Potential Impact Of Global Warming Research Articles

Heat stress effects on sexual reproductive processes of a threatened halophyte

Sexual reproduction, a critical life history process in plants, can be altered by heat stress derived from global warming. Sexual reproduction increases genetic diversity, and the ability of plants to respond to environmental changes and dispersal. The capacity for these responses is especially relevant as plants are exposed to rising environmental stress levels imposed by climate change. We investigated the influence of environmental factors that impose physiological stress that may affect the fruit set of Spartina maritima, the sole native African and European cordgrass species. To achieve our objective, we acquired locally recorded air temperatures and tidal amplitude projections. Within population sites, we measured sedimentary conditions (pH, redox potential and electrical conductivity), and the phenological stage of S. maritima inflorescences, spikelets with non-exserted stamens and caryopses produced throughout its 10-week flowering period. Fruit set decreased as flowering period advanced, and as air temperatures and the proportion of spikelets with non-exserted stamens increased. Fruit set decreased with increased sediment anoxia. The proportion of reabsorbed caryopses increased with high air temperatures during the female phase of the inflorescence, and with higher tidal amplitudes during the male phase. These environmental stress factors could terminate caryopsis development that had commenced. Our results point to a severe potential impact of global warming on the reproductive process of native S. maritima. Mitigation of global warming will be essential to maintain population persistence and support conservation and recovery of this halophyte that provides important ecosystem services in salt marshes.

South African log resource availability and potential environmental impact of timber construction

We investigated the South African log resource availability and the potential global warming impact of an increasing wood-based residential building market. We have shown that, with the use of wood resources currently exported as chips, as well as planting trees in areas that have been earmarked for afforestation, a sustainable residential building market, where all constructions are wood-based, is possible. However, in the short term, imports of wooden building components might be necessary if rapid growth in woodbased building occurs. Basic modelling analyses show that if the market share of wood-based buildings increases to 20% of new constructions, the embodied energy and global warming potential of the residential building sector could decrease by 4.9%. If all new constructions were wood based, the total embodied energy and global warming potential of the residential building sector could decrease by up to 30%.
 Significance:
 
 A novel finding of this paper is that sufficient local log resource options exist to realise a sustainable all-wood residential construction market in South Africa.
 The likely implications in terms of embodied energy and potential global warming impact of using wood-based materials for residential buildings compared to conventional brick and mortar or reinforced concrete buildings were also analysed and found to be favourable.

Embryonic Temperature Programs Phenotype in Reptiles.

Reptiles are critically affected by temperature throughout their lifespan, but especially so during early development. Temperature-induced changes in phenotype are a specific example of a broader phenomenon called phenotypic plasticity in which a single individual is able to develop different phenotypes when exposed to different environments. With climate change occurring at an unprecedented rate, it is important to study temperature effects on reptiles. For example, the potential impact of global warming is especially pronounced in species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) because temperature has a direct effect on a key phenotypic (sex) and demographic (population sex ratios) trait. Reptiles with TSD also serve as models for studying temperature effects on the development of other traits that display continuous variation. Temperature directly influences metabolic and developmental rate of embryos and can have permanent effects on phenotype that last beyond the embryonic period. For instance, incubation temperature programs post-hatching hormone production and growth physiology, which can profoundly influence fitness. Here, we review current knowledge of temperature effects on phenotypic and developmental plasticity in reptiles. First, we examine the direct effect of temperature on biophysical processes, the concept of thermal performance curves, and the process of thermal acclimation. After discussing these reversible temperature effects, we focus the bulk of the review on developmental programming of phenotype by temperature during embryogenesis (i.e., permanent developmental effects). We focus on oviparous species because eggs are especially susceptible to changes in ambient temperature. We then discuss recent work probing the role of epigenetic mechanisms in mediating temperature effects on phenotype. Based on phenotypic effects of temperature, we return to the potential impact of global warming on reptiles. Finally, we highlight key areas for future research, including the identification of temperature sensors and assessment of genetic variation for thermosensitivity.

Global Warming Impacts Study of Tofu Products in Mampang Prapatan Small and Medium Enterprises with Life Cycle Assessment Methods

Firstly global warming issue caused by greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) which comes from human activities. Along with increasing of daily need, that humans of activities food produce is also increase, include of tofu. Tofu is a traditional Indonesian specialty made from soybeans and used as a side dish. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of global warming from tofu products on Mampang Prapatan's Small Tofu and Medium Enterprises. The method used in this study is the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method with the help of Simapro 8.4 software with a 1 kg tofu functional unit. The data collected in this study is the average data of tofu production for 3 months, namely January - March 2018. The LCA data in this study include the process of soybean cultivation, transportation processes for shipping soybeans, water, fuel wood, and electricity use. The limitations of this study are from cradle (soybean cultivation) to gate (tofu products).The results showed that UKM Mampang Prapatan has the potential impact of global warming with a value of 3.84 kg CO2-eq, while the value of global warming in the production process knows the scenario of wastewater treatment and the use of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as fuel for boiling pulp 4.49 kg CO2-eq soybeans. Based on the results of this study, greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions are issued; the intervention that can be done is to optimize the use of raw materials for production to reduce the impact of CO2-eq kg global warming.

Epidemiology of exertional heat illnesses in organised sports: a systematic review

Introduction: Exertional Heat Illness (EHI) in sports has gained special attention in recent years due to concern of the potential impact of global warming on increased incidence of EHI and fatal heat strokes. This systematic review summarises reports of the incidence of EHI in organised-sports, to examine any trends in the EHI incidence over time, and to describe EHI incidence based on sporting activity, geographic location, and type of EHI.

Adaptive introgression as a driver of local adaptation to climate in European white oaks.

Latitudinal and elevational gradients provide valuable experimental settings for studies of the potential impact of global warming on forest tree species. The availability of long-term phenological surveys in common garden experiments for traits associated with climate, such as bud flushing for sessile oaks (Quercus petraea), provide an ideal opportunity to investigate this impact. We sequenced 18 sessile oak populations and used available sequencing data for three other closely related European white oak species (Quercus pyrenaica, Quercus pubescens, and Quercus robur) to explore the evolutionary processes responsible for shaping the genetic variation across latitudinal and elevational gradients in extant sessile oaks. We used phenotypic surveys in common garden experiments and climatic data for the population of origin to perform genome-wide scans for population differentiation and genotype-environment and genotype-phenotype associations. The inferred historical relationships between Q.petraea populations suggest that interspecific gene flow occurred between Q.robur and Q.petraea populations from cooler or wetter areas. A genome-wide scan of differentiation between Q.petraea populations identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) displaying strong interspecific relative divergence between these two species. These SNPs followed genetic clines along climatic or phenotypic gradients, providing further support for the likely contribution of introgression to the adaptive divergence of Q.petraea populations. Overall, the results indicate that outliers and associated SNPs are Q.robur ancestry-informative. We discuss the results of this study in the framework of the postglacial colonization scenario, in which introgression and diversifying selection have been proposed as essential drivers of Q.petraea microevolution.

Potential impact of global warming on river runoff coming to Jor reservoir, Malaysia by integration of LARS-WG with artificial neural networks

Background: Changes in temperature and precipitation pattern seriously affect the amount of river runoff coming into Dam Lake. These changes could influence the operating conditions of reservoir systems such as Jor hydropower reservoir system (Malaysia) with the total capacity of 150 MW. So, it is necessary to analyze the effect of changes in weather parameters on the river runoff and consequently, the hydropower production. Methods: In this research, LARS-WG was used to downscale the weather parameters such as daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation based on one of the general circulation sub-model (HADCM3) under three emission scenarios, namely, A1B, A2, and B1 for the next 50 years. Then, the artificial neural network (ANN) was constructed, while rainfall and evapotranspiration were used as input data and river runoff as output data to discover the relationship between climate parameters and runoff at the present and in the future time. Results: It was revealed that the monthly mean temperature will increase approximately between 0.3- 0.7°C, while the mean monthly precipitation will vary from -22% to +22% in the next 50 years. These changes could shift the dry and wet seasons and consequently, change the river runoff volume. In most months, the results of models integration showed reductions in river runoff. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the output of hydropower reservoir system is highly dependent on the river runoff. So, the impacts of climate changes should be considered by the reservoir operators/ managers to reduce these impacts and secure water supplies.

Picoeukaryotes of the Micromonas genus: sentinels of a warming ocean.

Photosynthetic picoeukaryotesx in the genus Micromonas show among the widest latitudinal distributions on Earth, experiencing large thermal gradients from poles to tropics. Micromonas comprises at least four different species often found in sympatry. While such ubiquity might suggest a wide thermal niche, the temperature response of the different strains is still unexplored, leaving many questions as for their ecological success over such diverse ecosystems. Using combined experiments and theory, we characterize the thermal response of eleven Micromonas strains belonging to four species. We demonstrate that the variety of specific responses to temperature in the Micromonas genus makes this environmental factor an ideal marker to describe its global distribution and diversity. We then propose a diversity model for the genus Micromonas, which proves to be representative of the whole phytoplankton diversity. This prominent primary producer is therefore a sentinel organism of phytoplankton diversity at the global scale. We use the diversity within Micromonas to anticipate the potential impact of global warming on oceanic phytoplankton. We develop a dynamic, adaptive model and run forecast simulations, exploring a range of adaptation time scales, to probe the likely responses to climate change. Results stress how biodiversity erosion depends on the ability of organisms to adapt rapidly to temperature increase.

Potential impact of global warming on seed bank, dormancy and germination of three succulent species from the Chihuahuan Desert

AbstractWe assessed inter-seasonal dynamics of seed banks, dormancy and seed germination in three endemic Chihuahuan Desert succulent species, under simulated soil warming conditions. Hexagonal open top-chambers (OTCs) were used to increase soil temperature. Seeds ofEchinocactus platyacanthus(Cactaceae),Yucca filiferaandAgave striata(Asparagaceae) were collected and buried within and outside OTCs. During the course of one year, at the end of each season, seed batches were exhumed to test viability and germination. Soil temperature in OTCs was higher than in control plots.Yucca filiferaseeds always had high germination independently of warming treatment and season.Agave striataseeds from OTCs had higher germination than those from control plots.Agave striataexhibited low germination in fresh seeds, but high germination in spring. Seeds from this species lost viability throughout the experimental timeframe, and had no viable seeds remaining in the soil.Echinocactus platyacanthusshowed high germination in fresh seeds and displayed dormancy cycling, leading to high germination in spring, low germination in summer and autumn, and high germination in winter. Germination of this species was also higher in seeds from OTCs than those from control plots.Echinocactus platyacanthusformed soil seed banks and its cycle of inter-seasonal dormancy/germination could be an efficient physiological mechanism in a climate change scenario. Under global warming projections, our results suggest that future temperatures may still fall within the three studied species’ thermal germination range. However, higher germination forA. striataandE. platyacanthusat warmer temperatures may reduce the number of seeds retained in the seed bank, and this could be interpreted as limiting their ability to spread risk over time. This is the first experimental study projecting an increase in soil temperature to assess population traits of succulent plants under a climate change scenario for American deserts.

Local temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation influence migration phenology of East Asian migratory waterbirds wintering in Poyang, China.

Temperature is a critical factor influencing avian phenology, due to its direct impact on food and water availability. Most previous studies have focused on the timing of spring migration and the arrival of birds at breeding grounds along the European and American flyways; little is known about migration ecology at the wintering sites along the Asian flyways. Using linear regression models, this study investigates how local temperature variation and EI Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the arrival and departure timing of 9 waterbird species breeding in Mongolia or Siberia and overwintering in Poyang, China from 2002 to 2013. Birds mainly arrive at Poyang in October and depart for their breeding sites in March. Out of the 9 species, 6 show a strong negative relationship between departure time and overwintering temperature in Poyang. Departure dates also show a negative association with overwintering ENSO and March ENSO for two species. Both local and large-scale climate indices show no influence on the arrival timing of waterbirds. We suggest that birds react to the annual variation of overwintering temperature: an earlier departure of waterbirds is facilitated by a warmer overwintering period and vice versa. The long-term accumulated temperature effect is more pronounced than ENSO and the short-term local temperature effect. Our findings could help quantify the potential impact of global warming on waterbirds.

Potential impact of global warming on sound propagation in monsoon induced surface mixed layers

Acoustic surface ducts in mixed layers can be an important mode of sonar propagation. The precipitation from monsoons seasonally create mixed surface layers near the equator in every major ocean. Although not as robust as mixed layers that occur at higher latitudes, they may provide the best examples of the possible global warming impact on sound propagation. This would include acoustic duct propagation properties such as attenuation, surface loss, cutoff frequency, and ambient noise. This is just a first attempt, based on preliminary estimates, to evaluate possible change. To be considered are direct effects such as ocean acidification and warming water; the seasonal impact on monsoons, like greater precipitation and duration; and finally individual transient events such as storm intensity and number (including typhoons). Given the usual monsoon variability, it may be challenging to sort out changes, but monsoon duct acoustics may be a promising new area for investigators.

Potential impact of global warming on whiting in a semi-enclosed gulf

In this article, the potential impact of the rising atmospheric CO2 level on whiting in the semi-enclosed Arabian Gulf is considered. Chemical equilibrium models were developed to assess the spatial and temporal distributions of aragonite and calcite saturation indices (ΩAragonite and Ωcalcite) due to acidification resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 level. The models accounted for the spatial and temporal distributions of salinity and temperature in the surface water of the gulf, which vary in the range of 36-43 psu and 15°C to 32°C. The spatial variations of CaCO3 saturation revealed that the southern part of the gulf along the coastlines of the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain experiences the highest CaCO3 saturation levels and corresponds to the observed whiting phenomenon. Potential acidification and erosion of the whiting phenomenon in the gulf threaten the ecosystem, which deserves significant additional attention from the scientific community and decision makers in the region.

Potential impact of global warming on whiting in a semi-enclosed gulf

In this article, the potential impact of the rising atmospheric CO2 level on whiting in the semi-enclosed Arabian Gulf is considered. Chemical equilibrium models were developed to assess the spatial and temporal distributions of aragonite and calcite saturation indices (ΩAragonite and Ωcalcite) due to acidification resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 level. The models accounted for the spatial and temporal distributions of salinity and temperature in the surface water of the gulf, which vary in the range of 36-43 psu and 15°C to 32°C. The spatial variations of CaCO3 saturation revealed that the southern part of the gulf along the coastlines of the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain experiences the highest CaCO3 saturation levels and corresponds to the observed whiting phenomenon. Potential acidification and erosion of the whiting phenomenon in the gulf threaten the ecosystem, which deserves significant additional attention from the scientific community and decision makers in the region.

Comparison of process-based models to quantify nutrient flows and greenhouse gas emissions associated with milk production

Assessing and improving the sustainability of dairy production systems is essential to secure future food production. This requires a holistic approach to reveal trade-offs between emissions of the different greenhouse gases (GHG) and nutrient-based pollutants and to ensure that interactions between farm components are taken into account. Process-based models are essential to support whole-farm mass balance accounting. However, since variation between process-based model results can be large, there is a need to compare and better understand the strengths and limitations of various models. Here, we use a whole-farm mass-balance approach to compare five process-based models in terms of predicted carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows and potential global warming impact (GWI) associated with milk production at the animal, field and farm-scale. We include two whole-farm models complemented by two field-scale models and one animal-based model. A whole-farm mass-balance framework was used to facilitate model comparison at different scales. GWIs were calculated from predicted emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and soil C change. Results show that predicted whole-farm GWIs were similar for the two whole farm models, ManureDNDC and IFSM, with a predicted GWI of 9.3 and 10.8 Gg CO2eq. year−1 for ManureDNDC and IFSM, respectively. Enteric CH4 emissions were the single most important source of greenhouse gas emissions contributing 47%–70% of the total farm GWI. Model predictions were comparable, that is, within a factor of 1.5, for most flows related to the animal, barn and manure management system. In contrast, predicted field emissions of N2O and ammonia (NH3) to air, N and P losses to the hydrosphere and soil C change, were highly variable across models. This indicates that there is a need to further our understanding of soil and crop N, P and C flows and that measurement data on nutrient and C flows are particularly needed for the field. In addition, there is a need to further understand how anaerobic digestion influences manure composition and subsequent emissions of N2O and NH3 after application of digestate to the field. Empirical data on manure composition before and after anaerobic digestion are essential for model evaluation.

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

Differentiating between rain, snow, and glacier contributions to river discharge in the western Himalaya using remote-sensing data and distributed hydrological modeling

Rivers draining the southern Himalaya provide most of the water supply for the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains. Despite the importance of water resources in light of climate change, the relative contributions of rainfall, snow and glacier melt to discharge are not well understood, due to the scarcity of ground-based data in this complex terrain. Here, we quantify discharge sources in the Sutlej Valley, western Himalaya, from 2000 to 2012 with a distributed hydrological model that is based on daily, ground-calibrated remote-sensing observation. Based on the consistently good model performance, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrologic components and quantified their contribution to river discharge. Our results indicate that the Sutlej River's annual discharge at the mountain front is sourced to 55% by effective rainfall (rainfall reduced by evapotranspiration), 35% by snow melt and 10% by glacier melt. In the high-elevation orogenic interior glacial runoff contributes ∼30% to annual river discharge. These glacier melt contributions are especially important during years with substantially reduced rainfall and snowmelt runoff, as during 2004, to compensate for low river discharge and ensure sustained water supply and hydropower generation. In 2004, discharge of the Sutlej River totaled only half the maximum annual discharge; with 17.3% being sourced by glacier melt. Our findings underscore the importance of calibrating remote-sensing data with ground-based data to constrain hydrological models with reasonable accuracy. For instance, we found that TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product 3B42 V7 systematically overestimates rainfall in arid regions of our study area by a factor of up to 5. By quantifying the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources we provide an important assessment of the potential impact of global warming on river discharge in the western Himalaya. Given the near-global coverage of the utilized remote-sensing datasets this hydrological modeling approach can be readily transferred to other data-sparse regions.

Biogeografía predictiva: técnicas de modelamiento de distribución de especies y su aplicación en el impacto del cambio climático

Species distribution modeling is presented as an analytical tool for biogeography and the study of climate change impact on biodiversity. Key modeling concepts and applications are reviewed; the maximum entropy principle is described as well as its implementation in the Maxent software. Lastly, two demonstrative examples of species modeling are presented using two plant species: Pycnophyllum spathulatum (Caryophyllaceae) and Prosopis pallida (Fabaceae). Bothe species were modeled using current climate data and under a future climatic change scenario based on RCP8.5 to examine the potential impact of global warming on the species’ distribution.

DDTs and HCHs in sediment cores from the Tibetan Plateau

Sediment cores were collected from five critical regions in the Tibetan Plateau and were analysed for OCPs with the objective of examining the time trends and recycling of DDTs and HCHs in the cryogenic area. A concurrent increase of the DDT and HCH concentrations from the late 1980s in Lake Yamzho Yumco, Nam Co and Star Sea were observed. The increasing levels of DDE/DDTs (>0.4) suggested that DDT in the upper layers of the sediment cores may be recycled/“weathered” DDT. Regarding the acceleration of glacier retreat from the 1980s due to global warming, it is suggested that OCPs formerly trapped either in the snow/glacier or in the frozen soil land recently reclaimed in the processes of glacier retreat may have been flushed into the sedimentary basins. These findings demonstrate the potential impact of global warming on the recycling of POPs in the plateau cryosphere and indicate that the pristine Tibetan Plateau may serve as one of the key probes to the global trend of POPs.

Quantifying the global warming potential of CO2 emissions from wood fuels

AbstractRecent studies have introduced the metric GWPbio, an indicator of the potential global warming impact of CO2 emissions from biofuels. When a time horizon of 100 years was applied, the studies found the GWPbio of bioenergy from slow‐growing forests to be significantly lower than the traditionally calculated GWP of CO2 from fossil fuels. This result means that bioenergy is an attractive energy source from a climate mitigation perspective. The present paper provides an improved method for quantifying GWPbio. The method is based on a model of a forest stand that includes basic dynamics and interactions of the forest's multiple carbon pools, including harvest residues, other dead organic matter, and soil carbon. Moreover, the baseline scenario (with no harvest) takes into account that a mature stand will usually continue to capture carbon if not harvested. With these methodological adjustments, the resulting GWPbio estimates are found to be two to three times as high as the estimates of GWPbio found in other studies, and also significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO2, when a 100‐year time horizon is applied. Hence, the climate impact per unit of CO2 emitted seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow‐growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100‐year time frame.

English

There has been considerable increase in interest in the conversion of renewable resources into several essential products (for example, biofuel, amino acids, among others) over the last few years, as the potential impact of global warming is demanding technologies that close the carbon cycle. Utilization of the hemicellulose fraction from lignocellulosic biomass is an important factor to optimize for the economicallyl feasible products. The bioconversion of pentoses derived from hemicellulose remains a bottleneck in developing industrial production, as microbes either preferentially use glucose, or cannot use pentoses at all. Sugar cane bagasse is one of the best candidates to have large amount of hemicelluloses for industrial interest. The aim of this review paper is to study research conducted on pentose utilizing bacteria, a variety of effects during break down of hemicellulose and the industrial importance of those bacteria.   Key words: Lignocelluloses, hemicellulose, pentose, xylose.