Post-accession Period Research Articles

Regional Specialisation and Industrial Concentration in Romania's Transition Period from an Election Cycle Perspective

In this paper we propose an inquiry into the patterns of regional specialisation and industrial concentration in Romania during its transition to a market economy (1990–2004). Following an econometric modelling-based approach we demonstrate that the changes in these patterns have been influenced to a large extent by election cycles, and more precisely by changes in the economic policy options determined by the ‘colour’ of each corresponding government. These findings have an important significance for the postaccession period, suggesting the need for decisions on economic structures to be carefully monitored when a new election cycle is approaching, in order to avoid possible negative consequences for efficiency and integration in EU structures.

Is the Current Account Deficit a Problem for Romania?

The current account deficit of Romania, both significant in size and persistent, has been a worrying issue affecting the country’s economic and financial macro-stability also in the medium and long term. This paper sets out to review the causes of that phenomenon and its coverage resources during the last 2 years, 2006 and 2007, while the final part deals with the potential developments of said parameters during the post European Union accession period, as well as of their respective influential factors.

The politics of EU conditionality: the norm of minority protection during and beyond EU accession

The norm of minority protection is often singled out as a prime example of the political impact of European Union (EU) conditionality on the ethnically diverse states of Central and Eastern Europe. The EU's ‘minority condition’ is best understood as a political and social construct rooted in European security concerns. As such, it has had very ‘real’ effects, both intended and unintended, and direct and indirect. This article extends the study of EU conditionality by including the post-accession period, and by concentrating on the politics surrounding conditionality. As the cases of Latvia and Estonia demonstrate, high-intensity EU involvement during the accession process did generate a rationalist momentum for legislative change, and formal compliance gave rise to a perception of behavioural change. However, socialization effects can point in the opposite direction of the rationalist momentum that informs formal legal change and thereby ‘lock in’ deeper structural problems and contradictory behavioural trends.

Demographic and labour-market impacts of migration on Poland

Post-2004 labour migration from Poland turned out to be one of the most spectacular migratory movements in contemporary European history. This outflow on a massive scale is surmised to impact on demographic, economic, and social phenomena both in Poland and in the receiving countries. The aim of this paper is to assess the demographic and labour-market impacts of the recent migration of Poles. We argue that selectivity patterns in the post-accession period differ significantly from those noted in the pre-accession phase. Recently, a stronger propensity to migrate is observed among young and relatively well-educated people who, at the same time, originate from economically backward areas characterized by limited employment opportunities. This observation is consistent with our assessment of the labour-market impacts of recent migration from Poland. From the analyses presented it follows that the short- and medium-term impacts of migration on the Polish labour market are moderate. However, as we argue, recent outflow might contribute significantly to a crowding-out of the economy in the long term.

Macroeconomic aspects of the development of Slovak regions in the post-accession period

The objective of this paper is the analysis of the macroeconomic aspects of regional development in the Slovak Republic. Regional development is a much frequented topic recently. In the pre-accession period, Slovak regions had the opportunity of benefiting from the pre-accession funds and competing for finances through projects and strategies. The EU support did not stop with the accession, it continues with the increasing intensity and variability at present. The real challenge is how efficiently is this support used and if it goes to the destinations where it is most needed. For the purposes of the identification of regional development tendencies, we have tried to analyze the selected macroeconomic characteristics for Slovak regions at the NUTS III level. We analyze the following indicators: GDP per capita, labor productivity, foreign direct investment, so that we can explore the situation of living standards in the regions and the determinants. We use the cluster analysis approach in order to specify and identify the regions with similar development characteristics. Based on our findings, we make some recommendations on the support and development strategies for Slovak regions.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of EU Accession under Alternative Monetary Policies

AbstractThis article provides an analytical discussion of the adjustment to EU accession for an economy under alternative assumptions about monetary policy rules. The post‐accession phase is characterized by rapid capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation. If accession is combined with membership of the euro area and a pegged exchange rate, then the post‐accession period exhibits excessive foreign borrowing, high wage inflation, an excessive stock market boom, and much too rapid growth in the non‐traded sector at the expense of the exportable goods sector. Alternative monetary policies can be used to eliminate the inefficiencies of the post‐accession adjustment, but some bring real costs in terms of lower growth and unemployment. We find that the best policy is one of flexible inflation targeting with some weight on exchange rate stability. In the absence of exchange rate adjustment, fiscal policy could be used, but this requires complicated time‐varying expenditure taxes. While the analytical discussion emphasizes the benefits of exchange rate adjustment, a later section of the article explores some more recent arguments regarding non‐traditional costs of exchange rate volatility.

Les gains attendus par les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale de l'élargissement de l'Union européenne et de l'entrée dans l'euro

The Benefits of EU Enlargement and Euro Membership for Central and Eastern European Countries The enlargement of the European Union to include Central and Eastern European countries has implications for the real economy and should result in financial transfers (financial assistance) to the new member states. The aim of this report is to analyse the financial benefits of future EU accession these countries may expect, and the advantages some could enjoy from their participation to EMU membership. The CEECs’ level of economic development is a crucial issue, since it is essentially this measure which determines the amount of financial assistance they may receive in the post-accession period. JEL classifications : F35, P20

The benefits of EU enlargement and Euro membership for Central and Eastern European Countries

The enlargement of the European Union to include Central and Eastern European countries has implications for the real economy and should result in financial transfers (financial assistance) to the new member states. The aim of this report is to analyse the financial benefits of future EU accession these countries may expect, and the advantages some could enjoy from their participation to EMU membership. The CEECs’ level of economic development is a crucial issue, since it is essentially this measure which determines the amount of financial assistance they may receive in the post-accession period. JEL classifications : F35, P20