Precipitation Estimates Research Articles

Uncertainty analysis on long-term runoff projection from the Budyko framework and a conceptual hydrological model

ABSTRACT Runoff projections are subject to uncertainties related to model structure and parameters. This study aims to analyze uncertainties in long-term runoff estimations from an empirical (Budyko framework) and a conceptual hydrological model (MHD-INPE). Results indicate that both MHD-INPE and Budyko estimations tend to overestimate long-term runoff during years of recurring droughts. Pareto front solutions in MHD-INPE exhibited small uncertainties in long-term runoff estimations regarding parameter calibration (bias between 5 and 7%); differences were observed in low (bellow 5% variation) and high (bellow 10% variation) daily runoff. Related to model structure uncertainties, both models follow similar patterns and performance for a qualitative analysis. Budyko's future projections tend to exceed MHD-INPE's during high precipitation estimates, where at 2000 mm yearly precipitation the estimated runoff from Budyko tends to be 100 mm greater than the hydrological model. Under arid conditions Budyko tends to estimate smaller runoff than MHD-INPE due to variations in soil moisture and water storage not properly represented in Budyko's parameter. Although uncertainties were identified related to model complexity and calibrated parameters, higher uncertainties were identified as related to the climate models. Therefore, the Budyko method is a viable alternative for first-order analysis of long-term impacts.

Impact of Assimilating Radar Solid Precipitation Data in the Canadian Precipitation Analysis System

Abstract The Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system provides near-real-time precipitation analyses over Canada by combining observations with short-term numerical weather prediction forecasts. CaPA’s snowfall estimates suffer from the lack of accurate solid precipitation measurements to correct the first-guess estimate. Weather radars have the potential to add precipitation measurements to CaPA in all seasons but are not assimilated in winter due to radar snowfall estimate imprecision and lack of precipitation gauges for calibration. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of assimilating Canadian dual-polarized radar-based snowfall data in CaPA to improve precipitation estimates. Two sets of experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of including radar snowfall retrievals, one set using the high-resolution CaPA (HRDPA) with the currently operational quality control configuration and another increasing the number of assimilated surface observations by relaxing quality control. Experiments spanned two winter seasons (2021 and 2022) in central Canada, covering part of the entire CaPA domain. The results showed that the assimilation of radar-based snowfall data improved CaPA’s precipitation estimates 81.75% of the time for 0.5-mm precipitation thresholds. An increase in the probability of detection together with a decrease in the false alarm ratio suggested an improvement of the precipitation spatial distribution and estimation accuracy. Additionally, the results showed improvements for both precipitation mass and frequency biases for low precipitation amounts. For larger thresholds, the frequency bias was degraded. The results also indicated that the assimilation of dual-polarization radar data is beneficial for the two CaPA configurations tested in this study.

Evaluating Precipitation Events Using GPM IMERG 30-Minute Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimates

Abstract Accurately detecting and estimating precipitation at near–real time (NRT) is of utmost importance for the early detection and monitoring of hydrometeorological hazards. The precipitation product, Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), provides NRT 0.1° and 30-min precipitation estimates across the globe with only a 4-h latency. This study was an evaluation of the GPM IMERG version 6 level-3 early run 30-min precipitation product for precipitation events from 2014 through 2020. The purpose of this research was to identify when, where, and why GPM IMERG misidentified and failed to detect precipitation events in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah in the United States. Precipitation events were identified based on 15-min precipitation from gauges and 30-min precipitation from the IMERG multisatellite constellation. False-positive and false-negative precipitation events were identified and analyzed to determine their characteristics. Precipitation events identified by gauges had longer duration and had higher cumulative precipitation than those identified by GPM IMERG. GPM IMERG had many false event detections during the summer months, suggesting possible virga event detection, which is when precipitation falls from a cloud but evaporates before it reaches the ground. The frequency and timing of the merged passive microwave (PMW) product and forward propagation were responsible for IMERG overestimating cumulative precipitation during some precipitation events and underestimating others. This work can inform experts that are using the GPM IMERG NRT product to be mindful of situations where GPM IMERG–estimated precipitation events may not fully resolve the hydrometeorological conditions driving these hazards. Significance Statement Accurately estimating rainfall to detect and monitor a precipitation event at near–real time is of utmost importance for hydrometeorological hazards. We used a state-of-the-art rainfall estimation product called GPM IMERG that uses infrared and passive microwave measurements collected from a constellation of satellites to produce near-real-time rainfall estimates every 30 min worldwide. The purpose of our research was to identify when, where, and why GPM IMERG falsely detected and missed precipitation events. Our results suggest that the frequency and timing of passive microwave precipitation with forward propagation were responsible for IMERG missing events, overestimating total rainfall during some precipitation events, and underestimating total rainfall in other precipitation events. Our future work will further investigate precipitation events using the GPM IMERG version 7 near-real-time product.

UFNet: Joint U-Net and Fully Connected Neural Network to Bias Correct Precipitation Predictions from Climate Models

Abstract Precipitation values produced by climate models are biased due to the parameterization of physical processes and limited spatial resolution. Current bias-correction approaches usually focus on correcting lower-order statistics (mean and standard deviation), which make it difficult to capture precipitation extremes. However, accurate modeling of extremes is critical for policymaking to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. We develop a deep learning framework, leveraging information from key dynamical variables impacting precipitation to also match higher-order statistics (skewness and kurtosis) for the entire precipitation distribution, including extremes. The deep learning framework consists of a two-part architecture: a U-Net convolutional network to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and a fully connected network to capture the distribution of higher-order statistics. The joint network, termed UFNet, can simultaneously improve the spatial structure of the modeled precipitation and capture the distribution of extreme precipitation values. Using climate model simulation data and observations that are climatologically similar but not strictly paired, the UFNet identifies and corrects the climate model biases, significantly improving the estimation of daily precipitation as measured by a broad range of spatiotemporal statistics. In particular, UFNet significantly improves the underestimation of extreme precipitation values seen with current bias-correction methods. Our approach constitutes a generalized framework for correcting other climate model variables which improves the accuracy of the climate model predictions, while utilizing a simpler and more stable training process.

Analysis and Prediction of Summer Rainfall over Southwestern Utah

Abstract While many studies have examined intense rainfall and flash flooding during the North American monsoon (NAM) in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico, less attention has focused on the NAM’s extension into southwestern Utah. This study relates flash flood reports and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation across southwestern Utah to atmospheric moisture content and instability analyses and forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during the 2021–23 monsoon seasons. MRMS quantitative precipitation estimates over southwestern Utah during the summer depend largely on the areal coverage from the KICX WSR-88D radar near Cedar City, Utah. Those estimates are generally consistent with the limited number of precipitation gauge reports in the region except at extended distances from the radar. A strong relationship is evident between days with widespread precipitation and afternoons with above-average precipitable water (PWAT) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) estimated from HRRR analyses across the region. Time-lagged ensembles of HRRR forecasts (initialization times from 0300 to 0600 UTC) that are 13–18 h prior to the afternoon period when convection is initiating (1800–2100 UTC) are useful for situational awareness of widespread precipitation events after adjusting for underprediction of afternoon CAPE. Improved skill is possible using random forest classification relying only on PWAT and CAPE to predict days experiencing excessive (upper quartile) precipitation. Such HRRR predictions may be useful for forecasters at the Salt Lake City National Weather Service Forecast Office to assist in issuing flash flood potential statements for visitors to national parks and other recreational areas in the region. Significance Statement Summer flash floods in southwestern Utah are a risk to area residents and millions of visitors annually to the region’s national parks, monuments, and recreational areas. The likelihood of flash floods within the region’s catchments depends on the intense afternoon and early evening convection initiated by lift and instability primarily due to terrain–flow interactions over elevated plateaus and mountains. Forecasts at lead times of 13–18 h of moisture and instability from the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model have the potential to predict summer afternoons that are likely to have increased risks for higher rainfall amounts across southwestern Utah, although they are not expected to predict the likelihood of flash floods in any specific locale.

Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain

Abstract. On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain, experienced a heavy precipitation event that resulted in a catastrophic flash flood, causing six fatalities. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors. The hydrometeorological factors are investigated using the new Triangle-based Regional Atmospheric Model, radar-derived precipitation estimates, post-flood field and gauge observations, and the Kinematic Local Excess Model. The social dimension is assessed by examining the relationship between catchment dynamics and warning response times and by quantifying human behaviour during the course of the flash flood through a post-event citizen science campaign. Results reveal that a persistent south-easterly airflow brought low-level moisture and established convective instability in the region, while local orography was instrumental to triggering deep moist convection. A convective train promoted intense, copious, and prolonged precipitation over the north-western catchment headwaters. Basin response was significantly modulated by the very dry initial soil moisture conditions. After the long-lasting rainfall, an acute burst of precipitation resulted in extreme flash flooding. Fast and abrupt increases in streamflow affect small spatial scales and leave limited time for the effective implementation of protective measures. The institutional organization–protection–prevention cycle unfolded at the spatial and temporal scales typically dominated by the meteorological rather than hydrological scales. Although the citizen science campaign reveals the effectiveness of the warnings in reaching the population living in the most affected areas, a significant proportion of the respondents expressed a lack of adequate information or were unfamiliar with the intended meaning. In addition, a majority of the interviewees did not perceive any significant threat to life or property. In view of these results, this study identifies potential areas for improving social preparedness for similar natural hazards in the future.

Improving Estimation of Specific Differential Phase and Assessing Differential Backscattering Phase

Abstract Polarimetric variables such as differential phase ΦDP and its range derivative, specific differential phase KDP, contain useful information for improving quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and microphysics retrieval. However, the usefulness of the current operationally utilized estimation method of KDP is limited by measurement error and artifacts resulting from the differential backscattering phase δ. The contribution of δ can significantly influence the ΦDP measurements and therefore negatively affect the KDP estimates. Neglecting the presence of δ within non-Rayleigh scattering regimes has also led to the adoption of incorrect terminology regarding signatures seen within current operational KDP estimates implying associated regions of unrealistic liquid water content. A new processing method is proposed and developed to estimate both KDP and δ using classification and linear programming (LP) to reduce bias in KDP estimates caused by the δ component. It is shown that by applying the LP technique specifically to the rain regions of Rayleigh scattering along a radial profile, accurate estimates of differential propagation phase, specific differential phase, and differential backscattering phase can be retrieved within regions of both Rayleigh and non-Rayleigh scattering. This new estimation method is applied to cases of reported hail and tornado debris, and the LP results are compared to the operationally utilized least squares fit (LSF) estimates. The results show the potential use of the differential backscattering phase signature in the detection of hail and tornado debris.

Regional and seasonal assessment of biases on high-resolution satellite precipitation estimations in peninsular Malaysia: 2011–2020

ABSTRACT Satellite precipitation estimations (SPEs) have become important to estimate rainfall in remote and inaccessible areas. The study evaluates two high-resolution SPEs (IMERG and CHIRPS) in Peninsular Malaysia from 2011 to 2020. In situ rain gauge observation data were used as reference data, and a series of statistic indices were used to evaluate the performance of SPEs. In order to identify the source of error in the SPEs, an error decomposition technique was proposed whereby the bias is segregated into four different independent components. The study found that IMERG outperformed CHIRPS, with both satellites performing well in the east coast region but poor in the central region. A superior correlation between the SPEs and rain gauge observations was found during the northeast monsoon. The false bias has shown the widest range compared to other error components, indicating that it is the main contributor to the total bias of both SPEs in Peninsular Malaysia.

Prakiraan Jumlah Curah Hujan Berdasarkan Data Parameter Cuaca Tahun 2011-2021 di Kota Pangkalpinang

Tropical weather prevails in the Pangkalpinang city region, complemented with a changeable rainy season that experiences monthly variations. This phenomena results in a considerable amount of precipitation in the city of Pangkalpinang, making the area known for its extreme rainfall. Using multiple linear regression approaches to anticipate monthly precipitation is the aim of this work. Rainfall (RR), air temperature (T), air humidity (RH), and air pressure are all part of the dataset that was collected over an 11-year period (2011–2021). The information was obtained from the meteorological station in Depati Amir Pangkalpinang. This study uses the multiple linear regression method. The rainfall forecast results are compared to the observed actual rainfall amounts. Based on air temperature and air humidity as predictors, the results show that the estimation of cumulative monthly precipitation in the Pangkalpinang city region for the year 2021 produced an average root mean square error (RSME) value of 112.6 mm/month. Furthermore, the T-test analysis produced a 0.9 result. With air temperature, humidity, and pressure as predictors, the total monthly rainfall for 2021 was predicted with an average root mean square error (RMSE) value of 107.9 mm/month. A T-test was also performed, and the result was 0.4. The results of this study show that the monthly rainfall forecast model for the city of Pangkalpinang that includes factors related to temperature, humidity, and pressure produces better results than the model that only includes these variables. November and December are the months with the greatest variations.

Assessing the accuracy and reliability of satellite-derived precipitation products in the Kosi River basin (India).

The present research endeavors to examine the effectiveness of four gridded precipitation datasets, namely Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Tropical Precipitation Measuring Mission (TRMM), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), with the observed rainfall data of eight rain gauge stations of India Meteorological Department (IMD) from 2001 to 2019 in Kosi River basin, India. Various statistical metrics, contingency tests, trend analysis, and rainfall anomaly index were utilized at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales. The categorical metrics namely probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) indicate that MERRA-2 and IMERG datasets have the highest level of concurrence with the observed daily data. Statistical analysis of gridded datasets with observed dataset of IMD showed that the performance of the IMERG dataset is better than MERRA-2, PERSIANN, and TRMM datasets with "very good" coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for monthly data. Trend analysis of gridded seasonal data of IMERG showed similar trends of observed seasonal data whereas other dataset differs. IMERG also performed well in identifying wet and dry years based on annual data. Discrepancies of the satellite sensor in capturing the precipitation have also been discussed. Thus, the IMERG dataset can be effectively used for hydro-meteorological and climatological investigations in cases of lack of observed datasets.

U-HRNet+: a real-time precipitation estimation method based on the fusion of temporal and spatial domain features

ABSTRACT The precipitation estimation with high spatial and temporal resolution over Tibet is of great significance for monitoring the stability of the plateau ecosystem and early warning of natural disasters. In response to the problem of the unsatisfactory accuracy in traditional real-time precipitation inversion methods and quantitative accuracy estimation products in this region. This paper adopts deep-learning methods to explore the corresponding relationship between precipitation and multi-band observation data from geostationary satellite imagery. The U-High Resolution Network (U-HRNet) as backbone is fully exploited to generate multi-scale features and fused using attention gates to extract high-resolution spatial representations representing precipitation clouds, thereby achieving precipitation estimation of target clouds at different scales. In addition, in response to the characteristics of high precipitation intensity and drastic cloud cluster changes in summer convective weather within a short period of time, a multi-head attention mechanism is introduced to extract temporal information from time series inputs and fuse it with spatial features to improve the accuracy of real-time precipitation estimation. Compared with the operational precipitation products and baseline deep-learning models, the classification metrics such as Probability of detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and Critical success index (CSI) show that the proposed model (U-HRNet+) has better performance in test set and has high generalization ability for estimating short-term heavy rainfall over Tibet and its surrounding areas in summer. Therefore, the proposed model has the potential to serve as a more accurate and reliable satellite-based precipitation estimation product.

Evaluating the Performance and Applicability of Satellite Precipitation Products over the Rio Grande–San Juan Basin in Northeast Mexico

Accurate observation of precipitation data is crucial for hydrometeorological applications, requiring temporal and spatial precision. Satellite precipitation products offer a promising solution for obtaining precipitation estimates, facilitating long-term observations from global to local scales. However, assessing their accuracy compared to rain gauge observations is essential. This study aims to assess the accuracy and applicability of precipitation data from CMORPH, IMERG, and PERSIANN CCS in the Rio Grande–San Juan Basin in northeast Mexico. The evaluation of estimated precipitation was assessed using the Pearson and Spearman correlations, RMSE, MAE, and BIAS for both monthly and yearly averages. CMORPH showed minimal errors and low underestimation, while IMERG exhibited high correlations with consistent underestimation. PERSIANN CCS had lower correlations, significant overestimation, and higher errors. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to determinate the precipitation trends of observed and estimated data. The observed data showed a significant positive trend in monthly averages, which is not reflected in the annual trend. Furthermore, negative annual trends were found in at least 10 stations across the basin. The application of satellite precipitation data yielded mixed outcomes, with CMORPH showing the highest level of agreement with the trend analysis results from rain gauge data. This demonstrates its reliability for weather and climate studies and suggests the potential for CMORPH to be used as an input in hydrological modeling.

Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France

Abstract. Seasonal precipitation estimation in ungauged mountainous areas is essential for understanding and modeling a physical variable of interest in many environmental applications (hydrology, ecology, and cryospheric studies). Precipitation lapse rates (PLRs), defined as the increasing or decreasing rate of precipitation amounts with the elevation, play a decisive role in high-altitude precipitation estimation. However, the documentation of PLR in mountainous regions remains weak even though their utilization in environmental applications is frequent. This article intends to assess the spatial variability and the spatial-scale dependence of seasonal PLRs in a varied and complex topographical region. At the regional scale (10 000 km2), seven different precipitation products are compared in their ability to reproduce the altitude dependence of the annual/seasonal precipitation of 1836 stations located in France. The convection-permitting regional climate model (CP-RCM) AROME is the best in this regard, despite severe precipitation overestimation in high altitudes. The fine resolution of AROME allows for a precise assessment of the influence of altitude on winter and summer precipitation on 23 massifs at the sub-regional scale (∼ 1000 km2) and 2748 small catchments (∼ 100 km2) through linear regressions. With AROME, PLRs are often higher in winter at the catchment scale. The variability in the PLR is higher in high-altitude regions such as the French Alps, with higher PLRs at the border than inside the massifs. This study emphasizes the interest of conducting a PLR investigation at a fine scale to reduce spatial heterogeneity in the seasonal precipitation–altitude relationships.

A hybrid ensemble learning merging approach for enhancing the super drought computation over Lake Victoria Basin

This study introduces a novel Hybrid Ensemble Machine-Learning (HEML) algorithm to merge long-term satellite-based reanalysis precipitation products (SRPPs), enabling the estimation of super drought events in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) during the period of 1984 to 2019. This study considers three widely used Machine learning (ML) models, including RF (Random Forest), GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine), and KNN (k-nearest Neighbors), for the emerging HEML approach. The three SRPPs, including CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station), ERA5-Land, and PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network-Climate Data Record), were used to merge for developing new precipitation estimates from HEML model. Additionally, classification and regression models were employed as base learners in developing this algorithm. The newly developed HEML datasets were compared with other ML and SRPP products for super-drought monitoring. The Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate super drought characteristics, including Drought frequency (DF), Drought Duration (DD), and Drought Intensity (DI) from machine learning and SRPPs products in LVB and compared with RG observation. The results revealed that the HEML algorithm shows excellent performance (CC = 0.93) compared to the single ML merging method and SRPPs against observation. Furthermore, the HEML merging product adeptly captures the spatiotemporal patterns of super drought characteristics during both training (1984–2009) and testing (2010–2019) periods. This research offers crucial insights for near-real-time drought monitoring, water resource management, and informed policy decisions.

Eocene–Oligocene vegetation and climate changes in southeastern Brazil

The Eocene–Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks the onset of a major phase of global cooling with significant consequences to the vegetation worldwide. Here, we present palynological analyses from a site in southern São Paulo basin, southeastern Brazil (23.67°S; 46.58°W). An Oligocene age was constrained by the abundance of Dacrydiumites florinii and Podocarpidites spp., alongside the presence of taxa such as Cicatrocosisporites dorogensis and Polypodiisporites usmensis. Autochthonous elements including Paleoazolla, Corsinipollenites spp., Monoporopollenites annulatus, and Zygnemataceae algae spores are indicative of a low-energy freshwater depositional environment. In addition, we performed a comparison of Eocene and Oligocene temperature and precipitation estimates from records in southeastern Brazil using the weighted Mutual Climate Range approach. Results support global trends with a cooling of ca. 3–4 °C from the Eocene to the Oligocene accompanied by slightly drier regional conditions. Oligocene environmental changes drove a vegetation turnover by local extinction of warm-tropical taxa or a significant retreat of species unable to stand comparatively colder and drier climates under lower CO2atm concentrations. Our data are consistent with previous estimates and verify the impact of global cooling on the vegetation of mid-low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.

Python Indian Weather Radar Toolkit (pyiwr): An open-source Python library for processing, analyzing and visualizing weather radar data

The Python Indian Weather Radar Toolkit, abbreviated as "pyiwr", is an open-source Python library tailored for the purpose of handling data from the Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the pyiwr, which serves as a toolkit to read, analyze, process, and visualize weather radar data. Apart from this, the toolkit offers a range of robust functions implementing various algorithms covering several aspects of the radar data processing and quality control that facilitate the manipulation and analysis of weather radar data. To demonstrate the practical applicability of pyiwr, various case studies are presented, focusing on processing raw reflectivity data (clutter correction), Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) using Z-R relationship and time-series analysis of reflectivity and rain intensity, both spatially as well as at a specific location, during various meteorological events. This module enhances the accessibility and compatibility of radar data, enabling researchers, weather forecasters, and hydrologists to efficiently work with DWR data (particularly Indian DWR) that fosters advancements in weather radar research and applications. The open availability of pyiwr's source code on GitHub ensures that researchers and practitioners can not only access the toolkit but also contribute to its ongoing development.

Investigating the utility of satellite-based precipitation products for simulating extreme discharge events: an exhaustive model-driven approach for a tropical river basin in India.

Satellite-based precipitation estimates are a critical source of information for understanding and predicting hydrological processes at regional or global scales. Given the potential variability in the accuracy and reliability of these estimates, comprehensive performance assessments are essential before their application in specific hydrological contexts. In this study, six satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs), namely, CHIRPS, CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG, MSWEP, and PERSIANN, were evaluated for their utility in hydrological modeling, specifically in simulating streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The performance of the VIC model under varying flow conditions and timescales was assessed using statistical indicators, viz., R2, KGE, PBias, RMSE, and RSR. The findings of the study demonstrate the effectiveness of VIC model in simulating hydrological components and its applicability in evaluating the accuracy and reliability of SPPs. The SPPs were shown to be valuable for streamflow simulation at monthly and daily timescales, as confirmed by various performance measures. Moreover, the performance of SPPs for simulating extreme flow events (streamflow above 75%, 90%, and 95%) using the VIC model was assessed and a significant decrease in the performance was observed for high-flow events. Comparative analysis revealed the superiority of IMERG and CMORPH for streamflow simulation at daily timescale and high-flow conditions. In contrast, the performances of CHIRPS and PERSIANN were found to be poor. This study highlights the importance of thoroughly assessing the SPPs in modeling diverse flow conditions.

Comprehensive assessment of five near-real-time satellite precipitation products in the Lower Yangtze River Basin and the Lixiahe region, China: Dual perspectives from time series and extreme events

Near real-time satellite precipitation products (NSPPs) have significant potential in meteorological hydrological monitoring and forecasting due to their timeliness. Previous evaluation-oriented studies have either focused on the uncertainty of time series or on the monitoring capability of extreme events. There is limited research that comprehensively considers both aspects to provide a systematic knowledge. Moreover, there is still insufficient understanding of the accuracy of hourly precipitation estimates. This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation between five NSPPs (IMERG Early, IMERG Late, GSMaP NRT, GSMaP NRT Gauge and PERSIANN CCS) from two main perspectives at hourly scale: an assessment of time series spanning from 2018 to 2022 over the Lower Yangtze River Basin and the Lixiahe region and an examination of the four extreme events over the Tai Lake Basin and the Chao Lake Basin. HP-metrics are proposed to evaluate bias in the location of extreme rainfall, rainy area, and precipitation amount over time, comprehensively analyzing performance in terms of extreme events. The results show that, for general and seasonal assessment, IMERG Late generally performed best with good statistical metrics, with the highest CSI (0.343), CC (0.445), KGE ‘(0.295) in annual results, and the best agreement in capturing convective rain diurnal curves (summer CC = 0.820). GSMaP showed a better detection capability especially in spring and summer, and also performed better in capturing frequency curves, but always showed large estimation errors. IMERG and GSMaP detected worse CC region close to the water body. And the effect of high terrain on GSMaP NRT is more obvious in winter. For the evaluation in detecting the extreme events, IMERG and GSMaP overestimated the area and intensity and had a certain ability to discriminate the location of extreme precipitation, based on the temporal variation of HP-metrics. The rapid expansion or contraction of the extent of the extreme precipitation region could degrade the detection capability of HP-π. The comprehensive understanding of NSPPs provides valuable insights for upgrading satellite retrieval algorithms and making informed selection for precipitation products in meteorological hydrological applications.

Evaluation of IMERG Data over Open Ocean Using Observations of Tropical Cyclones

The IMERG data product is an optimal combination of precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), making use of a variety of data types, primarily data from various spaceborne passive instruments. Previous versions of the IMERG product have been extensively validated by comparisons with gauge data and ground-based radars over land. However, IMERG rain rates, especially sub-daily, over open ocean are less validated due to the scarcity of comparison data, particularly with the relatively new Version 07. To address this issue, we consider IMERG V07 30-min data acquired in tropical cyclones over open ocean. We perform two tasks. The first is a straightforward comparison between IMERG precipitation rates and those retrieved from the GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). From this, we find that IMERG and DPR are close at low rain rates, while, at high rain rates, IMERG tends to be lower than DPR. The second task is the assessment of IMERG’s ability to represent or detect structures commonly seen in tropical cyclones, including the annular structure and concentric eyewalls. For this, we operate on IMERG data with many machine learning algorithms and are able to achieve a 96% classification accuracy, indicating that IMERG does indeed contain TC structural information.

Improving Explainability of Deep Learning for Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Estimation

AbstractMachine learning‐based approaches demonstrate a significant potential in radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) applications. In contrast to conventional methods that depend on local raindrop size distributions, deep learning (DL) can establish an effective mapping from three‐dimensional radar observations to ground rain rates. However, the lack of transparency in DL models poses challenges toward understanding the underlying physical mechanisms that drive their outcomes. This study aims to develop a DL‐based QPE system and provide a physical explanation of radar precipitation estimation process. This research is designed by employing a deep neural network consisting of two modules. The first module is a quantitative precipitation estimation network that has the capability to learn precipitation patterns and spatial distribution from multidimensional polarimetric radar observations. The second module introduces a quantitative precipitation estimation shapley additive explanations method to quantify the influence of each radar observable on the model estimate across various precipitation intensities.