Abstract
Future agricultural development will be challenged by the impacts of climate change on water, which are expected to be particularly strong in southern European regions. Thus, exploring interrelations between agriculture and water under climate change is essential to frame informed policies that ensure sustainable water management while enhancing food production. Nevertheless, studies that address future agriculture development focus on climate-induced changes in crop productivity and often disregard the water dimension. In this research, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis of agricultural development to drivers of water use in Andalusia in 2050 based on outcomes from the CAPRI-Water model. The results from the analysis show that water cost is the most determinant factor in shaping agricultural land, offsetting the impact of the driver of water availability. In contrast, irrigation water use is driven not only by water cost but also by irrigation efficiency. The magnitude of the sensitivity to these drivers differs significantly across crops. Policies aimed at improving resource use efficiency can contribute to strengthening the resilience and adaptation capacity of future agricultural systems to climate change. To achieve this goal, the policies must consider crop sensitivity to irrigation costs and the potential rebound effect.
Highlights
Agricultural development is strongly influenced by environmental and socioeconomic drivers [1,2].Crop production is very sensitive to climatic conditions and is extremely exposed to climate change that impacts both crop productivity and water availability [3,4]
The results from CAPRI-Water show that the impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture as well as future changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs will significantly affect the agricultural sector in Andalusia
Based on a reference scenario that accounts for climate-induced changes in crop productivity under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0, we have analysed the sensitivity of irrigated land, irrigation water use, and agricultural income to shifts in three drivers: water availability for irrigation, irrigation efficiency, and water cost
Summary
Agricultural development is strongly influenced by environmental and socioeconomic drivers [1,2].Crop production is very sensitive to climatic conditions and is extremely exposed to climate change that impacts both crop productivity and water availability [3,4]. 80% in southern regions [5] Understanding how these drivers will influence agriculture over the coming years is essential to frame informed policies that ensure sustainable water management while enhancing food production. Agricultural policy impact assessments are often supported by agroeconomic models that attempt to represent the sector performance in a simplified manner This implies including a number of assumptions that lead to uncertainties in model results in addition to the inherent uncertainties linked to an unknown future [6]. Studies that explored economic impacts of water use in agriculture were primarily conducted at the basin, farm, and plot levels, providing relevant insights into agriculture and water interrelations [10,11] These studies generally neglected market feedback, which is an important driver in agricultural production [12]
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