Potential Impact Of Climate Warming Research Articles

Significance of Direct and Indirect Impacts of Temperature Increase Driven by Climate Change on Threat to Oilseed Rape Posed by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum.

Sclerotinia stem rot, caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, threatens oilseed rape (Brassica napus) crops internationally. The development of this disease is strongly controlled by the weather, which is why global climate change is likely to influence its spread and impact. Climate change may affect the pathogen directly or indirectly via the host plant. This study investigates the potential impact of climate warming on Sclerotinia stem rot severity in oilseed rape in Poland. The aim of this investigation was to assess the relationship between the direct impact (DI) and indirect impact (II) of climate change on disease severity using the 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Under the RCP4.5 scenario, nearly 60% of the simulations performed for 16 regions in four periods (2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, 2080-2099) showed reductions in disease severity in comparison to those conducted for 1986-2005, while under RCP 8.5, this reduction was generated for nearly 90% of the cases. The effect of the RCP scenario on clustering the regions according to the value of Sclerotinia stem rot severity was also investigated. The simulations revealed that, for all periods, the lowest disease severities are expected for Zachodniopomorskie and Pomorskie. The results obtained also show the superior effects of the II over the DI on Sclerotinia stem rot severity in the future. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the rate of IIs was greater than that of DIs for 10 regions, while under RCP8.5, this relationship was registered for 16 regions. These outcomes result from the acceleration of the oilseed rape flowering period triggered by expected temperature increases. The novelty of this study lies in a detailed analysis of the relationships between the DI and II of climate change, expressed numerically, for 16 regions in Poland. The obtained results highlight the role of the indirect impact in shaping disease severity and indicate that it should be incorporated into assessment methods of climate change effects alongside the direct impact.

Response of water quality to climate warming and atmospheric deposition in an alpine lake of Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Alpine lakes are usually unaffected by anthropogenic disturbance, yet these aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate warming and atmospheric deposition. It is unclear how water quality of alpine lakes has responded to these environmental changes. Unprecedented degradation in water quality (characterized by nutrient enrichment and phytoplankton blooms) had occurred in the Tianchi Lake, an alpine lake in the Tianshan Mountains. Here we measured the dust and precipitation chemistry to assess the source, magnitude, and impact of atmospheric deposition on nutrient stoichiometry of Tianchi Lake. Long-term (2015–2021) limnological data consisted of nutrient and chlorophyll were used to quantify the trends of lake water quality, as well as the association between phytoplankton biomass and air temperature. We proposed a critical nutrient model based on water quality guarantee probability to estimate the maximum allowable nutrient load. The results indicated that air pollutants from urban agglomeration and dust derived from semi-arid region represented the primary sources of atmospheric nutrient, which contributed 6.86 t nitrogen (N) and 0.23 t phosphorus (P) to the lake during 2021. Enhanced fertilization effect on phytoplankton due to high atmospheric deposition was expected to promote phytoplankton blooms, but unbalanced N:P ratio would exacerbate the P limitation of primary productivity. Climate warming seemed equally crucial synergistically to stimulate phytoplankton growth, the first appearance of phytoplankton blooms corresponded to the beginning of the warm period. Further studies had shown that increase in frequency and duration of heat waves would accelerate the eutrophication. To mitigate water quality degradation, the critical nutrient model suggested that 40.63 t N and 0.49 t P should be reduced. We conclude that the synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric deposition exacerbate the water quality of Tianchi Lake, even though it was protected well by strict environmental policies. More studies should be conducted to assess the potential impact of climate warming and atmospheric deposition on alpine lakes to ensure water quality safety and water ecological security.

The negative impact of increasing temperatures on rice yields in southern China

China is the main producer and consumer of rice in the world, and rice is a major staple food grain for more than half of the world's population. Reduced rice yields caused by climate factors not only affect the food security of China, but also has global repercussions. Thus, it is vital to assess the potential impact of climate warming on rice production. Using daily temperature and phenology records of double-cropping rice from agro-meteorological stations in southern China, the influence of increased temperatures on rice yields during the last several decades was investigated. Associated with an increase in average daily mean temperatures by 0.7 °C during 2009–2018 relative to 1961–1970, Killing Degree Days (KDD), an indicator for damaging high temperature, for early and late rice increased by 110% and 88.6% respectively. However, the negative influence of KDDs on yields was mainly evident for early rice, because high temperatures occurred frequently during the sensitive grain-filling period; early-rice yields showed a decrease of 8% per 1 °C increase in mean growing season air temperature. Late rice yields, on the other hand, were not as negatively influenced by increasing temperatures as early rice, because high temperature usually occurred during the vegetative growth stage, which was not so sensitive to high temperature.

茶园重要捕食性天敌白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区预测

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 茶园重要捕食性天敌白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区预测 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202107021766 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 福建省创新战略研究计划项目（2020R0036）；国家自然科学基金项目（31501650）；福建农林大学科技创新专项基金（CXZX2019009G）；福建农林大学茶产业链科技创新与服务体系建设项目（K1520005A03） Prediction of potential geographical distribution of predatory enemy Evarcha albaria in tea plantations in China Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:白斑猎蛛是茶园重要的捕食性天敌，对茶园害虫生物防治起着重要作用。研究白斑猎蛛的潜在分布范围以及气候变暖对其分布潜在的影响，对保护和利用白斑猎蛛，充分发挥其对茶园害虫的生态调控作用具有重要意义。基于白斑猎蛛当前在中国的163个分布点和6个环境变量，利用MaxEnt模型预测当前及未来（2050年）2种气候情景（SSP2_4.5、SSP5_8.5）下白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区。结果显示，MaxEnt模型对白斑猎蛛潜在适生区分布预测具有较好的准确度，平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.852；测试样本遗漏率与预测遗漏率基本吻合，模型构建效果很好。白斑猎蛛在中国大部分省份均有分布，当前适宜分布区总面积约为429.93万km2，占国土总面积的44.78%；高适生区主要分布在山东、河南、江苏、安徽、湖北、重庆、浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、福建。未来气候情景下，白斑猎蛛潜在适生区面积呈扩大趋势，主要体现在新疆、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、陕西、广东、广西、海南的适生区范围扩张。在SSP5_8.5气候情景下，总适生区面积变化最大，由当前的429.93万km2增加到562.22万km2，增幅达30.77%。未来两种气候情景下，白斑猎蛛的潜在适生区范围相对当前均有不同程度的扩大和北移。利用Jackknife刀切法计算得到影响白斑猎蛛潜在分布的主要环境变量为最冷月份最低温（bio6）、最湿月份降水量（bio13）、最干月份降水量（bio14）和最暖季平均温度（bio10）。白斑猎蛛广泛分布于中国大部分地区，未来气候条件有利于其生存和繁殖。应加强白斑猎蛛的保护和利用，充分挖掘并发挥其对茶园害虫的控害作用，减少茶园化学农药使用，保障茶叶安全优质生产和茶产业的可持续发展。 Abstract:Evarcha albaria (L. Koch) is an important predatory enemy in tea plantations, which plays an important role in biological control of pests in tea plantations. To study the potential distribution range of the E. albaria and the potential impact of climate warming on its distribution is of great significance for protecting and utilizing the E. albaria and giving full play to its ecological regulation on pests in tea plantations. In this study, based on the current 163 distribution sites and 6 environmental variables in China, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential distribution regions of the E. albaria in current and future (2050) under two climate scenarios (SSP2_4.5 and SSP5_8.5) in China. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good accuracy in predicting the distribution of potential suitable regions of the E. albaria, and the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.852; The missing rate of test samples was basically consistent with the predicted missing rate, and the model construction effect was very good. The suitable distribution regions of the E. albaria were about 4.2993 million km2, accounting for 44.78% of the total area of China. The high suitable regions were mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Fujian in current. Under the future climate scenarios, the potential suitable regions of the E. albaria were expanding, mainly in Xinjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. Under the SSP5_8.5 climate scenario, the total suitable regions changed the most, from the current 4.2993 million km2 to 5.6222 million km2, an increase of 30.77%. Under the two future climate scenarios, the potential suitable distribution regions of the E. albaria will expand and move northward in varying degrees compared with the current. The main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of the E. albaria were the lowest temperature in the coldest month (bio6), the precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), the precipitation in the driest month (bio14), and the average temperature in the warmest season (bio10), which calculated by Jackknife method. The E. albaria is widely distributed in most regions of China, and the future climate conditions are conducive to its survival and reproduction. In order to ensure the safe and high-quality production of tea and the sustainable development of tea industry, it is necessary to strengthen the protection and utilization of the E. albaria, fully exploit and play its biological control, and reduce the use of chemical pesticides in tea plantations. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Foliar water uptake of fog confers ecophysiological benefits to four common tree species of southeastern freshwater forested wetlands

AbstractFog, dew and cloud‐borne mist are sources of water to vegetation in many ecosystems. The importance of fog as a water source has been documented well beyond ecosystems where plants experience fog for extensive periods over the course of the day (e.g. cloud forests); however, relatively little is known regarding the roles of fog and foliar water uptake in ecosystems such as coastal freshwater wetlands that do not experience fog for extensive periods over the course of the day. Coastal freshwater wetland ecosystems lie on the forefront of climate change‐associated stressors that threaten freshwater supplies to vegetation. Considering the potential impact of climate warming on diminishing coastal fog regimes, an improved understanding of the ecophysiological benefits of fog immersion to the vegetation in these ecosystems is critical for understanding the response of these ecosystems to global climate change. Herein, we investigate the potential for foliar water deposition from fog to act as a direct freshwater subsidy to four tree species (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich., Nyssa aquatica L., Nyssa biflora Walter and Liquidambar styraciflua L.) that are common in coastal freshwater wetlands. All four species showed the capacity for foliar water uptake across the leaf/needle surface, with a ca. 5–10% increase in leaf water content after a 3‐h submersion experiment. Stable isotopes of water provided strong evidence for foliar water uptake in all four species and for bark water uptake in T. distichum after a 24‐h fogging experiment. Fog exposure also resulted in several ecophysiological benefits to the saplings, including significant improvements in pre‐dawn water status and net photosynthesis.

Freshwater species distributions along thermal gradients.

The distribution of a species along a thermal gradient is commonly approximated by a unimodal response curve, with a characteristic single optimum near the temperature where a species is most likely to be found, and a decreasing probability of occurrence away from the optimum. We aimed at identifying thermal response curves (TRCs) of European freshwater species and evaluating the potential impact of climate warming across species, taxonomic groups, and latitude. We first applied generalized additive models using catchment‐scale global data on distribution ranges of 577 freshwater species native to Europe and four different temperature variables (the current annual mean air/water temperature and the maximum air/water temperature of the warmest month) to describe species TRCs. We then classified TRCs into one of eight curve types and identified spatial patterns in thermal responses. Finally, we integrated empirical TRCs and the projected geographic distribution of climate warming to evaluate the effect of rising temperatures on species’ distributions. For the different temperature variables, 390–463 of 577 species (67.6%–80.2%) were characterized by a unimodal TRC. The number of species with a unimodal TRC decreased from central toward northern and southern Europe. Warming tolerance (WT = maximum temperature of occurrence—preferred temperature) was higher at higher latitudes. Preferred temperature of many species is already exceeded. Rising temperatures will affect most Mediterranean species. We demonstrated that freshwater species’ occurrence probabilities are most frequently unimodal. The impact of the global climate warming on species distributions is species and latitude dependent. Among the studied taxonomic groups, rising temperatures will be most detrimental to fish. Our findings support the efforts of catchment‐based freshwater management and conservation in the face of global warming.

Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States

Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime “hot days” on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid.

Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.

Induced climate change impairs photosynthetic performance in Echinocactus platyacanthus, an especially protected Mexican cactus species

The responses of desert plants to climate warming have been poorly assessed, perhaps due to the overall expectation that desert vegetation will expand as a consequence of this component of climate change. However, determining what plant species will tolerate the expected increase in temperature is a question that remains unanswered. The Chihuahuan Desert is the largest warm desert of North America, and predictive models of climate change indicate that summer temperatures in this desert will increase by 1–2°C in the next decade. This study experimentally assessed the performance of an endangered cacti species from the Chihuahuan Desert under simulated warming conditions. Hexagonal open top-chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate the effects of global warming on five-years-old individuals of the specially protected species Echinocactus platyacanthus. Temperature was 1.9°C higher in open top-chambers than in control plots. In contrast, relative humidity was 3.1% higher in control plots than in open top-chambers. E. platyacanthus showed 100% survival for 14 weeks in both OTC and control plots. However, induced warming negatively affected the photosynthetic performance of this species. Cacti located within OTCs displayed lower maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm), effective quantum yield of photosystem II (ΦPSII), and electron transport rate (ETR) values, but higher non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) values, than cacti from control plots. This is the first study focused on the potential impact of climate warming on survival and photosynthetic performance of young individuals of a succulent species from American deserts. Induced warming negatively affected the photosynthetic performance of young E. platyacanthus, but it also increased non-photochemical quenching, a mechanism for avoiding photoinhibition.

Rainfall seasonality and an ecohydrological feedback offset the potential impact of climate warming on evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge

The potential impact of projected climate warming on the terrestrial hydrologic cycle is uncertain. This problem has evaded experimentalists due to the overwhelming challenge of measuring the entire water budget and introducing experimental warming treatments in open environmental systems. We present new data from a mesocosm experiment that examined the combined responses of evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and potential groundwater recharge (R; lysimeter drainage) to a 3.5°C temperature increase in a grassland ecosystem experiencing a Mediterranean climate. The temperature increase was applied both symmetrically throughout the day, and asymmetrically such that daily minimum temperature was 5°C greater than ambient and daily maximum temperature was 2°C greater than ambient. Our results span 3 water years and show that symmetric and asymmetric warming-enhanced ET during the spring. However, this increase in ET reduced soil moisture more rapidly, resulting in less ET during the summer than occurred under ambient temperature, and no difference in total ET during the combined spring and summer (March to October). Groundwater recharge was reduced during late-spring storms relative to the ambient temperature treatment, but these reductions were less than 4% of total annual R, and were offset by slightly greater R in the fall under both warming treatments. The results highlight the potential for local interactions between temperature, vegetation, and soils to moderate the hydrological response to climate warming, particularly in environments where precipitation is seasonal and out of phase with the vegetation growing season.

Aedes(Stegomyia)aegyptiin the Continental United States: A Vector at the Cool Margin of Its Geographic Range

After more than a half century without recognized local dengue outbreaks in the continental United States, there were recent outbreaks of autochthonous dengue in the southern parts of Texas (2004-2005) and Florida (2009-2011). This dengue reemergence has provoked interest in the extent of the future threat posed by the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.), the primary vector of dengue and yellow fever viruses in urban settings, to human health in the continental United States. Ae. aegypti is an intriguing example of a vector species that not only occurs in the southernmost portions of the eastern United States today but also is incriminated as the likely primary vector in historical outbreaks of yellow fever as far north as New York, Philadelphia, and Boston, from the 1690s to the 1820s. For vector species with geographic ranges limited, in part, by low temperature and cool range margins occurring in the southern part of the continental United States, as is currently the case for Ae. aegypti, it is tempting to speculate that climate warming may result in a northward range expansion (similar to that seen for Ixodes tick vectors of Lyme borreliosis spirochetes in Scandinavia and southern Canada in recent decades). Although there is no doubt that climate conditions directly impact many aspects of the life history of Ae. aegypti, this mosquito also is closely linked to the human environment and directly influenced by the availability of water-holding containers for oviposition and larval development. Competition with other container-inhabiting mosquito species, particularly Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), also may impact the presence and local abundance of Ae. aegypti. Field-based studies that focus solely on the impact of weather or climate factors on the presence and abundance of Ae. aegypti, including assessments of the potential impact of climate warming on the mosquito's future range and abundance, do not consider the potential confounding effects of socioeconomic factors or biological competitors for establishment and proliferation of Ae. aegypti. The results of such studies therefore should not be assumed to apply in areas with different socioeconomic conditions or composition of container-inhabiting mosquito species. For example, results from field-based studies at the high altitude cool margins for Ae. aegypti in Mexico's central highlands or the Andes in South America cannot be assumed to be directly applicable to geographic areas in the United States with comparable climate conditions. Unfortunately, we have a very poor understanding of how climatic drivers interact with the human landscape and biological competitors to impact establishment and proliferation of Ae. aegypti at the cool margin of its range in the continental United States. A first step toward assessing the future threat this mosquito poses to human health in the continental United States is to design and conduct studies across strategic climatic and socioeconomic gradients in the United States (including the U.S.-Mexico border area) to determine the permissiveness of the coupled natural and human environment for Ae. aegypti at the present time. This approach will require experimental studies and field surveys that focus specifically on climate conditions relevant to the continental United States. These studies also must include assessments of how the human landscape, particularly the impact of availability of larval developmental sites and the permissiveness of homes for mosquito intrusion, and the presence of other container-inhabiting mosquitoes that may compete with Ae. aegypti for larval habitat affects the ability of Ae. aegypti to establish and proliferate. Until we are armed with such knowledge, it is not possible to meaningfully assess the potential for climate warming to impact the proliferation potential for Ae. aegypti in the United States outside of the geographic areas where the mosquito already is firmly established, and even less so for dengue virus transmission and dengue disease in humans.

Effects of regional warming on extreme monthly low temperatures distribution in China

Using generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) function, the regional characteristic of extreme monthly low temperatures (EMLT) distribution during 1960-2007 in China is studied, and the potential impact of climate warming on EMLT regions in China is analysed. The results show that EMLT space distribution has latitudinal difference in China. Higher-value EMLT events are likely to happen in northeastern and southwestern China, while EMLT variability and occurrence probability of high-value EMLT events are less in the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin and the coast of southern China. The study indicates that climate warming impacts EMLT, and EMLT distribution responds to the climate warming over most areas of China. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Potential impact of climate warming on the recruitment of an economically and ecologically important species, the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) at Helgoland, North Sea

A laboratory-based study was performed to assess the impact of climate warming on the recruitment of the endangered population of the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) at Helgoland (North Sea, German Bight). Egg-bearing females collected in situ just after spawning in late summer were subjected to various seasonal temperature regimes. Regimes with elevated temperatures (mild winters) resulted in a strong seasonal forward shift of larval hatching. Hatching took place at significantly lower temperatures than under regimes with normal winters. Experiments on larval development across a range of constant temperatures showed that no successful larval development occurred at temperatures below 14°C. Larval survival increased from 9% at 14°C to 80% at 22°C, while duration of larval development decreased correspondingly from 26 to 13 days. We hypothesize that an ongoing warming of the North Sea will strongly affect the recruitment success of the Helgoland lobster, mainly resulting from a decoupling of the seasonal peak appearance of larvae from optimal external conditions (temperature, food availability) for larval development.

Plant adaptations to overwintering stresses and implications of climate change

Winter survival is a complex trait that does not solely rely on the plant's ability to withstand the direct effects of extreme cold temperatures. During long overwintering periods, plants are exposed to multiple abiotic (ice encasement, frost heave, desiccation, anoxia) and biotic (snow mould and other psychrophylic pathogens) stresses. Tolerance to these various stresses is based in part on shared adaptive traits and, consequently, cross-adaptation to environmental stresses is a key aspect of plant adaptation to cold. Increasing evidence of multiple functions for stress-induced proteins in overwintering plants confirms the need for a global approach in the analysis of adaptive mechanisms. From that perspective, the valorization of rapidly increasing knowledge on the molecular and genetic basis of plant and microbe adaptations to cold will demand multidisciplinary collaborations. Climate change will also need to be taken into account to identify the adaptive traits that will be required for agricultural and forest plants to survive winter in the future. More studies at the global and regional scales will be needed to assess the potential impact of climate warming on plant adaptation to winter and their interactions with low-temperature pathogens.Key words: cold adaptation, psychrophylic microorganisms, climate change, fall dormancy, low-temperature plant–microbe interactions, cold-adaptation genomics.

Climate-Change Effects on Alpine Plant Biodiversity: A New Zealand Perspective on Quantifying the Threat

New Zealand’s alpine region is populated by many (∼613) species of vascular plants with a high endemism (∼93%). To investigate the potential impact of climate warming, we used species-area relations to estimate current and projected vascular plant floras and tested model sensitivity scaling from the whole world to small alpine regions.Within their limitations, these models show that if the present mean temperature of ∼0.6°C higher than in 1900 were maintained, together with a large pool of exotic species, 40–70 species of native plants could become at risk. With a rise of 3°C, an approximate expectation for the following 100 yr, the total New Zealand alpine vascular flora could reach ∼550–685 species and lose 200–300 indigenous alpine species, the rest being exotic. Fragmentation of alpine areas could, over millennia, favor speciation, but in the short term, the loss of ∼80% of existing alpine islands will severely increase extinction risks.These model projections will be modified by downward extension of species through unplanned vegetation destruction, or following deliberate vegetation clearance to create habitats favorable to alpine species, as well as through a number of other as yet unquantified factors. These projections are not predictions of extinctions but rather broad probabilities of risk to a whole flora.

Potential Impact of Climate Warming on the Yangtze Floods and Estimation of the Yangtze Floods Based on Hypothetical Climatic Scenarios

Potential Impact of Climate Warming on the Yangtze Floods and Estimation of the Yangtze Floods Based on Hypothetical Climatic Scenarios

Potential impact of climate warming on the distribution of the Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica , on the Iberian Peninsula

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to impact the world's climate on a time-scale of just decades. We simulated the potential impact of climate warming on the range of the Iberian endemic Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica, by extrapolating present-day GIS-based distribution models. The results indicated a significant decrease in the distribution of the species for 2050 and 2080, with losses ranging from 19 to 35% in Portugal and from 17 to 22% in Spain. The models also predict the fragmentation of the species range, in a pattern mirroring past distributions inferred from the spatial analysis of genetic data.

Potential impact of climate warming on recreational fishing opportunities for Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in Newfoundland, Canada

Potential impacts of climate warming on recreational fishing opportunities were addressed by assessing the frequency and extent that Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., rivers in Newfoundland have been closed over a 25‐year period (1975 to 1999) because of warm water temperatures and low water levels. On average, approximately 28% of all salmon rivers were temporarily closed annually, with over 70% affected in some years. This has resulted in a loss of 35–65% of the potential fishing days available in some salmon fishing areas with the collective 1995 to 1999 period being impacted the most over the past two decades. Geographically, west and south‐west coastal rivers were affected less from environmental closures than east and some south coast fishing areas. A trend for increased closures of rivers related to environmental reasons could reduce the economic importance of the recreational salmon fishery and also make it more difficult to assess the status of Atlantic salmon stocks, which is a requirement for conservation of the resource.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the growth of Sitka spruce in Scotland

A regression model developed to predict the general yield class (GYC, maximum mean annual volume increment) of Sitka spruce (Piceasitchensis (Bong.) Carrière) from a range of site factors has been used to assess the potential impact of climate warming on the growth of Sitka spruce in Scotland. The model was interfaced with a geographic information system to predict and map the GYC of Sitka spruce across Scotland under a number of climate change scenarios. GYC was predicted to increase by 2.8 m3•ha−1•year−1 per °C rise in temperature when a uniform temperature increase was assumed during the year. A more likely assumption is a greater warming during winter months, and under such a scenario the increase in mean GYC was predicted to be 2.4 m3•ha−1•year−1•°C−1 because of a negative correlation between growth rate and mean winter temperature. When assessed in terms of land area capable of supporting a GYC greater than 18 m3•ha−1•year−1 (a value likely to provide an internal rate of return of approximately 6%), this area was predicted to almost double within the next 20 years with a similar increase occurring during the subsequent 40 years.