Shifts In Precipitation Research Articles

Detailed Trend Analysis of Extreme Climate Indices in the Upper Geum River Basin

To investigate the recent effects of climate change in the upper Geum River basin in South Korea, a detailed trend analysis of 17 extreme climate indices based on 33 years (1988–2020) of daily precipitation, and daily (minimum and maximum) temperature data has been analyzed in this study. Out of the 17 extreme climate indices, nine (eight) indices were based on temperature (precipitation) data. Trend analysis based on detailed temporal scales (annual, seasonal, monthly) were performed through the Mann–Kendall trend test and the Theil–Sen slope method. Furthermore, the Mann–Whitney–Pettit test was also applied in this study, to detect abrupt changes in the extreme climate indices. Based on the results of this study, the climate conditions at the upper Geum River basin for the past three decades can be summarized as follows: general increase in temperature intensity, decrease in cold duration, increased heat duration, increased precipitation intensity, and increased consecutive wet and dry durations. Furthermore, a prolonged summer season (shorter spring, and autumn periods) and precipitation shifts, were detected based on trend analysis results of seasonal, and monthly time scales. The results presented in this study can provide supplementary data for improving watershed management strategies in the upper Geum River basin.

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN BAMENDA METROPOLIS, NORTH WEST REGION OF CAMEROON

Water resources within Bamenda continue to face climate related stress. This paper sought to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources in Bamenda metropolis. Questionnaires, field study and historic climatic data were used to evaluate effects of climatic variability and changes on water resources. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) scenarios were used to project climatic data. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to determine drought. Irregular rainfall and water shortage were the foremost challenges experienced by the population. Historic data showed an annual decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature. Precipitation shift and a low R-squared values (0.04 - 0.47) for precipitation indicated climatic variation. Decrease precipitation (gradient -11.84) coincided with the periods of droughts (1993 - 2019) given by the negative values of SPI (up to -3). The hydrological changes realised were 23 springs and 13 streams dry off and 27 springs and 16 streams have become seasonal. Projected data showed increase in precipitation and temperature, leaving Bamenda with the challenge of poor water quality that negatively affects public health and development. This study highlights the need to adopt current water and drought management practice in this area.

WETMETH 1.0: a new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models

Abstract. Wetlands are the single largest natural source of methane (CH4), a powerful greenhouse gas affecting the global climate. In turn, wetland CH4 emissions are sensitive to changes in climate conditions such as temperature and precipitation shifts. However, biogeochemical processes regulating wetland CH4 emissions (namely microbial production and oxidation of CH4) are not routinely included in fully coupled Earth system models that simulate feedbacks between the physical climate, the carbon cycle, and other biogeochemical cycles. This paper introduces a process-based wetland CH4 model (WETMETH) developed for implementation in Earth system models and currently embedded in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Here, we (i) describe the wetland CH4 model, (ii) evaluate the model performance against available datasets and estimates from the literature, and (iii) analyze the model sensitivity to perturbations of poorly constrained parameters. Historical simulations show that WETMETH is capable of reproducing mean annual emissions consistent with present-day estimates across spatial scales. For the 2008–2017 decade, the model simulates global mean wetland emissions of 158.6 Tg CH4 yr−1, of which 33.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 is from wetlands north of 45∘ N. WETMETH is highly sensitive to parameters for the microbial oxidation of CH4, which is the least constrained process in the literature.

Ecological maturity and stability of nematode communities in response to precipitation manipulations in grasslands

Climate change is predicted to cause alterations in precipitation patterns in grasslands around the globe. The implications of these changes for soil biota and multiple key ecosystem functions that they regulate in grasslands is little known. We used soil nematodes as biological indicators in grassland ecosystems experiencing large shifts in precipitation in an arid, semiarid, and mesic grasslands. By calculating the nematode plant parasite index, maturity index, and its extensions: the enrichment, basal, channel, and structure index, we assessed grassland ecosystem response to five levels of manipulated precipitation over the course of two years. Nematode community structure described by these indices was sensitive enough to reflect community changes from the altered precipitation treatments and responded uniquely at each of the three sites. With increasing precipitation, nematode communities at the arid site became more enriched in species and switched to a more fungal-dominated decomposition pathway. The semiarid site showed a decline in nematode maturity, structure, and fungally dominated decomposition, but greater levels of enrichment, basal resources, and herbivory. In the mesic site increasing precipitation led to a nematode community with greater maturity and structure and shifted toward a fungal decomposition channel that also reflected a lower level of enrichment and plant parasites. We performed an indicator analysis to identify nematode genera representative of each grassland site and precipitation level. Nematode indicator composition was found to be significantly affected by the levels of applied precipitation and across sites, highlighting specific genera that may be affected by future precipitation regimes such as Eucephalobus in the arid site or Trichodorus from the mesic site. Nematode community analysis allowed for the detection of strong influences on the soil food web caused from extreme and moderate precipitation manipulations. This finding stresses the need for more genera level studies to be done to reflect specific ecosystem responses to climate change as well as the need for more cross site studies as site-specific differences must be accounted for ecological interpretations.

Pacific Northwest Plants Record Multiannual Atmosphere–Ocean Circulation Patterns

AbstractCarbon isotope ecology can be used as a measure of plant water stress. Plant water stress is complicated: multiple factors (e.g., evapotranspiration rates, temperature, precipitation, soil texture, and available water) control the magnitude of the isotopic expression. Often, large ocean–atmosphere pressure systems result in the convergence of constructive climate parameters that result in increased plant water stress; for example, El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) anomaly phases. We examined the biogeochemistry of three species (Thuja plicata: with a Pacific coastal habitat, Thuja occidentalis: native to the Great Lakes region, and Populus tremuloides: a cosmopolitan species found throughout North America). Coincident analyses of these species allowed for intercomparison between plants in habitats directly impacted by atmospheric–oceanic controls on water availability and those out of Pacific impact range. There are oscillatory patterns in the carbon isotope discrimination values (Δ13Cleaf) of Thuja plicata, but no clear patterns in Δ13Cleaf values of the other species. We compare the pattern in isotope discrimination of T. plicata with Pacific‐driven multiannual environmental phenomena to determine whether these patterns could be related to the oscillation in Δ13Cleaf values. The data demonstrate a regular and significant 14‐ to 19‐year periodicity, aligning most closely with PDO climate patterns. Thuja plicata likely records prolonged stress, like plant available water shortages, which coincide with PDO‐associated shifts in precipitation, humidity, and evapotranspiration. These findings demonstrate that coastal Pacific ecosystems are vulnerable to changes in water availability connected to Pacific teleconnections, providing a new recording tool to examine multiannual climate anomalies.

Inter-annual and intra-annual variations in water quality and its response to water-level fluctuations in a river-connected lake, Dongting Lake, China.

The hydrological conditions of river-connected lakes are complex primarily owing to their considerable water-level fluctuations (WLFs). Water quality in such lakes varies with hydrodynamic variations; however, their relationship is not clear. To identify the unique relationship between water level and water quality in river-connected lakes, we used the comprehensive pollution index (CPI) and regression analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in water quality in Dongting Lake from 2015 to 2018 and the effects of water level on water quality. Four water quality parameters were selected: total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), permanganate index (CODMn), and chlorophyll a (Chl-a). The results showed significant spatial variation in the lake water quality, with relatively high concentrations of TN, TP, CODMn, and Chl-a in East Dongting Lake. TN and TP decreased by 12.15% and 37.61%, respectively, from 2015 to 2018, whereas CODMn increased from 1.781 to 2.009 mg/L. Seasonally, TN and TP concentrations were low in the summer and autumn, with high concentrations in the winter and spring. In contrast, CODMn and Chl-a concentrations exhibited opposite trends. The pollution level in Dongting Lake ranged between slightly and moderately polluted, with a CPI ranging from 0.76 to 1.32 across all sampling sites during 2015-2018. The water level in Dongting Lake initially increased and, then, decreased in a year, with marked WLFs owing to seasonal shifts in precipitation and human activities. The water level had significant negative relationships with TN and TP concentrations and a significant positive relationship with CODMn concentration (p < 0.05). Based on the results, strict control of excessive external nutrient loading should be actively implemented in Dongting Lake, in addition to hydrological regulation for effective lake water quality management.

De Novo Genome Assembly of the Electric Fish Brachyhypopomus occidentalis (Hypopomidae, Gymnotiformes).

The bluntnose knifefish Brachyhypopomus occidentalis is a primary freshwater fish from north-western South America and Lower Central America. Like other Gymnotiformes, it has an electric organ that generates electric discharges used for both communication and electrolocation. We assembled a high-quality reference genome sequence of B. occidentalis by combining Oxford Nanopore and 10X Genomics linked-reads technologies. We also describe its demographic history in the context of the rise of the Isthmus of Panama. The size of the assembled genome is 540.3 Mb with an N50 scaffold length of 5.4 Mb, which includes 93.8% complete, 0.7% fragmented, and 5.5% of missing vertebrate/Actinoterigie Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs. Repetitive elements account for 11.04% of the genome, and 34,347 protein-coding genes were predicted, of which 23,935 have been functionally annotated. Demographic analysis suggests a rapid effective population expansion between 3 and 5 Myr, corresponding to the final closure of the Isthmus of Panama (2.8–3.5 Myr). This event was followed by a sudden and constant population decline during the last 1 Myr, likely associated with strong shifts in both precipitation and sea level during the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. The de novo genome assembly of B. occidentalis will provide novel insights into the molecular basis of both electric signal productions and detection and will be fundamental for understanding the processes that have shaped the diversity of Neotropical freshwater environments.

A stable isotope record of late Quaternary hydrologic change in the northwestern Brooks Range, Alaska (eastern Beringia)

ABSTRACTA submillennial‐resolution record of lake water oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) from chironomid head capsules is presented from Burial Lake, northwest Alaska. The record spans the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20–16k cal a bp) to the present and shows a series of large lake δ18O shifts (~5‰). Relatively low δ18O values occurred during a period covering the LGM, when the lake was a shallow, closed‐basin pond. Higher values characterize deglaciation (~16–11.5k cal a bp) when the lake was still closed but lake levels were higher. A rapid decline between ~11 and 10.5k cal a bp indicates that lake levels rose to overflowing. Lake δ18O values are interpreted to reflect the combined effects of changes in lake hydrology, growing season temperature and meteoric source water as well as large‐scale environmental changes impacting this site, including opening of the Bering Strait and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns related to ice‐sheet dynamics. The results indicate significant shifts in precipitation minus evaporation across the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition, which are consistent with temporal patterns of vegetation change and paludification. This study provides new perspectives on the paleohydrology of eastern Beringia concomitant with human migration and major turnover in megafaunal assemblages.

Changing Pattern of Water Level Trends in Eurasian Endorheic Lakes as a Response to the Recent Climate Variability

Lake level is a sensitive integral indicator of climate change on regional scales, especially in enclosed endorheic basins. Eurasia contains the largest endorheic zone with several large terminal lakes, whose water levels recently underwent remarkable variations. To address the patterns of these variations and their links to the climate change, we investigated the variability of levels in 15 lakes of three neighboring endorheic regions—Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau, and Mongolian Plateau. Satellite altimetry revealed a heterogeneous pattern among the regions during 1992–2018: lake levels increased significantly in Central Asia and the Tibetan Plateau but decreased on the Mongolian Plateau. The shifts to the increasing trend were detected since 1997 in Central Asia, since 1998 in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau, and since 2005 in its northern part. The shift in air temperatures around 1997 and the precipitation shifts around 1998 and 2004 contributed to the trend’s turning points, with precipitation being the major contributor to the heterogeneous pattern of lake levels. Our findings reveal the linkage of the heterogeneous pattern of lake levels to climatic factors in the endorheic basins, providing a further understanding of the hydrological regime in the Eurasian endorheic zone and its sensitivity to climate change.

Meridional migration of Indian Ocean Monsoon precipitation during the early Holocene: Evidence from the Andaman Sea

The Holocene evolution of the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM), especially the spatiotemporal nature of its maximum precipitation period, remains controversial. Here we reconstruct high-resolution local δ18Osw and sea surface temperature (SST) values by pairing Mg/Ca values and the δ18O data from planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white) in the southern Andaman Sea in order to understand IOM rainfall variability during the Holocene. Local δ18Osw values show that local maximum rainfall occurred between 10.6 ka and 8.6 ka in the southern Andaman Sea, before declining markedly during the 8.6–5.0 ka period, and then decreasing slightly after 5.0 ka. The Mg/Ca-SST was relatively low during the 10.3–8.6 ka period, before increasing slightly between 8.6 ka and 4.0 ka; it declined thereafter. But the sedimentation rate at the site of Core ADM-C1 relating to monsoonal precipitation of the source region of sediments exhibited its highest value during the 8.6–5.5 ka period. After making further comparisons with other published records for this region, we would propose that maximum IOM precipitation during the early Holocene has exhibited a clearly meridional migration: it was located in the tropics around 7°N during the 10.6–8.6 ka period, migrated northward to the subtropics during the 8.6–5.5 ka period, before migrating southward again after 5.0 ka. We would suggest that the northward shift of maximum precipitation during the Early Holocene in the IOM region was in response to the progressively northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the change of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) activities.

Hydro-Meteorological Trends in an Austrian Low-Mountain Catchment

While ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when changes in the hydrological cycle are concerned. In this paper, we present hydro-meteorological trends based on observations from a hydrological research basin in Eastern Austria between 1979 and 2019. The analyzed variables include air temperature, precipitation, and catchment runoff. Additionally, the number of wet days, trends for catchment evapotranspiration, and computed potential evapotranspiration were derived. Long-term trends were computed using a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. The analysis shows that while mean annual temperatures were decreasing and annual temperature minima remained constant, annual maxima were rising. Long-term trends indicate a shift of precipitation to the summer, with minor variations observed for the remaining seasons and at an annual scale. Observed precipitation intensities mainly increased in spring and summer between 1979 and 2019. Catchment actual evapotranspiration, computed based on catchment precipitation and outflow, showed no significant trend for the observed time period, while potential evapotranspiration rates based on remote sensing data increased between 1981 and 2019.

The bacterial and fungal community composition in time and space in the nest mounds of the ant Formica exsecta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae).

In a subarctic climate, the seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and plant cover drive the temporal changes in the microbial communities in the topsoil, forcing soil microbes to adapt or decline. Many organisms, such as mound‐building ants, survive the cold winter owing to the favorable microclimate in their nest mounds. We have previously shown that the microbial communities in the nest of the ant Formica exsecta are significantly different from those in the surrounding bulk soil. In the current study, we identified taxa, which were consistently present in the nests over a study period of three years. Some taxa were also significantly enriched in the nest samples compared with spatially corresponding reference soils. We show that the bacterial communities in ant nests are temporally stable across years, whereas the fungal communities show greater variation. It seems that the activities of the ants contribute to unique biochemical processes in the secluded nest environment, and create opportunities for symbiotic interactions between the ants and the microbes. Over time, the microbial communities may come to diverge, due to drift and selection, especially given the long lifespan (up to 30 years) of the ant colonies.

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

AbstractClimate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean (Zea maysL. andGlycine maxMerr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteusGreef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (&gt;30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (&lt;10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

Incorporating adaptation and resilience into an integrated watershed and coral reef management plan.

Changing environmental conditions are forcing natural resource managers and communities to adapt their strategies to account for global shifts in precipitation, temperature, sea level and more, all of which are occurring in addition to local human impacts. Adapting to threats from climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management through the development of forward-looking “climate-smart” goals and strategies. Here we present a proof-of-concept application of a decision-support tool to help design climate-smart management actions for the watershed and coral reef management plan for Guánica Bay watershed in southwest Puerto Rico. We also explore the connection between adaptation planning and coral reef resilience, using a recently developed Puerto Rico-wide reef resilience assessment. In the first phase of the study, we used the publicly available Adaptation Design Tool to draft initial climate-smart versions of twelve proposed management actions. In the second phase, two actions (dirt road management on steep slopes, and coral reef restoration) were further refined through consultations with local experts to make more detailed design adjustments; this included the option to use information from the coral reef resilience assessment to inform design improvements. The first phase resulted in moderately detailed assessments that broadly accounted for anticipated direct and indirect effects of climate change on the planned management actions. The second phase resulted in more site-specific technical assessments and additional important design details. The expert panel charged with discussing climate-smart reef restoration around Guánica used the reef resilience assessment to guide discussion of reef restoration, highlighting the importance of having such information available for adaptation planning. This study demonstrates how climate change impacts can be effectively incorporated into a management plan at the most granular level of planning and how a structured, formalized process can be as valuable as the resulting adaptation information.

Enhanced terrestrial runoff during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 on the North Carolina Coastal Plain, USA

Abstract. A global increase in the strength of the hydrologic cycle drove an increase in the flux of terrigenous sediments into the ocean during the Cenomanian–Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2) and was an important mechanism driving nutrient enrichment and thus organic carbon burial. This global change is primarily known from isotopic records, but global average data do not tell us anything about changes at any particular location. Reconstructions of local terrigenous flux can help us understand the role of regional shifts in precipitation in driving these global trends. The proto-North Atlantic basin was one of the epicenters of enhanced organic carbon burial during OAE2, so constraining terrigenous flux is particularly important in this region; however, few local records exist. Here, we present two new OAE2 records from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA, recognized with calcareous nannoplankton biostratigraphy and organic carbon isotopes. We use carbon / nitrogen ratios to constrain the relative contribution of marine and terrestrial organic matter; in both cores we find an elevated contribution from vascular plants beginning just before OAE2 and continuing through the event, indicating a locally strengthened hydrologic cycle. Terrigenous flux decreased during the brief change in carbon isotope values known as the Plenus carbon isotope excursion; it then increased and remained elevated through the latter part of OAE2. Total organic carbon (TOC) values reveal relatively low organic carbon burial in the inner shelf, in contrast to black shales known from the open ocean. Organic carbon content on the shelf appears to increase in the offshore direction, highlighting the need for cores from the middle and outer shelf.

Radiative feedbacks on land surface change and associated tropical precipitation shifts

AbstractChanges in land surface albedo and land surface evaporation modulate the atmospheric energy budget by changing temperatures, water vapor, clouds, snow and ice cover, and the partitioning of surface energy fluxes. Here idealized perturbations to land surface properties are imposed in a global model to understand how such forcings drive shifts in zonal mean atmospheric energy transport and zonal mean tropical precipitation. For a uniform decrease in global land albedo, the albedo forcing and a positive water vapor feedback contribute roughly equally to increased energy absorption at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while radiative changes due to the temperature and cloud cover response provide a negative feedback and energy loss at TOA. Decreasing land albedo causes a northwards shift in the zonal mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The combined effects on ITCZ location of all atmospheric feedbacks roughly cancel for the albedo forcing; the total ITCZ shift is comparable to that predicted for the albedo forcing alone. For an imposed increase in evaporative resistance that reduces land evaporation, low cloud cover decreases in the northern mid-latitudes and more energy is absorbed at TOA there; longwave loss due to warming provides a negative feedback on the TOA energy balance and ITCZ shift. Imposed changes in land albedo and evaporative resistance modulate fundamentally different aspects of the surface energy budget. However, the pattern of TOA radiation changes due to the water vapor and air temperature responses are highly correlated for these two forcings because both forcings lead to near-surface warming.

Drought resistance and resilience: The role of soil moisture–plant interactions and legacies in a dryland ecosystem

Abstract In many regions of the world, climate change is projected to reduce water availability through changes in the hydrological cycle, including more frequent and intense droughts, as well as seasonal shifts in precipitation. In water‐limited ecosystems, such as drylands, lower soil water availability may exceed the adaptive capacity of many organisms, leading to cascading ecological effects during (concurrent effects) and after drought (legacy effects). The magnitude and duration of concurrent and legacy effects depends on drought intensity, duration and timing as well as the resistance and resilience of the ecosystem. Here, we investigated the effects of drought seasonality and plant community composition on two dominant perennial grasses, Achnatherum hymenoides (C3 photosynthesis) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C4 photosynthesis), in a dryland ecosystem. The experiment consisted of three precipitation treatments: control (ambient precipitation), cool‐season drought (−66% ambient precipitation November–April) and warm‐season drought (−66% ambient precipitation May–October), applied in two plant communities (perennial grasses with or without a large shrub, Ephedra viridis) over a 3‐year period. We examined the concurrent and legacy effects of seasonal drought on soil moisture, phenology and biomass. Drought treatments had strong concurrent and legacy effects on soil moisture, which impacted the phenology and biomass of the two grasses. Drought reduced growing season length by delaying green‐up (cool‐season drought) or advancing senescence (warm‐season drought) and reduced biomass for both species. Biomass and phenology legacy effects from drought emerged in the second and third years of the experiment. While we observed differential sensitivity to drought legacies between the two grasses, we found limited evidence that shrub presence had interactive effects with the drought treatment. Synthesis. The results from this study highlight how abiotic and biotic legacies can develop and influence a community's resistance and resilience to subsequent droughts. When the frequency of repeated extreme events, such as recurring seasonal droughts, exceeds the capacity of organisms or ecosystems to recover (i.e. resilience), persistent drought legacies can reduce the resistance to subsequent drought events. Overall, these results highlight how drought legacies are a product of ecological resistance and resilience to past drought and can influence ecosystem vulnerability to future droughts.

Future Changes to El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability and it exerts a strong influence on many remote regions of the world, for example in northern North America. Here, we examine future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector and investigate the mechanisms involved. We find that the positive temperature anomalies over Alaska and northern North America that are associated with an El Niño event in the present day are much weaker, or of the opposite sign, in the CMIP6 abrupt 4×CO2 experiments for almost all models (22 out of 26, of which 15 are statistically significant differences). This is largely related to changes to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, rather than differences in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using a barotropic model, run with different background circulation basic states and Rossby wave source forcing patterns from the individual CMIP6 models, we find that changes to the forcing from the equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more important than changes in the global basic state background circulation. By further decomposing this forcing change into changes associated with the longitude and magnitude of ENSO precipitation anomalies, we demonstrate that the projected overall eastward shift of ENSO precipitation is the main driver of the temperature teleconnection change, rather than the increase in magnitude of El Niño precipitation anomalies which are, nevertheless, seen in the majority of models.

Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen-to-phosphorus stoichiometry in cold region agricultural streams.

Cold agricultural regions are getting warmer and experiencing shifts in precipitation patterns, which affect hydrological transport of nutrients through reduced snowpack and higher annual proportions of summer rainfall. Previous work has demonstrated that the timing of phosphorus (P) concentrations is regionally coherent in streams of the northern Great Plains, suggesting a common climatic driver. There has been less investigation into patterns of stream nitrogen (N), despite its importance for water quality. Using high-frequency water quality data collected over 6 yr from three southern Manitoba agricultural streams, the goal of this research was to investigate seasonal patterns in N and P concentrations and the resultant impacts of these patterns on N/P stoichiometry. In the spring, high concentrations of inorganic N were associated with snowmelt runoff, while summer N was dominated by organic forms; inorganic N concentrations remained consistently low in the summer, suggesting increased biological N transformation and N removal. Relationships between N concentration and discharge showed generally weak model fits (r2 values for significant relationships ranging from .33 to .48), and the strength and direction of model fits differed among streams, seasons, and forms of N. Dissolved organic N concentrations were strongly associated with dissolved organic carbon. Nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios varied among streams but were significantly lower during summer storm events (p<.0001). These results suggest that climate-driven shifts in temperature and precipitation may negatively affect downstream water quality in this region.

Soil Carbon Isotope Values and Paleoprecipitation Reconstruction

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change has significant impacts at the ecosystem scale including widespread drought, flooding, and other natural disasters related to precipitation extremes. To contextualize modern climate change, scientists often look to ancient climate changes, such as shifts in ancient precipitation ranges. Previous studies have used fossil leaf organic geochemistry and paleosol inorganic chemistry as paleoprecipitation proxies, but have largely ignored the organic soil layer, which acts as a bridge between aboveground biomass and belowground inorganic carbon accumulation, as a potential recorder of precipitation. We investigate the relationship between stable carbon isotope values in soil organic matter (δ13CSOM) and a variety of seasonal and annual climate parameters in modern ecosystems and find a statistically significant relationship between δ13CSOM values and mean annual precipitation (MAP). After testing the relationship between actual and reconstructed precipitation values in modern systems, we test this potential paleoprecipitation proxy in the geologic record by comparing precipitation values reconstructed using δ13CSOM to other reconstructed paleoprecipitation estimates from the same paleosols. This study provides a promising new proxy that can be applied to ecosystems post‐Devonian (∼420 Ma) to the Miocene (∼23 Ma), and in mixed C3/C4 ecosystems in the geologic record with additional paleobotanical and palynological information. It also extends paleoprecipitation reconstruction to more weakly developed paleosol types, such as those lacking B‐ horizons, than previous inorganic proxies and is calibrated for wetter environments.