Abstract
AbstractClimate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean (Zea maysL. andGlycine maxMerr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteusGreef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.
Highlights
Closed surface depressions in agricultural fields are subfield scale topographic features where temporary, seasonal, or semipermanent ponds may form (Martin et al, 2019; Stewart & Kantrud, 1971; Upadhyay et al, 2018)
This study quantified the effects of multiple future precipitation scenarios on pothole ponding and the resulting yields of a conventional corn/soybean rotation and alternative miscanthus management
It is important to understand the influence of potholes on yield since their extent will grow with a changing climate and increasing precipitation trends in the early growing season
Summary
Closed surface depressions in agricultural fields (i.e., farmed potholes) are subfield scale topographic features where temporary, seasonal, or semipermanent ponds may form (Martin et al, 2019; Stewart & Kantrud, 1971; Upadhyay et al, 2018) These depressions characterize the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Upper Midwest United States, which extends from central Iowa, northwest to Alberta, Canada, and covers more than 70 Mha, with individual depressions ranging anywhere from 1 to over 6 ha in size (Martin et al, 2019; Miller et al, 2009; van der Valk, 2005; van Meter & Basu, 2015). In 2011 alone, floods in farm fields of the Midwestern United States resulted in $1.6 billion worth of losses in corn and soybean production (Bailey-Serres et al, 2012)
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