Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution of Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. in China Based on Future Climate Change Using the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Abstract

Liriodendron chinense (Hemsl.) Sarg. (Magnoliales: Magnoliaceae), valued for its medicinal properties and timber and as an ornamental plant, is now classified as an endangered species. Investigating how future climate-change scenarios might affect the potential geographic distribution of L. chinense will provide a crucial scientific basis for its protection and management strategies. The MaxEnt model was calibrated using the ENMeval optimization package, and then it was coupled with ArcGIS 10.8 to forecast the possible distribution areas of L. chinense in China, utilizing elevation data, bioclimatic factors, and human footprint as environmental variables. The results indicate: (1) The optimal model parameters were set as follows: FC = LQ, RM = 0.5, the MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy and minimal overfitting; (2) The total suitable habitat area for the potential geographical distribution of L. chinense during the current period is estimated at 151.55 × 104 km2, predominantly located in central, eastern, and southwestern regions of China; (3) The minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), elevation (alt), and human footprint (hf) are the main environmental variables determining the suitable habitat distribution of L. chinense; (4) During the period from 2041 to 2060, under the carbon emission scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370, the suitable habitat for L. chinense shows varying degrees of increase compared to the current period. However, under the highest concentration scenario of SSP585, the suitable habitat area decreases to some extent; (5) The distribution of L. chinense is likely to move towards higher latitudes and elevations in the future due to changes in the climate. This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on L. chinense, offering valuable information for its protection and management under future climatic conditions.