Increase In Precipitation Research Articles

Increases in Temperature and Precipitation in the Different Regions of the Tarim River Basin Between 1961 and 2021 Show Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) faces significant ecological challenges due to global warming, making it essential to understand the changes in the climates of its sub-basins for effective management. With this aim, data from national meteorological stations, ERA5_Land, and climate indices from 1961 to 2021 were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation variations in the TRB and its sub-basins and to assess their climate sensitivity. Our results showed that (1) the annual mean temperature increased by 0.2 °C/10a and precipitation increased by 7.1 mm/10a between 1961 and 2021. Moreover, precipitation trends varied significantly among the sub-basins, with that in the Aksu River Basin increasing the most (12.9 mm/10a) and that in the Cherchen River Basin increasing the least (1.9 mm/10a). Moreover, ERA5_Land data accurately reproduced the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature (correlation 0.92) and precipitation (correlation 0.72) in the TRB. (2) Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis identified the northern sections of the Kaidu, Weigan, and Yerqiang river basins as centers of temperature sensitivity and the western part of the Kaidu and Cherchen River Basin as the center of precipitation sensitivity. (3) Global warming is closely correlated with sub-basin temperature (correlation above 0.5) but weakly correlated with precipitation (correlation 0.2~0.5). TRB temperatures were found to have a positive correlation with AMO, especially in the Hotan, Kashgar, and Aksu river basins, and a negative correlation with AO and NAO, particularly in the Keriya and Hotan river basins. Precipitation correlations between the climate indices were complex and varied across the different basins.

The climatic impacts on rice yield in the Indian state of Odisha: an application of Just-Pope production function and quantile regression.

The impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture are well documented. However, there is a dearth of research addressing the inter-regional diversities in the impacts. Furthermore, existing studies are mostly restricted to the impacts on mean agricultural yield, overlooking the impacts on yield variability. This study investigates climatic impacts on rice yield in Odisha, a coastal Indian state, employing district-level panel data from 1995 to 2017. This study uses the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and quantile regression approaches to estimate how climatic impacts are realized on mean yield, yield variability, and conditional quantiles of yield distribution. The use of the agro-climatic zone level dummies empowers the study to account for local weather and soil conditions. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in the climatic impacts across agro-climatic zones. A marginal increase in the maximum temperature reduces rice yield by 279-325kg/ha across different agro-climatic zones, largely constituting the state's coastal region, but increases yield by 340-766kg/ha across the zones lying in the western region. Conversely, an increase in minimum temperature increases rice yield by around 211kg/ha in the coastal region, but reduces by 333-744kg/ha in the western region. In addition, an increase in precipitation reduces yield by 0.318 kg/ha in some parts of the coastal region, but increases yield by 0.268 0.881 kg/ha across other regions. Similar heterogeneity is also identified across conditional quantiles of yield distribution. The heterogeneous impacts call for strategic policy intervention specific to zones and quantiles.

The effects of evaporation and precipitation on droughts under global change

Drought can be defined as a kind of natural disaster, with a series of effects in different aspects of human life, including environment, economic, ecosystem and agriculture. Previous studies has delved more deeply into the impact of drought, examining it through a range of drought indices, including PEI, SPEI, PDSI, and others. Our study is aims to analyze and research the effects of evaporation and precipitation on droughts under global climate change. Through the temperature changing data research the global climate change feature, analyzing the development of droughts using a drought assessment index (P-E) and making use of bucket model to analyze the relationship between precipitation rate and soil moisture. Research found that the average land temperature is increasing. On the context of this change, the change of evaporation and precipitation causes dry regions to become drier and wet regions wetter. Furthermore, the 20% decrease of precipitation leads to about a one-fifth decline in soil water content, and a lower precipitation rate would speed up the drought states. Meanwhile, soil moisture can also lead to an increase in precipitation. A coupling phenomenon between precipitation rate and soil moisture is exist. This study provides a new point for predicting future droughts conditions.

Sea ice perturbations in aquaplanet simulations: isolating the physical climate responses from model interventions

Abstract Comprehensive climate model simulations with perturbed sea ice covers have been extensively used to assess the impact of future sea ice loss, suggesting substantial climate changes both in the high latitudes and beyond. However, previous work using an idealized energy balance model calls into question the methods that are used to perturb sea ice cover, demonstrating a consistent overestimate of the surface warming due to sea ice loss, while the large complexity gap between the idealized and comprehensive models makes the implications of this result unclear. To bridge this gap we have performed simulations with a new implementation of the CESM2 model in a slab-ocean aquaplanet configuration coupled with thermodynamic sea ice, which is able to capture the realistic seasonal characteristics of polar climate change. Using this model setup, we perform a suite of experiments to systematically quantify the spurious climate responses associated with melting sea ice without a CO2 forcing. We find that using the sea ice ghost flux method overestimates many aspects of the climate response by ~10-20%, including the polar warming, the mini global warming signal and the increase in both precipitation and evaporation. The location of the latitudinal band of heating applied to melt the sea ice relative to the midlatitude jet is important for determining where the midlatitude circulation response is overestimated. This work advances our ability to isolate the true climate response to sea ice loss, and provides a framework for conducting coupled sea ice loss simulations absent the spurious impacts from the addition of artificial heating.

On the Extrapolation of Generative Adversarial Networks for Downscaling Precipitation Extremes in Warmer Climates

AbstractWhile deep‐learning downscaling algorithms can generate fine‐scale climate projections cost‐effectively, it is unclear how effectively they extrapolate to unobserved climates. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of a deterministic Convolutional Neural Network baseline and a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) built with this baseline, trained to predict daily precipitation simulated by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) over New Zealand. Both approaches emulate future changes in annual mean precipitation well, when trained on historical data, though training on a future climate improves performance. For extreme precipitation (99.5th percentile), RCM simulations predict a robust end‐of‐century increase with future warming (∼5.8%/C on average from five simulations). When trained on a future climate, GANs capture 97% of the warming‐driven increase in extreme precipitation compared to 65% in a deterministic baseline. Even GANs trained historically capture 77% of this increase. Overall, GANs offer better generalization for downscaling extremes, which is important in applications relying on historical data.

Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States.

Changes in temperature and precipitation are already influencing US forests and that will continue in the future even as we mitigate climate change. Using spatiotemporally matched data for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), we used simulated annealing to estimate critical thresholds for changes in the growth and survival of roughly 150 tree species (153 spp. for growth, 159 spp. for survival) across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We found that growth of nearly one-third of tree species assessed (44 spp.) decreased with any increase in MAT (42-49 species), whereas fewer responded negatively to projected regional trends in MAP (< 20 species each in the east and west). Hypothetical increases in temperature (+1°C, +2°C) increased average annual growth in the Central East and Pacific Northwest and decreased growth over large areas of the Rockies and Southeast, while decadal survival generally decreased with temperature. Average annual growth and decadal survival had unfavorable associations with projected precipitation, generally decreasing with wetter conditions (+25%) in the east and decreasing with drier conditions (-25%) in the west. Beyond these averages, there were species that positively and negatively responded nearly everywhere across the CONUS, suggesting changes in forest composition are underway. We identified only eight species out of ~150 assessed that were tolerant to increases in temperature, and 24 species in the east and seven in the west were tolerant to regionally specific trends in precipitation (increases in the east and decreases in the west). We assessed confidence on a 5-point scale (1-5) for five aspects of uncertainty. Average confidence scores were generally high, though some species and metrics had low confidence scores especially for survival. These findings have significant implications for the future national forest carbon sink and for conservation efforts in the face of climate change.

Space-Time Variability of Maximum Daily Rainfall in Piura River Basin in Peru Related to El Niño Occurrence

This study analyzes hydrometeorological data (1950–2023) to examine the signatures of El Niño and La Niña events and assess their impact on rainfall distribution in the Piura Region, Peru. Using data from 23 stations, high-resolution gridded rainfall datasets (PISCO), and oceanic–atmospheric indices we investigated the frequency, intensity, and spatial variability of these events in the Piura River Basin (PRB). Return periods for very strong El Niño and La Niña events are 25 and 19 years, respectively, compared to 2 years for neutral conditions. Over the past 30 years, the recurrence of Coastal El Niño has significantly increased. This increased frequency contributes to the global rise in El Niño events, reducing the return period for very strong events from 5.2 to 3.4 years. This rise correlates with an increase in maximum daily precipitation across the basin centered in the middle PRB during El Niño years. Future rainfall projections, based on 20 CMIP6 GCMs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, suggest continued intensification of rainfall events. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating El Niño variability into infrastructure design, water resource management, and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of these increasingly frequent and severe events in the PRB.

The Associations of Long-Term Temperature and Precipitation with Chronic Respiratory Symptoms: Projections for the Changing Climate

PurposeTo clarify the associations of climatic indices with chronic respiratory symptoms, with a final aim to approximate the effects of climate change on them.MethodsAn e-mail survey was directed to the members of the Finnish Pensioners` Federation. The mean 20-years’ precipitation and temperature in each subjects’ home municipality were obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, separately for summer and winter. Adjusted multivariate models were utilized to investigate the associations of the climatic indices with chronic rhinosinusitis, chronic cough, wheezing with dyspnea, and sleep apnea.ResultsThere were 6189 responders from 283 municipalities. Chronic rhinosinusitis and chronic cough were most prevalent in the southeastern regions of the country, where the precipitation counts were highest. In the multivariate models, winter precipitation in the home municipality increased the risks of chronic rhinosinusitis and chronic cough [adjusted OR 1.80 (1.30–2.51) per 100 mm, p < 0.001, and 1.57 (1.19–2.07) per 100 mm, p = 0.001, respectively]. Wheezing with dyspnea and sleep apnea were not associated with the climatic indices.ConclusionChronic rhinosinusitis and chronic cough were associated with long-term winter precipitation. Given the anticipated increase in winter precipitation in Northern America and Northern Europe, the prevalences of chronic rhinosinusitis and chronic cough may increase there.

The Paleo‐Serchio River: history of floods between Lucca and Pisa during the Roman period

ABSTRACTThe reconstruction of flood frequency beyond the Instrumental Era is challenging and mostly based on historical sources, but it rarely covers more than the last 1000 years when abundant documentation is preserved. To investigate the long‐term trends in flooding and obtain insight into current climatic changes it is necessary to extend these data to a larger number of rivers beyond the Instrumental Era and available period of historical documentation. In this paper we reconstruct the paleoflood record for the Roman Period of the Serchio River (Auser in antiquity, located in Northern Tuscany, Central Italy) using geoarcheological data. The complex hydrological evolution of the river and the development of the important cities of Lucca and Pisa on the river bank allowed an important collection of data, showing a prominent peak in flood activity during the 1st century ce, which seems to correspond to an increase in regional rainfall interpreted from speleothem proxies. A secondary peak is present in the 6th century ce, which corresponds locally with an increase in precipitation recorded by speleothems. The phases of increased flooding, when compared with present‐day synoptical meteorological conditions, probably developed during a period of negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, and it is partially supported by comparison with paleoproxies for NAO. These findings confirm that an extensive collection of geoarcheological data, supported by geological and geomorphological investigation, represents a powerful tool to be integrated with historical data for the reconstruction of floods. The concomitance of local paleohydrological proxies can help in disentangling the origin of the signal from other causes.

Estimation of Future Climate Change in Low Folded Zone, Iraq with the LARS-WG and Five GMS Models under CMIP5 Scenarios

This study investigates the trends of climate change in the Low Folded Zone region of Iraq and provides future projections for daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as precipitation. Using the LARS-WG model and five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, the research aims to provide valuable insights into the anticipated changes in climate variables. The calibration and validation of the model demonstrate its capability to simulate future climatic data, with statistical indices indicating a strong correlation between observed and generated data. The projected future temperatures showed a consistent increase across all selected stations, with average annual maximum temperatures expected to rise by 1.06 to 5.48°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The highest increase in temperatures was predicted under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. The results also indicated spatial and temporal variations in precipitation patterns, with the annual percentage increase in precipitation ranging from 7.07% to 10.75% for RCP 2.6, 0% to 2.2% for RCP4.5, and 3.7% to 6.8% for RCP8.5. The findings reveal a projected increase in annual temperatures and variable precipitation patterns, highlighting the urgency of proactive measures to address the challenges posed by climate change in the region. The results of this study are crucial for informing decision-makers and planners in developing strategies for climate change adaptation and resource management, particularly in water resource management and agricultural planning.

Research for the Enhanced Oil Recovery Mechanism of Heavy Oil After Composite Huff and Puff Assisted by Edge-Bottom Water Displacement

Abstract In the late stage of exploiting heavy oil reservoirs with edge-bottom water, we are faced with problems such as high crude oil viscosity, channeling of bottom water, and rapid rise in water cut. To clarify the synergistic effect of N2, CO2, N2 foam, and viscosity reducer in water control and oil increase, and solve the problem of edge-bottom water rushing into production wells, one-dimensional sand-pack huff and puff experiments were carried out. First, the N2 foam huff and puff experiment evaluated the effect of N2 foam on controlling bottom water. Then the viscosity reducer-assisted CO2 huff and puff experiment analyzed the synergistic viscosity reduction ability between the two to mobilize the remaining heavy oil. Next, the N2 foam–viscosity reducer–CO2 huff and puff experiment clarified the synergistic effect between the three. Finally, the N2 foam–viscosity reducer–CO2–N2 huff and puff experiment solved the problem of insufficient reservoir energy based on synergistic precipitation and oil increase. Experimental results show that N2 foam–viscosity reducer–CO2–N2 huff and puff is the optimal water control and oil increase solution. This solution can significantly reduce water production and increase oil production. In the one-dimensional sand-pack experiment, this technical solution reduced the water content by 68% and increased the recovery rate by 16.09%. The research results provide a reference for the development of exploitation technology schemes for similar edge-bottom water heavy oil reservoirs after entering high water cut.

Attributing the Variations in Evapotranspiration and Its Components of Alpine Grasslands Over the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractClarifying the controlling factors of annual variations in evapotranspiration (ET) and its components (transpiration (T) and evaporation (E)) over alpine grasslands of high‐cold regions is vital to understanding the hydrological processes of the terrestrial ecosystem. Therefore, this study investigated the variability of ET and its components over the alpine grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the driving factors underlying these changes during 1961–2013. The results showed that the annual ET over alpine grasslands was 339 mm, of which 59% and 41% were contributed by E and T, respectively. Annual ET, E, and T over the TP grasslands changed insignificantly before 1995, whereas increased dramatically during 1995–2013. Regarding different alpine grassland types, annual ET and its components in seasonal frost regions (SAG) were larger than in permafrost regions (PAG). The increase of ET and its components in PAG was profoundly larger than that in the SAG region during 1995–2013. Water and energy factors controlled the ET of approximately 65% and 31% area of the TP grasslands, respectively. Leaf area index was the major cause of T variability throughout 64% area of TP grasslands, while regions where energy factors were the major force of T change were mainly located in the eastern SAG region. Variability of E on entire TP grasslands (81%) was mainly regulated by available water supply. Our results indicate that as permafrost degradation has the potential to amplify climate warming and precipitation increase, ET over the PAG region was expected to continue increasing faster than the SAG region.

Climate change in the Greater Lomé health region: Perceptions of impacts on health systems

Climate change is occurring more quickly and has more complex effects than expected. The well-being of populations in general and financial resources have been impacted by climate change in recent years. Children, pregnant women and the elderly bear the brunt of the impacts caused by climate-related risks. This research aims to assess the perceptions of health personnel and clients on climate change as well as these impacts in the Greater Lomé health region in Togo. Furthermore, this research examines the differences between the perceptions of caregivers, patients and scientific observations in this area. Based on field observations, an interview guide and a questionnaire, the information collected shows that nearly 75.95% of those questioned perceived climate change, particularly in the form of an increase in precipitation concentrated on a cost duration causing floods and the scarcity of rain at the end of the year leading to droughts. More than 25.40% and 61.86% respectively perceive that droughts and floods impact their livelihoods, but do not fully understand the causes. The results are useful for planning useful actions to facilitate the management of climate-related risks in health establishments in the Greater Lomé health region. It is therefore important to carry out awareness campaigns, train stakeholders and take necessary measures to make health systems resilient.

Association between precipitation events, drought, and animal operations with Salmonella infections in the Southwest US, 2009–2021

BackgroundTemperature and precipitation have previously been associated with Salmonella infections. The association between salmonellosis and precipitation might be explained by antecedent drought conditions; however, few studies have explored this effect. MethodsUsing an ecological study design with public health surveillance, meteorological (total precipitation [inches], temperature [average °F], Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI, category]), and livestock data we explored the association between precipitation and Salmonella infections reported in 127/141 counties from 2009 to 2021 in the Southwest, US and determined how this association was modified by antecedent drought. To explore the acute effect of precipitation on Salmonella infections we used negative binomial generalized estimating equations adjusted for temperature with a 2-week lag resulting in Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR). Stratified analyses were used to explore the effect of antecedent drought and type of animal density on this association. ResultsA one inch increase in precipitation was associated with a 2 % increase in Salmonella infections reported two weeks later (IRR: 1.02, 95 % CI: 1.00, 1.04) after adjusting for average temperature and PDSI. Precipitation following moderate (IRR: 1.22, 95 % CI: 1.17, 1.28) and severe drought (IRR: 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.10, 1.22) was associated with a significant increase in cases, whereas in the most extreme drought conditions, cases were significantly decreased (IRR: 0.89, 95 % CI: 0.85, 0.94). Overall, more precipitation (above a 30-year normal, the 95th and 99th percentiles) were associated with greater increases in cases, with the highest increase following moderate and severe drought. Counties with a higher density of chicken and beef cattle were significantly associated with increased cases regardless of drought status, whereas dairy cattle, and cattle including calves had mixed results. DiscussionOur study suggests precipitation following prior dry conditions is associated with an increase in salmonellosis in the Southwest, US. Public health is likely to see an increase in salmonellosis with extreme precipitation events, especially in counties with a high density of chicken and beef cattle.

Tracing the range shifts of African tree ferns: Insights from the last glacial maximum and beyond

African tropical forests are experiencing rapid decline as a result of several factors, including increasing population pressure, recurrent wildfires, selective logging practices, land use changes, intensified agricultural activities, and other social and economic issues. Using MaxEnt, paleoclimatic data, and future climate scenarios, the present study seeks to explore the presence of tree ferns in tropical and Saharan Africa during the Last Glacial Maximum, African Holocene Humid Period (AHHP; ca. 14,500–5000 years ago) and to project the effects of climate change on the distribution of tree ferns in Africa under two future climatic scenarios, Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Our study reveals that despite a significant increase in precipitation during the AHHP, precipitation distribution was variable and insufficient to support the five tree fern species examined in this study. While some tree fern species have experienced range shifts over time, we found that most of them have maintained their presence within refuge areas that probably endured the late Pleistocene extinction event. These refugia provided a haven for some tree ferns, allowing them to persist and survive amidst challenging and varying environmental conditions. This highlights tree ferns' remarkable adaptability in changing climate as well as the critical importance of these refugial areas in safeguarding their populations during climatic upheaval. Our study further demonstrates that different species respond to climate change differently, with some experiencing minimal range contractions of 2.0 %, up to more than 57.0 % range expansion in other species. Preserving refugia not only safeguards tree fern populations but also contributes to conserving overall forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. This knowledge is crucial for implementing targeted conservation actions that promote sustainable forest management and can mitigate the threats posed by climate change and anthropogenic activities in African closed wet forests.

Characterization of Groundwater Geochemistry in an Esker Aquifer in Western Finland Based on Three Years of Monitoring Data

This study investigated the hydrogeochemistry of a shallow Quaternary sedimentary aquifer in an esker deposition in western Finland, where distinct spatial and temporal variability in groundwater hydrogeochemistry has been observed. Field investigation and hydrogeochemical data were obtained from autumn 2010 to autumn 2013. The data were analyzed using the multivariate statistical methods principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), in conjunction with groundwater classification based on the main ionic composition. The stable isotope ratios of δ18O and δD were used to determine the origin of the groundwater and its connection to surface water bodies. The groundwater geochemistry is characterized by distinct redox zones caused by the influence of organic matter, pyrite oxidation, and preferential flow pathways due to different hydrogeological conditions. The groundwater is of the Ca-HCO3 type and locally of the Ca-HCO3-SO4 type, with low TDS, alkalinity, and pH, but elevated Fe and Mn concentrations, KMnO4 consumption, and, occasionally, Ni concentrations. The decomposition of organic matter adds CO2 to the groundwater, and in this study, the dissolution of CO2 was found to increase the pH and enhance the buffering capacity of the groundwater. The mobility of redox-sensitive elements and trace metals is controlled by pH and redox conditions, which are affected by the pumping rate, precipitation, and temperature. With the expected future increases in precipitation and temperature, the buffering capacity of the aquifer system will enhance the balance between alkalinity from bioactivity and acidity from recharge and pyrite oxidation.

Spatial and temporal variations in temperature and precipitation trends in South Korea over the past half-century (1974–2023) using innovative trend analysis

This study analyzed temperature and precipitation from 60 meteorological stations during a half-century (1974–2023) using the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to explore the spatial and temporal trends across South Korea. The ITA illustrated the trends graphically, and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test added statistical significance to these findings, allowing us to better understand climate changes over the past five decades. The ITA analysis showed a statistically significant monotonic warming trend in temperature at nearly all of the stations. While annual and seasonal changes were found to be substantial, the most relative increases were reported during the spring and summer months. There were quite clear spatial and seasonal differences in precipitation trends. The Han River and Jeju Island areas showed significant increases in precipitation during summer and autumn, which may be associated with intensified monsoonal activity. Our findings revealed a consistent warming signal in all regions and significant regional climate variability. The observed temperature increases, especially in the spring season, are likely to have significant impacts on crop yield and altered growing season due to increased heat stress, increased water demand for various activities affecting water resources, heightened risks to public health from heatwaves and broader impacts on societal well-being such as increased energy demands as well as economic costs associated with climate adaptation measures. The complex precipitation patterns revealed the influence of regional topography and oceanic drivers in modulating climate variability in South Korea, which differs from patterns seen in more continental regimes.

New insights into Holocene dust activity in eastern Uzbekistan

Central Asia is a substantial source of long-range-transported dust, yet the historical and geological variability of dust activity in this region remains poorly understood. This study presents a Holocene record of dust activity from a 6.2-m loess section located near Tashkent in the westerlies-dominated region of eastern Uzbekistan, Central Asia. Utilizing the quartz optically stimulated luminescence dating protocol, we employed grain-size analysis and trace-element geochemistry to reconstruct Holocene dust activity. Dating indicated that this section was deposited over the last 9.6 ka. Four grain-size end-member (EM) components were identified, each representing different atmospheric circulation patterns and sedimentary environments. End-member 2, with a modal size of 11.2 μm, likely represents particles transported by upper-level westerlies, while EM 3, with a modal size of 28.3 μm, is associated with near-surface winds linked to dust storms. Zirconium is concentrated in coarse particles, whereas Rb is enriched in finer particles during dust deposition. Therefore, higher Zr/Rb ratios indicate stronger or more distant dust transport; hence, the Zr/Rb ratio is a reliable indicator of dust activity. Holocene dust activity was reconstructed using the EM 3 component and Zr/Rb ratio, revealing several extreme dust-storm events. During the early–middle Holocene (9.6–5 ka), dust activity was stronger but less frequent compared with the subsequent shift to lower intensity but higher frequency dust events. The long-term orbital-scale decline in Holocene dust activity can be attributed to reduced solar insolation and weakening of the Siberian High since the early Holocene. On a centennial to millennial scale, extreme dust-storm events are teleconnected with cold ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic. Projections for the coming century suggest that dust activity in eastern Uzbekistan may further decline, accompanied by an increase in precipitation. This study provides new insights into understanding and predicting dust storms in Central Asia.

Summer High-Altitude Diurnal Rainfall Change in the Three Rivers Source Region and Associated Mechanism

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP), a crucial area influencing global climatic patterns and water resources, is experiencing a unique climatic paradox, particularly evident in the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR). A striking summer asymmetry in the increases of near-surface temperature and precipitation is observed from 1989 to 2018: the rate of daily minimum temperature (0.64°C decade−1) surpasses the daily maximum temperature (0.52°C decade−1), while the daytime precipitation intensity (0.40 mm day−1 decade−1) increases at a faster rate compared to nighttime (0.30 mm day−1 decade−1). Despite these trends, the summer mean nighttime precipitation intensity consistently remains higher than the daytime average. Notably, this pattern is accompanied by an increasing trend of moisture transport during both daytime and nighttime in TRSR. This paper deciphers the thermodynamic and dynamic processes behind this trend. The daytime warmth not only alters the stability of atmosphere but also modulates convective inhibition (CIN), thereby reshaping precipitation mechanics and potentially dampening or delaying daytime convection. Thermodynamically, a shift from unstable to stable anomalies in the summer troposphere suppresses precipitation development. The combination of increased CIN during those period leads to fewer but more intense rainy days. Dynamically, the shift from a consistent downward motion anomaly throughout troposphere to an upward motion anomaly becomes dominant during nighttime, exhibiting a similar transition but only below 500 hPa during daytime. These findings reveal the complex interplay between thermodynamics, dynamics, and precipitation, highlighting the need for refined climatic models that can accurately simulate these summer diurnal processes.

Assessing the Moisture Resilience of Wood Frame Wall Assemblies

Resilience has been used as a building performance metric that measures the building’s capability of absorption, response, and recovery from one or a series of disruptive events, e.g., extreme weather events or power outage events. With respect to resilience, in relation to the moisture performance of the building envelope (moisture resilience), this aspect has not yet been thoroughly explored nor defined. Given the expected increase in annual precipitation in certain regions of Canada as induced by climate change effects occurring both currently and in the future, the moisture resilience of building envelops will require immediate attention given that wall assemblies of buildings are predicted to be subjected to excessive moisture loads in the coming years. In this study, the moisture resilience of wood frame wall assemblies to mould growth was described from three aspects: (i) absorption—the ability of the wall to maintain a low level of relative humidity on the OSB; (ii) response—the fluctuation of the relative humidity on the OSB; and (iii) recovery—the rate at which the relative humidity recovers to an acceptable level. The metrics used to demonstrate the relative impact of these factors on moisture performance were also developed. The results have revealed a robust correlation between moisture performance and the relative influence of various newly defined aspects of moisture resilience.