茶园重要捕食性天敌白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区预测

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 茶园重要捕食性天敌白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区预测 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202107021766 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 福建省创新战略研究计划项目（2020R0036）；国家自然科学基金项目（31501650）；福建农林大学科技创新专项基金（CXZX2019009G）；福建农林大学茶产业链科技创新与服务体系建设项目（K1520005A03） Prediction of potential geographical distribution of predatory enemy Evarcha albaria in tea plantations in China Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:白斑猎蛛是茶园重要的捕食性天敌，对茶园害虫生物防治起着重要作用。研究白斑猎蛛的潜在分布范围以及气候变暖对其分布潜在的影响，对保护和利用白斑猎蛛，充分发挥其对茶园害虫的生态调控作用具有重要意义。基于白斑猎蛛当前在中国的163个分布点和6个环境变量，利用MaxEnt模型预测当前及未来（2050年）2种气候情景（SSP2_4.5、SSP5_8.5）下白斑猎蛛在中国的潜在适生区。结果显示，MaxEnt模型对白斑猎蛛潜在适生区分布预测具有较好的准确度，平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值为0.852；测试样本遗漏率与预测遗漏率基本吻合，模型构建效果很好。白斑猎蛛在中国大部分省份均有分布，当前适宜分布区总面积约为429.93万km2，占国土总面积的44.78%；高适生区主要分布在山东、河南、江苏、安徽、湖北、重庆、浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、福建。未来气候情景下，白斑猎蛛潜在适生区面积呈扩大趋势，主要体现在新疆、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、陕西、广东、广西、海南的适生区范围扩张。在SSP5_8.5气候情景下，总适生区面积变化最大，由当前的429.93万km2增加到562.22万km2，增幅达30.77%。未来两种气候情景下，白斑猎蛛的潜在适生区范围相对当前均有不同程度的扩大和北移。利用Jackknife刀切法计算得到影响白斑猎蛛潜在分布的主要环境变量为最冷月份最低温（bio6）、最湿月份降水量（bio13）、最干月份降水量（bio14）和最暖季平均温度（bio10）。白斑猎蛛广泛分布于中国大部分地区，未来气候条件有利于其生存和繁殖。应加强白斑猎蛛的保护和利用，充分挖掘并发挥其对茶园害虫的控害作用，减少茶园化学农药使用，保障茶叶安全优质生产和茶产业的可持续发展。 Abstract:Evarcha albaria (L. Koch) is an important predatory enemy in tea plantations, which plays an important role in biological control of pests in tea plantations. To study the potential distribution range of the E. albaria and the potential impact of climate warming on its distribution is of great significance for protecting and utilizing the E. albaria and giving full play to its ecological regulation on pests in tea plantations. In this study, based on the current 163 distribution sites and 6 environmental variables in China, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential distribution regions of the E. albaria in current and future (2050) under two climate scenarios (SSP2_4.5 and SSP5_8.5) in China. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good accuracy in predicting the distribution of potential suitable regions of the E. albaria, and the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.852; The missing rate of test samples was basically consistent with the predicted missing rate, and the model construction effect was very good. The suitable distribution regions of the E. albaria were about 4.2993 million km2, accounting for 44.78% of the total area of China. The high suitable regions were mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Fujian in current. Under the future climate scenarios, the potential suitable regions of the E. albaria were expanding, mainly in Xinjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. Under the SSP5_8.5 climate scenario, the total suitable regions changed the most, from the current 4.2993 million km2 to 5.6222 million km2, an increase of 30.77%. Under the two future climate scenarios, the potential suitable distribution regions of the E. albaria will expand and move northward in varying degrees compared with the current. The main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of the E. albaria were the lowest temperature in the coldest month (bio6), the precipitation in the wettest month (bio13), the precipitation in the driest month (bio14), and the average temperature in the warmest season (bio10), which calculated by Jackknife method. The E. albaria is widely distributed in most regions of China, and the future climate conditions are conducive to its survival and reproduction. In order to ensure the safe and high-quality production of tea and the sustainable development of tea industry, it is necessary to strengthen the protection and utilization of the E. albaria, fully exploit and play its biological control, and reduce the use of chemical pesticides in tea plantations. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献