post-Cold War Period Research Articles

ETNİK ÇATIŞMA HAREKETLERİ: BOSNA- HERSEK VAKA ÇALIŞMASI

If the conflict occurs between two or more ethnic groups, it can be named ‘ethnic conflict’ due to political, social, economic, etc., which either includes violence or not. The issue of ‘ethnic conflict’ can be accepted as one of the special topics in international relations, and it should be discussed with experienced cases to provide research through social sciences. This study aims to contribute the studies of the ethnic conflict in international relations with the history and evaluation of dissolution of Yugoslavia, with the selected case of ‘Bosnia and Herzegovina’. This article examines the issue of 'ethnic conflict' and the historical background in the scope of International Relations. It investigates the ethnic conflict movements of Bosnia and Herzegovina's chosen region, since the Cold War years with appropriate International Relations theories. In this context, the issue was discussed within the historical background framework, together with the selected theories for the analysis and evaluation of the causes of ethnic conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the post-Cold War period on the psychosocial approach and evaluation of ethnic identity.

The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict

Mediation and peacekeeping are commonly used tools to manage conflict. To what extent are they complementary and effective instruments for ending violent conflicts? Generally, they are seen as distinct tools: mediation aims to facilitate negotiated settlements, while the goal of peacekeeping is to prevent agreements from collapsing. However, peacekeeping and mediation regularly occur simultaneously. Arguably, peacekeeping operations rely on continuing political processes, while peacekeepers create a context favorable for mediation and provide a valuable source of independent information. Using a variety of model specifications, including selection models, empirical evidence supports that (a) mediation rather than peacekeeping is key to halting hostilities, (b) mediation and peacekeeping are largely complementary, but (c) this complementarity is conditional: in the post-Cold War period, transformative peacekeeping boosted the effectiveness of mediation to halt civil wars. There is no evidence that peacekeeping on its own matters for ending conflict. Finally, counterfactual analysis shows the substantial impact of mediation and peacekeeping on the frequency of conflict.

Sanctions and Third-party Compliance with US Foreign Policy Preferences: An Analysis of Dual-use Trade

Ostensibly bilateral US foreign policy actions, such as sanctions, can influence third-party compliance with US policy preferences. US sanctions simultaneously signal US preferences and demonstrate leverage, which can motivate third parties to avoid or change proscribed behavior proactively. Empirical testing of this strategic behavior typically is difficult given that it predicts non-events in a noisy signaling environment. However, I argue that the global trade of dual-use commodities—those with both civilian and military purposes—is a phenomenon where we can observe this process systematically. I isolate US sanctions that provide relevant context both by stigmatizing the target and signaling that third-party dual-use exports to the target would directly undermine US policy goals. Using newly-coded bilateral data spanning the post-Cold War period, I find evidence that relevant US sanctions are associated with lower third-party dual-use exports to US-sanctioned states. My findings have implications for scholars and policy-makers, suggesting a broad yet shrouded ability of sanctions to advance US foreign policy goals.

Emotional warfare? Track two diplomacy and the emotionalisation of the Cold War

This article discusses a series of US citizen exchanges to the USSR that were termed track two, or citizen, diplomacy. The track two model was meant to address the freeze in high-level diplomatic engagements at a time of heightening tensions between rivals. Intriguingly, track two diplomacy was explicitly emotionalised – that is, linked to a psychologically informed approach to conflict resolution and contact. I focus on two sets of diplomatic delegations – those co-organised by the Esalen Institute and the Association for Humanistic Psychology, as well as grassroots citizen exchanges. Of particular interest is the famous visit by Carl Rogers to the USSR in 1986 where he held a set of workshops that were part of the AHP Soviet Exchange Project. I show the various central roles that discourses on emotions (psychological theories), emotional discourses (the expression of emotions) and emotion-evocation played in these US endeavours. What is particularly interesting to see is how, as the Cold War began to wane, the United States’ emotionalised exchanges became more unidirectional and interventionist in nature. I term this form of emotionalisation ‘emotional warfare’ and conclude that, as pedagogies, techniques and informal contacts, they should be read not only through the prism of friendly exchange, but also through those of geopolitical agonism, as well as the neoliberalisation of both empires in the post-Cold War period. In focusing on these exchanges in the 1980s, the article also makes a contribution to contemporary studies of emotion culture in the post-Soviet context by describing some of the prehistory of Russia’s ‘psychological turn’.

Democratic Peace in the post-Cold War Era

This study examines the continuation of democratic peace in the post-Cold War era. The democratic peace refers to the interstate phenomenon that democratic countries rarely fight each other. Other things being equal, the rate of conflict is lower for country pairs of democracy-democracy than those of autocracy-autocracy and democracy-autocracy. While the phenomenon itself is accepted, it is disputed whether the relationship between democracy and peace is causal or spurious. Skeptics argue that the democratic peace is an artifact of the Cold War bipolar politics. They expect that because cold war security interests, not democracy, produced the phenomenon, the democratic peace will soon disappear in the post-Cold War era. The binary time-series cross-sectional analysis of this study covers both politically relevant dyads and all dyads for the 1950-2010 period. It finds that beyond the Cold War period (1950-1989), the democratic peace continues to be statistically significant in the post-Cold War period (1990-2010).

Historical Institutionalism and the European Union’s post-Cold War Foreign Policy Development

This paper maintains that Historical Institutionalism – with its emphasis on such concepts as path dependency, time, continuity and change, critical junctures, and unintended consequences – serves as a valuable theoretical tool in explaining the why and how of the European Union developing from a strictly economic union during the first forty years of its existence towards a political union with a global foreign policy agenda in the post-Cold War period. Discussing the EU’s post-1989 foreign policy development and zooming in on the EU’s policy towards Eastern Europe to illustrate its argument, the paper argues that Brussels’ participation in global politics has for long been in the making. More specifically, four elements that have determined – and continue to do so – the EU’s foreign policy portfolio are first, the successful economic integration in the first forty years of the European Union’s existence; second, the logic of integration through institutionalization driving EU integration since 1952; third, the – at first – informal European Political Cooperation witnessing the emergence of tacit norms and rules of conducting foreign policy coordination; and fourth, the rhetoric commitment to the region of Central and Eastern Europe pre-1989.

The Challenge of Forging Consent to UN Mediation in Internationalized Civil Wars: The Case of Syria

Abstract This article analyzes how the internationalization of civil wars influences conflict parties’ consent to UN mediation processes. Illustrated by the UN mediation in Syria, I argue that internationalization influences consent directly by obstructing the advent of a costly stalemate and the parties’ perception of mediation as a ‘way out,’ and indirectly by reducing mediators’ leverage and perceived impartiality thereby limiting their tools to foster consent. The article makes three contributions. First, it presents a novel conceptual framework to understand the impact of internationalization on conflict parties’ consent. Second, it provides a long-term analysis of UN mediation in Syria from 2012–2020. Third, it contributes to a broader discussion about how civil wars end. This is of particular relevance as the prioritization of a political over a military end to civil wars, which was dominant in the early post-Cold War period, is no longer unquestioned.

Examining the Human Security Challenges Emanating from the Weaponisation of Women. A Case study of Boko Haram and the Islamic State 2001-2018

The post-cold war period has witnessed an evolution in the nature of conflict from the new wars of the 1990s to asymmetric conflicts involving the weaponisation of civilians. This has achieved the twin objective of operating within the ranks of the combatants (in the case of women) as wives and child-bearers of the fighters, and inflicting harm on adversaries through suicide attacks. The weaponisation of women in the case of the wars in Syria and Nigeria has therefore elicited both human security challenges for the communities being targeted, and for the weaponised women. The biggest dilemma facing states of origin has been whether to accept the weaponised women’s return and rehabilitate them or declare them stateless. There has been a clear tendency to securitise them, especially when internal political dynamics are factored in. This qualitative study uses a case study approach to delve into the human security challenges emanating from the weaponisation of women in the case of Boko Haram and the Islamic State between 2001 and 2018. The paper further relies on content analysis to delve deeper into the discourse on human security. Through the use of a human security conceptual framework and securitisation theory, the paper argues that although once weaponised, some women become human security threats to targeted communities, and also face human security challenges during and after the insurgency, there is a need to deal with the women on a case-by-case basis rather than pursuing a blanket policy of securitising them. States need to work with international organisations to action processes aimed at delivering justice, demobilisation, rehabilitation, and the reintegration of these women. This will uphold international law and respect for human rights.

Nepal: Internal and External Security Challenges

The post cold war period is marked by a new multi-dimensional strategic environment giving new focus to international relations and security of small states. Though the US is the only superpower, the world surely is moving towards multi-polarity and interdependence where regional powers and international systems have an increasingly powerful role. In such an environment small states are finding themselves even more vulnerable. The world dynamics is changing very quickly and with it security dimensions are also changing which brings security as well as insecurity to the smaller states like Nepal. The Nepali security dynamics cannot remain separate from the world changes and there are internal as well as external changes which are taking place in the country. More importantly with the recent dramatic changes and adaptation of a new constitution an optimistic political tendencies have emerged but with it the emerging internal crisis have emerged. This paper analyzes the new emerging security challenges Nepal is facing in the evolving new world order and at the same time suggests some authenticate credible and viable security options for it. It analyzes the special characteristics of Nepal and its vulnerability to both traditional and new forms of threats. The paper is divided into five sub-headings which include introduction, theoretical understanding, major security challenges, security options for Nepal and conclusion.

Social globalisation and quality of democracy: An analysis for old and young democracies

The literature on globalisation and democracy has primarily paid attention to economic integration and its effects on democracies. Systematic empirical evidence on the effects of social globalisation on democracy is absent. This article intends to fill this gap. Social globalisation is disaggregated into interpersonal, information and cultural globalisation. I apply the generalised method of moments estimation and analyse democracies encompassing the periods 1970–1991 and 1991–2017. The results indicate that the democratic qualities affected by social globalisation are freedom of expression, equal access and protection, and the quality of elections. The moderating effect of a given country’s democracy stock has been confirmed across different estimations. However, and especially during the post–Cold War period, younger and older democracies benefit equally from the increased spread of information caused by globalisation with regard to equal access. Equally, both categories experience similar challenges with the rise of interpersonal globalisation in terms of the quality of elections.

Discourse, medical metaphor and the East Asian medicine approach to conflict resolution

This article analyses how threats and dangers have been understood through biomedical metaphors in international relations (IR) and US security discourse, suggesting an alternative to such understandings based on an East Asian medicine (EAM) approach to world politics. By conducting a genealogical study of US security discourse, I argue that medical and disease metaphors, such as communism as a disease in the Cold War era and terrorism as a cancer in the post-Cold War period, were broadly utilised by US policymaking elites in the discursive formation of foreign and security policies. This delineated how the specific issues should be understood by ordinary people; it also suggested measures, such as containment, targeted killings, and surgical strikes, to tackle security threats. As real-world policy practices have demonstrated, the Westphalian understanding of security and conflict resolution, characterised by the utilisation of medical analogies and the necessity of coercive responses, may be inherently flawed. To address the security threats and maintain stability in a specific region, the EAM approach to world politics and conflict resolution is proposed, which is defined by non-coercive actions (wuwei); furthermore, transformability should be operated from within, and the yin–yang theory of harmonious relations could contribute to long-term peace.

To Engage or Not to Engage? Explaining the Logic of the US’s China Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era

The United States’ (US) changing policy towards China has become one of the most attractive issues in contemporary international politics. To explore the reasons underlying these changes, existing studies adopt four schools of explanation, i.e., status competition, institutional competition, failure of engagement, and domestic factors. Each school provides valuable theoretical insights. However, existing studies have obvious problems with single attribution and, thus, fail to formulate a causal mechanism explaining the long-term trajectory of the US’s China strategy. By recategorizing America’s unilateral perception of China as reformist, revolutionary, status quo and positionalist, which extends beyond the revisionist-status quo dichotomy, this article develops a systemic explanatory model and process tracing of the transition of US’s China policy during the post-Cold War period to explain the theoretical logic underlying the changes. This article argues that the positional change and the US’s unilateral perception of China are the two main factors triggering changes in the US’s China strategy. China’s foreign behavior, as the intervening variable, strengthens or weakens the government’s perception of China and, thus, determines the US’s strategic choices, i.e., whether to pursue a policy of containment, competition, precaution, congagement, engagement, or accommodation. Four comparative case studies are presented to demonstrate how this article’s explanatory model can be applied.

FOREIGN POLICY OF JAPAN

In post war era, Japan emerged as a pacifist country. The constitution of Japan restrained from developing armed forces for offensive but permitted only for defensive purpose. Thus, Japan raised Self Defense Force. This posture greatly contributed in its emergence as world economic power. In post-cold war period, Japan appeared with advanced step in its foreign policy and sent its forces abroad as a part of UN Peace Keeping Force abroad. It little questioned the objective of creating SDF. 9/11 incidents changed the global politics. Japanese citizens also fall prey to it. Japan joined coalition on War on Terror and helped to fight against terrorism. In post 9/11, Japan has improved its relations with China despite territorial dispute. However, it plays its role in global political, economic, cultural and strategic areas.

Settlement of the conflict in the Southeast of Ukraine: contradictions in terminological approaches

The successful implementation of the Minsk Protocol has been impugned from the moment of its signing due to ambiguous interpretations of its nature and intentions. The main issues pertain to understanding of the conflict in the Southeast of Ukraine as an intergovernmental, internationalized or domestic political one, the legitimacy and status of the parties to agreement, as well as the role of the international community in settlement of the conflict. The indicated contradictions are also reflected in the difference of approaches towards definition of the conceptual apparatus, as well as its interpretation. The problem at hand goes beyond the scope of political science or legal analysis, and requires comprehensive examination based on the variety of theoretical and methodological approaches. The author agrees with the characterization of conflict in the Southeast of Ukraine as a formalized political unsettled situation. From the political and legal perspectives, the agreements on halting the war demonstrate typical examples of challenges and problems that emerge during negotiations and implementation of the internationalized peace treaties of the post-Cold War period. The refusal of one of the parties, usually the country which territorial integrity is disputed by the non-state party, to meet the other party in the course of peace negotiations is a typical complication of the negotiation processes. Direct negotiations, i.e. meetings where the parties to negotiation make eye contact, can be interpreted as the acts of implicit recognition of non-state parties, their representatives, as well as respective claims. Such different perspective on the mandate, accountability, responsibility, and the status of “direct” and “third” parties in course of negotiation and implementation of peace treaties are typical contradictions. Throughout the entire period of elaboration, signing, and implementation of the agreements, the clash of interests virtually shifted towards the interpretation of terminology.

Nigeria - United States of America (USA) bilateral ties in historical perspective

This work is the analysis of the bilateral relationship between Nigeria and the United States of America (USA) between 1960 and 2016. It carries-out a historical and systemic analysis of the relationship between the two countries in the cold war and post-cold war period. By using the qualitative research methodology, and a narrative and descriptive style, the work shows how both countries leveraged on this relationship to advance their different foreign policy interests. The use of the qualitative research methodology necessitates extensive and comprehensive collation, organization and interpretation of secondary materials such as textbooks and academic journals. This enables the work to discover that political, economic and social issues defined the relationship between the two from 1960 to 2016. In its conclusion, the paper shows that the bilateral ties, though sometimes acrimonious and conflictual, were to the mutual benefits of the two countries. Key words: Nigeria, United States, bilateral relations, economic ties, foreign policy.

Dangerous dyads in the post-Soviet space: explaining Russia's military escalation decisions, 1992–2010

AbstractThis paper analyses the military behaviour of Russia from 1992 to 2010. The method used is a combination of the dyad analysis introduced by Stuart Bremer in 1992 and the analysis of unit-level variables, which is distinctive of foreign policy analysis. We empirically test a set of hypotheses about the determinants of Russia's military behaviour in the post-Cold War period by considering the impact of changes of international variables – relative power, the presence of military alliance pacts, the territorial salience of the dispute – and state-level variables – the degree of democracy/autocracy and regime vulnerability. A bivariate and a multivariate analysis are carried out to explain the separate and joint impacts of independent variables.

Trends of Armed Conflict in Kenya from 1997 to 2021: An Exploratory Data Analysis

Armed conflict patterns have drastically changed since the post-cold war period. In Sub-Saharan Africa, armed conflict continues to be persistent and on the rise. Kenya has not experienced civil war, but has experienced intra-state conflicts which display themselves as political, natural resources, ethnicity, land, and environmental conflicts. This study aimed to identify patterns and trends of armed conflict in Kenya. Secondary data from Armed Conflict and Location Events Data (ACLED) for the period 15^th January 1997 to 25^th February 2021 was used. Exploratory data analysis and generalized additive model were used to identify patterns and trends. For the period studied, 7,437-armed conflict events and 11,071 fatalities were recorded. There was a non-linear trend and a general increase in the number of armed conflict cases in Kenya. The peaks in the non-linear trend were observed during the years 2002, 2007, 2013 and 2017. On the contrary, the number of fatalities from armed conflict decreased over time and had a non-linear trend, with peaks in the years 1998, 2001, 2007, 2013 and, 2017. Similarly, there was a reduction in the number of fatalities per armed conflict over time with 149 fatalities per 100-armed conflict events recorded in the study period. Linear and non-linear trend of armed conflict events was observed at the county levels, with counties like Nairobi and Nakuru having a non-linear trend similar to the overall trend. The number of events of armed conflict for riots and protests event type had a non-linear trend while the rest had a linear trend with a positive slope. Violence Against Civilians (VAC) event type had the highest number of events followed by Riots and Protests. Additionally, VAC had the highest number of fatalities followed by Battles and Riots. In terms of fatalities per armed conflict, Explosions/Remote violence event type had the highest fatality rate followed by Battles and VAC. The peaks in the number of armed conflict cases and fatalities were observed in the years in which general elections were conducted in Kenya.

A ALAVANCA ENERGÉTICA RUSSA: A Utilização do Setor de Petróleo e Gás como Instrumento Geopolítico.

Neste texto busca-se sistematizar o papel da industria do petroleo e gas (PG Geopolitica Energetica; Petroleo e Gas. ABSTRACT: This text seeks to systematize the role of the oil and gas industry (P&G) in the geopolitical strengthening of the Russian Federation in the post-Cold War period. The analysis focuses on the actions taken by the country after the arrival of Vladimir Putin to power, since the corporatist nature of his government, based on a “vertical of power”, favors the use of the referred sector for geopolitical purposes. The motivation for writing an article is to contribute to the systematic studies of the Kremlin's initiatives around the energy lever of power and the reactions raised by these initiatives in other actors in the region. Our goal is to characterize the variable “Russian oil and gas sector”. This will be carried out based on quantitative analysis with regard to the verification of measurement elements linked to the variable, such as export volumes, however, qualitative analysis will also be used. Results indicate three fronts of central action of the great Russian strategy with respect to the sector: Europe, China and close foreigners, based on projects for the construction of oil and gas pipelines and strategic investments in partner countries.. Keywords: Russian Federation. Energy Geopolitics. Oil and Gas.

FORMATION OF THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AT THE END OF THE XX CENTURY

The article discusses approaches to the study of the theoretical foundations of the U.S. foreign policy. For decades, the United States has been one of the most important actors in international relations. The post-Cold War period is one of the most important periods in the U.S. foreign policy. At this time, scholars also debate the new role of the United States in the structure of international relations. Singling out the United States as the only center of power, American researchers supported the idea of a “unipolar” world. The ideas of American scholars and researchers dominated the words of American political leaders of the time: the United States is a world leader, and its mission is to establish a new international political and economic order based on liberal democratic values. The ideas of spreading democratic values and the theory of a democratic peace have had a significant impact on the formation and development of the U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War. The article examines the content and essence of these theories, their basic principles, and the reflection of these theories in the foreign policy of the United States.

Engage, Dis-Engage and Re-Engage: Analysing Beijing-Delhi Relations since the Post-Cold War Period

China and India are interlinked through their civilization, culture, economy, trade, and technology. Their interactions are increasing yet constrained by certain political and territorial disputes. The current state of their relations appears to be disengaged by the events, such as Chinese blockage of Indian entry into NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) in 2016, and their military confrontation at Doklam plateau in the year 2017, re-engaged at Wuhan on April 28, 2018, but again dis-engaged due to conflict at Ladakh (Galwan Valley) 2020, shows how their relations have engaged and disengaged. This paper examines how both states have engaged, disengaged, and re-engaged since the Post-Cold War period. The study finds that both countries have huge potential and opportunities to expand and deepen their economic and trade ties not only for their mutual interest but also for the region at large. It concludes that the nature of their relations would remain highly competitive in terms of trade and economy, oil, and energy, gaining status, and influence at the regional and global levels.