Projections of temperature and precipitation changes in Xinjiang from 2021 to 2050 based on the CMIP6 model.

Abstract

Xinjiang is one of the most sensitive regions in China in terms of its response to climate change. Against the background of global warming, analyses and predictions using different scenarios for Xinjiang should be conducted. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and trends of future temperature and precipitation trends should be considered to provide a scientific basis for the government to respond to future climate change. In this paper, using the CN05.1 dataset and seven models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, the delta downscaling method is used to predict the temperature and precipitation changes in Xinjiang Province from 2021 to 2050 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that (1) most models of CMIP6 have a good effect on temperature simulation in Xinjiang, and the mean values as well as the trends of the temperatures expressed by the multi-model ensemble averaging are in good agreement with the observed data and have a high degree of confidence. The observed precipitation increase rate is significantly higher than that predicted by the model, and the simulation results of each model overestimate the precipitation. (2) The mean annual temperatures in the Xinjiang region increase at rates of 0.32°C/10 a, 0.46°C/10 a, 0.47°C/10 a and 0.67°C/10 a, respectively, under the four scenarios. The rates of temperature increase in the four seasons exhibit the following pattern: autumn > summer > spring > winter. (3) From 2021 to 2050, the average annual precipitation in Xinjiang will change at rates of 3.95 mm/10 a, 1.90 mm/10 a, 2.50 mm/10 a, and 8.67 mm/10 a, respectively, under the four scenarios. The precipitation amounts predicted under the different scenarios increase at the slowest rates in winter and at faster rates in spring. Spatially, the precipitation in the whole Xinjiang region under the four scenarios shows an increasing trend. Overall, except for the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the rates of increase in precipitation increase gradually in all seasons during the future period as the emission scenarios increase. Overall, the climate of the Xinjiang region will be characterized by warming and humidification from 2021 to 2050.