Potential Geographic Distribution Research Articles

Spatial ensemble learning for predicting the potential geographical distribution of invasive species

Understanding the geographical distribution of invasive species is beneficial for preventing and controlling biological invasions. A global model is often constructed with existing species distribution models (SDMs) to describe the relationships between environmental characteristics and species distributions. Because of the spatial variations in environmental characteristics, it may be difficult for a single SDM to obtain an accurate result in any given location or area. Therefore, a spatial ensemble learning method for predicting the potential geographical distribution of invasive species is presented in this study. The method mainly includes two types of learners: one learner is a base learner used to predict the geographical distribution of invasive species, and the other learner is a spatial ensemble learner for combining predictions from different base learners. In this research, spatial ensemble learning is used to predict the geographical distribution of Erigeron annuus in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. The kappa coefficient and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) obtained with the spatial ensemble learner are 0.88 and 0.94, respectively, and these values are greater than those obtained using three base learners and other ensemble strategies. This demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of spatial ensemble learning.

No evidence for niche competition in the extinction of the South American saber-tooth species

The end of South American isolation during the Great American Biotic Interchange (GABI) promoted the contact between South and North American saber-tooth forms that evolved in isolation. This contact may have driven saber-tooth species to a competitive interaction, resulting in the extinction of the South American saber-tooth form. Here, we used paleoclimatic data to compare the climatic niche of the saber-tooth forms Thylacosmilus atrox (from South America), Smilodon fatalis, and Smilodon populator (both originally from North America). We evaluated niche width, overlap, and similarity to infer potential geographic distribution overlap and competition between these North and South American predators. To do so, we obtained the climatic variables from sites where occurrence fossil records were available. Our results suggest that T. atrox had a narrower climatic niche compared to Smilodon species. Although we found a significant climatic niche overlap and similarity between S. fatalis and T. atrox, it seems unlikely that both species have co-occurred. Low niche overlap and similarity between T. atrox and S. populator dismiss competitive interaction between them. Moreover, climatic niche and low tolerance for environmental changes may have been the cause of the South American saber-tooth extinction.

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution of Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. in China Based on Future Climate Change Using the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. (Magnoliales: Magnoliaceae), valued for its medicinal properties and timber and as an ornamental plant, is now classified as an endangered species. Investigating how future climate-change scenarios might affect the potential geographic distribution of L. chinense will provide a crucial scientific basis for its protection and management strategies. The MaxEnt model was calibrated using the ENMeval optimization package, and then it was coupled with ArcGIS 10.8 to forecast the possible distribution areas of L. chinense in China, utilizing elevation data, bioclimatic factors, and human footprint as environmental variables. The results indicate: (1) The optimal model parameters were set as follows: FC = LQ, RM = 0.5, the MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy and minimal overfitting; (2) The total suitable habitat area for the potential geographical distribution of L. chinense during the current period is estimated at 151.55 × 104 km2, predominantly located in central, eastern, and southwestern regions of China; (3) The minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), elevation (alt), and human footprint (hf) are the main environmental variables determining the suitable habitat distribution of L. chinense; (4) During the period from 2041 to 2060, under the carbon emission scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370, the suitable habitat for L. chinense shows varying degrees of increase compared to the current period. However, under the highest concentration scenario of SSP585, the suitable habitat area decreases to some extent; (5) The distribution of L. chinense is likely to move towards higher latitudes and elevations in the future due to changes in the climate. This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on L. chinense, offering valuable information for its protection and management under future climatic conditions.

Predicting global geographical distribution and latitudinal suitability gradient for light brown apple moth

Epiphyas postvittana, commonly known as the light brown apple moth (LBAM), is native to Australia and has a restricted global distribution. Its polyphagous nature and the recent surge in interceptions have emphasized the need for focused risk assessments to guide effective measures to curb the entry of this pest into new countries. This study aimed to perform a detailed global invasion risk assessment using an optimized MaxEnt model that incorporated 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation. The predictive outcomes underscored the significance of key variables, specifically the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), in shaping the potential geographical distribution of LBAM. Regions beyond the existing range, including the southeastern United States, southern Brazil, eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Chile, and various Western European countries, were identified as susceptible to invasion and establishment by LBAM. An increase in suitability was observed above 45°N and 40°S under future climate scenario. With respect to climate change, LBAM would expand its potential range in Western Europe and the United States, especially under SSP5-8.5, in the 2050s. An upward trend in the latitudinal suitability gradient for LBAM in mid-high latitude areas implies that amid changing climate conditions, LBAM may find favorable habitats in these regions. For countries and regions with invasion risk, it is imperative to implement corresponding inspections and quarantine measures to thwart the introduction of LBAM, particularly in countries with established trade ties with invaded regions.

Forecasting the future of Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in India using ecological niche model.

The Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda is the most notorious invasive pest species on maize, recently reported in India. The continuous spread of Fall armyworms to new ecological niches raises global concern. The current study is the first in India to forecast the suitability of a habitat for S. frugiperda using a maximum entropy algorithm. Predictions were made based on an analysis of the relationship between 109 occurrence records of S. frugiperda and pertinent historical, current, and predicted climatic data for the study area. The model indicated that S. frugiperda could thrive in different habitats under the current environmental circumstances, particularly in the west and south Indian states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The model predicted that areas with higher latitudes, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and some portions of Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as some tracts of northeastern states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, would have highly climate-suitable conditions for S. frugiperda to occur in the future. The average AUC value was 0.852, which indicates excellent accuracy of the prediction. A Jackknife test of variables indicated that isothermality with the highest gain value was determining the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda. Our results will be useful for serving as an early warning tool to guide decision-making and prevent further spread toward new areas in India.

Climate as a Predictive Factor for Invasion: Unravelling the Range Dynamics of Carpomya vesuviana Costa.

Invasive alien species (IAS) significantly affect global native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health. Carpomya vesuviana Costa, 1854 (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant global IAS, affects various date species, leading to substantial economic losses and adverse effects on human health and the environment. This study employed biomod2 ensemble models, multivariate environmental similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analyses, and ecological niche dynamics based on environmental and species data to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and explore the environmental variables affecting observed patterns and impacts. Compared to native ranges, ecological niche shifts at invaded sites increased the invasion risk of C. vesuviana globally. The potential geographical distribution was primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia, with a gradual increase in suitability with time and radiation levels. The potential geographic distribution centre of C. vesuviana is likely to shift poleward between the present and the 2090s. We also show that precipitation is a key factor influencing the likely future distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographic range and ecological niche of C. vesuviana, requiring effective transnational management strategies to mitigate its impacts on the natural environment and public health during the Anthropocene. This study aims to assess the potential threat of C. vesuviana to date palms globally through quantitative analytical methods. By modelling and analysing its potential geographic distribution, ecological niche, and environmental similarities, this paper predicts the pest's dispersal potential and possible transfer trends in geographic centres of mass in order to provide prevention and control strategies for the global date palm industry.

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Capparis spinosa

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Capparis spinosa

Temperature extremes nip invasive macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray in the bud: potential geographic distributions and risk assessment based on future climate change and anthropogenic influences.

Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray, an ornamental submerged plant indigenous to tropical America, has been introduced to numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, impacting native aquatic ecosystems. Given this species is a popular aquarium plant and widely traded, there is a high risk of introduction and invasion into other environments. In the current study the potential global geographic distribution of C. caroliniana was predicted under the effects of climate change and human influence in an optimised MaxEnt model. The model used rigorously screened occurrence records of C. caroliniana from hydro informatic datasets and 20 associated influencing factors. The findings indicate that temperature and human-mediated activities significantly influenced the distribution of C. caroliniana. At present, C. caroliniana covers an area of approximately 1531×104 km2 of appropriate habitat, especially in the south-eastern parts of South, central and North America, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and most of Europe. The suitable regions are anticipated to expand under future climate scenarios; however, the dynamics of the changes vary between different extents of climate change. For example, C. caroliniana is expected to expand to higher latitudes, following global temperature increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, however, intolerance to temperature extremes may mediate invasion at higher latitudes under future extreme climate scenarios, e.g., SSP5-8.5. Owing to the severe impacts its invasion causes, early warning and stringent border quarantine processes are required to guard against the introduction of C. caroliniana especially in the invasion hotspots such as, Peru, Italy, and South Korea.

Considering climate change impact on the global potential geographical distribution of the invasive Argentine ant and little fire ant.

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) and the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata) are among the top 100 invasive alien species globally, causing significant ecological and economic harm. Therefore, it is crucial to study their potential geographic distribution worldwide. This study aimed to predict their global distribution under current and future climate conditions. We used distribution data from various sources, including CABI, GBIF, and PIAKey, and key climate variables selected from 19 environmental factors to model their potential geographic distribution using MaxEnt. The AUC values were 0.925 and 0.937 for L. humile and W. auropunctata, respectively, indicating good predictive performance. Suitable areas for L. humile were mainly in southern North America, northern South America, Europe, central Asia, southern Oceania, and parts of Africa, while W. auropunctata suitable areas were mostly in southern North America, most of South America, a small part of Europe, southern Asia, central Africa, and some parts of Oceania. Under climate change scenario, suitable areas for L. humile increased, while highly suitable areas for W. auropunctata decreased. The top four countries with the largest areas of overlapping suitable habitat under current climate were Brazil, China, Australia, and Argentina, while under future SSP585 climate scenario, the top four countries were Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Argentina. Some countries, such as Estonia and Finland, will see an overlapping adaptation area under climate change. In conclusion, this study provides insight into controlling the spread and harm of L. humile and W. auropunctata.

Potential historically intertropical stable areas during the Late Quaternary of South America

AbstractSouth America is a pivotal paleontological setting for Late Quaternary megafaunal research. Nonetheless, its paleobiogeography and paleoecology, and the causes for the recent extinction of megafauna in the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene are not yet fully understood. This study aimed to investigate the potential geographical distribution and historically intertropical stable areas (HISAs) of South American megafauna. We generated maps using Paleo‐Species Distribution Models for 12 megafaunal taxa (11 herbivores and one carnivore) during interglacial and glacial periods in the Late Quaternary: 120 and 21 ka. Our models, together with isotopic data, show that the HSIAs occurred mainly in low‐altitude plains (<1000 m) and were superimposed on seasonal dry forest biomes. We propose the occurrence of two HSIAs: the West Intertropical Region and the Brazilian Intertropical Region, the latter being redefined. We suggest that the Brazilian Intertropical Region is much smaller than previously proposed, but was still a key zoogeographical region for megafauna in South America during the Late Pleistocene.

Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change.

Spodoptera exempta, known as the black armyworm, has been extensively documented as an invasive agricultural pest prevalent across various crop planting regions globally. However, the potential geographical distribution and the threat it poses to host crops of remains unknown at present. Therefore, we used an optimized MaxEnt model based on 841 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables to predict the potential suitable areas of S. exempta under current and future climatic conditions, and the overlap with wheat, rice, and maize planting areas was assessed. The optimized model was highly reliable in predicting potential suitable areas for this pest. The results showed that high-risk distribution areas for S. exempta were mainly in developing countries, including Latin America, central South America, central Africa, and southern Asia. Moreover, for the three major global food crops, S. exempta posed the greatest risk to maize planting areas (510.78 × 104 km2), followed by rice and wheat planting areas. Under future climate scenarios, global warming will limit the distribution of S. exempta. Overall, S. exempta had the strongest effect on global maize production areas and the least on global wheat planting areas. Our study offers a scientific basis for global prevention of S. exempta and protection of agricultural crops.

Forecast of Current and Future Distributions of Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) under Climate Change in China

Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) emerged as an invasive pest in China around 2010, posing a significant threat to plants within the Asteraceae family. Employing the MaxEnt model, this study endeavors to anticipate the potential geographic distribution of Corythucha marmorata amid present and forthcoming climatic conditions, utilizing a dataset of 60 distributional occurrences alongside environmental parameters. The results revealed that presently, suitable regions span from 18–47° N to 103–128° E, with pronounced suitability concentrated notably in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Sichuan. Projections suggested a general expansion of suitable habitats, albeit with exceptions noted in SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios in the 2050s and SSP5–8.5 in the 2070s. The potential suitability of areas for Corythucha marmorata was influenced by major factors such as precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (bio10), mean temperature in the wettest quarter (bio8), and annual precipitation (bio12). Notably, temperature and precipitation emerge as primary determinants affecting both current and future ranges. In comparison with the current distributional area, there was a trend towards increasing the potentially suitable areas in the future. Moreover, there was a greater risk of spreading to the north of China in the future. This study serves as a pivotal resource for guiding future endeavors in monitoring, early detection, and preventative management strategies targeting Corythucha marmorata.

Potential current and future distribution for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Colombia: important disease vectors

Invasive mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti (African) and Aedes albopictus (Asian), serve as global vectors for diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, and they are currently present in Colombia. Consequently, the aim of this study was to assess the potential geographic distribution of these A. aegypti and A. albopictus vectors under both present and future environmental conditions in Colombia. To achieve this, a dataset was compiled using global records for each species, with those from Colombia being used for model validation. These records, in conjunction with layers of bioclimatic variables, were incorporated into ecological niche models. Predictions of potential distribution were made with the Maxent algorithm, using the Wallace EcoMod application for current conditions and the Java MaxEnt software for future projections, which represented three climate change scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for two time periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100). Additionally, niche overlap was calculated, and the suitable habitat range and population at risk in Colombia were quantified for current predictions. It is suggested that both species share ideal areas in the country with an overlap of 0.85, covering over 70% of the country's territory and reaching altitudes higher than 2,500 m, potentially affecting at least 45% of the population. In the future for both species it is estimated that, with increasing temperatures, the potential distribution could decrease, but they could invade areas with altitudes above 3,500 m (colder). It is concluded that, currently, A. aegypti and A. albopictus could have similar geographic distribution in Colombia and that, in the following years, climate change could lead to latitudinal and altitudinal variations in the distribution areas of these vectors.

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios

Predicting the global potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus using an ecological niche model: expansion trend and the main driving factors.

Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner&Buhrer) Nickle is a global quarantine pest that causes devastating mortality in pine species. The rapid and uncontrollable parasitic spread of this organism results in substantial economic losses to pine forests annually. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and GIS software ArcGIS10.8 to predict the distribution of B. xylophilus based on collected distribution points and 19 environmental variables (with a correlation coefficient of|R| > 0.8) for the contemporary period (1970-2000), 2041-2060 (2050s), 2061-2080 (2070s), and 2081-2100 (2090s) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the key environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of B. xylophilus and suitable distribution areas. Our results indicate that in current prediction maps B. xylophilus had potential suitable habitats in all continents except Antarctica, with East Asia being the region with the most highly suitable areas and the most serious epidemic area currently. Precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were identified as key environmental variables that determine the distribution of B. xylophilus. Under future climatic conditions, the potential geographic distribution of B. xylophilus will expand relative to current conditions. In particular, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2081-2100, suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes, and there will be significant changes in suitable areas in Europe, East Asia, and North America. These findings are crucial for future prevention and control management and monitoring.

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change.

Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

Current potential geographic distribution of an extremely rare and threatened orchid bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) from eastern Brazil, including a new geographic record

Current potential geographic distribution of an extremely rare and threatened orchid bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) from eastern Brazil, including a new geographic record

Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia.

Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041-2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional-to-national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2

Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is crucial for developing effective early warning measures and facilitating long-term monitoring. In this study, we screened various species distribution models (SDMs), including CTA, GBM, GAM, RF, and XGBOOST, to construct an ensemble model (EM) and then predict suitable habitats for P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85). The EM (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.96) yielded predictions that were more precise than those from the individual models. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (Bio18) are the most significant environmental variables affecting the PGDs of P. canaliculata. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats for P. canaliculata are primarily located south of the Yangtze River, collectively accounting for 17.66% of the nation’s total area. Unsuitable habitats predominate in higher-latitude regions, collectively covering 66.79% of China’s total land area. In future climate scenarios, the total number of suitable habitats for P. canaliculata is projected to expand into higher latitude regions, especially under SSP3-70 and SSP5-85 climate conditions. The 4.1 °C contour of Bio1 and the 366 mm contour of Bio18 determine the northernmost geographical distribution of P. canaliculata. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of P. canaliculata expanding into higher latitudes.

Mapping an endangered living fossil's distribution, threats, and protection coverage

AbstractSpecies Distribution Models have emerged in recent decades as a powerful tool for biodiversity research, as they allow, for example, assessing the status of species in their whole distributions. These models have been particularly helpful in demonstrating that amphibian populations are at high risk, with many declining and others already extinct. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of the helmeted water toad (Calyptocephalella gayi), an endemic Chilean amphibian considered a living fossil and cataloged as vulnerable, which requires significant conservation efforts. We modeled the species' potential distribution using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) approach and determined the overlap with national protected areas. In addition, we conducted a geospatial risk analysis to estimate the threat level to which this toad is being subjected. The potential distribution of C. gayi ranges from 28°S to 44°S, mainly explained by altitude, mean diurnal temperature range, slope, and distance to water bodies. Protected areas only cover 3.55% of the species' potential geographic distribution, which is of concern, considering that the geospatial risk analysis showed that 60.61% of C. gayi's distribution is subjected to extreme and high risks. We discuss how these results are relevant to focusing and directing efficient protection and conservation efforts for this species shortly.