Predicted Research Articles

Non-linear modelling of elastic hysteretic damping in the time domain

Elastic hysteretic damping is defined as the dissipation of energy at a rate that is weakly dependent on frequency of vibration. In this article, we propose that the elastic hysteretic damping can be achieved by a simple modification to the viscous damping model. The proposed modification is based on computing an instantaneous correction factor that recursively depends on the state variables of the system. This correction factor is related to the rate by which the velocity changes with respect to the displacement. The new model compares quite favourably with the other existing solutions in the time-domain and differences between the solutions become evident for higher damping ratios. It is found that the new model predicts consistently the weak variation in the loss factor as a function of frequency. In addition to its simple mathematical formulation, the proposed model is superior to the existing solutions in that it does not require knowledge of the past history of motion neither the knowledge of the excitation frequency and is extensible to any type of loading. Various aspects pertaining to the linearity of the proposed approach are finally discussed.

Tipos de motivación en relación a la ansiedad ante los exámenes en el alumnado de educación primaria

La ansiedad ante los exámenes supone una problemática creciente en el contexto académico, si bien su estudio en la etapa de Educación Primaria es todavía escaso. El presente trabajo pretende profundizar en los factores que subyacen a este fenómeno, analizando el papel que desempeñan la motivación extrínseca e intrínseca en el desarrollo de la ansiedad ante los exámenes. Se analiza también el efecto del género en esta relación. En el estudio participaron 274 estudiantes de quinto y sexto curso de Educación Primaria, seleccionados mediante un muestreo por conveniencia. Para la medida de la ansiedad ante los exámenes y del tipo de motivación se utilizaron cuestionarios validados. La capacidad predictiva de la motivación sobre la ansiedad ante los exámenes se determinó mediante un análisis de regresión lineal múltiple. Las diferencias de género se estimaron mediante la prueba de T de Student para muestras independientes. Los resultados evidenciaron que la motivación intrínseca constituye un predictor negativo significativo de la ansiedad ante los exámenes, siendo la motivación extrínseca un predictor positivo estadísticamente significativo. Las mujeres evidenciaron niveles significativamente más altos en motivación intrínseca que los hombres. No se encontraron diferencias de género significativas ni en motivación extrínseca ni en ansiedad ante los exámenes. Estos hallazgos parecen indicar que la motivación intrínseca es un factor de protección frente a la ansiedad ante los exámenes en Educación Primaria, y la motivación extrínseca, un factor de riesgo. Se sugieren algunas pautas para el profesorado con el fin de prevenir o reducir la tendencia del alumnado a experimentar ansiedad ante los exámenes.

STUDY OF THE MAXIMUM DAILY RAINS IN THE CITY OF BARREIRAS/BA THROUGH TIME SERIES METHODOLOGY

Natural disasters are increasingly present in everyday society. In Brazil the most common natural disasters are landslides and floods which are phenomena directly related to hydrological variables such as rainfall. The study and statistical monitoring of the meteorological regime of a given region, in particular, daily maximum rainfall data can provide important information to guide public disaster prevention policies, as well as reduce the human vulnerability of the local population. The main objective of this paper was to analyze a historical series related to the maximum daily rainfall of the city of Barreiras/BA from january 1970 to may 2019 through time series analysis. Results of applied tests indicated the presence of seasonality and also that there is no trend in the series. Given this, the SARIMA model class was considered the most suitable for modeling and the adjusted models presented good predictions allowing the identification of patterns in the series.

APPLICATION PROBABILISTIC ECONOMIC MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR OPTIMIZATION PLANNING OF AN IRREDUCIBLE STOCK AND IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF LOGISTICS SUPPLY MANAGEMENT OF THE STATE DEFENCE FORCES WITHOUT REDUSING THE LEVEL OF RELIABILITY

Предметом вивчення в статті є логістичне забезпечення сил оборони держави. Метою дослiдження є розробка ймовірнісної економіко-математичної моделі управління запасами для планування незнижувального запасу засобів матеріально-технічного забезпечення сил оборони держави. Завдання дослідження: сформулювати задачу визначення розміру незнижувального (резервного) запасу матеріально-технічних засобів за умови, що максимально можливе значення ймовірності його вичерпання протягом визначеного періоду не перевищить граничного значення у термінах економіко-математичної моделі Уілсона; шляхом статистичної обробки даних спостережень дій сил оборони держави при виконанні ними завдань за призначенням представити задачу визначення оптимального незнижувального запасу за видами витрат засобів матеріально-технічного забезпечення без зниження рівня надійності як задачу перевірки багатоальтернативних статистичних гіпотез; на підставі розв’язання задачі континуального лінійного програмування визначити оптимальний незнижувального запасу відповідно характеру витрат з метою підвищення ефективності управління логістичним забезпеченням сил оборони держави засобами матеріально-технічного забезпечення. Методологічною основою дослідження стали загальнонаукові та спеціальні методи наукового пізнання. Отримані такі результати . Витрати запасів матеріально-технічних засобів при виконанні силами оборони держави завдань за призначенням протягом певного періоду часу є нормально розподіленою випадковою величиною з математичним очікуванням та середнєквадратичним відхиленням, обрахованими за результатами статистичної обробки даних. Задача визначення оптимального незнижувального запасу за видами витрат матеріально-технічних засобів без зниження рівня надійності сформульована як задача перевірки багатоальтернативних статистичних гіпотез та розв’язана як задача континуального лінійного програмування. Висновки. Визначення розміру незнижувального (резервного) запасу матеріально-технічних засобів підрозділів сил оборони держави при виконанні ними завдань за призначенням за умови, що максимально можливе значення ймовірності його вичерпання протягом визначеного періоду не перевищить граничного значення доцільно сформулювати у термінах економіко-математичної моделі Уілсона. Припущення про те, що витрати запасів матеріально-технічних засобів при виконанні силами оборони держави при виконанні завдань за призначенням, є випадковою величиною, підкореною нормальному закону розподілу, дозволить скористатися відомим апаратом теорії імовірності та перевірки багато альтернативних статистичних гіпотез та робити розрахунки за даними існуючої статистичної вибірки. Статистична обробка даних, отриманих при виконанні силами оборони держави завдань за призначенням дає змогу отримати вихідні дані та обрахувати прогнозовані оптимальні ймовірності розподілу витрат матеріально-технічних засобів відповідно до поточного, середнього, капітального ремонту та безповоротних втрат.

An Analysis of the Prediction Factors of Character Strengths on the Playfulness of Young Children

An Analysis of the Prediction Factors of Character Strengths on the Playfulness of Young Children

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEARNING SCHOOL AND SCHOOL HAPPINESS

The aim of this study is to reveal relationship between learning school and school happiness according to views of teachers who study at state schools. It is a kind of predictive study which is designed with the correlational (relational) scanning model that is one of the quantitative research methods. Teachers who study at state schools in Ercis in Van during 2017-2018 academic year create population of research and 371 teachers who are chosen from this population with simple and random sampling method create sample of the research. Research data was collected with Learning School Perception Scale taken from Guclu and Turkoglu (2003), and Organizational Happiness Scale taken from Paschoal and Tamayo (2008) and adapted to Turkish by Arslan and Polat (2007). Arithmetic average, correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to analyze data. At the result of the research, it was concluded that the quality of being learning school is at 'medium' level and school happiness is at a 'good' level, there is a positive and meaningful relationship at medium level between school happiness and school and the vision, shared by sub-dimensions of learning school, mental models and team learning are meaningful predictors for school happiness of teachers. Article visualizations:

Neural Network-Based Prediction of Liquid-Phase Diffusion Coefficient to Model Fuel-Oil Dilution on Engine Cylinder Walls

Neural Network-Based Prediction of Liquid-Phase Diffusion Coefficient to Model Fuel-Oil Dilution on Engine Cylinder Walls

A Machine Learning Based Approach to Predict Ostreopsis Cf. Ovata Bloom Events from Meteo- Marine Forecasts

Ostreopsis cf. ovata, a benthic toxic marine dinoflagellate, has been recorded along Italian coasts since the '90, but large bloom events have been reported only in recent years. In 2005, a monitoring programme started along the Ligurian coast (North-western Mediterranean), where time series of cell abundances have been collected for several sites, together with a range of related environmental variables. Data of cell abundances in 15 sites, together with environmental data provided by meteo-marine forecasting models used by the Regional Environmental Agency (ARPAL), have been used to implement a predictive modelling tool, able to forecast Ostreopsis cells concentration threshold exceedance as a function of meteo-marine forecasts. Starting from the experience of the predictive model implemented in 2015, the Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) has been applied: the model has been trained on past data (from 2015 until 2017) and tested with data taken during the two last available years (2018 and 2019). The use of this extremely adaptable regression model to evaluate threshold exceedance has shown a good capacity to predict overcoming events at a given spatial location. This tool can help the Regional Agency in the decision making process, providing an alert when/where a given alarm threshold is exceeded in order to trigger the emergency procedures. This is a first step in defining a predictive sampling strategy able to better capture bloom events.Keywords: classification, regression, machine learning, environmental data, Ostreopsis

Drain management after distal pancreatectomy based on a predictive model, including drainage fluid amylase and biochemical inflammatory markers: a preliminary study

Introduction Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the Achilles’ heel of distal pancreatectomy. Surgeons use abdominal drains for early prediction, diagnosis, and timely management of POPF. The utility of drainage fluid in the prediction and diagnosis of POPF is a matter of debate. Patients and methods This is a retrospective cohort study of all patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy between January 2018 and January 2020. The present study aims to evaluate the association between drainage fluid amylase (DFA) and systemic inflammatory markers in the prediction of clinically relevant POPF. Results This study included 44 patients with a mean age of 40.3±16.3 years, and the female : male ratio was 2.7 : 1. POPF occurred in 11 (25%) patients. Of them, nine (20.5%) patients were managed by additional ultrasound-guided tube drainage. Higher drainage fluid amount and DFA-D1 were associated with a higher risk of POPF (P=0.036, and 0.009, respectively). The leukocytic count was significantly higher in POPF in the third postoperative day (POD) (P=0.032). POPF group had a significantly higher level of serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) on the fourth POD (P=0.001). Patients with high DFA-D1 (>330 IU/l), rising leukocytic count, and high serum LDH were significantly at higher risk of POPF (9/11 developed POPF, P=0.0001). Conclusion DFA-D1, rising leukocytic count, and high serum LDH level compromised a more robust predictive model for POPF. The cutoff value of DFA proposed by the ISGPF is applicable when combined with leukocytic count and serum LDH. Prospective large-scale studies are needed.

Predictive factors of renal and ureteric stone disintegration by the extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy

Objective The objective of this work was to evaluate possible predictive variables for the outcome of shock wave lithotripsy of renal and ureteric stones. Background Nephrolithiasis is a common disease affecting the population with a peak incidence at around the third to fourth decade of life. The prevalence of stone disease is increasing with increasing annual expenditure. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) is the preferred treatment for renal and several ureteral calculi owing to its noninvasive characteristic and its favorable clinical outcome. Patients and methods This study was carried out on 100 patients who are supposed to be treated with ESWL and diagnosed with renal or ureteric stone. All cases were evaluated before, during, and after the procedure as follows: full medical history, clinical examination, laboratory investigations, and radiological investigations. Results A total of 91 of the studied patients were males. Age of the studied patients ranged from 24 to 58 years, with a mean of 38.72 years. There is a significant relation between need for second session and presence of tenderness, hypertension and stone site, international normalized ratio, operation duration, complaint duration, stone size, and Hounsfield unit. Presence of renal stone significantly protects from that risk. There are significant relations between postoperative complications and smoking, BMI, urine analysis, hypertension, and past history of stone. There are significant relations between postoperative complications and need for second session, serum creatinine, operation duration, and stone size. Conclusion ESWL is an effective and reasonable initial therapy in the management of ureteral stones 2 cm or less at all levels of the ureter.

Resilience and its Relationship with Exposure to Violence in Emergency Nurses

Background: Workplace violence (WPV) is a detrimental factor affecting nurses' health and performance. Individual protective factors such as resilience can assist nurses in coping with and adapting to workplace adversity. Objectives: The present study was aimed to determine the relationship between resilience and exposure to WPV in emergency nurses. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out on 118 emergency nurses in Tabriz educational hospitals, Iran. The participants were selected through a convenience sampling method. A demographic questionnaire, the Conner-Davidson Resilience Scale, and the Modified Questionnaire of Workplace Violence in the health sector were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression analysis, t-test, and one-way analysis of variance. Results: The mean resilience score of nurses was 25.05 ± 5.79 in the possible range of 0–40. Most of the cases of violence were verbal threats (80.5%), and 56.7% of the exposures occurred during the night shift. Logistic regression showed that lower resilience predicted verbal threats (P = 0.001) and physical attacks (P = 0.038) against the individual. In addition to resilience, working on the night shift significantly predicted verbal threats (P = 0.008) against nurses. Conclusion: The resilience score was lower in nurses who exposed to violence. Empowerment programs are suggested to improve the resilience of nurses.

WITHDRAWN: Anemiascreening in pregnant women by using feature selection with data classification algorithms

Abstract Anemia in pregnancy is a significant issue that risks the life of the mother and the fetus, if not given proper care. Though it is very common in women during pregnancy, a better understanding of the outcome is very important for the development of the treatment strategies. Data mining techniques led to better performance in decision making. This work aims to introduce various feature selection methods and classification algorithms based on the classes. They are compared to finding out the best possible method for accurate prediction of the existence of anemia. The anemia prediction in women during pregnancy took many categories including employment, type of residence - urban and rural for the different types of anemia classes namely, Mild, Severe or moderate and Non-anemic. This paper discussing on anemia prediction in three phases namely (i) Gaussnominal classification; (ii) VectNeighbour Classification and (iii) Random Prediction (PR) classification with appropriate feature selection techniques are described. The experimental result of phase 3 Random Prediction (RP) classification achieved 98.94% that was more effective than the previous works like Gaussnomial and VectNeighbour classifications. The final result showed that the new model outperformed the other models inaccuracy.

Missed pay prediction — the advent of a new era

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Occupational Exposure to Blood and Body Fluids and Knowledge of HIV Post-Exposure Prophylaxis among Medical and Allied Health Students in Northern Nigeria.

Clinical students are at increased risk of exposure to blood-borne pathogens. However, little has been documented about their exposure to blood and body fluids and their knowledge of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in high-HIV burden settings, such as Nigeria. To determine the prevalence and predictors of BBF exposure and knowledge about PEP among medical and allied health students in northern Nigeria. In a cross-sectional study, 273 clinical students were asked to complete structured questionnaires. The prevalence of BBF exposure was determined. Binary logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of BBF exposure. The majority of the respondents (98.2%) had heard about PEP; 26.0% (n=71) had adequate knowledge about PEP. 76 (27.8%) of the 273 respondents reported accidental exposure to HIV. 230 (84.2%) respondents had positive attitude toward HIV PEP. Of those who had had accidental exposure to HIV (n=76), only 13% (n=10) received PEP. The level of knowledge about PEP was predicted by previous training (aOR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.80 ["no" vs "yes"]), year of training (aOR 4.10, 95% CI 1.60 to 10.47 [6th vs 4th year]), course of study (aOR 4.69, 95% CI 2.06 to 10.68 ["allied health" vs "clinical medicine"]) and religion (aOR 5.39, 95% CI 1.40 to 20.71 ["non-Muslim" vs "Muslim"]). Similarly, accidental exposure was independently predicted by respondents' sex (aOR 2.55, 95% CI1.36 to 4.75 ["female" vs "male"]), age (aOR 2.54, 95% CI 1.06 to 6.15 ["25-29" vs "20-24" years]), ethnicity (aOR 2.15, 95% CI1.10 to 5.14 ["others" vs "Hausa/Fulani"]), course of study (aOR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.38 ["allied health" vs "clinical medicine"]), and previous PEP training (aOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.78 ["no" vs "yes"]). One in four clinical students reported exposure to BBF. Most students expressed a positive attitude toward PEP, but knowledge and uptake of PEP was sub-optimal. We recommend strengthening training curricula for infection control and prevention and enhancing protocols for timely post-exposure evaluation and follow up for all exposure incidents.

VP40.12: Prediction of large‐for‐gestational‐age infants by universal third trimester ultrasound

VP40.12: Prediction of large‐for‐gestational‐age infants by universal third trimester ultrasound

Circular RNA circ-PRKCI promotes lung cancer progression by binding to microRNA-1324 to regulate MECP2 expression.

We aimed to investigate the expression and specific molecular mechanism of circ-PRKCI in lung cancer (LCa). The relationship between the expression level of circ-PRKCI and the prognosis of patients was analyzed. The impacts of circ-PRKCI on the invasiveness of LCa cells were examined by Cell Counting Kit-8 (CCK-8) experiments, clone formation experiments, and transwell invasion experiments. Subcellular localization of circ-PRKCI was determined through nuclear separation experiments. Downstream target genes that can bind to circ-PRKCI was predicted through bioinformatics analysis, and was then verified by Dual-Luciferase experiments, quantitative Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR) experiments, and Western blot experiments. Circ-PRKCI level was remarkably elevated in LCa tumor tissues and cell lines. At the same time, highly expressed circ-PRKCI was correlated with the poor prognosis of LCa patients. In vitro cell experiments revealed that inhibition of circ-PRKCI in LCa cell lines remarkably inhibited cell invasiveness and proliferation. In addition, circ-PRKCI can compete with MECP2 to bind microRNA-1324 and thus affect the progression of LCa. Our study shows for the first time that circ-PRKCI modulates the progression of LCa through microRNA-150-5p/MECP2 axis.

Neuroendocrinal tumor of pancreas: incidence, prognosis, and surgical outcomes: a single-center experience

Background Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) are rare pancreas tumors, which represent less than 2% of all pancreatic tumors. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence, clinicopathological characteristics, and prognostic factors for PNET survival predictions. Patients and methods This study included patients with PNETs treated at our center during the period from January 2007 until December 2017. For patients with PNETs, preoperative data, operative, postoperative data, and records of survival were analyzed. Results In our center, 720 patients underwent pancreatic surgery, including 71 patients (9.86%) with pathologically confirmed PNETs. There were 43 women (60.6%) and 28 men (39.4%), with a median age of 35 years, range 12–74 years. The PNETs were solitary in 65 (91.5%) patients, and the median diameter was 7 cm (range 1–18 cm). The tumors were located in the pancreatic head in 35 (49.3%) patients, body in six (8.5%) patients, and tail in 30 (42.2%) patients. Abdominal pain was the commonest presentation in 57 (80.3%) patients. Nonfunctioning PANETs presented in 65 (91.5%) patients. The overall recurrence rate was seven (9.9%) patients. The overall survival at 1, 3, and 5 years for all cases was 96, 85, and 72%, respectively, with a median survival of 85 months. Grade of tumor was the only independent factor for survival. Conclusion PNETs are rare pancreatic neoplasm more common in female sex. Nonfunctioning PNETS presented in most cases. Surgical resection was based on the site, size, and extension of the tumor. Grade of tumor was the only independent factor for survival.

Study of placental laterality with uterine artery Doppler in the prediction of preeclampsia

Objective To demonst rate if placental laterality combined with uterine artery Doppler can be used as a predictor for the development of preeclampsia. Background The uteroplacental blood flow may be deficient in cases with lateral placenta, and this may facilitate development of preeclampsia. Placenta is considered lateral when 75% or more of the placental mass is located at one side of the midline of uterine cavity. Uterine artery Doppler was done to all cases to find out high resistance index and abnormal protodiastolic notch in Doppler waveform. Patients and methods Ultrasonography was done for all participants at 18–22 weeks of pregnancy to determine the placenta location. Uterine artery Doppler was done for all cases at 18–24 weeks of gestation to find out the presence of protodiastolic notch and high resistance index. Results Of 73 cases with lateral placenta and high uterine artery resistance index, 56 (76.7%) cases developed preeclampsia (P = 0.026). Moreover, among 77 cases with lateral and presented protodiastolic notch, 57 (74%) cases developed preeclampsia (P = 0.050). Conclusion The risk of developing preeclampsia is significantly increased when lateral placentas are associated with uterine artery Doppler abnormality.

Application of Bayesian Statistics in Hydraulic Flow Units Modeling and Permeability Prediction (A case study Carbonate Reservoir in SW Iran)

The determination of rock types for petrophysical studies has a wide range of applications. It is widely used in drilling, production, and especially in the study and characterization of reservoirs. Zoning of flow units and permeability estimation is one of the challenging tasks of reservoir studies, which uses the integration of data from well logs and analysis of the core. In this study, a Bayesian theory-based statistical modeling method is proposed to identify hydraulic flow units in coreless wells using the concept of hydraulic flow unit and then permeability estimation. In the flow zone indicator (FZI) method, the formation is divided into five hydraulic flow units. In the Winland R35 ethod, however, it is divided into four hydraulic flow units. The Bayesian statistical model divides the existing complex carbonate reservoir rock data into three hydraulic flow units with the most probability of similarity. The second and third hydraulic flow units have closer properties compared to the first hydraulic unit. The Bayesian method-based permeability estimation modeling has acceptable precision, and validation of its results with core data indicates a precision factor of 0.96. The findings of this study can help in better understanding of the concept of flow units and more effective estimation of the permeability of the rocks of the heterogeneous carbonate reservoir.

Stacked Bidirectional과 Stacked Unidirectional LSTM을 활용한 주별 전력부하예측

본 연구에서는 주별전력부하 예측을 위해서 LSTM 모형을 활용하였다. LSTM 모형은 단방향(Unidirectional) 또는 양방향(Bidirectional)인지와 단층(Single-layer) 또는 심층(Stacked)인지에 따라서 모형을 세분화시켜 구축하였다. 입력변수로는 전력부하에 영향을 미치는 기상요인과 날짜요인 그리고 전력시차항 등을 다양하게 반영하였다. 표본 외 예측기간은 주별 예측에서 가장 중요한 동절기(1월)와 하절기(8월)를 택했다. 따라서 2018년 1월과 8월 그리고 2019년 1월과 8월에 대해서 각각 주별예측을 실시하였다. 구축한 LSTM 모형들의 예측력을 검증할 벤치마크 모형으로는 MLP 모형을 구축하였다. 예측결과, LSTM 모형이 2018년과 2019년에 대해서 평균적으로 모두 MLP 모형보다 예측력이 좋은 것으로 나타났다.