Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change and increasing agricultural water demands, highlights the necessity for efficient irrigation management. This study focused on estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in watermelons under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions by integrating high-resolution satellite imagery and agro-meteorological data. Field experiments were conducted in Rutigliano, southern Italy, over a 2.80 ha area. ETa was measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique and predicted using machine learning models. Multispectral reflectance data from Planet SuperDove satellites and local meteorological records were used as predictors. Partial least squares, the generalized linear model and three machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, Elastic Net, and Support Vector Machine) were evaluated. Random Forest yielded the highest predictive accuracy with an average R2 of 0.74, RMSE of 0.577 mm, and MBE of 0.03 mm. Model interpretability was performed through permutation importance and SHAP, identifying the near-infrared and red spectral bands, average daily temperature, and relative humidity as key predictors. This integrated approach could provide a scalable, precise method for watermelon ETa estimation, supporting data-driven irrigation management and improving water use efficiency in Mediterranean horticultural systems.
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