Regional Climate Change and Drought Dynamics in Tunceli, Turkey: Insights from Drought Indices

Abstract

Global warming and climate change are causing temperatures to rise, which is having a negative impact on water resources. Climate change is a worldwide problem that affects and will continue to affect the frequency and intensity of natural disasters in many regions of the world. Tunceli region in Turkey, which until 10 years ago was known as an environmentally friendly city with abundant water resources and frequent rainfall, is experiencing a decrease in precipitation during the snowy winter season. This situation has made the investigation of climate change impacts an important issue in the region. Therefore, effective climate change adaptation strategies need to be developed. To determine these strategies, in this study, we assessed long-term drought conditions using multiple drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Normal Precipitation Index (PNI), and Aridity Index (AI). The SPI and RDI analyses were performed in annual reference periods on a time scale of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months using temperature, precipitation, and evaporation data. Consequently, the SPI and RDI results were compared, and both indices show similar behavior in dry, wet, and normal seasons. Nevertheless, RDI shows less variation between different time scales, which is an advantage over SPI and is probably due to the inclusion of potential evapotranspiration in RDI. The variations in PNI between humid and dry sub-humid categorizations throughout the years, combined with the AI results, indicate that the Tunceli region predominantly experiences a climate ranging from dry sub-humid to semi-arid. This study could help decision-makers take effective measures to become more resilient to climate change in temperate climate regions and take important steps toward sustainable water resources management.