Wind Speed Prediction Research Articles

Wind speed multi-step prediction based on the comparison of wind characteristics and error correction: Focusing on periodic thermally-developed winds

To leverage the abundant wind energy resources available in mountainous regions, an increasing number of wind power facilities and associated transportation infrastructure are being constructed in these areas. There are different types of intense winds in mountainous areas and the non-linear characteristics of the different intense winds vary significantly. The periodic thermally-developed winds are the commonly occurring type of intense wind. Based on the comparison of wind characteristics, this research proposes a prediction model for the periodic thermally-developed winds. The research utilizes the Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory model(Bi-LSTM), which has been optimized by the Bayesian optimization(BO), to predict wind speed. Based on the relationship between wind field characteristics in periodic thermally-developed winds, a regression correction module is proposed using a joint probability model. Additionally, to address the volatility and uncertainty of wind speed, a Gaussian mixture model is employed for probability prediction. The experimental results demonstrate several findings: 1. The BO-Bi-LSTM model accurately and reliably predicts multi-step results for periodic thermally-developed winds in mountainous areas. 2. The proposed correction module, when combined with other models, yields improved wind speed accuracy compared to the uncorrected values. 3. The Gaussian mixture model produces probabilistic prediction results that consider both interval coverage and interval bandwidth simultaneously. 4. The proposed model can successfully predict periodic thermally-developed winds in mountainous areas for practical engineering purposes, resulting in reliable probabilistic prediction outcomes. It is of great significance for the utilization of wind energy resources and the driving safety of vehicles on ancillary structures.

Investigation Neural Network Models for Wind Speed Prediction Based on Meteorological Observations in Northern Dagestan

Investigation Neural Network Models for Wind Speed Prediction Based on Meteorological Observations in Northern Dagestan

Wind Speed Prediction Using Deep Recurrent Neural Networks and Farm Platform Features for One-Hour-Ahead Forecast

This paper proposes a deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) approach to model the one-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting by using various meteorological sensory data from the North Wyke farm platform (NWFP). To refine model input, mutual information analysis is applied to eliminate irrelevant sensory data. The DRNN architecture employs three recurrent layers Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and simple Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to capture temporal relationships. The proposed networks are tested using real-life, one-year data from the NWFP. The results showed a strong correlation between the actual and predicted wind speed for LSTM, GRU, and RNN layers-based DRNN, however, simple RNN slightly outperformed the other two recurrent layers. The distribution of the network errors over the year is also analyzed. Although the observed meteorological data between the years was from different distributions, the proposed network generalized well even though these data were altered due to global warming.

Interpretable extreme wind speed prediction with concept bottleneck models

Concept-bottleneck models (CBMs) are a new paradigm to construct interpretable classifiers. The CBM architecture can be regarded as a neural network with a single hidden layer whose neurons are replaced by binary classifiers. Each of these binary classifiers implements a concept, that is, it attempts to answer a meaningful yes/no question: the presence or absence of a concept in the observation presented to the network. The output layer is usually implemented as a linear stage that combines the concepts into final decisions. This paper presents an application of the CBM paradigm to a problem of Extreme Wind Speed prediction, such that the forecasting properties of the system can be interpreted in terms of different concepts considered for this problem. A significant contribution of this paper is the proposal of an automated concept generation method, with controlled sparsity, in which the concepts are automatically extracted from the branches of decision trees fitted with informative features that capture the dynamics of the wind speed time series. The final forecasting system is able to predict extreme wind speed values in wind farms with good accuracy and interpretable results, as experiments over real wind speed data from a wind farm in Spain show.

Operational reliability evaluation integrating prediction models for enhanced situational awareness in wind-integrated system

The extensive implementation of wind power generation (WPG) challenges power systems' flexibility and reliability during operations. Fluctuating wind speeds lead to variability in generation within wind energy systems, directly impacting operational reliability. Therefore, evaluating wind energy systems' situational awareness (SA) is imperative to forecast two-day-ahead operational reliability, facilitating effective power system planning. The foundation of SA for wind energy systems lies in monitoring the wind profile. This involves gaining insights into the system's state through perceiving wind speed and WPG, comprehending the dynamics of its state, and subsequently predicting operational reliability. To achieve this, a Simulink model of the wind system has been developed and integrated with dSPACE hardware through a real-time interface for real-time validation and implementation of a cloud-based IoT platform. This IoT platform aids in acquiring real-time data on wind profiles, enhancing the assessment of SA. The representation of the wind energy system utilizes a multi-state wind speed model, incorporating the inherent randomness of wind energy generation. A time-series-based non-linear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) artificial neural network (ANN) model is employed to predict wind speed and WPG for SA-based operational reliability. This model proves instrumental in forecasting the dynamic nature of wind speed and WPG. The proposed approach for operational planning is validated by implementing the wind energy system in real-time on the dSPACE platform and integrating it with IoT. This approach considers the uncertainties associated with wind generation, providing a comprehensive framework for assessing SA and optimizing power system operations.

Hybrid neural network-aided strong wind speed prediction along rail network

With the advent of networked rail operations and increasing risks caused by extreme weather conditions, there is an urgent need to enhance the safety early warning and emergency protection for rail under extreme wind environments. By deploying anemometers along the railway and monitoring the surrounding wind speeds, dispatchers can proactively take protective measures to mitigate the impact of severe weather on rail transportation. In particular, accurate time-series forecasting during periods when wind speeds exceed the threshold is critical for railway anomaly monitoring. This study employs Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to determine the threshold for strong winds. In order to identify high wind speeds, memory networks are used to memorize strong wind events in historical data. By combining the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) module with the attention mechanism, this study ultimately develops a hybrid neural network model in the prediction of wind speed. Based on real-world datasets of wind speeds along the Hangzhou-Haining intercity railway and along the Norway rail network via meteorological stations, the effectiveness of the hybrid neural network model has been verified by comparing base models. The proposed strong wind speed prediction has practical applications in enhancing early warning and rail safety under complex wind climate.

Comparative analysis of the predictive capabilities of some machine learning models: A case study using wind speed data

The widespread use of fossil fuels for global energy production significantly contributes to global warming. This study presents a comparative analysis of various machine learning models, which are the long short-term memory (LSTM) network, support vector regression (SVR), and gradient boosting method (GBM). Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a benchmark model across different forecasting horizons. The study uses South African wind speed data from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2021, sourced from the Western Cape province. The dataset underwent preprocessing, and diverse feature selection techniques were implemented to enhance model accuracy. Performance evaluation of the models was done using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). Results indicate that SVR exhibits superior accuracy to other models for two distinct forecast horizons (h = 670 and h = 1339), respectively. Additionally, GPR surpasses other models for the forecasting horizon h = 224. This study provides insights into the comparative strengths and weaknesses of different machine learning models for wind speed prediction, which could be useful in selecting an appropriate model for future applications in renewable energy and weather forecasting. Potential areas for future research include improving prediction accuracy via ensemble deep learning algorithms and incorporating additional meteorological variables. Moreover, investigating temporal dynamics, broadening geographical coverage and integrating uncertainty quantification methods can improve wind speed prediction, thereby facilitating more effective renewable energy planning and decision-making processes

A Dynamic-Inner Manifold Broad Learning System With Coupled Time–Frequency Domain for Wind Speed Prediction

A Dynamic-Inner Manifold Broad Learning System With Coupled Time–Frequency Domain for Wind Speed Prediction

Multivariate short-term wind speed prediction based on PSO-VMD-SE-ICEEMDAN two-stage decomposition and Att-S2S

To counter the challenges posed by the unpredictability of wind velocities on wind energy production, a wind speed prediction model combining chaotic mapping-based particle swarm optimization with variational modal decomposition (CPSO-VMD), sample entropy (SE), improved completely integrated empirical modal decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) two-layer decomposition, and attention mechanism-based sequence to sequence (Att-S2S) method is proposed. Firstly, the Lasso method is employed to filter the features that significantly contribute to the wind speed data, fully considering hidden relevant information and eliminating redundant data to improve the prediction accuracy; Secondly, CPSO optimized by introducing chaotic mapping determines the parameter pairs for VMD. This facilitates an adaptive VMD breakdown of the wind speed sequence, aiding in noise removal and selection of the intrinsic mode function (IMF) with the highest sample entropy for further decomposition using ICEEMDAN. In light of this, a sequence-to-sequence method based on the attention mechanism is suggested, which may highlight the influence features' effects on IMF; Finally, the proposed model is implemented at both the Paso Robles wind farm and the Oasis wind farm for practical assessment and benchmarked against other models. Overall, the proposed model outperforms the other models in these trials.

Hybrid neural network wind speed prediction based on two-level decomposition and weighted averaging

Hybrid neural network wind speed prediction based on two-level decomposition and weighted averaging

Comparative study of machine learning algorithms for wind speed prediction in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This study evaluated the performance of multiple models that used machine learning to anticipate wind speed in the city of Dhaka. The NASA Power website provided the data set for this investigation. The models used for prediction included the decision tree regressor, support vector regressor, random forest, linear regression, neural network and polynomial regression. A hold-out check and k-fold cross-validation were used to assess how well these models performed. With the highest R2 scores and lowest RMSEs on both the validation and test sets, the results demonstrated that the polynomial regression model performed the best. With the lowest R2 scores and largest RMSEs on both sets, the decision tree model scored the poorest. High R2 scores and low RMSEs were achieved by the random forest model, which had comparable performance to the polynomial regression model but required a longer computation time. In addition, the neural network model demonstrated commendable predictive accuracy, yielding an R2 score of 0.67 and a low RMSE of 0.57. However, its application is contingent on the availability of substantial computational resources, given its extensive computation time of 457.93 s. The study concludes by highlighting the efficacy of the Polynomial Regression model as the optimal choice for wind speed prediction in Dhaka, offering a balance between superior performance and efficient computation. This insight provides valuable guidance for practitioners and researchers seeking effective models for similar applications.

Optimisation of city structures with respect to high wind speeds using U-Net models

The design and placement of a new building in an urban environment is optimised so that pedestrians do not feel uncomfortable due to high wind speeds. Architects and city planners typically use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to predict the effects of wind on new buildings. CFD is too time consuming to be used in generative design tools, which are necessary because they allow designers to visualise and iterate on their ideas, collaborate effectively and work more efficiently. These tools enhance the design process, facilitate communication and feedback, and save time by automating tasks. Finding a generative design model based on limited data is challenging due to issues such as insufficient representation, increased risk of overfitting, lack of statistical significance, potential bias and difficulties in validation and evaluation. In the design framework proposed in this paper, the computationally intensive CFD solver could be replaced by a fast machine learning surrogate predicting wind speed. The replacement is a U-Net convolutional neural network trained on high-precision Reynolds’ averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations (CFD simulations). The proposed workflow is demonstrated by optimising the placement of a hypothetical new building on a city square in Gothenburg, Sweden. The surrogate used in the optimisation process calculates an optimal building design within seconds instead of hours saving 11 h of simulation time. The actual area with strong wind effects is reduced by half.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction for Bridge Site Area Based on Wavelet Denoising OOA-Transformer

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction for Bridge Site Area Based on Wavelet Denoising OOA-Transformer

Multi-step ahead forecasting of wind vector for multiple wind turbines based on new deep learning model

Obtaining wind speed and direction predictions with high accuracy is of vital significance for the utilization of wind energy. This research focuses on three problems: how to realize multiple station prediction, multi-step ahead prediction and wind vector prediction. Firstly, a 4-D time series variable scene is proposed for multi-step ahead forecasting of multiple station wind vector. Then, a wind vector prediction model (CM-G) based on Convolutional Minimum Gate Memory Neural Network and Graph Convolution Neural Network is constructed to improve the prediction accuracy. Further, three multi-step ahead forecasting modes are compared and their advantages, disadvantages and application scenarios are analyzed. Finally, the model and method proposed in this study are applied to two datasets in Tibet, China. The experimental results and conclusions are as follows: (1) The prediction accuracy of CM-G proposed in this study is higher than that of the existing state-of-the-art model in 90 % of the metrics. (2) From single-step to multi-step ahead forecasting, the prediction accuracy of wind vector gradually decreases. (3) In wind vector prediction, the prediction accuracy of wind speed is higher than that of wind direction. (4) The direction of accuracy improvement for multiple stations is relatively consistent with the average wind direction.

A new multi-objective ensemble wind speed forecasting system: Mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm

Improving wind speed prediction is essential for increasing the use of wind energy and promoting sustainable utilization of resources. Most previous studies relied on single-valued data with a common frequency, resulting in limited wind energy utilization. To fill this research gap and strengthen the precision of wind speed prediction, this study proposes a new multi-objective ensemble forecasting system based on a mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm for power system decision-making. The system comprises three modules: interval-valued data preprocessing module, mixed-frequency interval-valued forecasting module, and multi-objective ensemble module. Firstly, to reduce the data complexity by preprocessing the mixed-frequency interval-valued wind speed data, an interval-valued data preprocessing module is designed. Then, different types of prediction models, including a mixed data sampling model, two artificial intelligence models, and a traditional statistical model, are used to predict each subsequence in the mixed-frequency interval-valued forecasting module. Finally, a multi-objective ensemble module is designed to ensemble the interval-valued prediction results of each sub-model, and the final interval-valued wind speed forecast results are obtained. The proposed system obtained IMAE values of 0.4634 and 0.3452 at sites from Inner Mongolia and Penglai, China, respectively; this provides a significant tool for wind speed prediction.

Comparing annual extreme winds in Iran predicted by numerical weather forecasting and Gram-Charlier statistical model with meteorological observation data

Iran has been experiencing severe dust storms due to strong wind speeds that cause sand erosion. This erosion is particularly pronounced in the semi-arid and arid zones. Wind speed predictions using numerical weather forecasting (NWF) are indispensable; however, the applicability of NWF for predicting extreme annual wind speeds is not well known. To validate the NWF model, this study compared NWF-model-predicted 3-hour averaged wind speeds over one year and those observed at 390 weather stations. In addition, a statistical model was employed to estimate the probability densities of wind speeds for both the observational data and the NWF output. As an NWF model, the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to simulate wind speeds. The results indicate that the observation data are consistent with the modeled datasets regarding the relationships among the mean, standard deviation, and skewness, whereas the WRF model tends to overestimate the mean wind speeds. In addition, the predictability of annual extreme wind speeds was determined using the peak factor. Moreover, skewness has emerged as an influential parameter for predicting extreme winds. Finally, the Gram-Charlier series model was utilized to estimate probability density functions of the wind speeds, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing positively skewed distributions. The present analyses broaden the use of both NWF outputs and statistical methods to predict extreme wind speeds in Iran.

Developing a dynamic-statistical downscaling framework for wind speed prediction for the Beijing 2022 Winter olympics

Developing a dynamic-statistical downscaling framework for wind speed prediction for the Beijing 2022 Winter olympics

Prediction of Solar Wind Speed Through Machine Learning From Extrapolated Solar Coronal Magnetic Field

AbstractAn accurate solar wind (SW) speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning SW—magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetic field maps, considering a SW source surface of RSS = 2.5R⊙, aiming to predict the SW speed at the Lagrange‐1 (L1) point of the Sun‐Earth system. The input of our model consists of four PFSS magnetic field maps at RSS, which are three, four, five, and six days before the target epoch. Reduced maps are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetic field maps at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the quasi‐continuous test data set, which is generated by randomly assigning 120 data segments that are individually continuous in time, with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.53 ± 0.07 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 ± 4.8 km/s in an eight‐fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the SW, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Wind power prediction based on NGO-LSTM

Abstract At present, wind energy is mainly utilized through wind power grid connections. However, because of the uncertainty of wind energy, the grid connection will inevitably have an impact on the system. In order to adjust the grid dispatching plan in real time and improve the grid’s capacity to absorb wind power, a short-term wind speed prediction method based on NGO-LSTM was proposed. Taking the measured data of wind farms as an example, the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is compared with that of existing algorithms. Experimental results show that the R2 of the NGO-LSTM coupling model is closest to 1, and the RMSE, MAE, and MAPE are all smaller than the other two models, verifying the effectiveness and advanced nature of the proposed method.

Near-wake measurements and simulations of a floating wind turbine using a four-beam nacelle-based lidar

Recent advances in lidar technology have expanded the possibilities for measuring full-scale wind turbine wakes within the atmospheric boundary layer. This study utilizes a four-beam pulsed lidar installed on the nacelle of a floating turbine to measure the near-wake. The wake measurement campaign was conducted on the Floatgen, with lidar measurements reaching up to 2.5 times the rotor diameter distance. These measurements are presented as 10-minute average radial wind speeds. The focus of this study is on the below rated wind speed of 7 m/s. Free flow conditions were assumed at the farthest measurement points, which are located ±0.9 times the rotor diameter from to the rotor center. The sensitivity of lidar measurements to turbulence intensity, vertical wind shear, and significant wave height was investigated. The environmental conditions were categorized into five cases, considering turbulence, vertical shear, and yaw misalignment as well as waves. Two simulation models with different fidelity levels are used to simulate these cases, and the beam-wise radial wind speed predictions are compared with the measurements. A maximum mean absolute error of 11.3% between the measurements and simulations is observed.