Pre-disaster Mitigation Research Articles

A Bayesian decision network–based pre-disaster mitigation model for earthquake-induced cascading events to balance costs and benefits on a limited budget

Cascading disasters induced by earthquakes amplify the severity of the initial impact on environment. Although decisionmakers may face uncertainty, an effective mitigation strategy is critical in environmental management. We propose an earthquake-induced cascading disaster mitigation–Bayesian decision network (ECDM-BDN) model to assess pre-disaster mitigating strategies under limited budgets from the perspective of systematic thinking. This model graphically represents the complex relationship among various variables in a seismic hazard system and resistance system based on disaster system theory. It can predict the triggering of cascading events through probabilistic reasoning and identify the key variable accountable for the range of outputs observed through sensitivity analysis. In addition, cost–benefit analyses are carried out by combining Bayesian decision network utility nodes and dynamic programming to obtain a balance between costs and benefits in the context of limited budgets. An earthquake-induced liquefaction served as a case study to demonstrate the proposed model’s effectiveness. Experimental results indicate that the ECDM-BDN model can balance the costs and effects of each pre-disaster mitigating strategy as well as select the optimal one according to the utility value. The proposed model can perform a “white-box” decision-making process, which is expected to guide earthquake-induced cascading event pre-disaster mitigation in cases of limited budgets.

Exploring the relationship between risk perception and public disaster mitigation behavior in geological hazard emergency management: a research study in Wenchuan county

Modern disaster emergency management emphasizes the collaborative participation of multiple parties. Exploring the relationship between risk perception and mitigation behaviors of the public is essential to develop the effectiveness of public disaster reduction and improve the performance of emergency management. Based on risk perception theory, a research framework on the relationship between risk perception and mitigation behaviors was constructed by selecting two phases of emergency management: pre-disaster preparation and mid-disaster emergency response. The results showed that self-efficacy positively influenced the pre-disaster mitigation behaviors and emergency evacuation behavior. Perceived severity only positively influenced the emergency evacuation behavior in mid-disaster. Additionally, pre-disaster evacuation drills positively influenced the emergency evacuation behavior and the behavior of asking for help from government departments in mid-disaster. The results indicate that pre-disaster mitigation behaviors can have a significant impact on mid-disaster behaviors only if pre-disaster mitigation behaviors provide clear guidance for the emergency phase of the disaster. Therefore, pre-disaster mitigation activities should be carried out strategically with the aim of improving the public’s emergency self-help capabilities in disasters, which provides theoretical and practical guidance for improving the effectiveness of public disaster mitigation and improving the government’s disaster emergency management system.

"The Influence of Education using the Teams Games Tournament (TGT) Method to Enhance Knowledge of Pre-Disaster Preparedness for Mount Kelud Eruption in Students of Penataran 03 Elementary School."

Abstract: Preparedness is an activity to anticipate pre-disaster mitigation so that each individual is always ready and prepared to face natural disasters. This study aims to determine the knowledge of school-aged children about pre-disaster preparedness for the eruption of Mount Kelud. This study used a pre-experimental method with a sample size of 31 respondents taken through purposive sampling technique. Data collection was done using a questionnaire. The results of the study showed a significant increase in knowledge. The pre-test results showed that there were no respondents in the good knowledge category, but after being given education using the Time Games Tournament method, there were 23 respondents (74%) in that category. Additionally, the category of sufficient knowledge increased from 0% to 26%, and the category of poor knowledge decreased from 100% to 0%. The Time Games Tournament method is an effective learning technique for delivering pre-disaster preparedness knowledge in a fun way. This method can also increase students' spirit, enable them to actively participate, foster a sense of togetherness and mutual respect, and improve creativity. Therefore, educators and health workers are expected to apply an educational program using the Time Games Tournament learning method in conducting health education. Keywords: preparedness, education, Team Games Tournament method, school age child

"The Influence of Education using the Teams Games Tournament (TGT) Method to Enhance Knowledge of Pre-Disaster Preparedness for Mount Kelud Eruption in Students of Penataran 03 Elementary School."

Abstract: Preparedness is an activity to anticipate pre-disaster mitigation so that each individual is always ready and prepared to face natural disasters. This study aims to determine the knowledge of school-aged children about pre-disaster preparedness for the eruption of Mount Kelud. This study used a pre-experimental method with a sample size of 31 respondents taken through purposive sampling technique. Data collection was done using a questionnaire. The results of the study showed a significant increase in knowledge. The pre-test results showed that there were no respondents in the good knowledge category, but after being given education using the Time Games Tournament method, there were 23 respondents (74%) in that category. Additionally, the category of sufficient knowledge increased from 0% to 26%, and the category of poor knowledge decreased from 100% to 0%. The Time Games Tournament method is an effective learning technique for delivering pre-disaster preparedness knowledge in a fun way. This method can also increase students' spirit, enable them to actively participate, foster a sense of togetherness and mutual respect, and improve creativity. Therefore, educators and health workers are expected to apply an educational program using the Time Games Tournament learning method in conducting health education. Keywords: preparedness, education, Team Games Tournament method, school age child

Resilience patterns of urban road networks under the worst-case localized disruptions.

Recent events, including COVID-19, extreme floods, and explosion accidents, commonly induced localized closures and disruptions of urban road networks (URNs), resulting in significant impacts on human mobility and socio-economic activities. Existing studies on URN resilience to those events mainly took few cases for empirical studies, limiting our understanding on the URN resilience patterns across different cities. By conducting a large-scale nationwide resilience analysis of URNs in 363 cities in mainland China, this study attempts to uncover the resilience patterns of URNs against the worst-case single (SLDs) and multiple localized disruptions (MLDs). Results show that the distance from the worst-case SLD to the city center would be less than 5km in 62.3% cities, as opposed to more than 15km in 14.3% cities. Moreover, the average road network resilience of cities in western China could be 7% and 13% smaller than that of the eastern cities under the worst-case SLDs and MLDs, respectively. This inequality in the worst-caseresilience is partly attributable to variations in urban socio-economic, infrastructure-related, and topographic factors. These findings could inspire nationwide pre-disaster mitigation strategies to cope with localized disruptions andhelp transfer insights for mitigation strategies against disruptive events across cities.

Disaster Management and Early Warning System: Human Rights Perspective

The origins of a disaster lie in nature and as well as in various human activities. Economically well-off and technologically advanced countries have failed in discovering proper solutions to disasters. The mere presence of hazard does not lead to disaster, there must be vulnerability also. Disaster plus vulnerability leads to damage. Making high probabilities from an undesirable event to low probabilities is disaster management. Risk analysis plays an important role in disaster management. Disaster management means the organization, planning and indication of measures preparing for, responding to and, initial recovery from disasters. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing play a very important role in disaster management and risk reduction. Early warning system is very useful in taking care of measures relating to pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness measures, emergency relief and reconstruction efforts. The problems and multiple human rights challenges posed by natural disasters are mainly of humanitarian nature and it is observed that the human rights of disaster victims are not sufficiently taken care of. In June 2006, the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) adopted Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters, which are aimed at protecting the rights of persons affected by natural disasters. Human rights-based approach should be considered as one of the measures to increase accountability for warning and it must be ensured that warnings should reach the each and one who are residing in disaster prone areas.

A Review of Spatial Variations of Multiple Natural Hazards and Risk Management Strategies in Pakistan

Natural hazards are dynamic and unpredictable events that are a continuous threat to global socio-economic development. Humans’ reactions to these catastrophes are influenced by their proximity to the hazards and their ability to anticipate, resist, cope with, and recover from their consequences. Due to climatic changes, the risk of multiple natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Pakistan. There is a pressing need to understand the spatial discrepancies of natural hazards due to climate change and identifying the regions that require special measures to increase resilience, achieve adaptation, and sustainable development goals. This paper synthesizes the related literature to understand spatial variations of natural hazards due to climate changes across Pakistan. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Landslide Catalog (NASA-GLC), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) are utilized to analyze spatial discrepancies and vulnerabilities to natural hazards. This study unveils that Pakistan’s current risk analysis and management strategies seem to be obsolete compared to global trends. Because of spatial variations of hazards, most research work on hazard risk assessments and risk management focuses on a single hazard, neglecting the co-occurrence impact of different natural hazards. Very limited studies are included in comprehensive multi-hazard risk strategies. Therefore, in Pakistan, risk management would require integrated multi-hazard risk assessment approaches to detect, analyze, measure, and evaluate various natural hazards, their effects, and interconnections. Moreover, the Pakistan governmental institutes dealing with natural hazards should focus on pre-disaster mitigation and resilience techniques instead of investing only in post-disaster relief activities.

Application of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment to Understand the Earthquake Hazard in Attock City, Pakistan: A Step towards Linking Hazards and Sustainability

Within the last three decades, twelve major earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) have jolted Pakistan and contributed to a heavy death toll and an economic loss of billions of dollars, which is immense for any underdeveloped country. Despite the generalized description of seismic hazards in various regions of Pakistan, densely populated cities still require a detailed and integrated vulnerability analysis to overcome the impact of a significant earthquake. This study aims to integrate seismic hazard assessment schemes to understand the vulnerability of Attock city against an earthquake. It initially evaluates the threat from an earthquake due to tectonic activity in the region, splits the region (about 200 km radius) into six seismic zones and uses area source parameters. The ground motion prediction equations compatible with the study area’s seismotectonic environment are also used in this study. Peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration are critical features of ground motions. The site classification is carried within Attock city, indicating the presence of SB (foundation condition with Vs30 = 760 m/s), SC (foundation condition with Vs30 = 400 m/s) and SD (foundation condition with Vs30 = 300 m/s). The peak ground accelerations for a return period of 475 years at the SB, SC and SD sites are estimated as 0.23 g, 0.28 g and 0.30 g, respectively. Uniform hazard spectra are obtained for each site classification at three return periods (475, 975 and 2475 years). Another possible threat can be the local site conditions of the study area, as Attock city exists on the unlithified sediments of upper Pleistocene to Recent alluvial deposits. That is why microtremor recordings are conducted at 20 sites within Attock city to understand the fundamental frequency (f0), horizontal to vertical spectral amplitude (A0) and Kg parameter, a seismic vulnerability index. The values of f0 are found between 0.6 and 9 Hz and A0 is observed between 2.1 and 5 Hz, whereas the Kg is estimated between 0.24 and 20 Hz. Despite evidence of the seismic vulnerability of Attock city, the current building designs and infrastructure development are not synchronized with the uniform hazard response spectra and the soil amplification, thus enhancing the exposure of the study area to disaster during a major earthquake. This study will be instrumental in pre-disaster mitigation strategies for urban planners and policymakers.

PEMETAAN JALUR EVAKUASI TSUNAMI DI KOTA BENGKULU BERBASIS ARCGIS HUB

Bengkulu city is an area facing the Indo-Australian tectonic plate, resulting in frequent earthquakes above 5 on the Richter scale and triggering the potential for a tsunami. This research was conducted in 9 sub-districts of Bengkulu City and aimed to design a geographic information system for pre-disaster mitigation that provides a visual form of tsunami exposure and allows users to carry out analysis independently route point locations to evacuation sites. The method used is overlaying and scoring the map of distance from the coastline, distance from the river, elevation and slope, so as to obtain an exposure map that can be used as a reference in conducting network analyst closet facility. The data that has been analyzed is then uploaded to ArcGIS Online to be customized and configured as WebGIS. The results showed that there were 7 sub-districts that had high levels of exposure and had routed 58 incident points to 17 temporary evacuation sites.

SOSIALISASI APE (ALAT PERAGA EDUKATIF) UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KESIAPSIAGAAN BENCANA DI SDN 05 BADES, KECAMATAN PASIRIAN, KABUPATEN LUMAJANG

Bades Village, Pasirian District, Lumajang Regency is a village whose area is located between two active mountains, namely Mount Semeru and Mount Lamongan and a coastline that stretches from west to east so that there is the potential for extreme waves and tsunamis. The geographical location of Bades Village causes the potential for several natural disaster threats such as tsunamis, landslides, and earthquakes. Therefore, disaster mitigation education is needed from an early age, especially for elementary school students. Disaster mitigation education can be done in several ways, one of which is using Educational Props (APE). The purpose of this devotion is to raise awareness and respond to the arrival of unpredictable disasters. So that these students are expected to have knowledge of pre-disaster mitigation and in times of disaster and can share their knowledge with the community. In addition, the method used in this socialization activity gives a new color in its delivery to elementary school students. The method used is the observation method, then held a socialization with the students of SDN 05 Bades, Kecamtan Pasirian, Lumajang Regency. The subjects of socialization were 40 elementary school students in grades 4 –6. The result of this service and research is an increase in knowledge of mitigating natural disasters that occur. Students are enthusiastic and interested in this socialization so that they are able to apply the material that has been given when the disaster comes.

Once bitten, twice shy? Does the public adopt more disaster preparedness practices after experiencing more disasters?

Pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness have been recommended as effective methods for reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience in the face of disasters. This study used representative data collected in China Taiwan to examine the factors that influence disaster preparedness. This research location is ideal to examine disaster-related topics because of the frequency of disasters and the higher disaster prevention awareness of the public. This study revealed the following results: (1) Disaster damage, rather than disaster experiences, significantly affects the public's disaster preparedness behaviors; (2) Risk perception is a significant mediating variable in the relationship between disaster damage and disaster preparedness; (3) The factors influencing disaster preparedness differ across binary and interval dimensions, where the former refers to whether the public adopts disaster preparedness behaviors, and the latter refers to the degree of the disaster preparedness behaviors. Specifically, trust in government significantly affects whether the public adopts disaster preparedness behaviors, while it does not impact the degree of those behaviors; (4) Younger, more educated respondents with higher family income, religious beliefs, and higher social capital are more likely to prepare for disasters. Future interventions may best be focused on older people, respondents with a child or elderly people in the family, and people with lower family income. These people are more vulnerable to disasters, and society would benefit from improving their willingness to prepare for them.

Behavioral Economic Consequences of Disasters: A Basis for Inclusion in Benefit-Cost Analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an analytical framework for estimating the behavioral effects of disasters and their economic consequences. The reduction of these losses represents the benefits of pre-disaster mitigation and post-disaster recovery. We provide conceptualizations, definitions, classifications, and a formal welfare analysis of this category of economic consequences. We also examine methods used to measure behavioral reactions to fear for insight into improving their delineation. Because we are interested in a comprehensive assessment of behavioral effects, we also include resilience adjustments and extend our initial partial equilibrium analysis to the general equilibrium level. The analysis is intended to serve as the basis for the legitimate inclusion of behavioral consequences of disasters in benefit-cost analysis.

ANALISIS PENGGUNAAN MEDIA SOSIAL DALAM MITIGASI BENCANA BANJIR DI DKI JAKARTA TAHUN 2020

This study aims to explain how the use of twitter in disseminating disaster information in order to increase public awareness of natural disasters, namely the twitter account @BPBDJakarta. The research method used is qualitative research with descriptive analysis techniques using Twitter content analysis, one of the government-owned social media accounts using the Nvivo 12 Plus application. In addition, the research also uses data triangulation to obtain the required data. The source is obtained from information from credible online newspapers that have been registered with the press council, so that the information submitted can be justified. The results of this study conclude that the Jakarta Regional Disaster Management Agency's twitter account coordinates all units involved in disaster management. The information posted by BPBD DKI Jakarta on its twitter account is a form of disaster management stages which include pre-disaster (preparedness, early warning and mitigation), during a disaster (emergency response and disaster management), and post-disaster (rehabilitation and reconstruction). The contribution of hastags twitter on the Twitter account of the Jakarta Regional Disaster Management Agency for flood disaster mitigation in this case this Twitter account acts as a government medium to listen to information obtained from # hashtags that often appear on its twitter account.

A review on applications of urban flood models in flood mitigation strategies

As a result of climate change, urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, which can cause devastating effects, both in terms of loss of life and property. Therefore, an accurate assessment of urban flood processes and improved pre-disaster mitigation strategies in threatened areas is essential. Urban flood modeling enables users to understand, assess, and forecast flood conditions as well as their impact. For effective flood modeling, especially in highly urbanized floodplains, model selection based on the contextual requirements is a challenge. This review provides a systematic overview of the application of urban flood modeling approaches from the perspective of urban flood strategy design sequences. In this review, recent research advances are presented as well as suggestions for future research topics that will improve the availability and reliability of urban flood modeling methods. The results of this review will help urban flood managers and potential users balancing model complexity and needs while undertaking effective flood modeling tasks.

Kesiapsiagaan Bencana Berbasis Komunitas Perkotaan

[Urban Community-based Disaster Preparedness] Geographical, hydrological, demographic, and sociological conditions of Indonesia make Indonesia's territory prone to disasters (natural, non-natural, and social). The history of disasters shows a trend of increasing the number of victims and types of disasters. Various efforts are needed in anticipating the possibility of a disaster that will occur, so that preventing risks, reducing risks or even eliminating disaster risks by reducing vulnerability and or increasing the limited capacity of the community is the simplest solution to the complexity of the disaster problem. Disaster risk is the probability of a potential disaster with the consequent damage being a key element. A threat (danger) only becomes a disaster if it affects vulnerable communities. The community is a key element in dealing with disasters, besides being the first to know about a disaster incident, the community is not only an object but also a subject that must be empowered in disaster management. This means that whatever efforts in disaster management must lead to the community. Strategies are needed to increase community resilience to an increasing number of disaster risks. Pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness activities are needed to reduce the vulnerability of a community and to protect the community whenever a disaster occurs. This research contributes to the current knowledge of the urban community preparedness index in terms of disaster preparedness. This descriptive quantitative research uses univariate analysis as the blade of analysis with a sample of 204 respondents who live in the DKI Jakarta area, and were selected randomly. This study uses primary data. Data collection was carried out through an online google form questionnaire directly to residents of DKI Jakarta Province. The results showed that the population of DKI Jakarta Province has various socio-economic characteristics, 77.94% of respondents have had disaster experience, 46.67% of the Material Preparedness Index, 82.52% of the Knowledge and Awareness Index for Preparedness, and 52.94% of the Preparedness Index. Act. Therefore, disaster risk reduction requires the efforts of all stakeholders such as the community (individuals and communities), government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and even the business world.

An Analysis on Pre-disaster Mitigation in FEMA, in the United States

An Analysis on Pre-disaster Mitigation in FEMA, in the United States

Spatial model of land subsidence mitigation at lowland areas

South Sumatera is one of the provinces with a large number of lowlands in Indonesia consisting of tidal land and lowland swamps, one of which is located in Tanjung Api-Api. The conversion of lowlands into built-up areas will cause physical, socio-economic, environmental, and public health impacts. One of the impacts arising from the development of settlements and infrastructure in lowland areas is land subsidence and flooding. The purpose of this research is to create a model for mitigating land subsidence in lowland areas spatially. The spatial model is carried out by weighting with Analytical Hierarchy Processes (AHP) and then mapping mitigation efforts that will be carried out based on the potential for land subsidence. The results show that if the lowland area is developed into an industrial and residential area, it will have an impact on land subsidence with a moderate to high potential level. Based on the zoning of the potential for land subsidence, the best pre-disaster mitigation efforts to do are choosing the type of construction according to the type of soil, conserving groundwater, maintaining infiltration areas and green open spaces, and regional spatial planning.

Differences in disaster preparedness between urban and rural communities in China

Pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness activities are necessary to reduce vulnerability in a society and to protect people whenever disasters occur. Although disaster preparedness and protective behaviors have attracted scholars worldwide, there has been little investigation into the differences between the preparedness of rural and urban households. This study examines the associations of various influencing factors with household disaster preparedness in urban and rural China, where urban-rural differences remain substantial in spite of rapid economic growth. Data from a large area affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were used. Results from linear regression models showed that the urban-rural differences in disaster preparedness were mainly explained by the socioeconomic factors, such as education, income, and social status (being a CCP member). Community activities intended to reduce the risk of disaster can also encourage an individual to carry out preparedness activities. Interventions may be needed to focus on low socioeconomic status households to improve their disaster preparedness. Community activities may serve as an important approach to design interventions.

A collaboration–resilience framework for disaster management supply networks: a case study of the Philippines

PurposeThe increasing risk of natural disasters is challenging humanitarian actors to create resilient disaster management systems. However, the role of the private sector in disaster management operations (DMOs) is not as prominent as the role played by (inter)governmental agencies. This article aims to investigate the relationship of collaboration and resilience in disaster management supply networks (DMSNs).Design/methodology/approachSupply network resilience criteria were defined as robustness, flexibility, velocity and visibility based on the literature review. DMSN capabilities were identified characterising each resilience criterion through the development of the Collaboration–Resilience (COLRES) Analysis Framework for DMSNs. This theoretical model was then applied to an empirical case study in the Philippines using semi-structured interviews for data gathering.FindingsA total of 46 cross-sector collaboration activities were identified across four disaster management phases and linked to the resilience criteria. A causal analysis of each collaboration activity and its outcome was conducted to identify relationships between collaboration types and resilience constructs. Based on these results, patterns were identified, and dependencies between collaboration and resilience were defined. Collective DMSN resilience (DMSNRES) enabled by existing cross-sector collaboration activities was evaluated against a future disaster scenario to identify resilience gaps. These gaps were used to recognise new cross-sector collaboration opportunities, thereby illustrating the continuous process of resilience building.Research limitations/implicationsThis research provides new insights on how private sector is involved within a DMOs through collaboration with the government and other NGOs. It augments existing literature on private sector involvement in DMOs where common perception is that the sector is only involved in short-term response and recovery activities. This study finds that the private sector can be operationally involved not just in post-disaster activities, but also in mitigation and preparation phases as well. This then sets a new baseline for further research on private sector involvement within DMOs. As this study provided a novel framework to analyse collaboration activities and its impact to DMSN resilience, future work could be done by applying the model to further cases such as other countries'. DMSNs, or to more specific contexts such as inter-organisational collaborations rather than big sectors. A more detailed assessment method against a future disaster will prove relevance for the model in providing practical insights on how resilience can be built in DMSNs.Practical implicationsThis research proposed a novel DMSN collaboration-resilience (COLRES) model (Figure 11) to analyse existing processes in preparation for specific disasters. Practitioners may be able to use this model with the goal of identifying resilience gaps to fill and continuously improve their processes. The model also provides practitioners the lens to improve processes with the perspective on collaboration to complement government and NGO efforts and expertise with those of the private sector. For the private sector perspective, this research provides new insights on how they can be more involved with the community to provide more sustainable and long-term contributions to the society.Social implicationsWith disasters becoming more complex and frequent by the day and as humanitarian actors focus on improving their expertise, the need for every piece of the society to contribute to disaster risk reduction is continuously intensified. This research shows that each sector of the society can take part in disaster management operations to reduce unpredictability, lives impacted and increase speed of response and recovery. Each sector of the society can be of great contribution not only during post-disaster response and recovery but also during pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness phase. As such, this research echoes the call for everyone to be involved in disaster risk reduction and mitigation as a way of life.Originality/valueThis research ultimately finds that cross-sector collaboration builds resilience in DMSNs through capacity building, redundancy sourcing, information reliability and logistics responsiveness. This study shows that the private sector is able to go beyond existing short-term partnerships by participating in the 46 collaboration activities identified across four disaster management phases in order to build resilience in DMSNs.

Optimal Budget Allocation to Improve Critical Infrastructure during Earthquakes

AbstractThis article studies the integrated role of three infrastructure management agencies with responsibilities that span from pre‐disaster mitigation and preparedness actions to post‐disaster response operations during earthquakes. Each agency's actions are constrained by a given budget that is assigned to that agency by a master decision‐maker (the federal government). This article presents a bi‐level Stackelberg game where the master decision‐maker allocates a total budget between the agencies with the objective of minimizing the earthquake death toll. A meta‐heuristic particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal solution of the Stackelberg game. Results show that in lower budgets, it is better to invest in the emergency response agency and the transportation agency. Furthermore, the results indicate that excessive investment in the transportation agency without adequate investment in the emergency response agency is inefficient.