Application of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment to Understand the Earthquake Hazard in Attock City, Pakistan: A Step towards Linking Hazards and Sustainability

Abstract

Within the last three decades, twelve major earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) have jolted Pakistan and contributed to a heavy death toll and an economic loss of billions of dollars, which is immense for any underdeveloped country. Despite the generalized description of seismic hazards in various regions of Pakistan, densely populated cities still require a detailed and integrated vulnerability analysis to overcome the impact of a significant earthquake. This study aims to integrate seismic hazard assessment schemes to understand the vulnerability of Attock city against an earthquake. It initially evaluates the threat from an earthquake due to tectonic activity in the region, splits the region (about 200 km radius) into six seismic zones and uses area source parameters. The ground motion prediction equations compatible with the study area’s seismotectonic environment are also used in this study. Peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration are critical features of ground motions. The site classification is carried within Attock city, indicating the presence of SB (foundation condition with Vs30 = 760 m/s), SC (foundation condition with Vs30 = 400 m/s) and SD (foundation condition with Vs30 = 300 m/s). The peak ground accelerations for a return period of 475 years at the SB, SC and SD sites are estimated as 0.23 g, 0.28 g and 0.30 g, respectively. Uniform hazard spectra are obtained for each site classification at three return periods (475, 975 and 2475 years). Another possible threat can be the local site conditions of the study area, as Attock city exists on the unlithified sediments of upper Pleistocene to Recent alluvial deposits. That is why microtremor recordings are conducted at 20 sites within Attock city to understand the fundamental frequency (f0), horizontal to vertical spectral amplitude (A0) and Kg parameter, a seismic vulnerability index. The values of f0 are found between 0.6 and 9 Hz and A0 is observed between 2.1 and 5 Hz, whereas the Kg is estimated between 0.24 and 20 Hz. Despite evidence of the seismic vulnerability of Attock city, the current building designs and infrastructure development are not synchronized with the uniform hazard response spectra and the soil amplification, thus enhancing the exposure of the study area to disaster during a major earthquake. This study will be instrumental in pre-disaster mitigation strategies for urban planners and policymakers.