Potential Risk Situations Research Articles

Analysis of the Development Strategy of Urban Investment Companies Under the Perspective of Financial Generosity

This paper analyzes the current situation of the city investment company in terms of capital, funds and operation from the perspective of financial prosperity, based on the huge financing scale and potential risk situation of the city investment company, and takes A County City Investment Company as an example, and provides a new development mode and direction for the revitalization of the economy of the city investment company. From the perspective of "financial prosperity", it provides a new development mode and direction for revitalizing the economy of city investment company, and puts forward corresponding development strategies from the aspects of asset management, capital management and operation management.

СПЕЦИФИКА ПОСЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬНОСТИ И ЗНАЧИМОСТИ ОПРЕДЕЛЕНИЯ ПРИРОДЫ РИСКА В ПРОЦЕССЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ РАЗНОХАРАКТЕРНЫМИ РИСКОВЫМИ СОБЫТИЯМИ

The article examines the importance of the impact of timely and effective identification of potential risk situations that are possible both in the operation and in the development of project investment and innovation activities of the enterprise. An adapted definition of the risk management process is presented. The features of the specification of the type, the nature of the effect, the descriptive parameters of various risk groups are characterized, and relevant examples are given. The ambiguous nature of the occurrence of a risky event is highlighted. The implementation of a parametric ruler for net risks is justified. Conclusions are formulated on the expediency of using the risk management mechanism in the business sector.

Human Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals and Nitrates Associated with Oral and Dermal Groundwater Exposure: The Poirino Plateau Case Study (NW Italy)

The Poirino Plateau (northwestern Italy) presents high contamination of the shallow aquifer due to intense agricultural practices and industrial activities. Many inhabitants have exploited shallow wells for personal purposes, coming into contact with contaminants. The aims of this study were to characterize groundwater contamination by heavy metals and nitrates, assess the noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks for oral and dermal exposure in different receptor groups (children, adults, workers) and compare the noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risk results with the regulatory limits and, therefore, if the actual regulatory limits are able to detect all potential situations of risk. For this purpose, 18 monitoring wells were collected in July 2022, and chemical–physical parameters and heavy metals were detected. The chemical data confirm a relevant anthropogenic contamination by nitrate and heavy metals. The estimated health risks are much higher in children, for oral exposure rather than dermal exposure for all the substances. The comparison between the results of the human health risk assessment and those in respect of threshold values confirms the existence of a transition condition. This condition, with concentrations below regulatory limits and above the noncarcinogenic or carcinogenic limits, reveals that the regulatory limits are not able to identify all the potential risk situations for the population.

“The Feeling Is What Counts”: Fathers’ Perspectives on Child Risk and Protection within the Ultra-Orthodox Context

Context is known to have substantial influence on issues pertaining to child development. Nevertheless, the field of child well-being, risk, and protection is rooted in Western modernized research and experience, often overlooking contextual dissimilarity. The present study aimed to explore risk and protection for children in a distinct context: the Ultra-Orthodox community, which is an insular and religiously close-knit society. Fifteen in-depth interviews with Ultra-Orthodox fathers dealing with issues of child risk and protection were conducted and thematically analyzed. Analysis of the findings revealed two major areas that fathers viewed as posing potential risk for children: poverty and a lack of paternal presence. In both cases, the fathers emphasized that appropriate mediation of these circumstances can diffuse their potential harm. The discussion outlines the different ways fathers proposed mediating potential risk situations, highlighting distinct religion-related methods. It then considers specific, context-informed ramifications and recommendations and notes limitations and directions for future study.

A Before-and-After Study of a Collision Risk Detecting and Warning System on Local Roads

Local roads have numerous blind spots caused by complex geometry, obstacles, and narrow width. Thus, conventional proactive countermeasures, such as passive traffic signs and convex mirrors, have not always been effective in preventing local road collisions. In this paper, we present a novel proactive two-step approach for traffic safety on local roads, comprised of detection of pedestrian-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-vehicle collision risks and warning systems. First, using video surveillance and radars to eliminate blind spots, the system detects road objects, predicts their trajectories and reachable areas, and identifies a potential risk situation. Second, it provides road users such as vehicles and pedestrians with warnings through LED variable message signs, which allows them to react effectively in risky situations. We have applied the system to two local road sites in South Korea, including a university campus in Seoul City and an apartment complex in Daejeon City. The detecting system has been validated using a confusion matrix. We have assessed the warning effect through a before-and-after study and found that the proposed system contributed to the improvement of traffic safety at the case study site in that traffic conflicts decreased by 55–62%.

Smart solutions for monitoring, control, and safety of swimming pools using a savvy boat

The Internet of Things has evolved as one of the most promising evolutional technologies, and it is gradually being recognized as a quotidian life necessity. It is based on the interconnection of several devices with the goal of simplifying everyday operations through monitoring, remote control, or the creation of smart environments with the goal of reducing the need for human interaction. This paper proposes the application of IoT concept with a savvy boat for monitoring and controlling the quality of swimming pools through a low-cost system based on wireless sensors and actuators which can minimize the number of people needed to maintain a swimming pool. This is very important issue since the improper use of fresh water in daily activities is nowadays a major concern, as well as the need to keep records of water quality in intended to notify the user about potential risk situations. The major goal of this system is to give financial and natural resource savings to the end user, resulting in a more sustainable environment. An Android mobile application was created to allow users to remotely monitor and manage the parameters of a swimming pool in real time, allowing for faster data analysis and the establishment of thresholds for each parameter so that the user is notified when the imposed limitations are exceeded. Some gadgets can be controlled remotely in one of two ways: manually or automatically. Moreover, this savvy boat has a net in front of it to clean the pool on the surface of the water from leaves and wastes and so on which is controlled through a remote control. The material used is a lightweight aluminum with mechanical and electric parts integrated with each other. In fact, this smart boat is qualified to serve as an assistant security guard for swimming pools because it has the characteristics that make it unique and smart.

Risk assessment of maritime container shipping blockchain-integrated systems: An analysis of multi-event scenarios

• A mixed-methods risk analysis is conducted for container shipping’s blockchain-integrated systems. • The qualitative phase established a risk network supported by a comprehensive knowledge base. • The quantitative phase provides risk insights and foresight based on multi-event risk scenarios. • A set of probabilistic indexes for risk network analysis is proposed to analyze complex risk situations. Blockchain applications in maritime logistics services face uncertainties and risks, obstructing a broader and more sustainable adoption. Although the operational risk of blockchain-integrated systems (BISs) is significant, studies in this area are still conceptual and scarce. This research is a mixed-methods risk analysis focusing on (1) modeling the risk situation by a connected network of potential disruptive events in container shipping BISs, and (2) applying a quantitative risk analysis with probabilistic indexes considering the multiplicity of multi-event risk scenarios (MESs). Thirty-two telephone interviews with experts from container terminal operators, shipping companies, and freight forwarders helped establish a risk network with the description of 25 vertices and 54 directed connections. The quantitative analysis of 64 web survey responses provided insights and foresight about different characteristics of each risk and causal connection. The results enable a comprehensive view of the potential failure modes of blockchain applications. This study is the first to explore the potential risk situation in container shipping BISs with inputs from the industry. The applied methodological framework expands the toolkit of risk researchers, analysts, and managers against the fast-paced development of digitalization in maritime logistics and supply chain operations.

Validity Evidence of Brazilian Portuguese Version of the Professional Fulfillment Index.

The questionnaire "Professional Fulfillment Index" (PFI) was validated to assess emotional exhaustion, interpersonal disengagement, and professional achievement among physicians. This study presents the process of cross-cultural adaptation of the PFI to the Brazilian context. Analytical cross-sectional study carried out between July and October 2020. Settings: For conceptual equivalence, a panel of experts was constituted who conducted analyzes on the translation and back-translation processes from English to Brazilian Portuguese. For the operational equivalence, 432 physicians in the field of Occupational Medicine were invited. They answered the PFI in an online platform. Analysis: Both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were performed to seek evidence of the hypothesized structure of PFI item responses. Reliability was assessed using three indicators. The Brazilian version can be considered similar to the original. Most of participants were female (57.6%) and mean age 49.6years-SD 14.0. The mean time since graduation was 18.5years-SD 9.67. Most of them had a full-time job (88.0%) and were trained through post-graduation courses 83.8%. The most frequent job task was to perform worker´s clinical evaluations (84.9%). Exploratory and confirmatory analyzes showed the adequacy of the items in measuring the instrument's construct, with stability for use in other populations and samples. The PFI was developed to evaluate positive and negative aspects of physicians' role and performance. The process described in this article was the first cross-cultural adaptation of the questionnaire. The PFI can help in mapping potential risk situations for negative impacts on physicians' occupational well-being and performance at work, in order to propose interventions that reduce exhaustion and expand professional fulfillment.

Flood impact on the Spanish Mediterranean coast since 1960 based on the prevailing synoptic patterns

In a changing climate and in social context, tools and databases with high spatiotemporal resolution are needed for increasing the knowledge on the relationship between meteorological events and flood impacts; hence, analysis of high-resolution spatiotemporal databases with detailed information on the frequency, intensity, and impact of floods is necessary. However, the methodological nature of flood databases hinders relating specific flood events to the weather events that cause them; hence, methodologies for classifying flood cases according to the synoptic patterns that generate them are also necessary. Knowing which synoptic patterns are likely to generate risk situations allows for a probabilistic approach with high spatial resolution regarding the timing of occurrence, affected area, and expected damage from floods. To achieve these objectives, we use the SMC-Flood Database, a high-resolution spatiotemporal flood database covering the 1960-2015 period for all municipalities along the Spanish Mediterranean coast. To relate floods with the synoptic conditions that generated them, we used a multivariate analysis method on the corrected daily anomalies of the surface pressure fields, 850hPa temperature, and 500hPa geopotential height, all of which were obtained from the 20th Century Reanalysis Project V2. Results show that 12 atmospheric synoptic patterns can statistically explain the 3608 flood cases that occurred in the study area between 1960 and 2015. These flood cases were classified into 847 atmospherically induced flood events. These results reduce the uncertainty during decision making because of the classification of potential risk situations. The Mediterranean Basin is a region where floods have serious socioeconomic impacts; hence, this work helps improving prevention measures and providing information for policymakers, mainly regarding land use planning and early warning systems.

Assessment of groundwater quality and human health risk related to arsenic using index methods and GIS: A case of Şuhut Plain (Afyonkarahisar/Turkey)

In this study the spatial variation of groundwater quality and the potential health risk situation arising were evaluated determining Water Quality Index (WQI and IWQI) for drinking and irrigation water in Şuhut Plain (Afyonkarahisar, Turkey). A total of 27 groundwater samples were collected from wells in May-2019 and physicochemical analysis results were evaluated. According to analysis results of the water samples, the orders of anion and cations are HCO3>SO4-2>Cl->CO3-2 and Ca+2>Mg+2>Na+>K+, respectively. It has been determined that groundwater samples are generally in "excellent" and "good" water class according to the WQI and IWQI assessment. At the same time, groundwater in the study area is suitable for agricultural irrigation water. However, many water samples cannot be used as drinking water in terms of TDS, Mg, NO3 and AsT according to limit values of TSI-266 (2005) and WHO (2011). Health risk assessment indicate that, the risk of developing cancer due to arsenic exposure in healthy adults or children is very low. But, arsenic has a high non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic potentially harmful effect.

POS0760 MONITORING C3 AND C4 VARIATIONS IN SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS PREGNANCIES IS USEFUL TO RECOGNIZE COMPLICATIONS. DATA FROM 2 ITALIAN CENTERS

Background:In SLE pregnancies adverse pregnancy outcomes (APO) are more frequent than in general obstetric population (GOP). In clinical practice, low C3 and C4 levels are associated with active disease and, during pregnancy, complement activation products are shown to be associated with APO.Objectives:To analyse complement variations during SLE pregnancies, focusing on disease flares and APO.Methods:Data on SLE pregnancies prospectively-followed by multidisciplinary team in 2 Italian Centers from 1987 to 2018 were retrospectively analysed. C3 and C4 normal levels were calculated in general obstetric population (GOP) as previously described1, and related to maternal and fetal outcome. Non categorical variables were compared using Mann-Whitney test or Wilcoxon test when appropriate.Results:Two hundred forty-six pregnancies in 172 SLE patients were analysed (mean age at conception 31.3 ±4.9 years; mean disease duration 8.3 ±7.1). Anti-Ro antibodies were positive in 64 patients (37%) and anti-phospholipid antibodies (aPL) were positive in 84 (48%), with single positivity in 54%, double in 24% and triple in 21%; 9 patients (5%) had also a diagnosis of obstetric-antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and 8 (4%) had thrombotic-APS. Seventy-one patients (41%) had history of Lupus Nephritis.Thirty-five flares were recorded in 30 pregnancies (12%). APO occurred in 47 pregnancies (19%) and were: 27 fetal loss (20 early miscarriage <10th week and 7 intrauterine fetal death), 11 severe preterm birth (<34th week) and 15 hypertensive disorder (11 pre-eclampsia and 5 pre-eclampsia+HELLP syndrome).In GOP, C3 progressively increased throughout pregnancy and C4 increase from the 1st trimester to the 2nd trimester, as well as in SLE pregnancies without flares and without APO, from preconception (Fig 1). In the other SLE groups, C3 and C4 showed a different trend: in pregnancies with flares, they did not increase from preconception to the 1st trimester; in fetal losses and severe pre-term births, they remained stable throughout pregnancy; in hypertensive disorders they increased only between preconception and the 1st trimester.C3 and C4 levels were higher in GOP than in all SLE pregnancies groups (including those without flares and without APO) in each trimester. SLE pregnancies without flares showed higher C3 and C4 levels than pregnancies with flares, at preconception and in each trimester. SLE pregnancies without APO had higher C3 and C4 levels than pregnancies with fetal death at 2nd trimester, higher C3 levels than severe pre-term births in each trimester and higher C4 at 3rd trimester (Fig.1).At preconception, pregnancies with flares showed a higher frequency of low C3 and of low C4 than in pregnancies without flares (76% vs 42%, p=0.01; 76% vs 26%, p<0.001, respectively). Using the normality range previously calculated in GOP, SLE pregnancies with flares had higher frequency of low C4 in every trimester as compared with pregnancies without flares (1st: 82% vs 48%, p=0.003; 2nd: 82% vs 64%, p=0.01; 3rd: 64% vs 30%, p=0.002). At multivariate analysis, low C4 at preconception was associated with flare (OR [95% CI]: 10.34 [2.52-42.39]; p=0.001).Figure 1.Variations of C3 and C4 median levels (mg/dL) throughout pregnancy in GOP1 and in SLE pregnancies without and with flare (a) and without and with APO (b).* p <0.05^as compared with SLE groups: p<0.05; § as compared with SLE pregnancies without flare: p<0.05; + as compared with SLE pregnancies without APO: p<0.05Conclusion:In SLE pregnancies, monitoring of C3 and C4 is important: its failure to increase can be useful to recognize potential risk situations which deserve particular monitoring.

Safety and Fidelity in Electroconvulsive Therapy (SAFE ECT): A Novel Virtual Reality-Based Training Program in Electroconvulsive Therapy (Phase 1).

Safety and Fidelity in Electroconvulsive Therapy (SAFE ECT): A Novel Virtual Reality-Based Training Program in Electroconvulsive Therapy (Phase 1).

Выявление ключевых угроз экономической безопасности предприятия оптовой торговли

All organizations are subject to internal and external threats that need to be identified and addressed in a timely manner. Trading organizations have their own characteristics, they are forced to conduct their activities in the context of incomplete and distorted marketing information about consumer preferences of buyers, as well as the inevitable choice between different suppliers and goods for resale. The article provides a list of various threats to economic security and potential risk situations encountered by wholesalers at each stage of their business.

Towards a conceptual model for the use of home healthcare medical devices: The multi-parameter monitor case.

In the last decade there has been an increase in the use of medical devices in the home environment. These devices are commonly the same as those used in hospitals by healthcare professionals. The use of these these devices by lay users outside of a clinical environment may become unsafe. This study presents a methodology that allows decision makers to identify potential risk situations that may arise when lay users operate healthcare medical devices at home. Through a usability study based on the Grounded Theory methodology, we create a conceptual model in which we identified problems and errors related to the use of a multi-parameter monitor in a home environment by a group of lay users. The conceptual model is reified as a graphical representation, which allows stakeholders to identify (i) the weaknesses of the device, (ii) unsafe operation modes, and (iii) the most suitable device for a specific user.

Dynamic Regression Model for Hourly River Level Forecasting Under Risk Situations: an Application to the Ebro River

This work proposes a new statistical modelling approach to forecast the hourly river level at a gauging station, under potential flood risk situations and over a medium-term prediction horizon (around three days). For that aim we introduce a new model, the switching regression model with ARMA errors, which takes into account the serial correlation structure of the hourly level series, and the changing time delay between them. A whole modelling approach is developed, including a two-step estimation, which improves the medium-term prediction performance of the model, and uncertainty measures of the predictions. The proposed model not only provides predictions for longer periods than other statistical models, but also helps to understand the physics of the river, by characterizing the relationship between the river level in a gauging station and its influential factors. This approach is applied to forecast the Ebro River level at Zaragoza (Spain), using as input the series at Tudela. The approach has shown to be useful and the resulting model provides satisfactory hourly predictions, which can be fast and easily updated, together with their confidence intervals. The fitted model outperforms the predictions from other statistical and numerical models, specially in long prediction horizons.

Situaciones de riesgo potencial relacionadas con la aplicación de agroquímicos en los sistemas hortícolas

La producción de hortalizas tiene valor económico y social en Costa Rica, además, es una fuente nutricional básica para la población y la principal actividad económica para muchos productores, sin embargo, la aplicación de agroquímicos representa un riesgo para la salud de los consumidores, por la presencia de residuos de plaguicidas en los productos. Durante el 2013 y 2014 se desarrolló una investigación con el objetivo de definir las Situaciones de Riesgo Potencial (SRP), asociadas con la aplicación de plaguicidas para establecer el grado de cumplimiento de su uso por los productores del Valle Central de Costa Rica. Primero se elaboró una lista de SRP de todos aquellos puntos del proceso de producción de hortalizas relacionados con la aplicación de agroquímicos que representan algún riesgo para la inocuidad del producto. Posteriormente se elaboró un cuestionario para entrevistar a los responsables de 164 sistemas de producción hortícola. Se logró establecer que entre 21,1 y 38,9% de los productores, aprendió a utilizar los plaguicidas en la práctica, sin ninguna instrucción apropiada. Entre un 57 y un 76% de los productores, poseen balanza o equipo de medición calibrado para pesar o medir las dosis de los plaguicidas. Alrededor del 50% de los productores siguen las recomendaciones del vendedor del producto en cuanto a la dosis; sin embargo, entre un 55 y 76% de los productores, utilizan la dosificación por volumen. Respecto al periodo de retiro, el 40% de los productores de tomate y el 45% de los de chile dulce, indican que no respetan dicho periodo. Se concluye que en el manejo de agroquímicos en la producción hortícola en Costa Rica, existe una importante cantidad de riesgos que podrían generar contaminación por residuos de plaguicidas, y así, comprometer la salud del consumidor.

A CLOUD-BASED ARCHITECTURE FOR SMART VIDEO SURVEILLANCE

Abstract. Turning a city into a smart city has attracted considerable attention. A smart city can be seen as a city that uses digital technology not only to improve the quality of people’s life, but also, to have a positive impact in the environment and, at the same time, offer efficient and easy-to-use services. A fundamental aspect to be considered in a smart city is people’s safety and welfare, therefore, having a good security system becomes a necessity, because it allows us to detect and identify potential risk situations, and then take appropriate decisions to help people or even prevent criminal acts. In this paper we present an architecture for automated video surveillance based on the cloud computing schema capable of acquiring a video stream from a set of cameras connected to the network, process that information, detect, label and highlight security-relevant events automatically, store the information and provide situational awareness in order to minimize response time to take the appropriate action.

Análisis bayesiano de factores de riesgo de accidente en trabajos de movimientos de tierras

En este trabajo se analizan características de distintas obras en las que se ejecutaban trabajos de movimiento de tierras y tuvo lugar un accidente. Aplicando redes bayesianas se identifican los factores de mayor potencial predictivo de las situaciones de riesgo analizadas. Posteriormente se realizan estudios de inferencia para analizar la interrelación entre los distintos factores. Con todo esto se demuestra que las redes bayesianas pueden ser herramientas muy potentes en la descripción general de contextos de obra, y de gran capacidad predictiva dentro de la planificación de obras desde la perspectiva seguridad-producción.

Subsurface dynamic evaluation to identify old quarries in urban areas: Lisbon city case study

Abstract The urban expansion over the last century in Lisbon has created a lot of pressure in the suburbs leading to construction taking place in less favourable terrains. These areas were also occupied by an extensive mining industry, for the extraction of massive limestones for building and ornamental stone that had an important role for the reconstruction of Lisbon after the earthquake of 1755. Due to its heavily urbanized landscape in the last century, the terrain morphology is often changed by non-natural processes such as excavations and landfill deposits and nowadays the exact location where these exploitations took place is unknown leading to potential risk situations for buildings, infrastructures and the local population. The aim of this study was to perform a detailed subsurface dynamic analysis to locate the quarries and their landfill material thickness. For that, cartographic and topographic information dating from 1911, 1950, 1970, 2012 were used to create digital terrain models which allowed the terrain morphology changes to be identified and the volume of landfill materials to be obtained. This study enables the Town Hall to create constraints in land use in their Master Plan and other planning instruments to reduce cost increases and the risk of hazards.

Susceptibility mapping of instability related to shallow mining cavities in a built-up environment

Anthropogenic activities and urbanization frequently spread over areas underlain by unstable karst ground or man-made cavities, leading to potential risk situations for buildings, infrastructure and population. The roof of the cavities may rapidly propagate upwards, eventually resulting in progressive ground settlement and/or sudden collapse. These processes are frequently accelerated or triggered by various human activities (e.g., overloading, water recharge, water table decline). In this paper, the susceptibility to instability of artificial cavity networks under an urban area in Apulia Region, Southern Italy, was assessed and evaluated. Here, there is dense network of underground quarries excavated for the extraction of massive calcarenite for building and ornamental stone that are currently affected by severe instability problems. Identifying the zones of the cavities most prone to instability is of great practical importance. Susceptibility models have been developed analyzing the statistical relationships between the cavity sections with evidence of instability and a number of predisposing factors mainly related to the 3D geometry of the voids, roof thickness and the presence of overloads. The models produced by the discriminant analysis and the logistic regression approaches were independently and quantitatively evaluated through the construction of ROC curves. Although the two models are characterized by different input data treatment, as the logistic regression allows using continuous and discrete variables or any combination of both types even if they do not have a normal distribution, the ROC curves highlighted, for both methods, a satisfactory congruence between the model results and the observed data. Consequently, from the model performance analysis, the two models were evaluated comparable in terms of result reliability. The methodology should be considered as a general first-level analysis for near surface underground cavities aimed at identifying critical cave sectors that can be the focus of more detailed analyses, especially those associated with sensitive zone related to the presence of buildings, roads and frequent presence of human activity.