China Power Research Articles

Does the climate change communication power behave consistently before and after the “dual carbon” target is put forward? Spatial-temporal differences based on Weibo

Climate change communication power is an important variable to characterize the influence of climate change information. To deeply understand the public's climate change communication power in China under the “dual carbon” context, this study selected Weibo as the source for obtaining climate change texts and analyzed the spatial-temporal differences of climate change communication power by using a web crawler and a communication power model. Through the comparative analysis of the two periods before and after the “dual carbon” goal was put forward, it is found that: (1) After the “dual carbon” goal was put forward, the public's discussion on climate change was more widely distributed, which formed a concerned circle of climate change in coastal areas, but the extensive discussion on climate change did not mean the enhancement of climate change communication. (2) Celebrities play an important role in the communication of climate change, but users with strong communication power for climate change do not mean that the amount of forwarding must be high. (3) The communication power of climate change is generally in a state of fluctuation, and economically developed areas have stronger communication power. (4) Keywords such as “carbon footprint” and “green technology” are the most powerful in the situation after the “dual carbon” goal was put forward. Based on the comparative analysis, the study grasps the role orientation and division of labor as a whole, which will provide a basis for formulating regional climate change-related policies more pertinently. The introduction of z-index into the study of climate change transmission in Weibo is an innovation in the application scenario of z-index.

Short-term coordinated hybrid hydro-wind-solar optimal scheduling model considering multistage section restrictions

With the large-scale integration of wind and solar power in China, the consumption of these intermittent renewable energies is severely restricted by the capacity of the transmission channel, which leads to massive renewable energy curtailment. Therefore, it would be beneficial to use limited transmission channels to absorb as much renewable energy as possible. In this paper, we propose a chance constraint-based multistage nested hydro-wind-solar coordinated optimal scheduling model to aid peak shaving while ensuring maximum power generation. First, multistage partitioned section chance constraints are introduced to mitigate the power congestion of the transmission network. Then, based on the principle of using hydropower to complement the uncertainty of wind and solar power, the compensation chance constraints are considered. To quantify the uncertainty of wind and solar power, their prediction errors are analyzed using the Gaussian mixture model. Finally, the model is recast and linearized into a mixed integer linear programming model. A case study of a hydro-wind-solar base in Southwest China demonstrates that the proposed model can effectively leverage the regulation ability of hydropower to coordinate multiple power sources with the restrictions of multistage transmission sections, effectively alleviating the congestion of transmission channels and reducing the curtailment of renewable energy.

Tracking Carbon Flows from Coal Mines to Electricity Users in China Using an Ensemble Model.

Accurately tracking carbon flows is crucial for preventing carbon leakage and allocating responsibility for reducing CO2eq emissions. In this study, we developed an ensemble model to effectively track carbon flows within China's power system. Our approach integrates coal quality tests, individual power plant datasets, a dynamic material-energy flow analysis model, and an extended version of an interconnected power grid model that incorporates transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. Our results not only provide accurate quantification of unit-based CO2eq emissions based on coal quality data but also enable the assessment of emissions attributed to T&D losses and emission shifts resulting from interprovincial coal and electricity trade. Remarkably, for CO2eq emissions from coal-fired units, the disparity between the guideline and our study can be as high as [-95%, 287%]. We identify Guangdong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces as the major importers of both coal and electricity, responsible for transferring nearly half of their user-based emissions to coal and power bases. Significantly, T&D losses, often overlooked, contribute to 15-20% of provincial emissions at the user side. Our findings emphasize the necessity of up-to-date life cycle emissions and spatial carbon shifts in effectively allocating emission reduction responsibilities from the national level to provinces.

Support carbon neutrality target — Which flexible power source is the best option for China?

China has set a goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 and is determined to increase wind and solar power to 1200 GW by 2030, even though it already has the world's largest installed capacity of renewables. However, the lack of flexibility in the power system will limit the development of a higher proportion of renewable energy. This paper evaluates the applicability of different types of flexible power sources in China for the first time. Above all, it describes the current situation of China's power industry and the necessity of increasing flexible power sources, establishes an evaluation system from the perspectives of benefit, opportunity, cost & risk, then determines 19 evaluation criteria. The BOCR-ANP-TOPSIS method was used to evaluate the system, where the ANP method determines the weights and the TOPSIS method ranks the alternatives. The result shows that pumped storage hydropower has the highest overall ranking, followed by the flexibility transformation of coal-fired power. Coupled with sensitivity and comparative analysis, valuable findings that will help future energy policymakers are reported.

Impact of adaptive water-saving and phaseout strategies on water withdrawal in China's coal-fired power industry under carbon constraints

Coal-fired power generation occupies a dominant position in China's power sector and is known for its high water requirement. Limited research exists on how water withdrawal for coal-fired power generation responds to policy and technical factors, as well as spatial variations in the future. To address this gap, this study utilizes a geospatial dataset at the coal-fired power unit level and an improved calculation method for water withdrawal to investigate the evolving trend of water withdrawal in coal-fired power generation, considering the influences of carbon emission reduction, adaptive water-saving measures, and phaseout strategies. The results demonstrate that the improved water withdrawal calculation method yields superior simulation outcomes compared to existing approaches. The study reveals substantial variations in coal-fired power generation under different carbon emission reduction scenarios. Despite the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario where coal-fired power generation continues to dominate the power sector, implementing various adaptive water-saving scenarios results in national water withdrawal estimates ranging from 42.9 to 59.4 billion m3 in 2050. In contrast, water withdrawal is reduced by 37.6% to 42.9% under the 2.0℃ target scenario and by 86.5% to 97.5% under the 1.5℃ target scenario. Technological advancements play a crucial role in reducing water withdrawal for coal-fired power generation, particularly in northwest China. The transformation of cooling systems significantly decreases water withdrawal nationwide and in the regions that predominantly relied on once-through cooling. The deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in coal-fired power plants in the northwest region creates short-term pressure on regional water resources. Under strict carbon emissions constraints, adopting the phaseout strategy with guaranteed lifetime results in relatively higher water withdrawal for coal-fired power generation, and the variations in coal-fired power plants configuration across provinces lead to different responses in water withdrawal changes when facing the same unit retirement strategy.

The role of technical change in low-carbon transformation and crises in the electricity market: A CGE analysis with R&D investment

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global energy and electricity crisis. Considering China's carbon neutrality target, predicting the power market's response to the mandate of energy transformation and the impact of the energy crisis is particularly critical. Technical change is essential for the power sector to solve these crises; however, limited studies have systematically evaluated the role of endogenous technical change in low-carbon transformation of the power sector from an economy-wide perspective. Therefore, applying a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, this study examines the potential trajectory of research and development (R&D)-based endogenous technical change, investigating the impact of different technical changes on China's power sector, the overall socio-economy, and the energy environment. The relevant results are threefold. First, carbon pricing combined with subsidising renewable electricity is an effective way to reduce emissions to achieve low-carbon transformation in the power sector. This approach can cause relatively moderate losses for the macro-economy and households' welfare. It can also significantly improve the renewable share, electrification rate and synergistic abatement effects on sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Second, shifting R&D inputs from fossil fuel power generation technology to renewable power technologies should be considered to advance the deep decarbonisation of the power sector. This approach can further improve the renewable share and electrification rate and enhance synergistic abatement effects; however, it can also slightly increase the macro-economic loss. Third, to alleviate the negative impacts to the macro-economy, it is advisable to consider increasing the R&D inputs of various sectors extensively, rather than only increasing that in the power sector. This approach can effectively alleviate the negative impacts on the socio-economy while improving the renewable share with the best synergistic abatement effects.

Order of Power in China’s Courts

AbstractThis article presents a theory of the order of power to explain the dynamics and interaction between the political and legal orders in China’s courts. This theory posits that the political order is embodied in the extensive administrative ranking system (ARS) of the People’s Republic of China and has a systematic impact on the legal order regardless of the subject matter. The ARS is a system that regulates power relations between various institutional and personal actors in all key power fields, including courts. According to this theory, power, as stratified by the ARS, relativizes law during the processes of legal implementation, application, and enforcement. This theory provides a coherent explanation of judicial behavioural patterns in different subject matters, such as the centralization of criminal investigations in some crimes but not others, the distribution of corruption in China’s courts, and the outcome patterns of administrative litigation. Whilst the conventional wisdom sees that the political and the legal orders in China’s courts are partitioned based on the subject matter, this theory asserts the opposite: the impact of the political order is systemic, comprehensive, and applicable to the entire legal field. This article fills a knowledge gap in Chinese law and politics, where the ARS has received little attention except for recent studies on administrative litigation. The article also identifies two overlooked but distinctive features of the ARS—its multidimensionality and interconnectivity—our understanding of which is disproportionately poor in relation to their significance.

Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on China's Power Consumption: A comprehensive Analysis Derived from Monthly Electricity Consumption Forecasts

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly altered the total and pattern of electricity consumption across Chinese industries and households. However, current research has not fully and accurately measured the impact of the pandemic. This paper builds a novel discrete gray seasonal model (referred to as the FDDGSM model) to predict the scenario of different domestic electricity-consuming sectors and residential electricity consumption without a pandemic backdrop, by comparing it with the actual electricity consumption in 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's electricity consumption is better revealed. Through empirical analysis, the following conclusions are reached in this study: (1) The novel discrete grey season model shows more stable and accurate characteristics in forecasting time series with seasonal trends. (2) The pandemic did not significantly impact electricity consumption in primary industries and households, while actual usage in secondary and tertiary industries was significantly lower than expected in a non-pandemic scenario. (3) The impact on secondary and tertiary industries varied in magnitude and duration, and they differed in the rate of recovery in electricity consumption.

Determinants of the embodied CO2 transfers through electricity trade within China

There is unequal spatial distribution of resource endowment, population density, industrial structure, and economic development with diverse differences in labor, energy, and capital productivities in China. However, previous studies paid little attention to the determinants of CO2 transfers embodied in electricity trade. In this study, we use both the absolute and comparative advantage theories to reveal the determinants of embodied CO2 transfers through electricity trade within China. Results show that China's electricity sector has higher labor productivity but lower asset efficiency and energy productivity than that of mining and manufacturing sectors. The large-scale electricity trade alleviates the shortage of electricity supply in developed regions by outsourcing to the less-developed regions, reduces the unequal spatial distribution of coal and natural gas reserves, and changes CO2 flow embodied in power grid. Econometric analysis shows that coal reserve contributes to the increase of embodied CO2 emission, while natural gas reduces the embodied CO2 emission. The regional differences in the opportunity cost of labor productivity of non-electricity sector are the dominant factor of the embodied CO2 transfers through electricity trade within China, while asset efficiency and energy productivity are not significant in the regressions. Our findings could provide details about China's power grid expansion when confronting climate mitigation in the future.

A long-term or a short-term decision when planning the decarbonisation transition pathway of power systems? A case study of China

Achieving ambitious climate goals would require enormous structural modifications in fossil energy-dominated power systems. Unpredictability of the future makes a cautious decision necessary in the low-carbon transition in power systems. Choosing a proper decision method when planning could reduce cost losses when unpredictable emergencies have a disruptive impact on a power system. This is extremely crucial for countries whose power system is still expanding rapidly because their development costs are already high enough and the decarbonisation pathway is uncertain and influenced a lot by the way of decision. Therefore, in this paper, we present a multi-region load despatch transition pathway planning model for power systems with huge demand growth, which can be used for both short-term and long-term decision methods. By comparing the transition costs of various decision-making methods, the decision with lower costs can be obtained. China is taken as a case study. Results show that in order to minimise the cost loss caused by inestimable incidents, China's power system adopts long-term or short-term decisions based on expectations before 2036 or 2041. The cost loss of up to 500 billion CNY can be reduced by selecting a decision method with lower costs according to the rough expectation.

KOLABORASI DIPLOMASI PERTAHANAN INDONESIA-PERANCIS

It has been more than a decade since an intense research interest in regional power emerged in international relations. After the cold war, the urge to build regional power increased. This study aims to explain the Indonesia-France defense diplomatic collaboration in reducing tensions between the United States allies and the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific region. The researcher uses a qualitative method with an analytical descriptive research design. The researcher realizes that the international climate for alliance countries with non-aligned countries is quite profitable. The researcher describes the concept of defense diplomacy as part of a military campaign from three different perspectives. First, the strength of the strategic environment of the US alliance and the rise of China's power in the Indo-Pacific region. Second, ASEAN's regional strategic strength in facing global forces. Third, French-Indonesian Defense Diplomacy in building the Indo-Pacific regional order. The researcher concludes that the power of Comparative Regionalism contains several approaches that can reduce tensions between major powers, especially America's allies and China in the Indo-Pacific region

Forecasting clean energy power generation in China based on a novel fractional discrete grey model with a dynamic time-delay function

Clean energy plays an essential role in responding to environmental crises. Accurate forecasting of clean energy power generation can provide necessary references for the formulation of energy policy. This paper proposes a novel fractional discrete grey model with a dynamic time delay function (DTDFF-DGM (1,1)) to forecast clean energy power generation. This model introduces the fractional accumulation operator and the dynamic time-delay function into the discrete grey model, which ensures the priority of new information in the original data and improves the model's adaptability to different sample data. The optimal parameters of the model are calculated by the dynamic linkage between the fitting error and the test error, which effectively avoids the overfitting problem. Empirical studies have proved that the model has better prediction accuracy compared to other methods. Finally, the proposed model is employed to forecast clean energy power generation in China. The results show that from 2020 to 2025, the overall growth rate of hydropower, wind power and nuclear power in China will be 9.27%, 119.61% and 36.38%, respectively. Based on the discussion of the forecast results, relevant policy suggestions were made. This paper realizes the transformation from a static model to a dynamic model in methodology and promotes the sustainable development of clean energy power generation in application.

CO2 emissions of constructing China's power grid towards carbon-neutral target: Based on top-down and bottom-up integrated model.

Power sector is the largest industrial emitter in China, and renewable energy development would contribute to the large-scale construction of power grid. Mitigating carbon emissions of power gird construction is extremely important. So, the objective of this study is to understand embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction under carbon neutrality target, and then put forward to policy implications of carbon mitigation. This study, based on top-down and bottom-up integrated assessment models (IAMs), investigates carbon emissions of power grid construction towards 2060, through identifying the key driving factors and forecasting their embodied emissions in line with China's carbon neutrality target. Our results show that, the increase of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dominates the increase in embodied carbon emissions of power grid construction, while energy efficiency and energy structure improvement contribute to the decrease. Large scale renewable energy development promotes the power grid construction. In 2060, total embodied carbon emissions would increase to 1105.7 Million tons (Mt) under the carbon neutrality target. However, the cost and key carbon-neutral technologies should be re-considered to ensure the sustainable electricity supply. The results could provide data reference and decision-making of designing power construction and mitigating carbon emissions of power sector in future.

Promoting the Healthy Development of Youth Sports in the Context of Sports and Health Integration

From the combination of physical medicine to physical health integration, the health problem of adolescents has always been the focus of the country and the people of the whole country. In the important stage of transformation from a sports power to a sports power in China, the health problem of adolescents is particularly important. The research revolves around the “three systems”, the integration of sports and health and youth sports, explore the relationship between the three, aimed at promoting the healthy development of youth sports, help our country become a sports power faster.

Exploration of low-cost green transition opportunities for China's power system under dual carbon goals

To address the global challenge of climate change and achieve sustainable development, decarbonizing the electric power system in China is considered the most imperative since the power sector is highly related to the decarbonization of other sectors. Significantly, China faces the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand coupling with its commitment to of emission mitigation. This study examines the low-carbon transition and sustainable development of China's power system through 2035 using a multi-stage mixed-integer linear programming generation planning model by matching future demand growth trajectories with the least-cost power supply path. The electric power installed capacity, power generation, carbon emission, power-generating cost, and abatement potentials are analyzed through various scenarios. It is found that China's electricity demand will reach 9800–13300 Terawatt-hours in 2035 due to rapid electrification. Every 1 TWh increase in electricity demand requires 0.41–0.53 GW of newly installed capacity. Reducing the proportion of coal-fired power generation and replacing it with renewable energy is inevitable. However, for every 1 GW of coal power retired, 3.7 GW of renewable energy needs to be built. Incorporating electricity demand-side management is crucial to developing an effective decarbonization pathway for China's power sector, along with inclusive policies and technologies to meet China's requirements for dependable, affordable, and sustainable electricity. The results of this paper can provide a reference for policy makers in China as well as other emerging economies.

Assessing the impact of Wind Power Investment Utilizing Electricity

China has been actively developing wind power for several decades, and its installed capacity has grown rapidly, which can be largely attributed to the favorable policy support and subsidies provided to wind power investments. However, China's resource-based strategy for wind power layout may not be fully taking into account the information on electricity demand. Therefore, the authors aim to identify the key factors driving the regional distribution of wind power in China, with a particular focus on the relationship between wind farm investments and local electricity demand. The study reveals that, compared to earlier stages of development, wind power installation growth is now more concentrated in regions with high electricity demand rather than just in resource-rich areas. Moreover, the model results demonstrate that the leading effect of demand on wind investment is more pronounced in resource-rich regions than in other areas. Demand information and mechanism analysis highlight the significant role of zoning policies in moderating the impact of demand on wind power siting and investment.

Assessing the technical and economic potential of wind and solar energy in China—A provincial-scale analysis

An accurate assessment of wind and solar resources is important for China's future transition to clean energy and the achievement of its carbon-neutrality goals. Based on climate data, geographical information, and the latest technical and economic information, this work estimates the total technical and economic potential of wind and solar power in China and their distribution by province. The main conclusions drawn by analyzing the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the potential of wind and solar energy are as follows. (1) Both wind and solar energy have sufficient technical potential to support China's vision of carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) The potential is unevenly distributed spatially and is more concentrated in western and northern China, away from demand centers, with Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accounting for >76% of the total technical potential of onshore wind and solar energy. The offshore wind potential is fairly equally distributed in coastal provinces. (3) In the near-to-medium term (5–10 years), fully utilized local wind and solar resources could help to meet the requirements of the non-hydro Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and could significantly ease the urgency of building long-distance cross-province power transmission lines. For provinces with below-average RPS targets, the suggested non-hydro RPS targets could be further enhanced. (4) In the long term, the construction of adequate west-east and south-north transmission lines will remain essential to the construction of a national carbon-neutral power system.

Has the Wind Power Price Policy Promoted the High-Quality Development of China’s Wind Power Industry?—Analysis Based on Total Factor Productivity

The wind power price policy has promoted the rapid development of the wind power industry in China. However, China’s wind power industry is facing high-quality development problems such as wind curtailment and blind investment. Exploring the relationship between the change in wind power price policy and China’s high-quality development of wind power is of great significance for the energy system to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper constructs an SBM-GML global covariance model, calculates the total factor productivity of wind power in 30 provinces in China from 2015 to 2019 and conducts index decomposition, and selects provincial panel data from 2015 to 2019 to empirically test the impact of the wind power price policy on the total factor productivity of wind power in China. The results show that the wind power price policy can significantly improve the total factor productivity of wind power, and the results of the endogenous test and robustness test show the effectiveness of the model. The wind power price policy is helpful to promote the technological progress of wind power, affect the reduction of the price difference between wind power benchmark price and coal power benchmark price, and then promote the improvement of wind power total factor productivity so as to meet the policy requirements of wind power full grid parity. In addition, the impact of wind power price policy on the total factor productivity of wind power has obvious regional heterogeneity. Future price policy formulation should clarify industry development expectations, consider regional differences, and establish a sound, market-oriented electricity pricing mechanism.

How can China's power sector reform reduce carbon emissions? A long-term competition perspective

Challenges coexist with opportunities for achieving carbon neutrality through power sector reform. Based on the ongoing reform in China and generator-level data in 2019, we identify three channels through which the reform could affect carbon emissions. We analyze the theoretical mechanisms under a long-term average cost competition framework, evaluate the emission reduction potentials of the three channels, explore the obstacles in achieving these potentials, and propose corresponding solutions. We find the following: (1) By reshaping the generation competition between high-efficiency and low-efficiency coal-fired generators, the reform has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 205.4 million tons. However, considering the high financial costs of high-efficiency generators, realizing the full potential is difficult. (2) Administrative promotion of renewable energy could reduce carbon emissions by 311 million tons, but with large implicit expenses, which makes the promotion unsustainable. (3) The price dividend induced by the reform could increase carbon emissions by 98.1 million tons. To achieve emission reduction potentials in the first two channels and offset the rebound effect in the third channel, we propose explicitly pricing carbon. Without other supporting measures, a carbon price of over 400 Chinese yuan per ton of carbon dioxide is essential for the reform to eliminate barriers to its implementation.

A study on the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emission efficiency in China's provincial power industry

Promoting the low carbon development of the power industry is an essential path for China to achieve the “3060” dual carbon goal. This paper uses the SBM model and the Moran index to construct a carbon emission efficiency assessment system that meets the requirements of a high proportion of renewable energy access in China. The spatial and temporal evolution and correlation of the carbon emission efficiency of the power industry in 29 provinces in China were analyzed. The results show that the carbon efficiency of China's power industry has been increasing year by year since the 13th Five-Year Plan, and the overall pattern is that the periphery has led to the gradual development of the center, while the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China show a clear spatial correlation, with prominent policy and technology spillovers. The results may provide scientific guidance for efficiency improvements in each region.