Abstract
The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to impact the world's climate on a time-scale of just decades. We simulated the potential impact of climate warming on the range of the Iberian endemic Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica, by extrapolating present-day GIS-based distribution models. The results indicated a significant decrease in the distribution of the species for 2050 and 2080, with losses ranging from 19 to 35% in Portugal and from 17 to 22% in Spain. The models also predict the fragmentation of the species range, in a pattern mirroring past distributions inferred from the spatial analysis of genetic data.
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