Updating a probabilistic seismic hazard model for Sultanate of Oman

Abstract

Earthquake Monitoring Center (EMC) at Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) initiated evaluating the seismic hazard in the Sultanate of Oman in 2009. EMC has produced the first probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard maps for Oman in 2012 and 2013, respectively. In the current study, the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is revisited to provide an updated assessment of the seismic actions on the Sultanate. The present study has several advantages over its predecessor: using an updated homogeneous earthquake catalogue, recently developed seismic source model; inclusion of epistemic uncertainties for the source models, recurrence parameters, maximum magnitude, and more recent and applicable ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Epistemic uncertainties were treated using a combination of the best available databases within a properly weighted logic tree framework. Seismic hazard maps in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral accelerations (SA) at the bedrock conditions (VS = 760 m/s) for 475- and 2475-year return periods were generated using the classical Cornell-McGuire approach. Additionally, uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the important population centers are provided. The results show higher values at the northern parts of the country compared to the hazard values obtained in the previous study.