Potential Influence Of Climate Change Research Articles

"Two zones and three centers" distribution and suitable areas shift of an evergreen oak in subtropical China under climate scenarios.

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.

Expression of octopamine/tyramine receptors and immune regulation in Litopenaeus vannamei under acute and chronic thermal stress

This study investigated the impact of hyperthermal (34 °C) and hypothermal (14 °C) stress on the expression of the octopamine/tyramine receptor (LvOA/TA-R) and immune parameters in Litopenaeus vannamei, which is a species critical to the aquaculture industry. Given the sensitivity of aquatic organisms to climate change, understanding the physiological and immune responses of L. vannamei to temperature variations is essential for developing strategies to mitigate adverse effects. This research focuses on the immune response and expression changes of LvOA/TA-R under acute (0.5, 1, and 2 h) and chronic (24, 72, and 168 h) thermal stress conditions. Our findings reveal that thermal stress induces changes in LvOA/TA-R expression and impacts immune responses. Immune parameters such as total haemocyte count, differential haemocyte count, phenoloxidase activity, respiratory bursts, lysozyme activity, clearance efficiency, and phagocytosis exhibited a general trend of significant decline under the stress conditions. LvOA/TA-R had a higher expression in haemocyte under hyperthermal stress. The study elucidated that thermal stress modifies the expression of the LvOA/TA-R and diminishes immune functionality in L. vannamei, underscoring the potential influence of climate change on industry.

Prevalence and concentration of mycotoxins in bovine feed and feed components: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by fungi and identified as contaminants in animal feed. They have potentially harmful effects, including carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, and repro-toxicity in animals and humans. As a result of climate change, there is the potential for a change in the prevalence and concentration of mycotoxins in animal feed components. This necessitates an assessment of the present and emerging threats to the food supply chain from mycotoxins. This systematic review and meta-analysis study synthesised studies on mycotoxin contamination and prevalence in cattle feed components. The studies were collected from scientific databases Web of Knowledge, Scopus, and Embase between 2011 and 2022. The meta-analysis synthesised 97 studies on the prevalence and the concentration of aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, fumonisin and T-2/HT-2 toxins in feed components. Aflatoxin was highly prevalent (59 %), with a concentration of 2.58–3.92 μg kg−1 in feed components. Ochratoxin A had a global prevalence of 31 % with a concentration of 5.56–12.41 μg kg−1. Deoxynivalenol had a global concentration of 233.17–327.73 μg kg−1 and a prevalence of 74 %. Zearalenone had a prevalence of 70 % and a concentration of 42.47–66.19 μg kg−1. The concentration and prevalence of fumonisins was 232.19–393.07 μg kg−1 and 65 %, respectively. The prevalence and concentration of T-2/HT-2 toxins were 45 % and 23.54–35.12 μg kg−1, respectively. The synthesised concentration of the mycotoxins in the overall feed components was lower than the regulated and guidance values set by the European Union. However, in a few cases, the 95th percentile exceeded these concentration values due to high levels of uncertainty attributed to lower sample size, and thus, need to be considered while conducting risk assessments. The study highlights climates and regions likely to be conducive to the emergence of mycotoxin risk, especially considering the potential influences of climate change.

A multiyear time series (2004-2012) of bacterial and archaeal community dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Climate change is profoundly impacting the Arctic, leading to a loss of multiyear sea ice and a warmer, fresher upper Arctic Ocean. The response of microbial communities to these climate-mediated changes is largely unknown. Here, we document the interannual variation in bacterial and archaeal communities across a 9-year time series of the Canada Basin that includes two historic sea ice minima (2007 and 2012). We report an overall loss of bacterial and archaeal community richness and significant shifts in community composition. The magnitude and period of most rapid change differed between the stratified water layers. The most pronounced changes in the upper water layers (surface mixed layer and upper Arctic water) occurred earlier in the time series, while changes in the lower layer (Pacific-origin water) occurred later. Shifts in taxonomic composition across time were subtle, but a decrease in Bacteroidota taxa and increase in Thaumarchaeota and Euryarchaeota taxa were the clearest signatures of change. This time series provides a rare glimpse into the potential influence of climate change on Arctic microbial communities; extension to the present day should contribute to deeper insights into the trajectory of Arctic marine ecosystems in response to warming and freshening.

Dissecting climate change risk and financial market instability: Implications for ecological risk management.

This research investigates the impact of climate challenges on financial markets by introducing an innovative approach to measure climate risk, specifically the aggregate climate change concern (ACCC) index. The study aims to assess and quantify the potential influence of climate change and risk-related factors on the performance and dynamics of financial markets. In this paper, concern is defined as the attention paid to the risk of climate change and the associated negative consequences. The findings demonstrate that the aggregate index exhibits robust predictability of market risk premiums, both within the sample and out-of-sample. By comparison, the index contains additional information beyond 14 economic predictors and 12 risk/uncertainty indexes in forecasting stock market return. In addition, the index proves valuable for mean-variance investors in asset allocation, leading to significant economic gains. The study identifies the index's ability to capture the reversal of temporary price crashes caused by overreactions to climate change risk. Furthermore, it exhibits stronger return forecasting capability for green stocks, non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) stocks, and stocks in regions with low air pollution. Particularly during periods of low air pollution and relaxed regulation, the index displays an enhanced ability to forecast returns. The study's findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and financial institutions as they address 21st-century environmental challenges. Moreover, these findings can inform the design of adaptive measures and interventions aimed at mitigating ecological risks and promoting sustainable economicgrowth.

Effects of Multiple Environmental Stressors on Zoobenthos Communities in Shallow Lakes: Evidence from a Mesocosm Experiment

Multiple stressors, including climate change, eutrophication, and pesticide contamination, are significant drivers of the decline in lake zoobenthos. Zoobenthos play a crucial role in aquatic ecosystems, impacting energy dynamics, nutrient cycling, and sediment degradation. However, these stressors have led to a decrease in the abundance and diversity of zoobenthos, resulting in notable changes in species composition and structure. Eutrophication typically increases zoobenthos abundance while reducing taxonomic diversity. Climate change, such as warming and heatwaves, also affects the zoobenthos community structure, with different species exhibiting varying levels of adaptability to temperature changes. Additionally, pesticides like imidacloprid have negative effects on the survival and growth of zoobenthos. However, the interactions between imidacloprid and other stressors remain understudied. Here, we used 48 mesocosms (2500 L) to simulate shallow lakes. We combined nutrient loading, sustained warming, and the imidacloprid pesticide to test how these stressors interactively influence the survival and community of zoobenthos. The experimental results demonstrate that elevated temperatures have a significant impact on aquatic benthic organisms under different treatment conditions. The increase in temperature led to a notable rise in species richness and α-diversity, primarily attributed to the stimulation of metabolic activities in zoobenthos, promoting their growth and reproduction. This finding underscores the potential influence of climate change on aquatic benthic ecosystems, particularly in terms of its promoting effect on α-diversity. However, it is essential to note that elevated temperatures also reduced β-diversity among different sites, implying a potential trend toward homogenization in zoobenthos communities under warmer conditions. Moreover, this study revealed the interactive effects of multiple stressors on the diversity of aquatic benthic communities. Specifically, the pesticide imidacloprid’s impact on zoobenthos is not isolated but demonstrates complex effects within various treatment interactions. In the presence of both temperature elevation and the addition of imidacloprid, the presence of imidacloprid appears to counteract the adverse effects of temperature elevation, resulting in increased species diversity. However, when imidacloprid coincides with nutrient input, it significantly affects α-diversity negatively. These findings highlight the complexity of zoobenthos responses to multiple stressors and how these factors influence both α-diversity and β-diversity. They provide valuable insights for further research on the conservation and management of ecosystems.

Polar Amplification in the Earth’s Three Poles Based on MODIS Land Surface Temperatures

Polar amplification appears in response to greenhouse gas forcing, which has become a focus of climate change research. However, polar amplification has not been systematically investigated over the Earth’s three poles (the Arctic, Antarctica, and the Third Pole). An index of polar amplification is employed, and the annual and seasonal variations of land surface temperature over the Earth’s three poles are examined using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) observations for the period 2001–2018. As expected, the warming of the Arctic is most conspicuous, followed by the Third Pole, and is weakest in Antarctica. Compared to the temperature changes for the global land region, positive polar amplification appears in the Arctic and the Third Pole on an annual scale, whereas Antarctic amplification disappears, with a negative amplification index of −0.72. The polar amplification for the Earth’s three poles shows seasonal differences. Strong Arctic amplification appears in boreal spring and winter, with a surface warming rate of more than 3.40 times the global mean for land regions. In contrast, the amplification of the Third Pole is most conspicuous in boreal summer. The two poles located in the Northern Hemisphere have the weakest amplification in boreal autumn. Differently from the positive amplification for the Arctic and the Third Pole in all seasons, the faster variations in Antarctic temperature compared to the globe only appear in austral autumn and winter, and the amplification signal is negative in these seasons, with an amplification index of −1.68 and −2.73, respectively. In the austral winter, the strong negative amplification concentrates on West Antarctica and the coast of East Antarctica, with an absolute value of amplification index higher than 5 in general. Generally, the polar amplification is strongest in the Arctic except from June to August, and Antarctic amplification is the weakest among the Earth’s three poles. The Earth’s three poles are experiencing drastic changes, and the potential influence of climate change should receive attention.

Predicting current and future potential distributions of the greater bandicoot rat (Bandicota indica) under climate change conditions.

Rodent infestation is a global problem. Rodents cause huge harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry around the world and spread various zoonoses. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable habitats of Bandicota indica and predicted the impact of future climate change on its distribution under different socio-economic pathway scenarios of CMIP6 using a parameter-optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value (0.958 ± 0.006) after ten repetitions proved the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Model results show that the annual mean temperature (≥ 15.93 °C), isothermality (28.52-80.49%), annual precipitation (780.13-3863.13 mm), precipitation of the warmest quarter (≥ 204.37 mm), and nighttime light (≥ 3.38) were important limiting environmental variables for the distribution of B. indica. Under current climate conditions, the projected potential suitable habitats for B. indica were mainly in India, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, which cover a total area of 301.70 × 104 km2 . The potentially suitable areas of B. indica in the world will expand under different future climate change scenarios by 1.61-17.65%. These results validate the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of B. indica and aid in understanding the linkages between B. indica niches and the relevant environment, thereby identifying urgent management areas where interventions may be necessary to develop feasible early warning and prevention strategies to protect against this rodent's spread. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Potential Influence of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of Vector-Borne Diseases among Animal Populations

Potential Influence of Climate Change on the Occurrence and Distribution of Vector-Borne Diseases among Animal Populations

A review on the progress and research directions of ocean engineering

This paper reviews research in ocean engineering over the last 50+ years with the aim to (I) understand the technological challenges and evolution in the field, (II) investigate whether ocean engineering studies meet present global demands, (III) explore new scientific/engineering tools that may suggest pragmatic solutions to problems, and (IV) identify research and management gaps, and the way forward. Six major research divisions are identified, namely (I) Ocean Hydrodynamics, (II) Risk Assessment and Safety, (III) Ocean Climate and Geophysics: Data and Models, (IV) Control and Automation in the Ocean, (V) Structural Engineering and Manufacturing for the Ocean, and (VI) Ocean Renewable Energy. As much as practically possible research sub-divisions of the field are also identified. It is highlighted that research topics dealing with ocean renewable energy, control and path tracking of ships, as well as computational modelling of wave-induced motions are growing. Updating and forecasting energy resources, developing computational methods for wave generation, and introducing novel methods for the optimised control of energy converters are highlighted as the potential research opportunities. Ongoing studies follow the global needs for environmentally friendly renewable energies, though engineering-based studies often tend to overlook the longer-term potential influence of climate change. Development and exploitation of computational engineering methods with focus on continuum mechanics problems remain relevant. Notwithstanding this, machine learning methods are attracting the attention of researchers. Analysis of COVID-19 transmission onboard is rarely conducted, and 3D printing-based studies still need more attention from researchers.

Inferring probable distributional gaps and climate change impacts on the medically important viper Echis leucogaster in the western Sahara-Sahel: An ecological niche modeling approach

Abstract. Bouam I, Khelfaoui F, Saoudi M. 2022. Inferring probable distributional gaps and climate change impacts on the medically important viper Echis leucogaster in the western Sahara-Sahel: An ecological niche modeling approach. Biodiversitas 23: 5175-5183. Knowledge of biodiversity distribution and how climate change may affect species across the Sahara-Sahel is scarce despite it harboring both high biodiversity and a high rate of endemism. As ectotherms, snakes are particularly vulnerable to climate change and susceptible to range shifts and demographic changes driven by climate change. Ecological niche models are a common method for predicting the probability of the occurrence of species and future range shifts induced by climate change. This study examines the probable gaps in the distribution of the white-bellied saw-scaled viper, Echis leucogaster, and the potential influence of climate change on its future geographic range in the western Sahara-Sahel. The currently predicted environmentally suitable areas fitted well with the known geographical range of the species showed relative congruence with the Sahara-Sahel ecoregion delineations and identified areas without known occurrences. In the future, the environmental conditions for the occurrence of E. leucogaster are predicted to increase, as the environmentally suitable areas will potentially experience an increase in their proportion. Future projections also showed that the potentially suitable areas might undergo moderate southward shifts during the late twenty-first century. The results of the present study significantly expand our knowledge on the potential distribution of E. leucogaster and provide valuable insights to guide future sampling efforts and conservation planning for the species.

Richness and distribution of endangered orchid species under different climate scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Predicting the potential influences of climate change on the richness and distribution is essential for the protection of endangered species. Most orchid species are narrowly distributed in specific habitats and are very vulnerable to habitat disturbance, especially for endangered orchid species on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, we simulated the potential influences of climate change on the richness and distribution of 17 endangered orchid species on the QTP using the MaxEnt model based on the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSPs) in the 2050s and 2070s. The results showed that aspect, annual precipitation, elevation, mean temperature of driest quarter, topsoil pH (H2O), and topsoil sand fraction had a large influence on the potential distribution of endangered orchid species on the QTP. The area of potential distribution for orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 under the current climate scenario was 14,462 km2 (accounting for 0.56% of QTP), and it was mostly distributed in the southeastern part of QTP. The area of orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 under SSP370 in the 2070s was the smallest (9,370 km2: only accounting for 0.36% of QTP). The largest area of potential distribution for orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 was 45,394 km2 (accounting for 1.77% of QTP) under SSP585 in the 2070s. The total potential distribution area of 17 orchid species richness all increased from the 2050s to the 2070s under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. The orchid species richness basically declined with the increasing elevation under current and future climate scenarios. The mean elevation of potential distribution for orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 under different climate scenarios was between 3,267 and 3,463 m. The mean elevation of potential distribution for orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 decreased from SSP126 (3,457 m) to SSP585 (3,267 m) in the 2070s. Based on these findings, future conservation plans should be concentrated on the selection of protected areas in the southeastern part of QTP to protect the endangered orchid species.

Climate change-induced variations in future extreme precipitation intensity-duration-frequency in flood-prone city of Adama, central Ethiopia.

The influences of climate change on the features of extreme rainfall events have become unprecedented that needs improved understanding at all levels for planning effective management strategies of the potential risks. This study aims to assess the potential influences of climate change on extreme rainfall characteristics in flood-vulnerable city of Adama. Daily precipitation records of 1967-2016 and projection of global circulation models (GCMs): CanESM2 and HadCM3 for 2021-2070 were disaggregated into shorter time resolutions using the Hyetos model. Gumbel type I probability distribution and power-regression model ([Formula: see text] were used for deducing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and for describing their functions, respectively. The extreme rainfall intensity of the historical and future periods for a range of storm durations and return periods were compared and contrasted. A close agreement is obtained between the observed and the modeled rainfall intensity with high values of coefficient of determination (> 0.996) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (> 0.850). Besides, statistically significant (p < 0.05) direct linear relationship is found between the return periods and the coefficient parameter of the IDF models. Moreover, the intensity of extreme precipitation over 2021-2070 in Adama city would increase up to 49.5%, depending on storm duration and return period considered. This could have consequences of the way the city's drainage infrastructures are designed, operated, and sustained. Hence, flood-prone areas should be recognized in order to formulate effective strategies for mitigation and adaption of potential impacts. The standards for designing future drainage infrastructures should also be updated aiming to reflect the effects of climatic change.

Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

The interaction between climate change and biological invasions is a global conservation challenge with major consequences for invasive species management. However, our understanding of this interaction has substantial knowledge gaps; this is particularly relevant for invasive snakes on islands because they can be a serious threat to island ecosystems. Here we evaluated the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of invasive snakes on islands, using the invasion of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) in Gran Canaria. We analysed the potential distribution of L. californiae under current and future climatic conditions in the Canary Islands, with the underlying hypothesis that the archipelago might be suitable for the species under these climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the Canary Islands are currently highly suitable for the invasive snake, with increased suitability under the climate change scenarios tested here. This study supports the idea that invasive reptiles represent a substantial threat to near-tropical regions, and builds on previous studies suggesting that the menace of invasive reptiles may persist or even be exacerbated by climate change. We suggest future research should continue to fill the knowledge gap regarding invasive reptiles, in particular snakes, to clarify their potential future impacts on global biodiversity.

Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

Estimating climate change-related impacts on outdoor air pollution infiltration

BackgroundRising temperatures due to climate change are expected to impact human adaptive response, including changes to home cooling and ventilation patterns. These changes may affect air pollution exposures via alteration in residential air exchange rates, affecting indoor infiltration of outdoor particles. We conducted a field study examining associations between particle infiltration and temperature to inform future studies of air pollution health effects. MethodsWe measured indoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Atlanta in 60 homes (810 sampling-days). Indoor-outdoor sulfur ratios were used to estimate particle infiltration, using central site outdoor sulfur concentrations. Linear and mixed-effects models were used to examine particle infiltration ratio-temperature relationships, based on which we incorporated projected meteorological values (Representative Concentration Pathways intermediate scenario RCP 4.5) to estimate particle infiltration ratios in 20-year future (2046–2065) and past (1981–2000) scenarios. ResultsThe mean particle infiltration ratio in Atlanta was 0.70 ± 0.30, with a 0.21 lower ratio in summer compared to transition seasons (spring, fall). Particle infiltration ratios were 0.19 lower in houses using heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems compared to those not using HVAC. We observed significant associations between particle infiltration ratios and both linear and quadratic models of ambient temperature for homes using natural ventilation and those using HVAC. Future temperature was projected to increase by 2.1 °C in Atlanta, which corresponds to an increase of 0.023 (3.9%) in particle infiltration ratios during cooler months and a decrease of 0.037 (6.2%) during warmer months. DiscussionWe estimated notable changes in particle infiltration ratio in Atlanta for different 20-year periods, with differential seasonal patterns. Moreover, when stratified by HVAC usage, increases in future ambient temperature due to climate change were projected to enhance seasonal differences in PM2.5 infiltration in Atlanta. These analyses can help minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiologic studies of PM2.5, and provide a better understanding of the potential influence of climate change on PM2.5 health effects.

Mortality risk of a future heat event across a subtropical city: implications for community planning and health policy

In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting model to project 2050 urban and rural temperature. We applied a time-stratified analysis to compare it with mortality between 2001 and 2014 and between 2011 and 2014, to estimate the elevated risk of a 2050 heat event. We included change in daytime versus nighttime and urban versus rural temperatures as factors to project mortality, to evaluate the potential influence of climate change on mortality risk. Increases of 2.9 °C and 2.6 °C in maximum and minimum air temperature are projected in a 2050 heat event, with a day and a night that will have respective temperatures 9.8 °C and 4.9 °C higher than 2001–2014. Significantly higher mortality risk is forecasted in 2050 compared to 2001–2014 (IRR 1.721 [1.650, 1.796]) and 2011–2014 (IRR 1.622 [1.547, 1.701]) without consideration of temperature change. After consideration of changing temperature, change in maximum temperature in rural areas will induce the highest mortality risk during 2050, possibly due to rapid urbanization across the city, and with the second highest mortality risk induced by the change in minimum temperature in urbanized areas, possibly because local people in the city have been adapted to the maximum level of urban thermal stress during a summer day. Improvements to heat warning systems and sustainable planning protocols are urgently needed for climate change mitigation.

Influence of climate variations on primary production indicators and on the resilience of forest ecosystems in a future scenario of climate change: Application to sweet chestnut agroforestry systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract Sweet chestnut agroforestry systems make valuable contributions to the landscape and environment, fulfilling fundamental functions and processes. Net primary production (NPP) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) are commonly used as ecological indicators to evaluate the responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change. Nonetheless, although climate-induced primary production changes have been widely documented at the global scale, few studies have addressed this issue at local scale in relation to sweet chestnut forests. Data from 65 climate maps and MODIS remote-sensed data captured in the Iberian Peninsula between 2000 and 2015 were analysed in this study. Different statistical methods (Linear Regression and Classification and Regression Trees) were used to analyse the potential influence of climate change on sweet chestnut primary production, thus enabling assessment of ecosystem and ecosystem service (ES) supply and of the resilience of these systems in a future scenario of climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The findings for the whole of the Iberian Peninsula show that NPP and CUE are negatively correlated with temperature variables and positively correlated with latitude. High NPP values mainly corresponded to northern Spain, which is characterised by cold, humid conditions. The CUE values were highest in northern Portugal, mainly in managed, monospecific forest. Overall, the fitted models showed a temporary response in which the monthly variables were particularly important and water availability was more important than temperature. The findings suggest that precipitation is not a limiting factor in Atlantic areas, but that water availability tends to be a limiting factor in Mediterranean areas. However, mean annual temperature (MAT) is also an important driver of sweet chestnut production and may be a limiting factor in a future scenario of climate change. Regions of Provenance (RoP) proved useful for explaining NPP and CUE and classifying the sweet chestnut agroforestry systems. Finally, the study findings also revealed that Iberian sweet chestnut ecosystems and the associated ES supplies are at risk of being seriously affected or even disappearing as a result of climate change, especially in some Mediterranean areas of southern and central Spain.

Potential Influence of Climate Change on Grain Self‐Sufficiency at the Country Level Considering Adaptation Measures

AbstractIn recent decades, grain self‐sufficiency has been a key security issue for certain countries, such as Russia, China, India, and France. Climate change may affect agricultural production and possibly influence the grain self‐sufficiency of some countries, threatening their food security. This article provides an updated integrated assessment of the impact of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency at the country level. The study links climatic variables projected by global climate models to economic variables simulated by a global multiregion multisector economic model. Although climate change may considerably reduce land productivity, our simulation results show that climate change in the long term modestly impacts regional grain self‐sufficiency, as the direct effects on yield are largely canceled out by changes in grain production via adaptation measures taken by producers in response to market signals. Behavioral changes of consumers also contribute modestly to cancel out the adverse impact on land productivity. In the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the adverse impact of climate change on land productivity in 2100 may reach to 25% of the current level, but declines to 5% when changes in production and consumption are considered, thus indicating the role of long‐term adaptation by economic agents.

Climate change does not affect the seafood quality of a commonly targeted fish.

Climate change can affect marine and estuarine fish via alterations to their distributions, abundances, sizes, physiology and ecological interactions, threatening the provision of ecosystem goods and services. While we have an emerging understanding of such ecological impacts to fish, we know little about the potential influence of climate change on the provision of nutritional seafood to sustain human populations. In particular, the quantity, quality and/or taste of seafood may be altered by future environmental changes with implications for the economic viability of fisheries. In an orthogonal mesocosm experiment, we tested the influence of near-future ocean warming and acidification on the growth, health and seafood quality of a recreationally and commercially important fish, yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis). The growth of yellowfin bream significantly increased under near-future temperature conditions (but not acidification), with little change in health (blood glucose and haematocrit) or tissue biochemistry and nutritional properties (fatty acids, lipids, macro- and micronutrients, moisture, ash and total N). Yellowfin bream appear to be highly resilient to predicted near-future ocean climate change, which might be facilitated by their wide spatio-temporal distribution across habitats and broad diet. Moreover, an increase in growth, but little change in tissue quality, suggests that near-future ocean conditions will benefit fisheries and fishers that target yellowfin bream. The data reiterate the inherent resilience of yellowfin bream as an evolutionary consequence of their euryhaline status in often environmentally challenging habitats and imply their sustainable and viable fisheries into the future. We contend that widely distributed species that span large geographic areas and habitats can be "climate winners" by being resilient to the negative direct impacts of near-future oceanic and estuarine climate change.