Potential Rebound Effects Research Articles

Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Future agricultural development will be challenged by the impacts of climate change on water, which are expected to be particularly strong in southern European regions. Thus, exploring interrelations between agriculture and water under climate change is essential to frame informed policies that ensure sustainable water management while enhancing food production. Nevertheless, studies that address future agriculture development focus on climate-induced changes in crop productivity and often disregard the water dimension. In this research, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis of agricultural development to drivers of water use in Andalusia in 2050 based on outcomes from the CAPRI-Water model. The results from the analysis show that water cost is the most determinant factor in shaping agricultural land, offsetting the impact of the driver of water availability. In contrast, irrigation water use is driven not only by water cost but also by irrigation efficiency. The magnitude of the sensitivity to these drivers differs significantly across crops. Policies aimed at improving resource use efficiency can contribute to strengthening the resilience and adaptation capacity of future agricultural systems to climate change. To achieve this goal, the policies must consider crop sensitivity to irrigation costs and the potential rebound effect.

Myopia Outcome Study of Atropine in Children (MOSAIC): an investigator-led, double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial protocol

Background: The Myopia Outcome Study of Atropine in Children (MOSAIC) aims to explore the efficacy, safety, acceptability and mechanisms of action of 0.01% unpreserved atropine for myopia control in a European population. Methods: MOSAIC is an investigator-led, double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial (RCT) investigating the efficacy, safety and mechanisms of action of 0.01% atropine for managing progression of myopia. During Phase 1 of the trial, 250 children aged 6-16 years with progressive myopia instil eye drops once nightly in both eyes from randomisation to month 24. No treatment is given during Phase 2 from month 24 to 36 (washout period) for those participants initially randomised to the intervention arm (n=167), during which any potential rebound effects on cessation of treatment will be monitored. All participants initially assigned to the placebo (n=83) crossover to the intervention arm of the study for Phase 2, and from month 24 to 36, instil 0.01% atropine eye drops in both eyes once nightly. Further treatment and monitoring beyond 36 months is planned (Phase 3) and will be designed dependent on the outcomes of Phase 1. Results: The primary outcome measure is cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error progression at 24 months. Secondary outcome measures include axial length change as well as the rebound, safety and acceptability profile of 0.01% atropine. Additional analyses will include the mechanisms of action of 0.01% atropine for myopia control. Conclusions: The generalisability of results from previous clinical trials investigating atropine for myopia control is limited by the predominantly Asian ethnicity of previous study populations. MOSAIC is the first RCT to explore the efficacy, safety and mechanisms of action of unpreserved 0.01% atropine in a predominantly White population. Trial registration: ISRCTN: ISRCTN36732601 (04/10/2017), EudraCTdatabase 2016-003340-37 (03/07/2018).

Myopia Outcome Study of Atropine in Children (MOSAIC): an investigator-led, double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial protocol.

Background: The Myopia Outcome Study of Atropine in Children (MOSAIC) aims to explore the efficacy, safety, acceptability and mechanisms of action of 0.01% unpreserved atropine for myopia control in a European population. Methods: MOSAIC is an investigator-led, double-masked, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial (RCT) investigating the efficacy, safety and mechanisms of action of 0.01% atropine for managing progression of myopia. During Phase 1 of the trial, 250 children aged 6-16 years with progressive myopia instil eye drops once nightly in both eyes from randomisation to month 24. No treatment is given during Phase 2 from month 24 to 36 (washout period) for those participants initially randomised to the intervention arm (n=167), during which any potential rebound effects on cessation of treatment will be monitored. All participants initially assigned to the placebo (n=83) crossover to the intervention arm of the study for Phase 2, and from month 24 to 36, instil 0.01% atropine eye drops in both eyes once nightly. Further treatment and monitoring beyond 36 months is planned (Phase 3) and will be designed dependent on the outcomes of Phase 1. Results: The primary outcome measure is cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error progression at 24 months. Secondary outcome measures include axial length change as well as the rebound, safety and acceptability profile of 0.01% atropine. Additional analyses will include the mechanisms of action of 0.01% atropine for myopia control. Conclusions: The generalisability of results from previous clinical trials investigating atropine for myopia control is limited by the predominantly Asian ethnicity of previous study populations. MOSAIC is the first RCT to explore the efficacy, safety and mechanisms of action of unpreserved 0.01% atropine in a predominantly White population. Trial registration: ISRCTN: ISRCTN36732601 (04/10/2017), EudraCTdatabase 2016-003340-37 (03/07/2018).

Consumers' preferences on the Swiss car market: A revealed preference approach

This paper investigates demand responses to variations in the characteristics of the vehicles. Our investigation is based on number of sales for each model marketed over the period 2006–2015 in Switzerland, and puts particular emphasis on fuel efficiency, curb weight, horsepower, and the potential interactions between these attributes. We find that market shares are significantly higher for more efficient and powerful vehicles, while light cars are preferred to heavy ones. Our results also point to a gradual increase of sensitivity to fuel efficiency over the last decade. However, interaction effects between engine fuel efficiency and power indicate a lower marginal valuation of fuel efficiency in the market segments for relatively powerful cars, hence a lower sensitivity to fuel efficiency among the consumers with the highest potential for polluting emissions. Also, these findings point to potential rebound effects, where consumers give up part of the expected fuel savings by purchasing more powerful vehicles.

Retardation of Myopia Progression by Multifocal Soft Contact Lenses.

Myopia is an important public health problem due to its prevalence and significant public health cost. Elevating levels of myopia increase the risk of vision impairment, and therefore, high myopia has become one of the main causes of untreatable vision loss throughout the world due to its irreversible complications. At present, many options for slowing progression of myopia have already been proposed and evaluated such as progressive addition of executive bifocal spectacle lenses, peripheral defocusing lenses, overnight orthokeratology, pharmacological agents such as atropine eye drops, and multifocal soft contact lenses (MFSCLs). Use of MFSCLs has especially increased in recent years due to the growing demand to slow myopia progression during patient's adolescent growth period to avoid pathological myopia in adulthood. Compared with the other traditional methods of controlling myopia, MFSCLs allow myopic patients to better maintain their clear visual quality and slow myopia progression. In this manuscript, we aim to review the basics of myopia, recent advances in contact lenses to control myopia with emphasis on MFSCLs, define the elements for proper MFSCL fittings (such as pupil size, aberrations, accommodation and centering), discuss the potential rebound effect after discontinuation of contact lenses, and future directions for improvements of contact lenses for the control of myopia.

Does sharing backfire? A decomposition of household and urban economies in CO2 emissions

Both multi-person households and dense urban areas reduce per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by enabling people to share carbon-intensive goods within and between households. In this paper we estimate these household and urban economies in CO2 emissions using detailed household expenditure data for the United States. We then decompose these economies into their primary sources and investigate any potential rebound effects, or diseconomies. The results show that the bulk of household and urban economies come from reductions in emissions from residential energy use and private vehicle transportation. We also find some evidence of rebound effects, with both residential density and multi-person households increasing expenditures on air travel and restaurant meals in particular. These effects are small in comparison to the size of total net economies, suggesting that fears of large rebound effects or backfire effects may be overstated. These results further suggest that policies targeted at the provision of social and technological infrastructure, such as public transportation, mixed-use zoning, and public internet may be most effective in reducing the rural-urban divide in private vehicle emissions.

Impacts of irrigation efficiency improvement on water use, water consumption and response to water price at field level

Increasing irrigation efficiency has been suggested as a solution in water scarce areas but its potential rebound effect (increased ex-post water consumption) is receiving growing attention; paradoxically, although improved irrigation efficiency may reduce water use, it may also increase water consumption. This paper presents a microeconomic analytical approach to assess the effects of water-saving investments and the resulting irrigation efficiency on water use and consumption at field level. Moreover, it analyses the relationship between irrigation efficiency, water demand and water pricing. Findings show that improving efficiency would significantly reduce water use, though the impact on water consumption would be negligible even if there is a radical increase in water cost. Thus, the potential rebound effect would not be related to irrigation efficiency, but rather to other factors such as irrigated area expansion, crop-mix changes, and market forces, which are out of the scope of this study.

Decomposing the South African CO2 emissions within a BRICS countries context: Signalling potential energy rebound effects

This paper employs an LMDI decomposition exercise to investigate the main factors that affect changes in CO2 emissions of South Africa at national level within the BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) from 1990 to 2014. From the results, it is expected to derive some information on the existence of the energy rebound hypothesis for South Africa with ultimate purpose to direct future research into examining the effect in a micro level. The aim of this paper is not to estimate the precise rebound effect but to decompose the determinants of emission changes in the BRICS countries. The concept of energy rebound would play a role if the improvements in energy intensity might lead to emission increases, instead of the opposite as expected. The overall results suggest that the changes in CO2 intensity and energy intensity had a negative impact to the changes in CO2 emissions: in other words, as the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of economic output) decreased for all the countries (possible technological developments), the emissions kept rising. For South Africa specifically, the energy intensity was a negative contributor to CO2 emissions only for the part of the examined period (2008–2014).

MHRA: potential rebound effect after cessation of Gilenya

MHRA: potential rebound effect after cessation of Gilenya

Environmental policy, decision making, and rebound effects in the U.S. trucking sector

New technologies and policies have improved the efficiency of heavy-duty vehicles operating in the United States. These improvements reduce transportation costs ($/mile) for firms and raise questions about firm-level responses to these lower costs. Of particular concern are potential rebound effects on energy consumption that would partially offset the benefits these new technologies and policies aim to achieve. Although recent quantitative research has suggested that rebound effects in the U.S. trucking sector are negligible, very little has been done to “ground-truth” these results through discussions with transportation firms in the trucking sector. Based on interview results with eight trucking firms, this paper discusses the key factors that influence firm-level decision making within energy efficiency policy regimes. In particular, we focus on elements of the rebound effect and the elasticity of travel activity with respect to fuel efficiency. We find that both direct and indirect rebound effects may be small for reasons discussed in the paper. These results help validate recent empirical studies that point to an inelastic relationship between transportation costs and vehicle miles traveled and help expand our understanding of rebound effects in the trucking sector, thereby providing important information for impact analysis and future policy development.

The causal impact of material productivity on macroeconomic competitiveness in the European Union

Interdisciplinary scholars and policy makers have claimed that increasing material productivity not only reduces environmental pressures but also improves the competitiveness of economies. This is particularly relevant in the context of the European Union (EU) since it motivates its resource efficiency and circular economy agenda by referring to this assertion. However, two limitations in the literature cast doubt on the validity of the claim. First, the literature fails to clarify the concept and measurement of macroeconomic competitiveness. Second, it lacks to take the endogeneity of material productivity into account. Addressing both shortcomings, this paper reviews the concept of macroeconomic competitiveness and identifies six conventional macroeconomic indicators to approximate it. Moreover, using panel data of the 28 member states of the EU between 2000 and 2014, the causal impact of material productivity on the six indicators is estimated, instrumenting material productivity with the number of deaths from natural hazards. The results provide evidence for a positive and causal impact of the material productivity rate on the wage rate and, with lower confidence, on the current account rate, while the remaining macroeconomic indicators are not significantly affected. Overall, these results suggest to be cautious with the claim that increasing material productivity improves macroeconomic competitiveness in the EU. Particularly the positive effect on the wage rate calls for considering possibilities to channel gains from increasing material productivity into eco-innovations to reduce the magnitude of potential rebound effects and thus environmental pressures.

The role of the design and operation of individual heating systems for the energy retrofits of residential buildings

The feasibility of individual natural gas fired boiler-based heating systems in the retrofitting of buildings constructed in the 50–60s in Bilbao (northern Spain) is evaluated in this paper. A holistic approach through dynamic simulations using TRNSYS is employed for the purpose. An existing dwelling previously monitored and used to validate the model applied is selected as a case study. 54 different scenarios are evaluated, which arise from the combination of 3 different envelope options, 2 types of heat production units, 3 heat production temperatures and 3 comfort temperature set-points. The cases are evaluated in terms of energy results, economic aspects, and the influence of user behaviour. Regarding the latter, the influence of the potential rebound effect is also evaluated. The results show energy savings nearby 10% when condensing boilers are compared with high efficiency boilers. In relation to hot water production temperature, energy savings between 5 and 10% are found when the temperature is lowered from 60 to 50°C. The greatest impact on energy consumption is related to the occupants’ behaviour: reductions up to 89% are achieved if the indoor temperature set-point is lowered 2°C. This is reinforced with the results related to the rebound effect, which show significant differences on energy consumption values. These evidences demonstrate that the user behaviour is an essential feature to be considered in studies regarding buildings energy performance. As a consequence, the holistic approach herein employed emerges as a key tool to be applied in further works related with the topic.

Compact and Resource Efficient Cities? Synergies and Trade-offs in European Cities

Cities are the main consumers of energy and resources but at the same time are considered as centres for innovation which can provide solutions to unsustainable development. An important concept regarding energy and resource efficiency on the scale of the city and city-region is the compact city. Compact cities and compact urban development are thought to decrease energy and resource demand per capita and increase efficiency. At the same time trade-offs and potential rebound effects of increased resource efficiency question certain achievements of a compact urban structure. This paper reviews aspects of resource and energy efficiency in compact city development in a European context. We conclude that, if the idea of the compact city should have any effect on resource and energy efficiency, accompanying measures have to be implemented, such as e.g. efficient public transport systems to offer alternative travel modes. Also the allocation of efficiency gains due to compact urban development has to be taken into account in order to avoid direct and indirect rebound effects.

Addressing the Carbon‐Crime Blind Spot: A Carbon Footprint Approach

SummaryGovernments estimate the social and economic impacts of crime, but its environmental impact is largely unacknowledged. Our study addresses this by estimating the carbon footprint of crime in England and Wales and identifies the largest sources of emissions. By applying environmentally extended input‐output analysis–derived carbon emission factors to the monetized costs of crime, we estimate that crime committed in 2011 in England and Wales gave rise to over 4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents. Burglary resulted in the largest proportion of the total footprint (30%), because of the carbon associated with replacing stolen/damaged goods. Emissions arising from criminal justice system services also accounted for a large proportion (21% of all offenses; 49% of police recorded offenses). Focus on these offenses and the carbon efficiency of these services may help reduce the overall emissions that result from crime. However, cutting crime does not automatically result in a net reduction in carbon, given that we need to take account of potential rebound effects. As an example, we consider the impact of reducing domestic burglary by 5%. Calculating this is inherently uncertain given that it depends on assumptions concerning how money would be spent in the absence of crime. We find the most likely rebound effect (our medium estimate) is an increase in emissions of 2%. Despite this uncertainty concerning carbon savings, our study goes some way toward informing policy makers of the scale of the environmental consequences of crime and thus enables it to be taken into account in policy appraisals.

Predicting and characterizing indoor temperatures in residential buildings: Results from a monitoring campaign in Northern Portugal

Empirical data for residential indoor temperature and its determinants have important implications for policymakers in terms of the assessment of thermal comfort, health of occupants and the use for supporting energy demand models. With the purpose of advancing this knowledge, the indoor temperatures of 141 households in the Northern Portugal were measured at a half-hourly basis during the winter of 2013–2014. The observed mean winter daily indoor temperature at the occupied period was 14.9°C for the bedrooms and 16.6°C for the living rooms. The results show that indoor temperatures are significantly below the comfort levels generally accepted, which could be an indication of future potential rebound effects. Results also reinforce the idea that ‘cold homes’ during winter season are a reality even in the southern European countries.Models for predicting the daily mean bedroom and living room temperature were developed using an enhanced linear regression with panel-corrected standard errors. The results showed that climatic conditions, and especially building characteristics, affect significantly the bedroom and living room’s indoor temperatures.

Regional Transport Indicators Used in Sweden for Measurement, Reporting and Verification of CO2 Emissions

Established practice is available as a reference for evaluating sustainable transport and CO2 emissions at national, European and global levels, but comparing corresponding systems at the regional and local levels are more challenging. Therefore, this paper analyses the use of indicators, evaluation methods and data availability at local and regional levels for applied policies and measures in transport planning. Sweden is used as a case study. Available data show that total surveys (e.g., vehicle registry data), sample surveys (e.g., interviews) or modelling can be used to develop transport indicators, and that either generated (volume generated in the area) or performed (volume in the area) traffic and transportation is estimated. However, there are limitations with all methods and the design of evaluations needs careful consideration in order to reflect changes in local and regional transport systems and to relate those changes to specific measures and policies. In most cases, survey methods need to be used in order to follow up the most common indicators. All evaluation methods need to be complemented with analyses of a baseline to determine additionality and also potential rebound effects need to be considered, which requires the application of a wider systems perspective.

Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

The considerations and limitations of feedback as a strategy for behaviour change

Design for Sustainable Behaviour (DfSB) is a maturing research area concerned with the application of design strategies to influence consumer behaviour during a products use phase towards more sustainable action. However, current DfSB research has focussed on strategy selection with little research into understanding the real-world impact of the behaviour changing interventions debated. This article presents the results of an extensive literature review of one specific DfSB strategy, feedback – a user agentive performance indicator. These findings exemplify the considerations and limitations of this particular approach to behaviour change, drawing on empirical research conducted by a breadth of authors, including two of the only medium-term case studies in the field of DfSB. Considerations discussed include the frequency, duration and accuracy of feedback; the selection of metrics and the presentation medium and mode; the use of ambience and the location of the installation. Limitations of feedback include the need for additional information and comparisons; the issue with multiple users; technical issues; relegation to background technology and the potential rebound effects. This article provides insights to both improve the effectiveness of future feedback design efforts and also to help facilitate discussion on feedbacks position as a strategy within DfSB.

Design of higher education teaching models and carbon impacts

Purpose– This research aims to examine the main findings of the SusTEACH study of the carbon-based environmental impacts of 30 higher education (HE) courses in 15 UK institutions, based on an analysis of the likely energy consumption and carbon emissions of a range of face-to-face, distance, online and information and communication technology (ICT)-enhanced blended teaching models.Design/methodology/approach– An environmental assessment of 19 campus-based and 11 distance-based HE courses was conducted using questionnaire surveys to gather data from students and lecturers on course-related travel: the purchase and use of ICTs and paper materials, residential energy consumption and campus site operations. Results were converted into average energy and CO2emissions, normalised per student per 100 study hours, and then classified by the primary teaching model used by lecturers.Findings– The main sources of HE course carbon emissions were travel, residential energy consumption and campus site operations. Distance-based HE models (distance, online and ICT-enhanced teaching models) reduced energy consumption by 88 per cent and achieved significant carbon reductions of 83 per cent when compared with campus-based HE models (face-to-face and ICT-enhanced teaching models). The online teaching model achieved the lowest energy consumption and carbon emissions, although there were potential rebound effects associated with increased ICT-related energy consumption and paper used for printing.Practical implications– New pedagogical designs using online and distance-based teaching methods can achieve carbon reductions by reducing student travel via residential and campus accommodation.Originality/value– Few studies have examined the environmental performance of HE teaching models. A new classification of HE traditional, online and blended teaching models is used to examine the role of ICTs and the likely carbon impacts.

A Head-to-Head Comparison of Periprocedural Coagulability Under Anticoagulation with Rivaroxaban Versus Dabigatran in Patients Undergoing Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

Two new oral anticoagulants, rivaroxaban and dabigatran, with no need for anticoagulation monitoring, are available for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to compare their anticoagulant effects and safety when used during the AF ablation periprocedural period. Patients undergoing AF ablation were randomly assigned to receive rivaroxaban 15 mg once daily (N = 30) or dabigatran 110 mg twice daily (N = 30). Rivaroxaban was withheld on the morning of the day before the ablation, and dabigatran was discontinued from the evening of the day before the procedure. Both anticoagulants were then resumed after haemostasis of the access site. D-dimer levels were measured just before the ablation, at the end of the ablation, and at 24 h and 48 h after the procedure. The baseline D-dimer levels were identical in both groups. However, D-dimer levels increased more markedly following the ablation procedure in patients receiving rivaroxaban than in those receiving dabigatran (mean ± standard deviation from 0.62 ± 0.16 to 1.09 ± 0.38 μg/mL vs from 0.59 ± 0.08 to 0.75 ± 0.17 μg/mL; p < 0.0001). The rate of rebleeding from the access site was similar in patients receiving rivaroxaban and those receiving dabigatran (33 vs 27%; p = 0.78). As compared with dabigatran, rivaroxaban may increase the risk of hypercoagulability when used during the periprocedural period of AF ablation, suggesting a potential rebound effect of rivaroxaban or a mismatch between its half-life and dose regimen.