Abstract Fitting process carried out in automobile transmission assembly line is classified into three classes: heat fitting, press fitting, and their combined fitting. Heat fitting is a method that heats gear to a suitable range under the tempering temperature and squeezes it toward the outer diameter of shaft. Its stress depends on the yield strength of gear. Press fitting is a method that generally squeezes gear toward that of shaft at room temperature by press. Another method heats warmly gear and safely squeezes it toward that of shaft. Warm shrink fitting process for automobile transmission part is now gradually increased, but the parts (shaft/gear) assembled by this process produced dimensional change in both outer diameter and profile of the gear, so that it may cause noise and vibration between gears. In order to solve these problems, we need an analysis of warm shrink fitting process, in which design parameters are involved; contact pressure according to fitting interference between outer diameter of shaft and inner diameter of gear, fitting temperature, and profile tolerance of gear. In this study, an closed form equation to predict contact pressure and fitting load was proposed in order to develop optimization technique of warm shrink fitting process and verified its reliability through the experimental results measured in the field and FEM, that is, thermal–structural coupled field analysis. Actual loads measured in the field have a good agreement with the results obtained by theoretical and finite element analysis and also the expanded amounts of the outer diameters of the gears have a good agreement with the results.