Exploration of low-cost green transition opportunities for China's power system under dual carbon goals

Abstract

To address the global challenge of climate change and achieve sustainable development, decarbonizing the electric power system in China is considered the most imperative since the power sector is highly related to the decarbonization of other sectors. Significantly, China faces the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand coupling with its commitment to of emission mitigation. This study examines the low-carbon transition and sustainable development of China's power system through 2035 using a multi-stage mixed-integer linear programming generation planning model by matching future demand growth trajectories with the least-cost power supply path. The electric power installed capacity, power generation, carbon emission, power-generating cost, and abatement potentials are analyzed through various scenarios. It is found that China's electricity demand will reach 9800–13300 Terawatt-hours in 2035 due to rapid electrification. Every 1 TWh increase in electricity demand requires 0.41–0.53 GW of newly installed capacity. Reducing the proportion of coal-fired power generation and replacing it with renewable energy is inevitable. However, for every 1 GW of coal power retired, 3.7 GW of renewable energy needs to be built. Incorporating electricity demand-side management is crucial to developing an effective decarbonization pathway for China's power sector, along with inclusive policies and technologies to meet China's requirements for dependable, affordable, and sustainable electricity. The results of this paper can provide a reference for policy makers in China as well as other emerging economies.