Decrease In Precipitation Research Articles

Водоотводный канал «Кош Тепа» — угроза продовольственной независимости государств Центральной Азии: миграционный и политико-правовой аспект

The article discusses the problems associated with the construction of the Kosh Tepa drainage canal. It is revealed that the construction is carried out with complete disregard for all the required norms and rules that must be observed during the construction of such structures. It was noted that Afghanistan has every right to use water from the Amu Darya River, the problem is in the violations allowed, due to which a significant part of the water will seep through the sandy soil and be irretrievably lost, loose soil will serve to waterlog some areas, especially those located below the level of the canal under construction, there will be a violation of the ecological balance in the region. It was emphasized that over the past decade in Central Asia, with a significant decrease in precipitation, there has been an increase in the average annual temperature. The issues of functioning of the Interstate Coordinating Water Management Commission, in which representatives of the republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan participate, have been studied. It has been revealed that the demand for water resources will gradually increase. The lack of water will affect migration processes, due to the lack of prospects for further residence in arid and arid territories, the population will mix in more prosperous regions, most of which will go to Russia. It is shown that all the economic results achieved in the agro-industrial complex of the Central Asian states are directly related to land irrigation. It is recommended that, within the framework of the functioning of the ICWC, the Central Asian states involve representatives of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in the work of the commission, at the level of a multilateral format, by adopting a package of interstate agreements, to resolve issues of water extraction from the Amu Darya River, for the needs of agriculture and industry in the Central Asian region.

Long-term meteorological characteristics and extreme climate indices over Tirupati: a rapidly developing tropical city

Tirupati’s climate has undergone significant changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns. While there has been a consistent increase in rainfall during the southwest monsoon, there is a concerning long-term trend of a decrease in total annual precipitation over the last 30 years. The city has experienced a rise in wet days during both the southwest and northeast monsoons, yet a recent decrease over the past three decades. Heavy precipitation events, particularly during the southwest monsoon, have shown a positive trend, whereas there have been no significant changes in heavy rainfall days during the northeast monsoon. Temperature trends reveal that there has been a warming scenario, with a significant positive trend in annual maximum temperatures and a consistent annual rise in mean minimum temperatures. A substantial decrease in cold and very cold days, especially during the last 30 years, suggests a broader warming trend impacting seasonal temperature variations in Tirupati. These findings highlight the complex interplay of monsoons, temperature variations, and changing precipitation patterns in Tirupati's climate over the years.

Mapping forest phenological shift in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats: Response to climate change

In the present study, the spatiotemporal alterations in phenological metrics were analyzed in different forest types of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR), Western Ghats, India with special reference to the impacts of changing climate on the forest phenology over two-phase periods (Phase 1: 2001–2010 and Phase 2: 2011–2020). Three phenological measures including the start/end/length of the season (SOS/EOS/LOS) were obtained using 16 days of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) dataset over the two decades. The study exhibited a gradual delay in SOS during phase 1, and an advancing SOS during phase 2 in the tropical forests of NBR. Delayed EOS was observed in all forest types in NBR barring Moist Deciduous Forests (MDF) during phase 1, while opposite trend of advancing EOS was observed in deciduous forests (MDF and DDF: Dry Deciduous Forests), but delayed EOS was observed in evergreen forests (SEF: Semi Evergreen Forests and WEF: Wet Evergreen Forests) during phase 2. These variations in forest phenology are linked with an increase in annual mean temperature (0.01 °C year−1) along with a decrease in annual mean precipitation (3.97 mm year−1) during 1950–2018 as observed using IMD-based meteorological datasets. The results highlighted reduction in the total LOS with a delayed SOS and advanced EOS in NBR, which were prevalent during phase 1 conversely to phase 2 due to the varied intensity of changes in climatic conditions. However, disaggregating decade-long intervals into 5-year segments enables a finer resolution analysis of phenological trends. The study contributes to the development of long-term strategies for forest ecosystem restoration under the influence of global climate change by providing an insightful understanding of the non-systematic shifts in forest phenology attributed by rising warming impacts and erratic precipitation patterns.

Unraveling the role of anthropogenic and hydrologic drivers with respect to the optical and molecular properties of dissolved organic matter and organic phosphorus in a P-contaminated river

Anthropogenic and hydrological drivers are key factors influencing the fate of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) in river runoff. However, how anthropogenic disturbances and hydrological conditions jointly affect the composition and characteristics of DOM and DOP in river runoff remains unclear. This study used fluorescence spectroscopy, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, and the stable water isotopes to interpret the chemical composition and properties of DOM and DOP as well as their linkages to anthropogenic disturbances and hydrological conditions in a typical P-contaminated tributary to the central Yangtze River. The results show in the wet season, the average abundance of humic-like components in DOM exceeded 60 %, while the average abundance of tryptophan-like components in DOM exceeded 50 % in the dry season. During the dry season, hydrological conditions had a greater impact on highly unsaturated DOM compounds compared to anthropogenic disturbances because a decrease in precipitation reduced the transport of terrestrial DOM into aquatic systems and increased water retention time in the river, promoting the production of unsaturated compounds from photochemistry. The effects of the two factors were similar in the wet season because active agricultural activities and intense precipitation jointly facilitated the entry of exogenous humics into the runoff, leading to the similar relative abundance of highly unsaturated DOM compounds associated with both factors. Anthropogenic disturbances had a greater impact on aliphatic DOM and DOP than hydrological conditions, which was associated with intense human activities in the watershed, such as phosphate mining, agricultural cultivation, and domestic sewage discharge. This study provides new knowledge about the composition, properties and underlying mechanisms of DOM and DOP in the P-contaminated watershed runoff.

Aerosol effects during heat waves in summer 2022 and responses to emission change over China

This study explores aerosol direct, indirect, and feedback effects on meteorology and fine particulate matter during heat waves of August 2022 over eastern China by using an online coupled regional climate–chemistry–aerosol model. In this period, aerosols exerted mean direct (DRE) and indirect (IRE) radiative effects of −3.9 Wm−2 and −2.4 Wm−2 at TOA, which totally caused a decrease in average surface air temperature by 0.3 °C over east China, accompanied by decreases in PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) and precipitation and an increase in PM2.5 concentration. With the anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2022, DRE apparently decreased while IRE changed little, leading to a decrease in total aerosol radiative effect (TRE) by 27% at TOA. The weakened TRE resulted in increases in surface air temperature and precipitation by 0.14 °C and 2.7 mm, respectively, on average over east China, with the maximum warming exceeding 0.5 °C in BTH (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei province). This study highlights a warming trend due to weakened TRE, which may exacerbate heat wave, and an increasing importance of aerosol IRE relative to DRE due to weak sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol change during the emission reduction.

Structure and Trends in Climate Parameters of Wine-Growing Regions in Slovenia

This study examined the structure and trends of climate parameters important for grape production from 1952 to 2022 in the wine-growing regions of Podravje, Posavje, and Primorska in Slovenia. Average and extreme temperature and precipitation data from six meteorological stations in three wine-growing regions were divided into annual and growing seasons. The results show that in the period 1991–2022, there was a warming in the growing season in all regions by 1.4–1.7 °C, except the southern part of Primorska (Koper station) 0.6 °C, compared to the reference period 1961–1990. The heat accumulation indices (GDDs and HI) increased significantly, which is mainly due to the increase in the maximum temperature in the growing season temperature (GST max) and the number of days with Tmax > 30 °C (NDT30). The NDT30 increased the most, by a factor of more than four. In the reference period (1961–1990), however, the trend in the number of hot days was even slightly negative. The mean seasonal temperature rose to around 17 °C in regions with a continental climate and to around 19 °C in the Mediterranean region, which could be reflected in the earlier ripening of the grapes. The trends show a decrease in total annual precipitation (AP) after 1991, but this was significant only at one inland location (Maribor), while the total precipitation during the growing season (GSP) decreased significantly at three locations (Maribor, Bilje, and Koper).

Towards understanding climate change impacts: monitoring the vegetation dynamics of terrestrial national parks in Indonesia

Monitoring vegetation dynamics in terrestrial national parks (TNPs) is crucial for ensuring sustainable environmental management and mitigating the potential negative impacts of short- and long-term disturbances understanding the effect of climate change within natural and protected areas. This study aims to monitor the vegetation dynamics of TNPs in Indonesia by first categorizing them into the regions of Sumatra, Jawa, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Eastern Indonesia and then applying ready-to-use MODIS EVI time-series imageries (MOD13Q1) taken from 2000 to 2022 on the GEE cloud-computing platform. Specifically, this research investigates the greening and browning fraction trends using Sen's slope, considers seasonality by analyzing the maximum and minimum EVI values, and assesses anomalous years by comparing the annual time series and long-term median EVI value. The findings reveal significantly increasing greening trends in most TNPs, except Danau Sentarum, from 2000 to 2022. The seasonality analysis shows that most TNPs exhibit peak and trough greenness at the end of the rainy and dry seasons, respectively, as the vegetation response to precipitation increases and decreases. Anomalies in seasonality that is affected by climate change was detected in all of the regions. To increase TNPs resilience, suggested measures include active reforestation and implementation of Assisted Natural Regeneration, strengthen the enforcement of fundamental managerial task, and forest fire management.

Variations in the Thermal Low-Pressure Location Index over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and Its Relationship with Summer Precipitation in China

The thermal and dynamic effects of the special topography of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau have a significant impact on rainfall in China. Utilizing NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data alongside precipitation observations from 1936 monitoring stations across China spanning from 1966 to 2022, this study establishes a location index for the thermal low-pressure center situated over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Temporal variations in the location index and summer (July) precipitation patterns in China were studied. Over the past six decades, thermal low-pressure centers have been predominantly positioned near 90° E and 32.5° N within a geopotential height of 4360 gpm, with their distribution extending from east to west rather than from south to north. The longitudinal and latitudinal position indices showed the same linear trend, with a negative trend before the 21st century, and then began to turn positive. Mutation analysis highlights pronounced weakening mutations occurring in 1981 and 1973, with the longitudinal index transitioning from an interannual cycle of approximately 6–8 years, while the latitudinal index displays quasi-cyclic oscillations of 5 and 8 and 12–14 years. Strong negative correlations are evident between the location indices and precipitation along the southeastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and in southern China, contrasting with the positive correlations observed in the central-eastern plateau, northwest, north, and the Huang-Huai region of China. The center of the thermal low is located to the east and north, corresponding to the deeper surface thermal low in most areas east of China, and the stronger transport of warm and wet air from the southwest wind, leading to greater convergence of southwest wind and northwest wind in China’s northern region. The south of the Yangtze River is controlled by the strengthening West Pacific subtropical high and South Asia high, resulting in a significant decrease in precipitation, and the warm and humid air from the southwest on the west side of the West Pacific subtropical high is also transported to the north, increasing the precipitation in most parts of the north.

The protective role of canopy cover against cork oak decline in the face of climate change

Abstract Cork oak (Quercus suber L.) mortality has reached alarming proportions in the last decades, exacerbated by climate change. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial in finding mitigation or adaptation strategies. This study conducts a diachronic analysis of cork oak mortality over 10 years using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) tools, focusing on Portugal’s Tagus Lezíria region. Topographic, edaphic and climatic variables were employed to create maps of edaphoclimatic aptitude for cork oaks. Dead trees were identified using remote sensing techniques and crown coverage was determined to calculate the trees’ mortality index. The diachronic analysis aimed the exploration of climate change effects on cork oak mortality. A decrease in precipitation was observed, significantly impacting stands with canopy cover below 40%. Furthermore, a negative effect of solar radiation identified only in stands with canopy cover of 40% suggested its role in cork oak decline. This study introduces a novel perspective, highlighting the protective effect of denser canopy cover against excessive solar radiation and the impact of reduced precipitation. The integrated and diachronic approach provides valuable information for adapting management strategies to climate change challenges.

Repeated birth injuries lead to long-term pelvic floor muscle dysfunction in the preclinical rat model

ObjectivesVaginal childbirth is a key risk factor for pelvic floor muscle injury and dysfunction, and subsequent pelvic floor disorders. Multiparity further exacerbates these risks. Using the rat model, validated for the studies of the human pelvic floor muscles, we have previously identified that a single simulated birth injury results in pelvic floor muscle atrophy and fibrosis. We hypothesized that multiple birth injuries would further overwhelm the muscle regenerative capacity, leading to functionally relevant pathological alterations long-term. Study DesignSprague-Dawley rats underwent simulated birth injury and were allowed to recover for 8 weeks before undergoing additional birth injury. Animals were sacrificed at acute (3- and 7-days post injury), subacute (21-, 28-, and 35-days post-injury), and long-term (8- and 12-weeks post-injury) time points post-second injury (N=3-8/time point), and the pubocaudalis portion of the rat levator ani complex was harvested to assess the impact of repeated birth injuries on muscle mechanical and histomorphological properties. The accompanying transcriptional changes were assessed by a customized NanoString panel. Uninjured animals were used as controls. Data with a parametric distribution were analyzed by a two-way analysis of variance followed by post hoc pairwise comparisons using Tukey’s or Sidak’s tests; non-parametrically distributed data were compared with Kruskal-Wallis test followed by pairwise comparisons with Dunn’s test. Data, analyzed using GraphPad Prism v8.0, San Diego, CA, are presented as mean ± SEM or median (range). ResultsFollowing the 1st simulated birth injury, active muscle force decreased acutely relative to uninjured controls (12.9±0.9 vs 25.98±2.1 g/mm2, P<0.01). At 4 weeks, muscle active force production recovered to baseline and remained unchanged at 8 weeks after birth injury (P>0.99). Similarly, precipitous decrease in active force was observed immediately after repeated birth injury (18.07±1.2 vs 25.98±2.1 g/mm2, P<0.05). In contrast to the functional recovery after a single birth injury, a long-term decrease in muscle contractile function was observed up to 12 weeks after repeated birth injuries (18.3±1.6 vs 25.98±2.1 g/mm2, P<0.05). Fiber size was smaller at the long-term time points after 2nd injury compared to the uninjured group (12 weeks vs uninjured control: 1485 (60.7-5000) vs 1989 (65.6-4702) μm2, P<0.0001). The proportion of fibers with centralized nuclei, indicating active myofiber regeneration, returned to baseline at 8 weeks post-1st birth injury, (P=0.95), but remained elevated as far as 12 weeks post-2nd injury (12 weeks vs uninjured control: 7.1±1.5 vs 0.84±0.13%, P<0.0001). In contrast to the plateauing intramuscular collagen content after 4 weeks post-1st injury, fibrotic degeneration increased progressively over 12 weeks after repeated injury (12 weeks vs uninjured control: 6. 7±1.1 vs 2.03±0.2%, P<0.001). Prolonged expression of pro-inflammatory genes accompanied by a greater immune infiltrate was observed after repeated compared to a single birth injury. ConclusionsOverall, repeated birth injuries led to a greater magnitude of pathological alterations compared to a single injury, resulting in more pronounced pelvic floor muscle degeneration and muscle dysfunction in the rat model. The above provides a putative mechanistic link between multiparity and the increased risk of pelvic floor dysfunction in women.

Antithrombin III Levels and Outcomes Among Patients With Trauma

Patients with trauma exhibit a complex balance of coagulopathy manifested by both bleeding and thrombosis. Antithrombin III is a plasma protein that functions as an important regulator of coagulation. Previous studies have found a high incidence of antithrombin III deficiency among patients with trauma. To assess whether changes in antithrombin III activity are associated with thrombohemorrhagic complications among patients with trauma. This cohort study was conducted from December 2, 2015, to March 24, 2017, at a level I trauma center. A total of 292 patients with trauma were followed up from their arrival through 6 days from admission. Data, including quantification of antithrombin III activity, were collected for these patients. Thromboprophylaxis strategy; hemorrhage, deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and pulmonary embolism screenings; and follow-up evaluations were conducted per institutional protocols. Data analyses were performed from September 28, 2023, to June 4, 2024. The primary study outcome measurements were associations between antithrombin III levels and outcomes among patients with trauma, including ventilator-free days, hospital-free days, intensive care unit (ICU)-free days, hemorrhage, venous thromboembolic events, and mortality. The 292 patients had a mean (SD) age of 54.4 (19.0) years and included 211 men (72.2%). Patients with an antithrombin III deficiency had fewer mean (SD) ventilator-free days (27.8 [5.1] vs 29.6 [1.4]; P = .0003), hospital-free days (20.3 [8.2] vs 24.0 [5.7]; P = 1.37 × 10-6), and ICU-free days (25.7 [4.9] vs 27.7 [2.3]; P = 9.38 × 10-6) compared with patients without a deficiency. Antithrombin III deficiency was also associated with greater rates of progressive intracranial hemorrhage (21.1% [28 of 133] vs 6.3% [10 of 159]; P = .0003) and thrombocytopenia (24.8% [33 of 133] vs 5.0% [8 of 159]; P = 1.94 × 10-6). Although antithrombin III deficiency was not significantly associated with DVT, patients who developed a DVT had a more precipitous decrease in antithrombin III levels that were significantly lower than patients who did not develop a DVT. In this cohort study of patients with trauma, antithrombin III deficiency was associated with greater injury severity, increased hemorrhage, and increased mortality, as well as fewer ventilator-free, hospital-free, and ICU-free days. Although this was an associative study, these data suggest that antithrombin III levels may be useful in the risk assessment of patients with trauma.

Nutritional Composition of Post-Catastrophic Foods.

In addition to current challenges in food production arising from climate change, soil salinization, drought, flooding, and human-caused disruption, abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS), e.g., a nuclear winter, supervolcano eruption, or large asteroid or comet strike, are catastrophes that would severely disrupt the global food supply and decimate normal agricultural practices. In such global catastrophes, teragrams of particulate matter, such as aerosols of soot, dust, and sulfates, would be injected into the stratosphere and block sunlight for multiple years. The reduction of incident sunlight would cause a decrease in temperature and precipitation and major shifts to climate patterns leading to devastating reductions in agricultural production of traditional food crops. To survive a catastrophic ASRS or endure current and future disasters and famines, humans might need to rely on post-catastrophic foods, or those that could be foraged, grown, or produced under the new climate conditions to supplement reduced availability of traditional foods. These foods have sometimes been referred to as emergency, alternate, or resilient foods in the literature. While there is a growing body of work that summarizes potential post-catastrophic foods and their nutritional profiles based on existing data in the literature, this article documents a list of protocols to experimentally determine fundamental nutritional properties of post-catastrophic foods that can be used to assess the relative contributions of those foods to a balanced human diet that meets established nutritional requirements while avoiding toxic levels of nutrients. © 2024 The Author(s). Current Protocols published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. Basic Protocol 1: Total digestible glucans Basic Protocol 2: Apparent protein digestibility Basic Protocol 3: Vitamins B1, B3, B9, C, and D2 by HPLC Basic Protocol 4: Total antioxidant activity (DPPH-scavenging activity) Basic Protocol 5: Total phenolic compounds (Folin-Ciocalteu reagent method) Basic Protocol 6: Mineral content by ICP-OES.

Phleum pratense-pollen adaptive variations and pollen microbiome investigation under different climatic regions and prospects of allergenicity.

Phleum pratense is an allergenic grass that pollinates in spring in Pakistan. Databases Allergenonline.org and Allergen.org record ten P. pratense allergens and their isoforms. Phl P 1, Phlp 5, and Phl p 11 are major P. pratense-pollen allergens with demonstrated basophil activity and skin test reactivity. Little is known about P. pratense pollen adaptive variations in different climatic regions and pollen-associated microbial diversity. In this study, we collected P. pratense-pollen and soils in the spring season 2022. Samples were collected from three climatic regions in Pakistan (R1, R2 and R3) with differences in mean monthly air temperature, mean monthly precipitation and elevation. The morphology of pollen was observed by light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), biochemical fingerprint analysis, and composition of pollen were investigated by fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The pollen-associated bacterial populations were identified through a Biolog GEN III microplate system. The pollen water-soluble proteins were isolated and stabilized in phosphate buffer saline (PBS) and tested for allergenicity responses through dot blots and western blots analysis. The morphology study found difference in pollen biochemical composition. Biolog identified Brevibacterium epidermidis and Pantoea agglomerans from P. pratense pollen. Protein extract quantification and sodium dodecyl sulfate-poly acrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) gel found decreased protein expression in R1 region pollen compared to R2 and R3 region pollen. Allergenicity studies found differential expression of beta-expansin and profilin allergens in pollen obtained from the three regions. Beta-expansin and profilin were suppressed in R1 pollen and expressed in compared to R2 and R3 pollen. This is the first study to identify B. epidermidis and P. agglomerans growth on P. pratense pollen. Variable allergen expression in P. pratense pollen has also been observed in different regions. Soil pH, an increase in mean monthly temperature and a decrease in mean monthly precipitation correlated with pollen biochemical composition, and reduced beta-expansin and profilin expression involved in pollen growth and development. The findings of this research are unique, which enhances basic knowledge and understanding of P. pratense-pollen associated microbiota and climate change impacts on the pollen allergen expression.

Biochar effects on crop yield variability

Context or ProblemNumerous studies have demonstrated that biochar application can increase crop yield by improving soil properties and health. Yet, these studies, however, neglected how biochar alters yield variability across years – reflecting the yield stability. Objective or Research questionThis study aimed to investigate the effects of biochar application on crop yield variability. MethodsPublished data from 38 experimental sites were collected from the Web-of-Science. Two-thirds of the data were originated from three main staple crops: maize, wheat, and rice. The remaining were from rapeseed, soybean, sweet potato, and peppermint. Biochar effects on crop yield and its variability as well as their driving factors were analyzed by linear mixed models depending on soil conditions, field management practices, and climate types. ResultsBiochar increased the crop yield globally by 14 %, especially in soils with low pH (< 5.5), low nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs (≤ 120 kg N ha−1, < 35 kg P ha−1), with high biochar inputs (≥ 20 Mg ha−1), and under crop rotation. Biochar increased crop yields by 12 % in short-term (≤ 5 years) and 21 % in long-term (> 5 years) experiments. Biochar increased yield variability by 42 % in acidic soils (pH < 5.5) and by 24 % with low N inputs (≤ 120 kg N ha−1), mainly because its liming and fertilization effects were short-lasting within the first few years. The yield variability after biochar application decreased with the increase in mean annual temperature, inter-annual variabilities of temperature and precipitation, but with the decrease in mean annual precipitation in the growing season. Yield variability under biochar increased in short-term experiments by 27 %, but there was no change (0 %) in long-term experiments because of the higher yield gains and resistance to fluctuating weather conditions. Therefore, crop yield variability decreased with increasing yield in long-term experiments. ConclusionsBiochar application increased short-term variability of crop yields, but its long-term variability remained unaffected. Implications or SignificanceThis study highlights that biochar can support steadily future crop production in the long run.

Regional Climate Change and Drought Dynamics in Tunceli, Turkey: Insights from Drought Indices

Global warming and climate change are causing temperatures to rise, which is having a negative impact on water resources. Climate change is a worldwide problem that affects and will continue to affect the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in many regions of the world. Tunceli region in Turkey, which until 10 years ago was known as an environmentally friendly city with abundant water resources and frequent rainfall, is experiencing a decrease in precipitation during the snowy winter season. This situation has made the investigation of climate change impacts an important issue in the region. Therefore, effective climate change adaptation strategies need to be developed. To determine these strategies, in this study, we assessed long-term drought conditions using multiple drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Normal Precipitation Index (PNI), and Aridity Index (AI). The SPI and RDI analyses were performed in annual reference periods on a time scale of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months using temperature, precipitation, and evaporation data. Consequently, the SPI and RDI results were compared, and both indices show similar behavior in dry, wet, and normal seasons. Nevertheless, RDI shows less variation between different time scales, which is an advantage over SPI and is probably due to the inclusion of potential evapotranspiration in RDI. The variations in PNI between humid and dry sub-humid categorizations throughout the years, combined with the AI results, indicate that the Tunceli region predominantly experiences a climate ranging from dry sub-humid to semi-arid. This study could help decision-makers take effective measures to become more resilient to climate change in temperate climate regions and take important steps toward sustainable water resources management.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Precipitation and Temperature and their Influence on Groundwater in Ballia

A study examined the impact of long-term pre- and post-monsoon precipitation and temperature on groundwater level fluctuations in 17 blocks of Ballia District. The study used 100 years of daily precipitation data (1917-2016) and 62 years of daily temperature data (1951-2012) from the Indian Meteorological Department. Seasonal analysis was performed using pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter data. The Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope were applied. The spatial variability of rainfall and temperature was mapped using the IDW technique in ArcGIS. Significant annual precipitation decreases were found in Murlichapra and Sear blocks. Maniar and Pandah blocks showed precipitation increases. An increasing pre-monsoon trend was observed in several blocks, while post-monsoon trends varied. Groundwater levels fluctuated across Ballia, with a notable decrease of 2.1 m in Bairia Block from 2006 to 2016.

Assessing Drought Vulnerability in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Using High-Frequency Data

This research investigates the exposure of plant species to extreme drought events in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, employing an extensive dataset collected from 205 automatic weather stations across the region. Meteorological indicators derived from hourly data, encompassing precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature, were utilized to quantify past, current, and future drought conditions. The dataset, comprising 10,299,236 data points, spans a substantial temporal window and exhibits a modest percentage of missing data. Missing data were excluded from analysis, aligning with the decision to refrain from using imputation methods due to potential bias. Drought quantification involved the computation of the aridity index, the analysis of consecutive hours without precipitation, and the classification of wet and dry days per month. Mann–Kendall trend analysis was applied to assess trends in evapotranspiration and maximum air temperature, considering their significance. The hazard assessment, incorporating environmental factors influencing tree growth dynamics, facilitated the ranking of meteorological indicators to identify regions most exposed to drought events. The results revealed consistent occurrences of extreme rainfall events, indicated by positive outliers in monthly precipitation values. However, significant trends were observed, including an increase in daily maximum temperature and consecutive hours without precipitation, coupled with a decrease in daily precipitation across the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. No significant correlation between vulnerability ranks and weather station latitudes and elevation were found, suggesting that geographical location and elevation do not strongly influence observed dryness trends.

The combined impact of climate change scenarios and land use changes on water resources in a semi-arid watershed

This study proposes a combined approach involving climate change scenarios and varied land use and land cover (LULC) projections in a semi-arid watershed (El Grou) located in Morocco. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with land use scenarios generated using the Cellular Automata-Markov model for three dates (2030, 2040, and 2050) and future climate projections from the CMIP5 model under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Future precipitation and temperature projections indicate a decrease in annual precipitation by 5 % to 34 % and an increase in average temperatures, particularly during the summer months. LULC changes reveal a significant decline in agricultural lands and forests, with an expansion of bare soil by 2050. These changes, analyzed through three SWAT models representing different time periods, indicate a decrease in surface runoff by 41 % to 73 %, a reduction in total water yield by 21 % to 53 %, and a decline in groundwater recharge, posing significant challenges for water resource management and ecosystem health. The study underscores the need for integrated land and water management strategies, incorporating climate change adaptation measures, to ensure sustainable water resource utilization and build resilience in the El Grou watershed and similar semi-arid regions.

Climate Impacts of the Millennium Eruption of Changbaishan Volcano

AbstractThe Millennium Eruption of Changbaishan Volcano is heralded as one of the largest explosive eruptions in the Late Holocene and produced huge quantities of tephra. The petrogeochemical method estimates that the Millennium Eruption emitted up to 45 Tg of sulfur into the atmosphere—more than in the Tambora eruption in 1815 CE, which caused “a year without a summer” across the Northern Hemisphere in 1816 CE. Despite such massive emissions, evidence for this eruption's climate impact in East Asia remains elusive. To explain this contradiction, this study used 67 high‐resolution tree‐ring‐width records from the Northern Hemisphere spanning the past two millennia, complemented by volcanic sensitivity experiments conducted with the Community Earth System Model. Results reveal a prevailing decreasing/negative trend in the proxy records during the potential eruption period, with 945 CE marking the most notable negative anomaly, suggesting that the Millennium Eruption likely occurred in 945 CE rather than 946 CE. Sensitivity experiments, corroborated by proxy records, demonstrate that the Millennium Eruption induced substantial negative temperature anomalies at middle and high latitudes, alongside an increase in Meiyu‐Baiu‐Changma precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwestern Japan and a decrease in precipitation in India, northern China, and the South China Sea in the first post‐eruption year. This study offers a novel perspective on the climate impact of the Millennium Eruption, reconciling previous discrepancies regarding its climate impact.

Potential Near‐Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses

AbstractNear‐term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models.