The hidden threat of heavy metal leaching in urban runoff: Investigating the long-term consequences of land use changes on human health risk exposure

Abstract

This study evaluated the potential effects of long-term land use and climate change on the quality of surface runoff and the health risks associated with it. The land use change projection 2030 was derived from the main changes in land use from 2009 to 2019, and rainfall data was obtained from the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. The Long-Term Hydrological Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model was then utilized to calculate the rate of runoff heavy metal (HM) pollutant loading from the urban catchment. It was found that areas with heavy development posed a significantly greater public health risk associated with runoff, with higher risks observed in high-development and traffic areas compared to industrial, residential, and commercial areas. Additionally, exposure to Lead (Pb), Mercury (Hg), and Arsenic (As) was found to contribute significantly to overall non-carcinogenic health risks for possible consumers of runoff. Carcinogenic risk values of As, Cadmium (Cd), and Pb were also observed to increase, particularly in high-development and traffic areas, by 2030. This investigation offers important insight into the health risks posed by metals present in surface runoff in urban catchment areas under different land use and climate change scenarios.