Increase In Precipitation Research Articles

How does greening affect the surface water budget in the Loess Plateau?

Significant vegetation increase in the Loess Plateau (LP) of China could strongly affect the surface water budget. Through the WRF model with the Water Vapor Tracer (WVT) method tracking moisture within the LP, this study conducted three sets of experiments from 1999 to 2018 with GLASS Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) data. The results indicate that vegetation has a critical role in partitioning evapotranspiration (ET) into transpiration (Et), canopy evaporation (Ecan), and soil evaporation (Edir), thus regulating terrestrial internal convective precipitation (P). The local P response largely depends on external P (E_P), while the internal P (I_P) contribution remains minor. In summer, the total wet difference of I_P in the LP is about 0.03 mm/day, almost 5 times that of E_P. Greening also causes surface runoff reduction. Thus, in spring and summer, surface water storage (W) decreases due to the greater increase in ET than in P. In autumn, W increases by about 0.06 mm/day due to a large decrease in Ecan, implying confining the increased W to shallower soils, resulting in accelerated loss of deep soil moisture. The greening trend of 2000–2018 contributed to an increase in I_P, which could not offset increased ET and reduced E_P, leading to terrestrial water storage reduction.

Effect of Mo addition on microstructure and mechanical properties of Cu-12.5Ni-5Sn alloy

Cu-12.5Ni-5Sn-xMo (x=0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 wt%) alloys were prepared using Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) technology. The effect of Mo addition on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Cu-12.5Ni-5Sn alloy was investigated. The results indicate that adding trace amounts of Mo significantly refines the grain structure of Cu-12.5Ni-5Sn alloy, attributed to the formation of Mo-rich phases. Mo addition also inhibited the growth of discontinuous precipitation (DP) after aging treatment, reducing the DP volume fraction from approximately 25 % to 6 %. This effect is attributed to the precipitation of micron-sized Mo-rich phases at grain boundaries, which inhibit DP nucleation and growth by occupying γ-phase nucleation sites and pinning grain boundaries, thus impeding grain boundary diffusion. In addition, the interlamellar spacing of the discontinuous precipitation increases and the growth rate of lamellae decreases with increasing Mo content. Furthermore, an optimized combination of hardness (310 HB) and yield strength (586 MPa) was achieved in the Cu-12.5Ni-5Sn-1.0Mo alloy after aging treatment.

Runoff concentration decline for Tarim river due to a dramatic increasing of runoff in cold season and hydro-junction regulation: Past and future

Study regionThe three headwaters of Tarim river, south of the Xinjiang Province, China. Study focusTemporal runoff concentration variations are crucial for water resources utilization and management, particularly in arid regions. In this study, the runoff concentration in the Tarim River Basin is studied based on analysis of the trend, abrupt changes, and periodicity, identifying key extreme climate indices influencing the Gini-runoff coefficient and predicting its future changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). New hydrological insights for the regionFrom 1962–2020, the Gini-runoff coefficient decreased by 8.3 %, while annual runoff increased by 14.2 %. This is attributed to temperature changes, escalating hydrological risk uncertainty. The anomaly of low geopotential high fields and Central Asian anticyclones have caused an increase in total cloud cover (TCC) and precipitation, and a decrease in the Daily Temperature Range (DTR). Increasing of Warm nights (TN90), Maximum Tmax (TXx), and Hot nights (TR) have enhanced the warm-season runoff. However, the climatic impact on warm-season runoff is less pronounced than that in the cold season, which led to the runoff concentration decline. Changes in hydro-junction regulation led to decrease of Gini-runoff coefficient by 12.11 % from 2001 to 2020 along the Hotan river. Under the three SSP scenarios, the average Gini-runoff coefficient for the Aksu and Hotan rivers are expected to decrease by 3.3 % and 2.6 %, respectively.

Research for the Enhanced Oil Recovery Mechanism of Heavy Oil after Composite Huff and Puff Assisted by Edge-Bottom Water Displacement

Abstract In the late stage of exploiting heavy oil reservoirs with edge-bottom water, we are faced with problems such as high crude oil viscosity, channeling of bottom water, and rapid rise in water cut. To clarify the synergistic effect of N2, CO2, N2 foam, and viscosity reducer in water control and oil increase, and solve the problem of edge-bottom water rushing into production wells, one-dimensional sand-pack huff and puff experiments were carried out. First, the N2 foam huff and puff experiment evaluated the effect of N2 foam on controlling bottom water. Then the viscosity reducer assisted CO2 huff and puff experiment analyzed the synergistic viscosity reduction ability between the two to mobilize the remaining heavy oil. Next, the N2 foam-viscosity reducer-CO2 huff and puff experiment clarified the synergistic effect between the three. Finally, the N2 foam-viscosity reducer-CO2-N2 huff and puff experiment solved the problem of insufficient reservoir energy based on synergistic precipitation and oil increase. Experimental results show that N2 foam-viscosity reducer-CO2-N2 huff and puff is the optimal water control and oil increase solution. This solution can significantly reduce water production and increase oil production. In the one-dimensional sand-pack experiment, this technical solution reduced the water content by 68% and increased the recovery rate by 16.09%. The research results provide a reference for the development of exploitation technology schemes for similar edge-bottom water heavy oil reservoirs after entering high water cut.

Characteristics and Indicative Significance of Groundwater Stable Isotopes in the Loess Plateau at the Regional Scale

Regional groundwater recharge is a critical scientific issue for sustainable groundwater resource development and management. However, spatial variations in groundwater recharge in the Loess Plateau （LP） remain poorly understood. To fill this knowledge gap, a systematic sampling campaign and stable isotope analysis were carried out for groundwater （shallow aquifer） in 13 major catchments during July 2019. The main objectives of this study were： ① to understandthe spatial distribution and influencing factors of stable isotopes in groundwater and ② to reveal the groundwater recharge sources and pathways and their spatial variations, combined with the precipitation stable isotope datasets. Stable isotopes in groundwater had poor spatial variations at the regional scale； however, they became isotopically depleted with the increase in annual average precipitation on the catchment scale （r = -0.87）. Compared with the stable isotope of precipitation, stable isotopes of groundwater were generally depleted and were similar to the precipitation of the rainy season （July-September）. These together indicated that there was pronounced seasonality of groundwater recharge, and the main recharge period was the rainy season. In particular, the recharge seasonality index （δP/G） was closely related to the catchment's average annual precipitation （r = -0.77） and leaf area index （r = -0.63）. In addition, groundwater lc-excess was generally negative, with the catchment-mean value ranging from -4.3‰ to -0.7‰. Hydrologically, this indicated that groundwater recharge pathways （ratio of matrix flow vs. preferential flow） were different among these catchments, which should be quantitatively determined by combining the saturated zone （groundwater） and the unsaturated zone （soil） in future work. Our findings can improve the understanding of groundwater recharge in LP and provide a scientific basis for sustainable management of groundwater resources at the regional scale.

Plant functional trait is a strong predictor of ecosystem productivity under altered precipitation in desert steppes

AbstractThe relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem function has always been one of the hot issues in the field of ecology. With the acceleration of global warming, the precipitation pattern has become one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss, which has a profound impact on ecosystem functional services and stability. However, the studies on the effects and mechanisms of plant community diversity and ecosystem productivity under precipitation changes in desert steppe are still unclear. According to the change rate (−41.1% to 39.2%) of precipitation in the study area in recent 50 years, five precipitation gradients (i.e., −40%, −20%, CK, +20% and +40%) were set to simulate the possible future precipitation pattern changes. Aboveground biomass increased with the increase of precipitation. Compared with CK, the aboveground biomass increased by 22.81% with +40% and decreased by 80.71% with −40%, and the negative impact of precipitation decrease on aboveground biomass was more significant. Through multiple stepwise regression analyses, species diversity, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity were identified as the best models of aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass changes could be explained by 51.3%, 81.6%, 32.6% and 60% respectively. Combined with plant community diversity, the final index model was obtained through multiple stepwise regression analyses, which could explain 88.3% of changes in aboveground biomass. In this model, The average coefficient of specific leaf area and leaf thickness had a very high significance level, and these two functional traits of dominant species had a greater explanatory power for ecosystem system function. There was a nonlinear correlation between precipitation and aboveground biomass, and drought had a more significant negative effect on aboveground biomass. Compared with species diversity and phylogenetic diversity, plant functional traits can better explain ecosystem productivity. Selection effects are the main maintenance mechanism of desert steppe community productivity under the background of precipitation change.

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Quantitative analysis of the sensitivity and spatial stratified heterogeneity of extreme precipitation across river basins

Global warming is expected to lead to a continuous increase in extreme precipitation. However, the response of extreme precipitation to climate change remains not entirely clear. This study quantitatively analyzes extreme precipitation in multiple river basins of China over the past nearly 60 years using high spatial resolution data. Both extreme precipitation and mean precipitation exhibit a spatial distribution pattern of higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. However, their sensitivity to temperature shows an asymmetric spatial pattern, with higher sensitivity in the northwest and lower sensitivity in the southeast. Overall, the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature (9.6 %/K) is 1.1 times that of mean precipitation (8.8 %/K). Additionally, the sensitivity of extreme precipitation in relatively dry areas (Continental River Basin) is about five times that in relatively wet areas (other river basins). Vegetation has the highest explanatory power (i.e., q-value) for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of extreme precipitation, ranging from 0.61 to 0.72, with the explanatory power of natural factors exceeding that of societal factors. Furthermore, the interaction between vegetation and elevation enhances the explanatory power for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of extreme precipitation, reaching values between 0.74 and 0.82.

The Relationship between Extreme Precipitation and Damaging Floods in the Northeastern United States

Abstract The northeastern United States has experienced an increase in extreme precipitation over the last three decades, which has substantial implications for flooding. However, the relationship between extreme precipitation and societally relevant flooding in the Northeast is not well understood. Here, we investigate the association between precipitation, antecedent wetness, and damage-producing warm-season (June–November) flood reports in the Northeast, 1996–2020. We employ 4-km gridded daily precipitation data aggregated to the county scale to calculate 1- and 3-day precipitation and a standardized precipitation index at multiple time scales. From these, we determine extreme precipitation and extreme antecedent wetness thresholds to identify hydroclimatic extreme events and relate them to damaging flood occurrences from the NOAA Storm Events Database. We find that damaging floods frequently occur with relatively high precipitation and antecedent wetness, although there are exceptions in several counties. However, the majority (54%) of damaging floods are not associated with extreme precipitation or extreme antecedent wetness, and more than 90% of hydroclimatic extreme events are not associated with floods. We explore limitations to the definitions of extreme precipitation and extreme antecedent wetness by varying the threshold. Lower hydroclimatic extreme event thresholds not only have a greater likelihood of being associated with damaging floods but also have a greater number of hydroclimatic extreme events not associated with a damaging flood; the opposite holds for higher thresholds. We address these challenges by combining precipitation and antecedent wetness to identify coordinated thresholds that best capture damaging flooding in each county.

High nitrate and sulfate leaching in response to wetter winters in temperate beech forests

Climate models project moderate to large increases in air temperature for most temperate ecosystems with an overall increase in winter precipitation and a shift from snow towards rain. We investigated the effects of increased winter rainfall on the ecosystem functioning of European beech forests at their north-eastern distribution range. In a large-scale field experiment we manipulated winter climate at nine forest sites by increasing the amount of rainfall and excluding snow. Nutrient availability in the topsoil and leaching in 50 cm depth as well as litter decomposition and radial growth of mature European beech trees were analysed. It was hypothesized that (1) wetter winters lead to increased nutrient deposition as well as leaching, with an overall increase in net nutrient availability, (2) decomposition decreases in response to water addition containing also additional nutrients and (3) primary production during the subsequent growing season increases as presumably not all additionally available nutrients would be leached. We found an increase in topsoil nitrate and sulfate availability during winter in response to rain addition, likely as a consequence of collecting more atmospheric deposition, and surprisingly high leaching rates of the additionally available nutrients. During the subsequent early growing season, no difference in nutrient availability could be observed anymore. Enhanced nutrient availability in the topsoil and leaching do not seem to have a strong short-term influence on forest ecosystem processes in ecosystems which are close to their critical load of N deposition. Decomposition rates during winter and early growing season as well as stem diameter growth during the following growing season were not influenced. This indicates that additional nutrients in the topsoil in response to wetter winters are not available for plant growth but pollute ground- and surface waters.

Trends in extreme rainfall and their relationship to flooding episodes in Vhembe district, South Africa

Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, are being increased by climate change in various regions, and such events often cause floods. This study examined the trends and variability of extreme rainfall indices using daily rainfall data (1981–2023) from three study sites at different socio-economic development spectra in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. The analyses focus on indices such as the annual total rainfall from wet days (PRCPTOT), the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), annual maximum 1-day and 5-day rainfall (RX1 day and RX5 day), the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), the number of days exceeding varying amounts of precipitation (R10, R20, R40) and the annual number of wet days with rainfall greater than the 95th and 99th percentile (R95p and R99p) of the 1981–2023 daily rainfall. We discuss the observed trends in extreme rainfall indices in light of the actual flood occurrences to establish linkages. Several statistically significant and marginal changes in extreme rainfall trends were identified and provided key insights into reported flooding events in the district—flooding episodes were mainly attributed to the significant increases in total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and rainfall exceeding the 99th percentile of daily rainfall (R99p). Other significant contributors were declining CDD and increasing RX1day at Duthuni, increasing R40 at Musina as well as increasing R1 and declining CDD at Sane. However, the low altitude, urbanization, poor waste management and inadequate drainage systems were among the key non-climatic drivers of flood risk across the study sites, but these warrant further investigation. The complex interplay between climatic and non-climatic drivers of flood risk underscores the importance of localized climate studies and the need for adaptive strategies to minimize loss and damage. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into localized extreme rainfall trends, which are essential for developing site-specific flood mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, such initiatives require placing vulnerable communities at the centre in order to develop solutions that are locally led and relevant.

Combined impacts of aerosols and urbanization on a highly threatened extreme precipitation event in Beijing, China

On July 21, 2012, a catastrophic precipitation event occurred in Beijing, highlighting the serious threat of extreme precipitation on socio-economic development and human health under climate change. Nevertheless, whether, how and to what extent aerosols and urbanization, as the two main influencing factors of urban extreme precipitation, have affected this highly damaging extreme event remains largely unexplored. Here, we employed the weather research and forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a single-layer urban canopy model to investigate the influences of urbanization, aerosols and their interactions on this extreme precipitation event. We found that the joint intensification effects of urbanization and aerosols on extreme precipitation events greatly enhance its negative influence on megacities. The results indicate that aerosols are enhanced by increasing cloud droplet numbers, thereby intensifying the feedback between precipitation and latent heating. Consequently, the total precipitation increased by 22.6%, raising the precipitation in the Beijing area increase by at least 50 mm. By stimulating atmospheric instability and strengthening vertical air motion (over 0.25 m s−1), the urban heat island effect considerably influences the temporal and spatial distributions of extreme precipitation events, resulting in an increase in warm cloud precipitation (80%) and a decrease (30%) in frontal precipitation. Consequently, joint intensification effects resulted in more concentrated precipitation in the southwest of Beijing, leading to a substantial increase (more than 40%, ∼80 mm). This condition may be an important reason for the most severe disasters in the southwest of Beijing.

Examining the evolution of extreme precipitation event using reanalysis and the observed datasets along the Western Ghats

AbstractIn recent decades, India has witnessed an increase in the intensity, frequency, and spread of extreme weather events. The widespread increase in extreme precipitation over the Western Coast of India is a matter of great concern. The factors contributing to such devastating extreme precipitation remain unclear due to the variability present in meteorological and oceanic variables and associated large‐scale circulations. Using reanalysis and observed datasets, we attempted to identify a combination of dynamic, thermodynamic, and cloud microphysics processes contributing to the anomalous precipitation from August 1 to 10, 2019 against its climatology. Our key findings highlight the crucial role of warm sea surface temperatures (anomaly >1.4°C), outgoing longwave radiation (anomaly <−50 W·m−2), and atmospheric temperature (anomaly over the ocean is >1.6°C) in enhancing the moisture‐holding capacity of the atmosphere by almost 10%. This elevated moisture, propelled by intensified low‐level winds (anomalies exceeding 4 m·s−1), leads to a shift from ocean to land. Notably, we observe that vertical updrafts (anomalies >−0.4 m·s−1) contribute to increased atmospheric instability and moisture convergence. The presence of an ample amount of cloud hydrometeors, with anomalies surpassing 2.5 × 10−4 kg·kg−1, establishes conditions conducive to sustained intense precipitation. Our findings deepen our understanding of the complex relationships between ocean and atmospheric dynamics, and wind patterns, and emphasize their pivotal influence on regional weather patterns and land surface hydrology.

Potential adaptation of scleractinian coral Pocillopora damicornis during hypo-salinity stress caused by extreme pre-flood rainfall over south China

Global warming intensifies the water cycle, resulting in significant increases in precipitation and river runoff, which brings severe hypo-salinity stress to nearshore coral reefs. Ecological investigations have found that some corals exhibit remarkable adaptability to hypo-salinity stress during mass-bleaching events. However, the exact cause of this phenomenon remains unclear. To elucidate the potential molecular mechanism leading to high tolerance to hypo-salinity stress, Pocillopora damicornis was used as a research object in this study. We compared the differences in transcriptional responses and symbiotic microbiomes between bleaching and unbleaching P. damicornis during hypo-salinity stress caused by extreme pre-flood rainfall over South China in 2022. The results showed that: (1) Under hypo-salinity stress, the coral genes related to immune defense and cellular stress were significantly upregulated in bleaching corals, indicating more severe immune damage and stress, and the Symbiodiniaceae had no significant gene enrichment. Conversely, metabolic genes related to glycolysis/gluconeogenesis were significantly downregulated in unbleaching corals, whereas Symbiodiniaceae genes related to oxidative phosphorylation were significantly upregulated to meet the energy requirements of coral holobiont; (2) C1d was the dominant Symbiodiniaceae subclade in all samples, with no significant difference between the two groups; (3) The symbiotic bacterial community structure was reorganized under hypo-salinity stress. The abundance of opportunistic bacteria increased significantly in bleaching coral, whereas the relative abundance of probiotics was higher in unbleaching coral. This may be due to severe immune damage, making the coral more susceptible to opportunistic infection and bleaching. These results suggest that long-term hypo-salinity acclimation in the Pearl River Estuary enhances the tolerance of some corals to hypo-salinity stress. Corals with higher tolerance may reduce energy consumption by slowing down their metabolism, improve the energy metabolism of Symbiodiniaceae to meet the energy requirements of the coral holobiont, and alter the structure of symbiotic bacterial communities to avoid bleaching.

Shifts in Structure and Assembly Processes of Root Endophytic Community Caused by Climate Warming and Precipitation Increase in Alpine Grassland.

Climate change poses great challenges to the survival of plants. Plant endophytes play important roles in improving plant adaptability. However, our knowledge of the effects of climate change on endophytic community structures is limited. Relying on a field experimental platform simulating climate warming, precipitation increases, and their combination in an alpine grassland, the root endophytic bacterial community structures and assembly processes of three coexisting plant species (Elymus nutans, Kobresia humilis, and Melissilus ruthenicus) were measured. The results indicated that Proteobacteria was the dominant phylum, with a relative abundance ranging from 50% to 80%, followed by Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes. Bacterial diversity decreased significantly under the combined treatment for all three plant species, with the largest reduction observed in E. nutans. The climate manipulation treatments had a minimal effect on the endophytic bacterial community structures. The relative abundance of Burkholderiaceae increased significantly under the combined treatment for the three plant species. Moreover, the endophytic community assembly processes changed from stochastic dominated under control plots to deterministic dominated under the combined plots for E. nutans, while this shift was reversed for M. ruthenicus. The root endophytic bacterial community was affected by the soil's available nitrogen and stoichiometric ratio. These results revealed that the sensitivity of endophyte community structures to climate change varies with host plant species, which has implications for plant fitness differences.

Understanding the response of tropical overturning circulations to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing

Abstract While observational records provide evidence for strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation and the boreal winter Hadley cell (HC) over the last few decades, the underlying causes are not well understood. This study investigates the radiative effects of CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols on regional variations in the intensity of tropical meridional (Hadley-like) and zonal (Walker-like) overturning circulations, based on a suite of experiments using the IITM Earth System Model (IITM-ESM) along with supplementary analysis of observed and reanalysis datasets. Two key findings emerge from our study (i) strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation with enhanced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and precipitation increase over the tropical Indo-Pacific, in response to global warming via ocean-atmosphere coupled feedbacks (ii) aerosol-induced intensification of regional meridional overturning circulation over the (0 − 120◦E) longitudinal domain resulting from inter hemispheric energy imbalance and southward shift of the southern hemispheric (SH) rainfall belt extending eastward from Africa across the Indian Ocean. Our results suggest that the combined radiative influence of increased CO2 and northern hemispheric (NH) anthropogenic aerosols reinforces the regional meridional overturning circulation, by enhancing convection over the SH and promoting widespread descent over the NH subtropics and mid-latitudes covering northern Africa, Mediterranean, parts of middle-East, West and South Asia. The present findings have important implications for the regional water resources, agriculture and environment.

Unveiling the future water pulse of central asia: a comprehensive 21st century hydrological forecast from stochastic water balance modeling

This study uses a new dataset on gauge locations and catchments to assess the impact of 21st-century climate change on the hydrology of 221 high-mountain catchments in Central Asia. A steady-state stochastic soil moisture water balance model was employed to project changes in runoff and evaporation for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, compared to the baseline period of 1979–2011. Baseline climate data were sourced from CHELSA V21 climatology, providing daily temperature and precipitation for each subcatchment. Future projections used bias-corrected outputs from four General Circulation Models under four pathways/scenarios (SSP1 RCP 2.6, SSP2 RCP 4.5, SSP3 RCP 7.0, SSP5 RCP 8.5). Global datasets informed soil parameter distribution, and glacier ablation data were integrated to refine discharge modeling and validated against long-term catchment discharge data. The atmospheric models predict an increase in median precipitation between 5.5% to 10.1% and a rise in median temperatures by 1.9 °C to 5.6 °C by the end of the 21st century, depending on the scenario and relative to the baseline. Hydrological model projections for this period indicate increases in actual evaporation between 7.3% to 17.4% and changes in discharge between + 1.1% to –2.7% for the SSP1 RCP 2.6 and SSP5 RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the most extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), discharge increases of 3.8% and 5.0% are anticipated during the first and second future periods, followed by a decrease of -2.7% in the third period. Significant glacier wastage is expected in lower-lying runoff zones, with overall discharge reductions in parts of the Tien Shan, including the Naryn catchment. Conversely, high-elevation areas in the Gissar-Alay and Pamir mountains are projected to experience discharge increases, driven by enhanced glacier ablation and delayed peak water, among other things. Shifts in precipitation patterns suggest more extreme but less frequent events, potentially altering the hydroclimate risk landscape in the region. Our findings highlight varied hydrological responses to climate change throughout high-mountain Central Asia. These insights inform strategies for effective and sustainable water management at the national and transboundary levels and help guide local stakeholders.

Relationship between interannual variability of the north edge of the East Asian summer monsoon and extreme precipitation in North China

The north edge of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is defined by using the isoline with average total column water vapor (TCWV) equal to 25 mm, and the relationship between the north edge of the EASM and summer extreme precipitation in North China (NC) from 1961 to 2020 is discussed. Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method is used to cluster extreme precipitation in the abnormal years of the north edge in NC, and the circulation characteristics of different types of extreme precipitation are discussed. The results show that the north edge of the EASM is closely related to extreme precipitation in NC. When the north edge is northerly, both the frequency and total amount of extreme precipitation increase significantly in the monsoon marginal zone. Based on different monsoon circulation background, summer extreme precipitation events in NC are divided into four categories, namely, the central type and southern type in the northerly years of north edge, and the central type and eastern type in the southerly years of north edge. The occurrence of different types of extreme precipitation is closely related to the different characteristics of local trough, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and wave trains in the middle and high latitudes. Specifically, the central type extreme precipitation is affected by the mid-latitude wave train in the northerly years of north edge. As for the central type extreme precipitation in the southerly years of north edge, both high-latitude and mid-latitude wave trains transfer from west to east and converge over NC. However, the wave disturbance energy is relatively weak, leading to the extreme precipitation with weak intensity.

The changing rainfall patterns drive the growing flood occurrence in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Study regionUrban flooding is an intensifying issue in the rapidly developing lowland cities of Southeast Asia. Cambodia’s Phnom Penh City, located at the confluence of the Mekong and Tonle Sap Rivers in the lower Mekong Basin, recently saw increasingly prevalent flash floods, resulting in casualties and damages. Study focusWhile flood planning and impact assessments have been done in the Mekong basin, flood causes in the face of climate change remain insufficiently understood. In this paper, the drivers of the increasingly prevalent floods in Phnom Penh are investigated through analysis of remote sensing and instrumental data. New hydrological insights for the regionWith precipitation records from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation and gauge station dataset, a general precipitation increase of 7 mm/year and a notable shift to a wetter regime were observed. Strong periodicities of 1/3-year, 1/2-year, 1-year and ∼5-year cycles were also identified, which generally showed a considerable increase in intensity from 1981 to 2021. Over the past 40 years, precipitation patterns have intensified. Yet, the average water levels of the rivers surrounding Phnom Penh have declined by 1–2 m from 1981 to 2021, indicating the pressure from climate change is a major hydrological driver contributing to Phnom Penh's flash floods. Meanwhile, Phnom Penh's vulnerability to flash flooding is also likely aggravated by drastic land use changes, which have increased the city's impervious surfaces and reduced its wetlands by 30 % since the 1980s.

Spatio-temporal variations and multi-scale correlations of climate, water, land, and vegetation resources over the past four decades in the Heihe River Basin

Study regionHeihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China. Study focusThe study proposes an analytical scheme to identify trend, periodicity, and scale-correlation in climate, water, land, and vegetation resources over the past four decades using multivariate remote sensing data. New hydrological insights for the regionHeat and precipitation resources in the HRB have increased at rates of 14.27℃ yr−1 and 1.26 mm yr−1, respectively. The glacier area has decreased by 47.47 %. Additionally, the increase in upstream precipitation (2.82 mm yr−1) and glacier meltwater effectively replenishes runoff, soil water, and groundwater. The implementation of the ecological water diversion project (EWDP) in 2000 has contributed to enhancing runoff and lake storage capacity. The 9.28 % increase in vegetation cover (including cropland, forest, grassland, and shrubland) indicates an improvement in the hydrothermal conditions of the HRB. Additionally, the magnitude and direction of interactions among various natural resources vary across multiple spatial scales and time scales. The effect of hydrothermal coupling on vegetation is more prominent at the interdecadal scale. Vegetation growth in the upstream area is primarily influenced by thermal condition, while moisture plays a significant role in the midstream and downstream areas. Knowledge from this study contributes to the informed allocation of natural resources and offer policymakers valuable insights to enhance eco-environmental sustainability.