Abstract
Drought is a natural phenomenon caused by the variability of climate. This study was conducted in the Songhua River Basin of China. The drought events were estimated by using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which are based on precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. Furthermore, drought characteristics were identified for the assessment of drought trends in the study area. Short term (3 months) and long term (12 months) projected meteorological droughts were identified by using these drought indices. Future climate precipitation and temperature time series data (2021–2099) of various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were estimated by using outputs of the Global Circulation Model downscaled with a statistical methodology. The results showed that RCP 4.5 have a greater number of moderate drought events as compared to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Moreover, it was also noted that RCP 8.5 (40 events) and RCP 4.5 (38 events) showed a higher number of severe droughts on 12-month drought analysis in the study area. A severe drought conditions projected between 2073 and 2076 with drought severity (DS-1.66) and drought intensity (DI-0.42) while extreme drying trends were projected between 2097 and 2099 with drought severity (DS-1.85) and drought intensity (DI-0.62). It was also observed that Precipitation Decile predicted a greater number of years under deficit conditions under RCP 2.6. Overall results revealed that more severe droughts are expected to occur during the late phase (2050–2099) by using RDI and SPI. A comparative analysis of 3- and 12-month drying trends showed that RDI is prevailing during the 12-month drought analysis while almost both drought indices (RDI and SPI) indicated same behavior of drought identification at 3-month drought analysis between 2021 and 2099 in the research area. The results of study will help to evaluate the risk of future drought in the study area and be beneficial for the researcher to make an appropriate mitigation strategy.
Highlights
Drought is a natural phenomenon which has a serious impact due to varying precipitation duration, intensity, and distribution [1]
The Precipitation Decile index was used under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 to predict the drying trends in the research area
Different future scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 were evaluated with shorter and longer time scales to select the best scenarios for future projected droughts based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for the study area
Summary
Drought is a natural phenomenon which has a serious impact due to varying precipitation duration, intensity, and distribution [1]. Standardized Precipitation Index and Reconnaissance Drought Index were applied by using the monthly meteorological data for the assessment of drought intensity in Cyprus [6] and a similar study was conducted in Malta [7]. Stream Flow Drought Index and Standardized Runoff Index were used for the characterizing of hydrological drought. A large number of drought indices have been introduced for characterizing various aspects of drought anomalies across space and time, which include the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standardized Precipitation Index. One more drought index called Reconnaissance Drought Index was introduced by [19] and showed that the evaluation of drought events by using meteorological drought indices leads to accurate assessment if there is accurate balance between input and output and this cannot be attained by the drought indices like Standardized Precipitation Index without any output estimation. Researchers recommended that for studying drought monitoring and food security, it is much better to use SPI with other
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