Potential Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia.

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Shifts in grasses diversity patterns between two contrasting 40‐year climate periods in tropical dry islands

AbstractGrasses are one of the most successful and dispersed plant families worldwide and their environmental and economic values are widely acknowledged. They dominate the landscape of Cabo Verde, the southernmost and driest archipelago of Macaronesia, and are relevant natural resources for local populations, but a comprehensive evaluation of their distribution patterns is still lacking. In this study, we aim to evaluate the potential effects of climate change using the long‐term data concerning grass distribution in Cabo Verde and the widely recognized climatic variability of this archipelago, which entails a huge irregularity in spatial and temporal rainfall. We identified two contrasting climatic periods (wet, from 1929 to 1968, and dry, from 1969 to 2007) and gathered all the information available from the bibliography, herbaria, and fieldwork concerning spontaneous grass species recorded in Cabo Verde during those two periods, which amounted to 107 taxa. This information was then used to disclose the patterns of grass diversity as related to climatic and topographic variables (altitude and windward vs. leeward aspects). Different altitudinal shifts in the distribution patterns of grass species assemblages and an assemblage specific to the wet period were revealed by comparing the two climatic periods. The role of exposure in delimiting the altitudinal distribution of the various assemblages was highlighted; the trade winds clearly determine the distribution of grass assemblages. We detected shifts in the distribution of grass assemblages according to the climatic periods (related to the macroclimate) and local topographic factors (associated with mesoclimates). Also, functional traits (i.e., annuals vs. perennials, C3 vs. C4 grasses, and tropical vs. temperate species) were found to vary between wet and dry periods, as well as with altitude and with slope aspect. Understanding species distributions and the role of the climatic variability of Cabo Verde is crucial to predicting how climate change will affect them and thus to support effective management and conservation actions.

Bespoke climate indicators for the Swedish energy sector − a stakeholder focused approach

Climate change concerns the energy sector to a high degree because the sector is sensitive both to changing conditions for power and heat production, and to changing demand for electricity, heating and cooling. In this study potential consequences of climate change on different parts of the Swedish energy sector were assessed in a series of workshops, where climate and energy scientists, energy systems experts and analysts met with representatives of the energy sector to assess the vulnerability of the sector and consider what climate indicators could be used to assess impacts of relevance.The impact of climate change depends on the energy type. Hydropower, for which production is naturally linked to weather and climate, is significantly impacted by climate change. For other forms of production, such as nuclear power, other factors such as e.g. policy and technology development are more important. The series of workshops held in this study, where different aspects of climate change and consequences were discussed, proved very successful and has increased our understanding of climate impacts on the energy system.

A CMIP6 multi-model based analysis of potential climate change effects on watershed runoff using SWAT model: A case study of kunhar river basin, Pakistan

The hydrological regimes of watersheds might be drastically altered by climate change, a majority of Pakistan's watersheds are experiencing problems with water quality and quantity as a result precipitation changes and temperature, necessitating evaluation and alterations to management strategies. In this study, the regional water security in northern Pakistan is examined about anthropogenic climate change on runoff in the Kunhar River Basin (KRB), a typical river in northern Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) and flow durarion curve (FDC). Nine general circulation models (GCMs) were successfully utilized following bias correction under two latest IPCC shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. Correlation coefficients (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and the Percent Bias (PBIAS) are all above 0.75. The conclusions demonstrate that the SWAT model precisely simulates the runoff process in the KRB on monthly and daily timescales. For the two emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the mean annual precipitation is predicted to rise by 3.08 % and 5.86 %, respectively, compared to the 1980–2015 baseline. The forecasted rise in mean daily high temperatures is expected to range from 2.08 °C to 3.07 °C, while the anticipated increase in mean daily low temperatures is projected to fall within the range of 2.09 °C–3.39 °C, spanning the years 2020–2099. Under the two SSPs scenarios, annual runoff is estimated to increase by 5.47 % and 7.60 % due to climate change during the same period. Future socioeconomic growth will be supported by a sufficient water supply made possible by the rise in runoff. However, because of climate change, there is a greater possibility of flooding because of increases in both rainfall and runoff. As a result, flood control and development plans for KRB must consider the climate change's possible effects. There is a chance that the peak flow will move backwards relative to the baseline.

Modelling the effects of potential climate change on the dynamics of multi-species mountain pastures: A case study in Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy

CONTEXTPasture dynamics of Alpine areas are linked to the complex cryospheric hydrology of Alpine catchment and to the interspecies competition, which are in turn expected to change remarkably under prospective global warming scenarios. OBJECTIVEThis study aimed at assessing the impact of climate change on the productivity of mountain pastures in the Gran Paradiso National Park (Italy). METHODSThe hydrological model Poli-Hydro was used, coupled with the Poli-Pasture model, able to simulate pasture growth, which was further integrated with CoSMo model to consider interspecific competition. Two (competing) species were chosen for low altitude LowAlt areas (below 1800 m asl), Trifolium alpinum and Dactylis glomerata, and two for high altitude HighAlt areas (above 1800 m asl), Festuca rubra and Nardus stricta. Model tuning and evaluation were performed against estimates of leaf area index (LAI), derived from satellite imagery during 2005–2019. Then, climate change impacts were projected until 2100 by considering four IPCC AR6 scenarios and six GCMs. Target variables included a set of agroclimatic indices, LAI and pasture yield. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSDue to the projected increase in temperatures during the XXI century, a measurable potential increase in productivity would be expected, especially in the highest areas (up to +97% by 2050, and + 123% by 2100 for the SSP5–8.5 scenario). The relative abundance of pasture species appears to remain mostly stable; at most, the species with higher fodder value even increases slightly. This suggests that a loss in the overall quality of biomass should not occur. These results provide preliminary evidence for the potential development of livestock farming, and thus of a relevant part of the economy in the valleys, at higher altitudes than now. However, to a certain extent pasture performance could be threatened by the projected reduction in summer rainfall, and possibly spreading of pests with increasing temperature. SIGNIFICANCEThe results obtained here could be useful for policy makers, and scientists in the field of pasture/grasslands management, to depict scenarios of future productivity, and to support redefinition of periods, and areas designated for grazing activities in the mountains.

What if there is no further south to go: Assessing the vulnerability of Nacella species to climate change

In the current context of climate change, southern South America and the Southern Ocean are undergoing profound environmental transformations that impose challenges to marine species. Shifts in species distribution ranges will occur through expansions or contractions of the range edges. Invertebrates such as Nacella spp., that being template-cold water species, will be more vulnerable to increasing temperature and will therefore suffer range contraction as temperatures increase southward. To understand the future of this sensitive group of gastropods, the potential impact of future climate on the distribution ranges of six species of the genus Nacella was studied using ensemble ecological niche models and representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that all the species studied will undergo a shift in their distribution in response to the projected changes in climate with a decline in habitat suitability. Particularly, the species will lose suitable areas mainly in the northern edge of their current distribution. Nevertheless, the species may not change their distribution equally. Our study suggests that N. magellanica, N. clypeater, and N. concinna appear to exhibit vulnerability, albeit with potentially lesser impact. Nacella magellanica is the limpet that shows the least distribution change in 2100. Both species, N. clypeater and N. concinna, will move southward while the Antarctic species will expand their distribution to other Antarctic areas. The most significant impact is expected for three Magellanic species (N. deaurata, N. flammea, and N. mytilina), currently distributed across the southern tip of South America. With restricted geographical ranges, these species face increased vulnerability to habitat loss as they cannot migrate southward. This comprehensive analysis offers invaluable insights into how Nacella species could tackle the challenges of climate change. The emphasis on specific species' vulnerabilities and the differential impacts on their distribution enhances our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change in the studied region. Furthermore, it will aid in formulating effective conservation and management strategies to protect Antarctic and sub-Antarctic ecosystems.

Climate change and the future of medicinal plants research

Due to their pharmaceutical properties and secondary metabolites, medicinal plants have played a crucial role in alleviating human suffering from various illnesses, disorders, and diseases. Along with other natural and artificial disasters, rapid climate change is one of the critical causes of the decline in wild medicinal plant species. Therefore, considering their significance in traditional medicine practices and economic value, investigating the potential consequences of climate change on medicinal plants is specifically relevant. This review aimed to investigate the diversity of species of medicinal plants within current climate scenarios. Additionally, it assesses the potential implications of climate change on the projected distribution of these species in subsequent scenarios and evaluates the possible impacts of these changes on the trajectory of future research in medicinal plants. The distribution and life cycles of all vegetation, including medicinal plants, are significantly impacted by climate change. Additionally, future climate scenarios have been shown to affect the physiological performance of all vegetation worldwide. Various aspects related to climate change and its repercussions on medicinal plants are explored including the impact of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) levels, the effect of low temperature (Cold), climate warming, drought on the production of secondary metabolites, impact of threats on medicinal plants, and phenological changes. Each of these environmental factors influences the productivity and quality of different products and components of medicinal plants, either positively or negatively. Consequently, there is excellent complexity surrounding how climate change affects medicinal plants. Thus, for human survival on Earth, future researchers should carefully examine the interactions of various direct and indirect causes and their corresponding effects. Keywords: Secondary metabolites, Climate change, medicinal plants, Phenology.

Agro-climatic zone-wise drought hazards in Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios

This study performed the spatio-temporal analysis of drought hazards across the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios. The India Meteorological Department’s high-resolution gridded data for1989-2019 was used for historical drought occurrence analysis. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment ensemble data of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for analysing future drought hazards in the near (2031-2060) and end term (2061-2099) periods. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) was used to calculate the frequency of droughts at different accumulation periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Subsequently, the ACZ-wise drought hazard index (DHI) was calculated and mapped geospatially using ArcGIS. The results indicated that moderate drought events have the highest frequencies of occurrence, followed by severe and extreme drought events for all accumulation periods. During 1989-2019, 54.8%, 28.3% and 16.7% of droughts were moderate, severe, and extreme, respectively. An increase of 2.6% and 2.4% in the frequency of moderate droughts is projected under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the end term. Under both historical and future climate scenarios, a high frequency of extreme droughts was observed in the long accumulation periods (SPI-9 and SPI-12), whereas the frequency of moderate droughts was observed to be high in the short accumulation periods (SPI-1 and SPI-3). Under the historical scenario, the frequency of droughts in the extreme category was high in the southern transition, central dry, and north eastern dry zones, severe category in the northern dry, southern transition, and coastal zones, and moderate category in the north transition, hill, and southern dry zones. Among the 30 districts of Karnataka, Chitradurga, Udupi, Tumakuru, Ballari, Koppala, Raichuruand Gadaga districts have very high DHI. This study sheds light on the potential consequences of climate change on drought scenarios in the Karnataka state’s agro-climate zones and urges for zone specific drought adaptation and mitigation strategies to strengthen the State resilience.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Analysis of climate change impacts on the biogeographical patterns of species-specific productivity of socioeconomically important edible fungi in Mediterranean forest ecosystems

In Mediterranean forests, many species of fungi produce fruiting bodies every autumn, some of which are of great social and economic interest as NTFPs. In addition, these fungi are an essential part of the biodiversity network that ensures the proper functioning of natural ecosystems and that is currently in check due to global change. Therefore, understanding the biogeographic patterns of species-specific fungal productivity is fundamental to anticipate possible changes in the socioeconomic value of our forests and to understand the role they play in the functioning of ecosystems in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this study we estimate the future impact of climate change (in Catalonia region, between 2023 and 2100) on five fungal species with high socioeconomic interest in a broad bioclimatic gradient representative of the Mediterranean basin using high resolution at the landscape scale. To achieve this, we use predictive models based on machine learning algorithms and a fungal database resulting from the sampling of more than 100 permanent sampling plots over 20 years. We estimate that current and future productivity patterns differ among species, under different climate change scenarios and bioclimatic regions. Our results suggest that optimal productivity areas may be shifted to higher elevations, making those species with higher productivity at higher elevations the most affected by climate change. This would mean that some species with high socioeconomic value, such as Lactarius deliciosus and Boletus edulis, could be negatively affected in their total productivity in the study area. This study highlights the need to anticipate the potential effects of climate change on fungal productivity and in particular on high socioeconomic value species and to develop management policies oriented to maintain the important role of fungi in natural ecosystems.

Space–Time Characterization of Extreme Precipitation Indices for the Semiarid Region of Brazil

Various indices of climate variability and extremes are extensively employed to characterize potential effects of climate change. Particularly, the semiarid region of Brazil is influenced by adverse effects of these changes, especially in terms of precipitation. In this context, the main objective of the present study was to characterize the regional trends of extreme precipitation indices in the semiarid region of Brazil (SAB), using daily precipitation data from the IMERG V06 product, spanning the period from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2020. Twelve extreme precipitation indices were considered, which were estimated annually, and their spatial and temporal trends were subsequently analyzed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope. The analysis revealed that the peripheral areas of the SAB, especially in the northwest and extreme south regions, exhibited higher intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events compared to the central portion of the area. However, a negative trend in event intensity was noted in the north, while positive trends were identified in the south. The frequency of extreme events showed a predominance of negative trends across most of the region, with an increase in consecutive dry days particularly throughout the western SAB. The average total precipitation index was above 1000 mm in the north of the SAB, whereas in the central region, the precipitation averages were predominantly below 600 mm, with rainfall intensity values ranging between 6 and 10 mm/day. Over the span of 20 years, the region underwent an average of 40 consecutive dry days in certain localities. A negative trend was observed in most of the indices, indicating a reduction in precipitation intensity in future decades, with variations in some indices. The dry years observed towards the end of the analyzed period likely contributed to the observed negative trends in the majority of extreme precipitation indices. Such trends directly impact the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events in the SAB. The study is important for highlighting and considering the impacts of changes in precipitation extremes in the semiarid region of Brazil. Based on the obtained results, we advocate the implementation of public policies to address future challenges, such as incorporating adaptations in water resource management, sustainable agricultural practices, and planning for urban and rural areas.

The hidden threat of heavy metal leaching in urban runoff: Investigating the long-term consequences of land use changes on human health risk exposure

This study evaluated the potential effects of long-term land use and climate change on the quality of surface runoff and the health risks associated with it. The land use change projection 2030 was derived from the main changes in land use from 2009 to 2019, and rainfall data was obtained from the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. The Long-Term Hydrological Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model was then utilized to calculate the rate of runoff heavy metal (HM) pollutant loading from the urban catchment. It was found that areas with heavy development posed a significantly greater public health risk associated with runoff, with higher risks observed in high-development and traffic areas compared to industrial, residential, and commercial areas. Additionally, exposure to Lead (Pb), Mercury (Hg), and Arsenic (As) was found to contribute significantly to overall non-carcinogenic health risks for possible consumers of runoff. Carcinogenic risk values of As, Cadmium (Cd), and Pb were also observed to increase, particularly in high-development and traffic areas, by 2030. This investigation offers important insight into the health risks posed by metals present in surface runoff in urban catchment areas under different land use and climate change scenarios.

Seasonal Variations in the Toughness of Leaves: A Case Study Using Griselinia littoralis.

Potential effects of climate change include greater extremes of temperature and increased severity of storms. Many plants have evolved to resist the challenges of winter (freezing, dehydration, and wind) in a process known as cold hardening. Sensing reducing temperatures, they make structural changes at the cellular level to increase their mechanical resistance and prevent damage. Previous work on this topic, though extensive, has been conducted under laboratory conditions rather than in the field, and while many workers have observed changes to cell wall thickness and composition, which imply increased mechanical strength, few have actually measured strength or any other parameter describing structural integrity. This paper describes experiments on a model system designed to measure the structural integrity of leaf laminae from plants growing naturally in the field over extended periods, allowing seasonal variations to be captured. Standard engineering properties-tensile strength and fracture toughness-were measured for leaves of Griselinia littoralis on 19 separate occasions over a 12-month period. Toughness (rather than strength) was found to be the controlling mechanical property. Toughness values were found to change significantly during the year, by more than a factor of 2. Toughness correlated strongly with average daily soil temperature, but with a lag of about 1-2 weeks, suggesting that this is the time needed for structural adjustments to take place. Highest toughness values occurred in winter, confirming cold hardening. Increasing temperature in the spring was associated with decreasing toughness, but in the summer, when highest temperatures occurred, toughness increased again. This apparent "hot hardening" may be a response to dehydration. Results imply that a given leaf is able to both increase and decrease its toughness in response to temperature changes, demonstrating excellent plasticity of response. This case study of a single species establishes a method of reliably measuring changes in a plant's structural integrity due to cold hardening and other seasonal variations, which may be used to investigate the effects of climate change and other variables.

How will climate change affect the underwater sound environment? Modelling the potential effects of climate change on the oceanic speed of sound

The purpose of this study is to create a year-by-year prediction model for surface-level oceanic speed of sound in different future climate scenarios and discuss how these results may be relevant for current and future work in underwater acoustics. It is already understood that sound propagation and speed in the oceans will be affected by future changes of oceanic pressure, temperature, salinity, and acidity. Certain trends of future sound speed have been analyzed in precedent studies; however, there are some information gaps and the availability of future oceanic sound speed models for use by the acoustical industry is lacking. This study intends to fill in some of these gaps and initiate an interdisciplinary discussion between both research and industry professionals in the field of acoustics.

The Direct Effects of Climate Change on Tench (Tinca tinca) Sperm Quality under a Real Heatwave Event Scenario.

Global aquaculture growth will most probably face specific conditions derived from climate change. In fact, the most severe impacts of these changes will be suffered by aquatic populations in restrictive circumstances, such as current aquaculture locations, which represent a perfect model to study global warming effects. Although the impact of temperature on fish reproduction has been characterized in many aspects, this study was focused on recreating more realistic models of global warming, particularly considering heatwave phenomena, in order to decipher its effects on male gametes (spermatozoa). For this purpose, thermal stress via a heatwave simulation (mimicking a natural occurring heatwave, from 24 to 30 °C) was induced in adult tench (Tinca tinca) males and compared with a control group (55.02 ± 16.44 g of average body wet weight). The impact of the thermal stress induced by this climate change event was assessed using cellular and molecular approaches. After the heatwave recreation, a multiparametric analysis of sperm quality, including some traditional parameters (such as sperm motility) and new ones (focus on redox balance and sperm quality biomarkers), was performed. Although sperm concentration and the volume produced were not affected, the results showed a significant deleterious effect on motility parameters (e.g., reduced progressive motility and total motility during the first minute post-activation). Furthermore, the sperm produced under the thermal stress induced by this heatwave simulation exhibited an increased ROS content in spermatic cells, confirming the negative effect that this thermal stress model (heatwave recreation) might have had on sperm quality. More importantly, the expression of some known sperm quality and fertilization markers was decreased in males exposed to thermal stress. This present study not only unveils the potential effects of climate change in contemporary and future fish farming populations (and their underlying mechanisms) but also provides insights on how to mitigate and/or avoid thermal stress due to heatwave events.

Environmental factors influencing red knot (Calidris canutus islandica) departure times of relocation flights within the non-breeding period.

Deciding when to depart on long-distance, sometimes global, movements can be especially important for flying species. Adverse weather conditions can affect energetic flight costs and navigational ability. While departure timings and conditions have been well-studied for migratory flights to and from the breeding range, few studies have focussed on flights within the non-breeding season. Yet in some cases, overwintering ranges can be large enough that ecological barriers, and a lack of resting sites en route, may resist movement, especially in unfavorable environmental conditions. Understanding the conditions that will enable or prohibit flights within an overwintering range is particularly relevant in light of climate change, whereby increases in extreme weather events may reduce the connectivity of sites. We tracked 495 (n = 251 in 2019; n = 244 in 2020) overwintering red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) in the Dutch Wadden Sea and investigated how many departed towards the UK (on westward relocation flights), which requires flying over the North Sea. For those that departed, we used a resource selection model to determine the effect of environmental conditions on the timing of relocation flights. Specifically, we investigated the effects of wind, rain, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, and migratory timing relative to sunset and tidal cycle, which have all been shown to be crucial to migratory departure conditions. Approximately 37% (2019) and 36% (2020) of tagged red knots departed on westward relocation flights, indicating differences between individuals' space use within the overwintering range. Red knots selected for departures between 1 and 2.5 h after sunset, approximately 4 h before high tide, with tailwinds and little cloud cover. However, rainfall and changes in atmospheric pressure appear unimportant. Our study reveals environmental conditions that are important for relocation flights across an ecological barrier, indicating potential consequences of climate change on connectivity.

A 2,000‐Year Record of Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) Colonization Shows Substantial Gains in Blue Carbon Storage and Nutrient Retention

AbstractAssessing historical environmental conditions linked to habitat colonization is important for understanding long‐term resilience and improving conservation and restoration efforts. Such information is lacking for the seagrass Zostera marina, an important foundation species across cold‐temperate coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we reconstructed environmental conditions during the last 14,000 years from sediment cores in two eelgrass (Z. marina) meadows along the Swedish west coast, with the main aims to identify the time frame of seagrass colonization and describe subsequent biogeochemical changes following establishment. Based on vegetation proxies (lipid biomarkers), eelgrass colonization occurred about 2,000 years ago after geomorphological changes that resulted in a shallow, sheltered environment favoring seagrass growth. Seagrass establishment led to up to 20‐ and 24‐fold increases in sedimentary carbon and nitrogen accumulation rates, respectively. This demonstrates the capacity of seagrasses as efficient ecosystem engineers and their role in global change mitigation and adaptation through CO2 removal, and nutrient and sediment retention. By combining regional climate projections and landscape models, we assessed potential climate change effects on seagrass growth, productivity and distribution until 2100. These predictions showed that seagrass meadows are mostly at risk from increased sedimentation and hydrodynamic changes, while the impact from sea level rise alone might be of less importance in the studied area. This study showcases the positive feedback between seagrass colonization and environmental conditions, which holds promise for successful conservation and restoration efforts aimed at supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation, and the provision of several other crucial ecosystem services.

Estimating Climate Change’s Impacts on the Recharge of an Ungauged Tropical Aquifer (Togolese Coastal Sedimentary Basin)

The aquifers of the Togolese coastal sedimentary basin are the principal sources of water for almost half of the country’s population. These aquifers’ features have not been adequately monitored and studied. The resource is threatened by human activities, notably agriculture, industry, and withdrawals for drinking water supplies. This situation is exacerbated by the potential effects of climate change. For this research, a basin-scale study was conducted to estimate current groundwater recharge and its future evolution in response to climate change. A recharge model based on Thornthwaite–Mather balance equations using runoff coefficients characterizing land use was fed with current and future climate data from an optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.4). Despite the associated uncertainties, the soil–water balance model at monthly time steps predicts a recharge of 3 to 455 mm per year from 2020 to 2039, and 40 to 420 mm per year from 2040 to 2059 under the optimistic RCP 4.5 scenario. According to the pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario, the recharge will range between 16 and 515 mm per year from 2020 to 2049 and from 1 to 467 mm per year between 2040 and 2059. As a result, the basin’s groundwater recharge range, which is currently 47 to 225 mm, will significantly increase. This study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable management of groundwater in the Togolese coastal sedimentary basin. The recharge of the groundwater in the basin will increase regardless of the climate scenario and will support future development in the Togolese coastal sedimentary basin.

Climate change effects on rainfall extreme value distribution: the role of skewness

Quantifying the potential effects of Climate Change (CC) on hydrological scales is a topic with a more and more increasing interest for the scientific community, given the CC impact on agriculture, industry, economy, human health, ecosystems, among the others. In this context, the paper focuses on the sub-daily Annual Maxima (AM) of rainfall height time series, and specifically on the crucial role played by initial skewness, i.e. the skewness of the observed rainfall series used to evaluate potential parametric trends. Here a quick and user-friendly methodology is proposed, that is aimed at quantifying plausible future changes in terms of probability distributions assumed at rain gauge scale, from projections of any climatic model. In detail, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Two-Component Extreme Value (TCEV) distributions are adopted as probability functions suitable for modelling observed rainfall AM series, which could increase their frequency and magnitude into future horizons under CC. EURO-CORDEX projections for Europe are considered, under the hypothesis that the values of the change factor, i.e. the ratio between the values of a specific quantile at two specific time horizons, are invariant when moving from an areally-averaged scale (typical for any climate model) to a point rain gauge scale, which induces that future changes are provided (in terms of frequency and magnitude of extreme events) without the need of any spatial downscaling from the assumed projections. The proposed methodology can contribute to hazard quantification associated to potential climate changes, and thus it can play a crucial role in the assessment of hydraulic structures resilience; the obtained results, specific for the study area of Italy, but easily extendable on a global scale, showed that larger increases in frequency of future heavy events are expected for time series with “EV1 alike” values of initial skewness.

Climate anxiety, environmental attitude, and job engagement among nursing university colleagues: a multicenter descriptive study

BackgroundClimate change, a pervasive global phenomenon, exerts discernible impacts on the physical, social, and psychological dimensions of well-being. The apprehension surrounding this complex environmental issue has reached a critical juncture, with over 76,000 individuals across more than thirty nations expressing profound levels of concern, characterizing their anxiety as either "very" or "extremely" pronounced. This surge in awareness regarding the potential consequences of climate change has given rise to an emergent and escalating challenge known as climate anxiety. This distinctive form of anxiety manifests through profound feelings of fear, helplessness, and despair elicited by the impending repercussions of climate change. Notably, the intersection of climate anxiety with occupational domains, particularly within the context of Nursing University Colleagues, suggests a nuanced relationship with job engagement, wherein the psychological responses to climate change may influence professional commitment and involvement.Aim of the studyTo examine the correlation among Climate Anxiety, Environmental Attitude, and Job Engagement among Nursing University Colleagues comprising eight distinct nursing faculties.DesignA multicenter descriptive, cross-sectional research design study followed.SubjectThree hundred fifty-nine participants from the Centre, Delta, West, Suez Canal, and Upper regions of Egypt using a stratified random cluster sampling technique.MeasurementsSocial and health related to climate data structured questionnaire, climate anxiety scale, environmental attitude inventory, and job engagement scale.ResultsThe influence of demographics on climate anxiety, environmental attitude, and job involvement was not observed. Nevertheless, geographical variations emerged as a noteworthy factor. A statistically significant inverse correlation was identified between climate anxiety, job engagement dimensions, and the overall score of environmental attitudes.ConclusionClimate anxiety was strongly associated with environmental attitudes and job engagement among nursing university colleagues. Higher climate anxiety is associated with a lower attitude towards the environment and decreased job engagement. Additionally, a higher attitude towards the environment is associated with decreased overall engagement in participants’ jobs.ImplicationsThe study's patterns make it clear how important it is to provide targeted psycho-educational interventions to help reduce climate anxiety among the group of nursing university colleagues. The imperative lies not only in alleviating the immediate psychological distress associated with heightened climate anxiety but also in fostering adaptive coping mechanisms. By doing so, these interventions serve as instrumental tools in nurturing resilience, thereby fortifying the mental well-being of nursing professionals amidst the evolving landscape of climate-related concerns.