sensors seem to equally contribute to the HeartLogic alerts in all patient subgroups.

Clinical Prediction of Heart Failure in Hemodialysis Patients: Based on the Extreme Gradient Boosting Method.

Background: Heart failure (HF) is the main cause of mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. However, it is still a challenge for the prediction of HF in HD patients. Therefore, we aimed to establish and validate a prediction model to predict HF events in HD patients. Methods: A total of 355 maintenance HD patients from two hospitals were included in this retrospective study. A total of 21 variables, including traditional demographic characteristics, medical history, and blood biochemical indicators, were used. Two classification models were established based on the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and traditional linear logistic regression. The performance of the two models was evaluated based on calibration curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Feature importance and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) were used to recognize risk factors from the variables. The Kaplan–Meier curve of each risk factor was constructed and compared with the log-rank test. Results: Compared with the traditional linear logistic regression, the XGBoost model had better performance in accuracy (78.5 vs. 74.8%), sensitivity (79.6 vs. 75.6%), specificity (78.1 vs. 74.4%), and AUC (0.814 vs. 0.722). The feature importance and SHAP value of XGBoost indicated that age, hypertension, platelet count (PLT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and white blood cell count (WBC) were risk factors of HF. These results were further confirmed by Kaplan–Meier curves. Conclusions: The HF prediction model based on XGBoost had a satisfactory performance in predicting HF events, which could prove to be a useful tool for the early prediction of HF in HD.

Left Atrial Reservoir Strain-Based Left Ventricular Diastolic Function Grading and Incident Heart Failure in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

The echocardiographic assessment of left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is complex and not well-established. We investigated whether the left atrial reservoir strain (LARS) could be used to categorize LVDD and whether this grading is predictive of heart failure (HF) events in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A total of 414 patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (aged 58.3±12.8 years; 65.7% male) were categorized using LARS-defined LVDD (LARS-DD) grades: ≥35% (grade 0), ≥24% to <35%, ≥19% to <24%, and <19% (grade 3). Patients were followed for a median of 6.9 years to assess hospitalization for HF or HF-related death. An increase in LARS-DD grade was associated with worse conventional echocardiographic parameters of LVDD, such as lower e', higher E/e' ratio, greater maximum tricuspid regurgitation velocity, and restrictive mitral inflow pattern. Higher LARS-DD grade was also associated with parameters reflecting increased LV filling pressure, such as greater LV wall thickness, greater extent of fibrosis, obstructive physiology, and decreased LV longitudinal strain. Furthermore, higher LARS-DD grade was associated with worse HF-free survival (log-rank P<0.001). Patients with LARS-DD grades 0, 1, 2, and 3 showed 10-year HF-free survival of 100%, 91.6%, 84.1%, and 67.5%, respectively. LARS-DD grade was an independent predictor of HF events after adjusting for clinical and echocardiographic variables (hazard ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.03-2.28], per 1-grade increase). The LARS-DD grade also had incremental prognostic value for incident HF events over the traditional echocardiographic LVDD parameters and grading system. The prognostic value of advanced LARS-DD grade was consistent in sensitivity analyses and various patient subgroups. LARS can be used as a simple single or supplemental index to categorize LV diastolic function and predict HF events in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Pectoralis major muscle quantification by cardiac MRI is a strong predictor of major events in HF.

Clinical overt cardiac cachexia is a late ominous sign in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). The main goal of this study was to assess the feasibility and prognostic significance of muscle mass quantification by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in HF with reduced LVEF. HF patients with LVEF < 40% (HFrEF) referred for CMR were retrospectively identified in asingle center. Key exclusion criteria were primary muscle disease, known infiltrative myocardial disease and intracardiac devices. Pectoralis majormuscles were measured on standard axial images at the level of the 3rd rib anteriorly. Time to all-cause death or HF hospitalization was the primary endpoint. A total of 298 HF patients were included (mean age 64 ± 12years; 76% male; mean LVEF 30 ± 8%).During a median follow-up of 22months (IQR: 12-33), 67 (22.5%) patients met the primary endpoint (33 died and 45had at least 1 HF hospitalization). In multivariate analysis, LVEF [Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.950; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.917-0.983; p = 0.003), NYHA class I-II vs III-IV (HR: 0.480; CI: 0.272-0.842; p = 0.010), creatinine (HR: 2.653; CI: 1.548-4.545; p < 0.001) and pectoralis major area (HR: 0.873; 95% CI: 0.821-0.929; p < 0.001) were independent predictors of the primary endpoint, when adjusted for gender and NT-pro-BNP levels. Pectoralis majorsize measured by CMR in HFrEF was independently associated with a higher risk of death or HF hospitalization. Further studies to establish appropriate age and gender-adjusted cut-offs of muscle areas are needed to identify high-risk subgroups.

External validation of H2ARDD score for the prediction of heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation

Abstract Background Heart failure is an important consequence in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) which is associated with worse prognosis. The H2ARDD score, calculated from 5 clinical risk factors, was reported as a predictor of heart failure events in patients with AF. However, this score has not been externally validated. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate and validate the usefulness of the H2ARDD score for the prediction of heart failure events in AF patients. Methods We used prospective data of patients with AF followed up from 2007 to 2017 in our institute. Patients with active cancer were excluded according to the previous report. H2ARDD score was calculated as follows; history of heart disease=2 points, anemia=1 point, renal dysfunction=1 point, diabetes =1 point, diuretic use=1 point (range from 0 to 6 points). Outcome of interest was defined as heart failure events including new-onset heart failure and death with heart failure. Heart failure was ascertained based on the Framingham criteria. Univariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazards model were used to assess the risk of heart failure events. Heart failure events-free survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier methods, and the predictive accuracy of the H2ARDD score for the prediction of heart failure events was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Of 562 AF patients, 522 (age 69±10 year–old, 64.9%men) met study criteria. Patients who had a history of heart disease was 185 (35%), diabetes mellitus was 135 (26%), anemia was 54 (10%), renal dysfunction was 221 (43%), and diuretic use was 193 (37%). The mean H2ARDD score was 1.88±1.57. Of all study patients, 84 (16.2%) developed heart failure events during a mean follow–up of 54±42 months. Patients who developed heart failure events in 1 year was 24 (4.6%). In multivariable Cox–proportional hazards model, H2ARDD score was shown as an significant predictor for heart failure events (hazard ratio: 1.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.36 - 1.79, P&amp;lt;0.0001), independently of age (per 10 years, hazard ratio: 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.03 – 1.78, P&amp;lt;0.05). In the Kaplan–Meier analyses stratified by H2ARDD score (0–1, 2–3, 4–6), patients who had a higher H2ARDD sore had significantly worse heart failure event-free survival (log-rank P&amp;lt;0.0001) (Figure 1). The area under the ROC curve for the prediction of heart failure events in 1-year was 0.812 (95% confidence interval: 0.737 – 0.887, P&amp;lt;0.0001), and the best cut-off value was ≥4 points (sensitivity: 67%, specificity: 83%) (Figure 2). Conclusion H2ARDD score was demonstrated as a significant independent predictor for the prediction of heart failure events, with high predictive accuracy. H2ARDD score may be useful for heart failure risk stratification of AF patients. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1Figure 2

Left Atrioventricular Coupling Index to Predict Incident Heart Failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Background: Although left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic value as predictors of heart failure (HF), the close physiological relationship between the LA and LV suggest that the assessment of LA/LV coupling could better reflect left atrioventricular dysfunction and be a better predictor of HF.Aim: We investigated the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI), measured by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), as well as change in LACI to predict incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).Materials and Methods: In the MESA, 2,250 study participants, free of clinically recognized HF and cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, had LACI assessed by CMR imaging at baseline (Exam 1, 2000–2002), and 10 years later (Exam 5, 2010–2012). Left atrioventricular coupling index was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and average annualized change in LACI (ΔLACI) with incident HF after adjustment for traditional MESA-HF risk factors. The incremental risk prediction was calculated using C-statistic, categorical net reclassification index (NRI) and integrative discrimination index (IDI).Results: Among the 2,250 participants (mean age 59.3 ± 9.3 years and 47.6% male participants), 50 incident HF events occurred over 6.8 ± 1.3 years after the second CMR exam. After adjustment, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with HF (adjusted HR 1.44, 95% CI [1.25–1.66] and adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI [1.30–1.85], respectively; both p < 0.0001). Adjusted models for LACI showed significant improvement in model discrimination and reclassification compared to currently used HF risk score model for predicting HF incidence (C-statistic: 0.81 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.411; IDI = 0.043). After adjustment, ΔLACI showed also significant improvement in model discrimination compared to the multivariable model with traditional MESA-HF risk factors for predicting incident HF (C-statistic: 0.82 vs. 0.77; NRI = 0.491; IDI = 0.058).Conclusions: In a multi-ethnic population, atrioventricular coupling (LACI), and coupling change (ΔLACI) are independently associated with incident HF. Both have incremental prognostic value for predicting HF events over traditional HF risk factors.

Clinical utility of CorVue intrathoracic impedance alert with device-measured physical activity in predicting heart failure events.

Cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) offer heart failure (HF) diagnostic information, including intrathoracic impedance (ITI) or physical activity (PA). However, few studies have evaluated the utility of these parameters measured by CIEDs with CorVue algorithm. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between ITI alerts triggered by the CorVue algorithm and HF development. We also examined the association between device-measured PA and ITI alerts associated with HF development. We retrospectively studied consecutive patients with CIEDs equipped with CorVue algorithm, which were implanted between June 1, 2011 and August 31, 2019. These patients were divided into two groups: patients with decreased ITI followed by the ITI alerts (ITI alert group) and those without the alerts (non-ITI alert group). There were 35 and 14 patients in the ITI and non-ITI alert groups, respectively. A total of 96 ITI alerts were observed. ITI alerts associated with HF development were observed in 21% (20/96); whereas, ITI alerts not associated with HF development were observed in 79% (76/96). Accurate device-measured PA was confirmed in 76 ITI alerts, which consisted of 30 alerts with lower PA and 46 alerts without lower PA. ITI alerts associated with HF development were observed in 30% (9/30) of the alerts with lower PA, whereas observed only in 6.5% (3/46) of the alerts without lower PA. In conclusion, the CorVue ITI alerts indicated a high false-positive rate. However, device-measured PA may be useful to determine whether ITI alerts are associated with HF development or not, which was attributed to the high negative predictive value.

Left atrial strain and outcome in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Left atrial (LA) function is impaired in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, the association between LA longitudinal strain and heart failure (HF) events in patients with HFpEF is still unknown. We evaluated whether LA strain measurements would be useful to predict hospitalizations for worsening HF in this study. Methods This study included 121 patients (Male 73, Female 48) with HFpEF who had echocardiogram at our institute (Age = 76 ± 14y, Left ventricular ejection fraction; LVEF = 63 ± 8%). Patients with atrial fibrillation were excluded. LA longitudinal strain was measured by speckle-tracking echocardiography, using TOMTEC imaging system. The endpoints were hospitalizations for worsening HF. Results During follow-up period of 319 ± 269 days, 33 patients (27%) experienced hospitalizations for worsening HF. LA strain was markedly lower in patients with HF events at 11.3 ± 5.6, whereas LA strain was higher at 20.3 ± 10.1 in patients without HF events. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant separation of survival curves stratified by median value of LA strain (Figure). Conclusions LA dysfunction in HFpEF is associated with a higher risk of HF hospitalization, and LA strain measurements would be useful to predict HF events. Abstract Figure

Wireless Hemodynamic Monitoring in Patients with Heart Failure.

Purpose of ReviewWireless hemodynamic monitoring in heart failure patients allows for volume assessment without the need for physical exam. Data obtained from these devices is used to assist patient management and avoid heart failure hospitalizations. In this review, we outline the various devices, mechanisms they utilize, and effects on heart failure patients.Recent FindingsNew applications of these devices to specific populations may expand the pool of patients that may benefit. In the COVID-19 pandemic with a growing emphasis on virtual visits, remote monitoring can add vital ancillary data.SummaryWireless hemodynamic monitoring with a pulmonary artery pressure sensor is a highly effective and safe method to assess for worsening intracardiac pressures that may predict heart failure events, giving lead time that is valuable to keep patients optimized. Implantation of this device has been found to improve outcomes in heart failure patients regardless of preserved or reduced ejection fraction.

Abstract 16148: Serum Gdf-15 Identifies Patients at Risk for Acute Heart Failure but Not Ventricular Arrhythmias and Sudden Death

Introduction: GDF-15 (Growth Differentiation Factor 15), a member of the transforming growth factor beta superfamily, has been shown to be a biomarker of mitochondrial diseases. Additionally, increased levels of GDF-15 have also been associated with all-cause death and heart failure (HF) in patients with coronary artery disease. Conflicting data exists regarding GDF-15 levels and risk of ventricular arrhythmic events. Hypothesis: In a cohort of patients with reduced left ventricular systolic function, GDF-15 identifies patients at high risk of (1) worsening HF and (2) sudden arrhythmic death. Methods: PROSe-ICD is a multicenter prospective cohort study of 1,189 patients with ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy who underwent ICD implantation for primary prevention of sudden death, designed to compare patients who sustain an appropriate ICD firing for rapid VT or VF (surrogate for sudden death) to those who do not. Worsening HF was defined as any admission for acute decompensated HF during an average follow up period of 8 years. Blood samples were obtained on average every 6 months and GDF-15 was measured with an ELISA based assay from a subset of PROSe-ICD patients with appropriate ICD shocks (n=58; 228 samples), worsening HF (n=42; 157 samples), both HF and VT/VF (n=12; 46 samples) and 237 samples from 46 controls without ICD shocks and HF, matched for age and ejection fraction. Results: GDF-15 levels were elevated in patients who had acute decompensated heart failure, but not in patients who experienced ICD shocks in the absence of worsening HF (see Figure). Differences in GDF-15 levels were relatively stable over time within individual patients, and did not predict HF events. Conclusions: Future studies need to examine whether patients with the highest GDF-15 levels have underlying mitochondrial or nuclear DNA mutations leading to mitochondrial dysfunction and worsening HF.