Precautionary Strategies Research Articles

Concerning RNA-guided gene drives for the alteration of wild populations.

Gene drives may be capable of addressing ecological problems by altering entire populations of wild organisms, but their use has remained largely theoretical due to technical constraints. Here we consider the potential for RNA-guided gene drives based on the CRISPR nuclease Cas9 to serve as a general method for spreading altered traits through wild populations over many generations. We detail likely capabilities, discuss limitations, and provide novel precautionary strategies to control the spread of gene drives and reverse genomic changes. The ability to edit populations of sexual species would offer substantial benefits to humanity and the environment. For example, RNA-guided gene drives could potentially prevent the spread of disease, support agriculture by reversing pesticide and herbicide resistance in insects and weeds, and control damaging invasive species. However, the possibility of unwanted ecological effects and near-certainty of spread across political borders demand careful assessment of each potential application. We call for thoughtful, inclusive, and well-informed public discussions to explore the responsible use of this currently theoretical technology.

Stock assessment of small yellow croaker in the East China Sea based on multi-source data

Integrating the standardization of abundance indices into stock assessment models to examine the population dynamics of small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis, was tested through a fisheries mixture matrix constructed with multiple data types. A precautionary approach to fishery control rules was adopted based on the logistic and Fox surplus production models, incorporating data from fishery-independent surveys, fisherydependent catch-per-unit-of-effort(CPUE), and regional harvests. A risk-averse control rule, derived from model parameters and associated uncertainty, was developed to manage fisheries for maximum sustainable yield(MSY)and rapid rebuilding of overfished stocks. The proposed control rule consists of relative biomass and relative fishing mortality rate in a deterministic environment and conservative harvest in a fluctuating environment. The results of the Fox model explained 68% of the variance observed for the stock abundance, while the logistic model explained 57%. The parameter estimates were different and the Fox model predicted a much larger decrease in population abundance at the MSY, intrinsic growth rates(r), and initial exploited levels. We compared the fishing mortality/current stock biomass from 1998 to 2006 with the fishing- and stock-related reference points, respectively. The results in a determined environment revealed that small yellow croaker stock in the East China Sea was overfished in most years, while the population was not always overfished during the entire period, although its biomass has been decreasing since 1999. However, both the Fox and logistic surplus production models indicate that the small yellow croaker fishery has been consistently over harvested in the fluctuating environment. Harvesting at a conservative level with either the Fox or logistic model could increase small yellow croaker abundance substantially with little decrease in harvest. At a conservative harvest level, there is a 24.7% increase in biomass with a 6.1% decrease in yield with the logistic model and a 44.5% increase in biomass with a 9.4% decrease in yield with the Fox model. The MSY assessment results from the Fox surplus production model was more conservative than that of logistic model, which is concordant with precautionary fisheries management strategies.

Precautionary Principles in Constitutional Law

This article examines precautionary strategies of constitutional design and interpretation. In many contexts, constitutional actors and theorists justify rules of constitutional law as precautionary measures against various political risks, including the abuse of power by incumbent officials, dictatorship, majoritarian oppression, and biased adjudication. After providing an analytic taxonomy of such arguments, I examine criticisms of constitutional precautions offered by early proponents of national power such as Hamilton, Marshall and Story, and by New Dealers such as Frankfurter and Jackson. These critics argued that precautionary constitutionalism might be futile, might jeopardize other values, and might even prove perversely self-defeating, if and because the precautions create or exacerbate the very risks they were intended to prevent. Accordingly, these critics argued for a “mature position” that requires constitutional rulemakers to consider all relevant risks of action and of inaction. I identify a strictly negative but nonetheless valuable function of that approach: by laundering out one-sided arguments and placing all relevant risks before constitutional rulemakers, the mature position improves the process of constitutional design and interpretation.

Coping with Complexity in Baltic Sea Risk Governance: Introduction

Coping with Complexity in Baltic Sea Risk Governance: Introduction

Aspects of the biology and fisheries of an economically important sparid Dentex macrophthalmus (Bloch 1791) in the Namibe province, Angola

The sparid Dentex macrophthalmus is a widespread, important fishery species along most of the West African coast from southern Namibia to the Mediterranean. In southern Angola it is an important artisanal species targeted predominantly by handline fishers. A biological and fisheries study was conducted on this species in southern Angola between June 2008 and July 2009. It was the dominant species in the artisanal fishery, accounting for 99% of the sparids captured and 67% (by mass) of the total catch. The life history of D. macrophthalmus was characterised by slow growth (females: Lt = 309[1 − e−0.06(t + 5.43)], males: Lt = 248[1 − e−0.16(t − 1.77)]), advanced age at maturity (females: 7.4 years, males: 6.0 years) and high longevity (females: 36 years, males: 38 years). The sex ratio was 1:1 male:female. The length- and age-frequency distributions and macroscopic observations suggested that the species is a late gonochorist. Males and females reached 50% maturity at 151 and 166 mm fork length respectively. Although individuals with ripe gonads were found during most of the year, the peak spawning period appeared to be in December and January. Despite a life history that renders D. macrophthal-mus vulnerable to overexploitation, only 38% of artisanal fishers noticed a decline in the catches of this species. Potential reasons for this include: technology creep; limited pressure on the juvenile portion of the stock as a result of late recruitment (above the length of 50% maturity); the ‘basin affect’, whereby depleted areas are reseeded by areas (e.g. deeper water) inaccessible to the linefishery; and a deep-water reserve of large individuals. It is recommended that precautionary management strategies be implemented until the age estimates are revised by the countries in which this species forms significant fisheries.

Assessment and management of Cape horse mackerel Trachurus capensis off Namibia based on a fleet-disaggregated age-structured production model

The Cape horse mackerel stock off Namibia is assessed using a fleet-disaggregated age-structured production model including historical International Commission for the Southeast Atlantic Fisheries (ICSEAF) and current data. Data from acoustic biomass surveys, on commercial catch per unit effort and on commercial catch-at-age, were used to estimate current stock status over a range of model specifications. A management tool, the so-called management monitor graph, was introduced in order to track past management relative to stock status. Target, limit and precautionary reference points, decision rules and harvesting strategies, according to which the stock should be managed, are described and tested. The target reference point was set at maximum sustainable yield (MSY), the precautionary reference point at 80% of MSY and the limit reference point at 30% of MSY. Owing to some inconsistencies in the dataseries, evaluation of the current state of the resource is challenging, but estimates are that the resource is around the MSY level, somewhere between 250 000 and 300 000 t.

Using Structured Decision Making to Help Implement a Precautionary Approach to Endangered Species Management

Endangered species protection is a significant risk management concern throughout North America. An extensive conceptual literature emphasizes the role to be played by precautionary approaches. Risk managers, typically working in concert with concerned stakeholders, frequently cite the concept as key to their efforts to prevent extinctions. Little has been done, however, to evaluate the multidimensional impacts of precautionary frameworks or to assist in the examination of competing precautionary risk management options as part of an applied risk management decision framework. In this article we describe how decision-aiding techniques can assist in the creation and analysis of alternative precautionary strategies, using the example of a multistakeholder committee charged with protection of endangered Cultus Lake salmon on the Canadian west coast. Although managers were required to adopt a precautionary approach, little attention had been given to how quantitative analyses could be used to help define the concept or to how a precautionary approach might be implemented in the face of difficult economic, social, and biological tradeoffs. We briefly review key steps in a structured decision-making (SDM) process and discuss how this approach was implemented to help bound the management problem, define objectives and performance measures, develop management alternatives, and evaluate their consequences. We highlight the role of strategy tables, employed to help participants identify, alternative management options. We close by noting areas of agreement and disagreement among participants and discuss the implications of decision-focused processes for other precautionary resource management efforts.

Community Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields in Jerusalem: A Pilot Study

ISEE-538 Objective: To map spatial distribution and hot spots for ELF and RF-MW in Jerusalem. Materials and Methods: Using maps and field surveys of high tension power lines (HTPL) (161 kV), location of cell phone antennas and transformer boxes, areas of potential risk for radiation exposure are identified in 3 Jerusalem neighborhoods. A Magnum 310 is used to measure ELF at a frequency of 40 to 310 Hz. A CA 43 Fieldmeter was used to measure RF-MW at a frequency of 0.1to 2500 MHz. Both use a 1-minute time weight. Measurements were taken at prechosen locations throughout the city, with findings mapped by GIS. Results: Readings >2 mG, (peak: 120 mG) were recorded near all 8 electrical transformer rooms. Three of these sites are in hallways with adjacent walls to residential apartments. In 1 older residential neighborhood (Beit HaKerem), the peak level in 3 residential locations close to HTPL was 1.5 mG. In contrast, 4 residential locations near newer HTPL (French Hill) readings ranged from 2.8 mG and 9.2mG. In 8 sites near cell phone antennae, intensity levels were <2 μW/cm2; however, 1 site recorded an intensity of 6.7 μW/cm2 at a distance of 20 meters from the source. Conclusions: Prior information from maps on location of power lines, transformers, and antennae helped us identify areas of potential concern for hot spots. The Benevento Statement of ICEMS has questioned the adequacy of INCRIP standards and has recommended application of precautionary strategies. The findings stated the case for notifying families living in apartments adjacent to transformers concerning hazard and potential risk and providing protective shielding. Municipal strategies for citywide exposure abatement include expanded identification of hot spots, burial of power lines, fiber optic last mile technologies, and other measures to reduce exposures to ELF and RF-MW to lowest possible levels.

Science policy for risk governance.

Rather than regarding risk governance as a burden, science should embrace it as an opportunity to build public trust

Fish-Farming and the Precautionary Principle: Context and Values in Environmental Science for Policy

The paper starts with the assumption that the Precautionary Principle (PP) is one of the most important elements of the concept of sustainability. It is noted that PP has entered international treaties and national law. PP is widely referred to as a central principle of environmental policy. However, the precise content of PP remains largely unclear. In particular it seems unclear how PP relates to science. In section 2 of the paper a general overview of some historical and systematic features of PP are presented. In section 3 a specific case is discussed in greater detail. It is claimed that the escape of farmed salmon from fish cages in the Sea, and its eventual invasion of the breeding places of the wild salmon up the rivers, must be regarded a proper case for applying PP. Yet there is no single PP-strategy. Instead, four different strategies are presented, and all of them can be regarded precautionary strategies in the light of PP. The choice between these strategies is based upon personal values. In section 4 of the paper a general analysis is given which relates these different value perspectives to basic differences in risk aversion, which in turn are related to differing conceptions of nature and/or society. In the concluding section 5 some general consequences of the foregoing analysis are outlined.

Women, Crime, and Fear

This article examines women's fear of crime. Through an examination of current attempts to address women's fear of crime, it is argued that women's anxiety about danger is largely a fear of men and reflects women's location in a gendered world. Confronting women's fear means confronting the danger women face at the hands of their partners, acquaintances, clients, and coworkers, as well as other potential violence from men inside and outside the home. In contrast, government advice tries to assuage women's fear by suggesting that women adopt individually managed precautionary strategies to minimize encounters with male strangers. Good lighting, good transport, adequate child care, decent education, safe houses, and safe relationships—one without the others is inadequate to address women's needs and, by extension, women's fear of crime.