Post-2000 Period Research Articles

Finansal Krizlerin Yapay Sinir Ağı Modeli ile Öngörülebilirliği: Türkiye için Bir Uygulama

Finansal krizler 1980 sonrası dönemde üzerinde daha çok tartışılmaya başlayan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Kapitalizm doğası itibarıyla krize yol açma eğilimindedir. Bundan dolayı tarihsel süreç içerisinde birçok kriz görülmüştür. 1980 sonrası finansal krizlere olan ilgi artmıştır. Bunun başlıca nedeni krizlerin görülme sıklığındaki artış ve etkilerinin daha global olmasıdır. Finansal krizlerin ülke ekonomisi üzerindeki yıkıcı etkileri yanında sosyolojik etkileri de bulunmaktadır. Krizlerin bu özelliği bu konuda çalışan kişileri krizleri ortaya çıkartan faktörleri bulmaya yönlendirmiştir. Yeni finansal mimari oluşturma çalışmalarındaki temel konulardan biride finansal kriz göstergelerinin tespitidir. Kriz göstergelerini tespit etmek amacıyla birçok değişik yöntem kullanılmaktadır. Bu modeller genel olarak erken uyarı sistemi (EWS) olarak adlandırılmaktadır. İktisatçıları bu konuda çalışmaya iten temel neden finansal krizlerin ülkelerde yarattığı döviz kaybı, aşırı resesyon ve negatif büyüme oranlarıdır. Bundan dolayı finansal krizlerin öngörülmesini sağlayacak güvenilir göstergelerin tanımlanması büyük fayda sağlayacaktır. Krizlere neden olan faktörler bilinmekle birlikte finansal krizler yeniden ortaya çıkmaktadır. Finansal krizlerin öngörülebilirliğiyle ilgili çalışmalarda gelecekte sorun yaratması muhtemel değişkenlerin tespit edilip izlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışmada Türkiye için 2008 yılındaki kriz dönemi verileri kullanılarak bir sonraki kriz için hangi göstergelerin izlenmesi gerektiği yapay sinir ağı modeli kullanılarak tespit edilmeye çalışılacaktır.

Atmospheric remobilization of natural and anthropogenic contaminants during wildfires

Globally, wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity, exposing populations to toxic trace elements stored within forests. Trace element and Pb isotope compositions in aerosols (n = 87) from four major wildfires near Sydney, Australia (1994-2004) were evaluated (Mood’s median test) to determine any significant differences in concentration before, during or after wildfires. The US EPA’s positive matrix factorization (PMF) model was used to distinguish a wildfire-related particulate source factor. Atmospheric concentrations of Cd and Mn were approximately 2.5 times higher during fire periods. PMF modelling distinguished a soil factor (Ca, Si, Ti and Zn) and an anthropogenically-sourced factor (Cd, Pb). The Cd, Pb anthropogenic factor was present at twice the concentration during wildfire periods (compared to before or after). Lead isotopic analyses of aerosols revealed that former leaded gasoline depositions were subject to remobilization during post-2000 wildfire periods. Trace element increases during wildfires are unlikely to exceed health-based criteria.

Does the 2008-global financial crisis matter for the determinants of conventional and Islamic banking performances in Indonesia?

Purpose – This study explores comparatively the effects of capital adequacy, non-performing loans/financing, liquidity, and operating expenses on Indonesia’s conventional and Islamic banking performances between the pre-and post-2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) periods. Methodology – The study selected the three respective largest conventional and Islamic banks as a sample of the study using a purposive sampling technique. The data for the pre-2008 GFC period (i.e., 2003 – 2008) and the post-2008 GFC period (i.e., 2009 – 2017) were analyzed using a panel multiple regression analysis. Findings – The study documented different influences of capital adequacy, liquidity, non-performing loans/financing, and operating expenses on conventional and Islamic banking performances between the pre- and post-2008 GFC. Research limitations – This study only investigated the banks’ characteristics as the determinants of banking performances and compared merely the effects the pre- and post-2008 GFC periods. Practical implications – To maintain and enhance their performances, the Islamic and conventional banks should adopt different financial policies between the normal and turbulent economic periods. The Islamic banks were in a better position amid the crisis, showing an urgent need for the government to further promote Islamic banks, as they could offer better solutions for economic stability. Originality – The study examined a larger number of conventional and Islamic banks over more extended and updated study periods, namely six years (i.e., 2003-2008) before the 2008 GFC and ten years (i.e., 2009-2018) after the 2018 GFC. The study is among the first attempts to comparatively analyze the determinants of Indonesia’s Islamic and conventional banking performances between the pre- and post-2008 GFC periods using the panel multiple regression analysis to arrive at more comprehensive and robust empirical evidence.

Computing Macro-Effects and Welfare Costs of Temperature Volatility: A Structural Approach

We produce novel empirical evidence on the relevance of temperature volatility shocks for the dynamics of productivity, macroeconomic aggregates and asset prices. Using two centuries of UK temperature data, we document that the relationship between temperature volatility and the macroeconomy varies over time. First, the sign of the causality from temperature volatility to TFP growth is negative in the post-war period (i.e., 1950–2015) and positive before (i.e., 1800–1950). Second, over the pre-1950 (post-1950) period temperature volatility shocks positively (negatively) affect TFP growth. In the post-1950 period, temperature volatility shocks are also found to undermine equity valuations and other main macroeconomic aggregates. More importantly, temperature volatility shocks are priced in the cross section of returns and command a positive premium. We rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long-run productivity and temperature volatility risk. In the model temperature volatility shocks generate non-negligible welfare costs. Such costs decrease (increase) when coupled with immediate technology adaptation (capital depreciation).

Women and Gender in Iraq: Between Nation-Building and Fragmentation

Women and Gender in Iraq: Between Nation-Building and Fragmentation

UK INTERREGIONAL INEQUALITY IN A HISTORICAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE CONTEXT

This paper explores the nature and scale of inter-regional and inter-urban inequalities in the UK in the context of international comparisons and our aim is to identify the extent to which such inequalities are associated with strong national economic performance. In order to do this, we first discuss the evolution of UK interregional inequalities relative to comparator European economies over more than a century. We then focus specifically on comparisons between the UK and the reunified Germany. These two exercises demonstrate that the experience of the UK has been rather different to other countries. We further explore UK inter-urban inequalities in the light of international evidence and then explain why observations of cities only tell us a partial story about the nature of interregional inequalities, especially in the case of the UK. Finally, we move onto an OECD-wide analysis of the relationships between economic growth and interregional inequality. What we observe is that any such relationships are very weak, and the only real evidence of a positive relationship is in the post-2008 crisis period, a result which points to differentials in regional resilience rather than inequality-led growth. Moreover, once former transition economies are removed from the sample, the relationship disappears, or if anything becomes slightly negative. As such, the international evidence suggests that the UK’s very high spatial inequalities have hampered, rather than facilitated, national economic growth.

Study of the dependence of long-term stratospheric ozone trends on local solar time

Abstract. Reliable ozone trends after 2000 are essential to detect early ozone recovery. However, the long-term ground-based and satellite ozone profile trends reported in the literature show a high variability. There are multiple reasons for variability in the reported long-term trends such as the measurement timing and the dataset quality. The Payerne Switzerland microwave radiometer (MWR) ozone trends are significantly positive at 2 % to 3 % per decade in the upper stratosphere (5–1 hPa, 35–48 km), with a high variation with altitude. This is in accordance with the Northern Hemisphere (NH) trends reported by other ground-based instruments in the SPARC LOTUS project. In order to determine what part of the variability between different datasets comes from measurement timing, Payerne MWR and SOCOL v3.0 chemistry–climate model (CCM) trends were estimated for each hour of the day with a multiple linear regression model. Trends were quantified as a function of local solar time (LST). In the middle and upper stratosphere, differences as a function of LST are reported for both the MWR and simulated trends for the post-2000 period. However, these differences are not significant at the 95 % confidence level. In the lower mesosphere (1–0.1 hPa, 48–65 km), the 2010–2018 day- and nighttime trends have been considered. Here again, the variation in the trend with LST is not significant at the 95 % confidence level. Based on these results we conclude that significant trend differences between instruments cannot be attributed to a systematic temporal sampling effect. The dataset quality is of primary importance in a reliable trend derivation, and multi-instrument comparison analyses can be used to assess the long-term stability of data records by estimating the drift and bias of instruments. The Payerne MWR dataset has been homogenized to ensure a stable measurement contribution to the ozone profiles and to take into account the effects of three major instrument upgrades. At each instrument upgrade, a correction offset has been calculated using parallel measurements or simultaneous measurements by an independent instrument. At pressure levels smaller than 0.59 hPa (above ∼50 km), the homogenization corrections to be applied to the Payerne MWR ozone profiles are dependent on LST. Due to the lack of reference measurements with a comparable measurement contribution at a high time resolution, a comprehensive homogenization of the sub-daily ozone profiles was possible only for pressure levels larger than 0.59 hPa. The ozone profile dataset from the Payerne MWR, Switzerland, was compared with profiles from the GROMOS MWR in Bern, Switzerland, satellite instruments (MLS, MIPAS, HALOE, SCHIAMACHY, GOMOS), and profiles simulated by the SOCOL v3.0 CCM. The long-term stability and mean biases of the time series were estimated as a function of the measurement time (day- and nighttime). The homogenized Payerne MWR ozone dataset agrees within ±5 % with the MLS dataset over the 30 to 65 km altitude range and within ±10 % of the HARMonized dataset of OZone profiles (HARMOZ, limb and occultation measurements from ENVISAT) over the 30 to 65 km altitude range. In the upper stratosphere, there is a large nighttime difference between Payerne MWR and other datasets, which is likely a result of the mesospheric signal aliasing with lower levels in the stratosphere due to a lower vertical resolution at that altitude. Hence, the induced bias at 55 km is considered an instrumental artifact and is not further analyzed.

Chinese Strategy Towards Europe: The Belt and Road Initiative and 17 + 1 Strategy – What Does It Mean for the EU and Central and Eastern Europe?

Several projects like the Silk Road have been developed by different countries in the post-1991 period, but there is only one that had a tremendous global impact: the “One Belt One Road” (Belt and Road) Initiative developed by China. This project was fi rst announced by the Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Central Asia in 2013, and has subsequently had a tremendous global, regional and national effect. The Belt and Road Initiative not only covers almost the entire Asian continent, but also a large geographical area that extends from East Africa to Europe. Through this project China aims to promote common development and welfare sharing among all countries along the Belt and Road routes, to establish mutual political trust between China and these countries, to more effectively connect transportation networks among regions and cities along the routes, and to establish cultural contact between societies. Accordingly, China wants to put its development process on a planned and solid basis by increasing its global impact in the economic, political, and cultural fields.

Boundaries on Turkish export-oriented industrialization

This study examines the Turkish experience of export-oriented industrialization by emphasizing its linkage to previous capital accumulation model and developments and by the evolution of political and economic institutions. The study emphasizes that the structural drawbacks in Turkish economy that emerged in the economic development process aggravated in post-1980 period and aims to uncover the political and economic mechanisms leading to its aggravation. The VAR methodology is used to model Turkish economy’s experience of export-oriented industrialization by using the data for the period 2007: Q1–2017: Q4. The impulse response analysis results show that export is responsive to investment and capacity utilization and responsive to interest rate and import in the negative direction. Import is responsive to export, investment and capacity utilization in a positive direction and decreases with interest rate. Investment increases with export, but decreases with imports. Additionally, the debt level increases with export and investment, but decreases with import and import increases the interest rate and export decreases the interest rate.

The exclusionary side of (women’s) social citizenship in Southeastern Europe: childcare policy development in Bosnia-Herzegovina and gender, social and territorial inequalities

ABSTRACT The article explores the shifts in (women’s) social citizenship in Bosnia-Herzegovina and its effect on the development of childcare policy in the 1945–2019 period. Gendered, selective childcare policy, which was inherent in the socialist notion of social citizenship and aimed to emancipate women as ‘worker-mothers’, deteriorated in the transition period when ethnicity became prioritized over gender and class. Exclusionary citizenship practices increased with the post-1990 reforms as gender and social inequalities incorporated into childcare policy design become intertwined with inequalities based on ethnicity and/or locality. The post-1990 period is characterized by discontinuity, retrenchment and weak implementation of childcare-related rights.

Enriching the Lives of Marginalised Sections: Case of MGNREGS in Composite Andhra Pradesh, India

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) initiated in 2006 is essentially a reaction to the jobless growth witnessed in the post-1991 reforms period. The Scheme seeks to improve the livelihoods of the marginalised sections in rural areas by generating wage employment. The article is an attempt to examine if the Scheme is really benefitting these sections as envisaged. Our village survey data of composite Andhra Pradesh (AP) brings to the fore the fact that the socially lowly placed scheduled castes (SCs), scheduled tribes (STs) and other backward castes (OBCs) were well represented among the beneficiaries of the Scheme, female participation in the Scheme was way beyond expectations, the Scheme was indeed the mainstay of the illiterate and the little educated that look for manual labour, and the otherwise rarely preferred elderly of the labour market found place in the Scheme and they could make significant contribution to earnings of poor households. It further throws up the finding that the Scheme was an important employment avenue to reckon with in the rural labour market and therefore, it increased the bargaining strength and the reservation wage rate of the labour force. Briefly, the Scheme contributed to inclusive growth.

Refah Sisteminin Dönüşümü Sürecinde Bakım Politikalarının Yörüngesi: Muhafazakâr Refah Rejimi Temelinde Bir Değerlendirme

The concept of care has gone beyond being an issue attributed to the private sphere in line with the social service policies undertaken by the modern welfare state since its emergence and its scope has been discussed in a wider framework covering the public sphere. The inclusion of the concept of care in welfare regime analyses is important in terms of how care responsibilities are shared between the state, the market and the family in society and how this sharing affects the social and economic relations of the society. In line with the transformation in the welfare system with the economic, social and demographic developments since 1970s, the family institution’s efficiency, which has traditionally played an active role in welfare provision, especially in care services, has started to decrease. Thus, with the loss of functionality of the “familialism” principle, which is explicitly or implicitly accepted in most of the European welfare states, various reforms in care policies have been brought to the agenda. These reforms are shaped in line with the economic conditions of the countries and especially the situation in the labor markets within the framework of the characteristics of welfare regimes. The aim of this study is to present the reforms in care policies on the axis of the conservative welfare regime through the examples of Germany, France and Belgium which are thought to have the general characteristics of this regime. The evaluation shows that care policies in these countries in the post-1980 period have been implemented for similar purposes as a result of similar stimuli in two main periods: (i) 1980-2000 and (ii) 2000 and beyond. Finally, the study tried to draw a general policy framework for care in the last decade in Turkey and highlight different and similar spots in the conservative welfare regime. 

The Agriculture–Environment Relationship and Environment-based Agricultural Support Instruments in Turkey

This study aims to present the environmental performance of agriculture in Turkey, focusing on the post-2000 period, and to evaluate the agri-environmental support instruments in Turkey in light of the data obtained. According to the findings, it can be asserted that, in spite of several positive developments, Turkey’s agriculture seems to be far from sustainable. The number of farmers and the extent of the agricultural land aided by the support instruments account for very small portions of the total figures. At the same time, the amount of support provided to producers also has a very small share of the total agricultural support. Considering the findings about agri-environmental performance and agri-environmental support instruments together, we suggest that while the use of these support instruments is a positive step, the supports have not had an impact on inducing a green transition in agriculture yet. Uncertainties caused by legislative changes, amounts of support falling short of the cost of a green transition in agriculture, lack of knowledge and training activities regarding environment-friendly agricultural methods, and lack of effective organization of agricultural producers are thought to be among the reasons for this result.

Validity of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Turkey’s economy: An empirical analysis in the context of global economic crisis

In this study, validity of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in Turkey's economy is investigated with two separate analyzes for the period of 2002-2008 and 2008-2019. In the study, gold prices, time deposit interest rates, exchange rate, Central Bank Leading Indicators Index and VIX fear index data which are considered to affect the returns of securities (Stock Exchange) are used. Stationarity of the series is tested by ADF unit root test and the series are determined to be stationary at different levels. The cointegration of the series in the model is examined by Bounds Testing method and it is seen that the series are cointegrated. The regression analysis is performed by ARDL method and it is determined that gold is the substitute of BIST 100 just in the short term between 2002 and 2008, while foreign exchange is substitute of it both in the long and short term in the two periods. Moreover, the time deposit interest rates are substitutes of BIST 100 in the long term between 2002 and 2008. It is also found that the time deposit interest rates during the period of 2008-2019, similar to economic conjuncture in the country in the 2002-2019 periods, have a supportive effect on BIST 100 index in the long term. It is observed that the increases in financial fear level (VIX) negatively influence BIST 100 index returns in the post-2008 period. Error correction mechanisms of the models operate.

Birds of a feather: Anand Panyarachun, elite families and network monarchy in Thailand

This article attempts to illuminate Duncan McCargo's influential yet ambiguous concept of ‘network monarchy’ — the source of political power wielded by Thailand's royalist establishment. Drawing on Thai-language primary sources, especially cremation volumes, I argue, first, that many individuals who have made up various institutional components of the network monarchy come from a constellation of traditional royalist families that have intermarried with each other. Contrary to what McCargo suggests, these people are not just bound by their devotion to the monarchy alone, but also by their families’ pervasive intermarriage ties forged over many decades. These ties have given the network monarchy additional resilience, even though not all its members toe the ideological line all the time. My second argument concerns the temporal context in which the network monarchy has come into being. Although McCargo makes it seem that the late King Bhumibol developed the network monarchy — his personal patronage network — as a political tool from scratch in the post-1973 period, it has actually grown, in part, out of the pre-existing elite family networks. I develop these twin arguments by using the case of one royalist prime minister — Anand Panyarachun — as a focal point of analysis.

The Impact of Interest Rate Changes by Federal Reserve on Turkey

Central banks play an important role in the direction of capital flows through the interest rate channel. Capital flows also impact the exchange rate, which are important goals of monetary policy. Due to the prominence of the U.S. Dollar in international trade, decisions made by the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) also affect the decisions of Central Banks of other countries. During the 2008 financial crisis the FED reached the zero-bound of its policy rate (the federal funds rate) and engaged in quantitative easing. This lead to capital outflows from developing countries, who then raised interest rates defensively to protect their economies from adverse effects in their terms of trade. This study examines the relationship between interest rates, effective exchange rates and growth by means of Granger Causality test, as a result of interest rates determined by FED in post-2003 period, in the direction of the interest rate Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT/TCMB) applies to Dollar deposits. Turkey is a country that floats its exchange rate but protects against large movements. According to analysis results, the decisions made by CBRT are affected by FED interest rate changes. On the other hand, it was concluded that there was not any effect of CBRT interest rates on the exchange rate, consistent with its floating regime.

Contributions of tropical-extratropical oceans to the prediction skill of ENSO after 2000

The skill of most ENSO prediction models has declined significantly since 2000. This decline may be due to a weakening of the correlation between tropical predictors and ENSO. Moreover, the effects of extratropical ocean variability on ENSO have increased during this period. To improve ENSO predictability, the authors investigate the influence of the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans on ENSO during the pre-2000 and post-2000 periods, and find that the influence of the northern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (NTA SST) on ENSO has significantly increased since 2000. Furthermore, there is a much earlier and stronger correlation between NTA SST and ENSO over the central-eastern Pacific during June-July-August in the post-2000 period compared with the pre-2000 period. The extratropical Pacific SST predictors for ENSO retain an approximate 10-month lead time after 2000. The authors use SST signals in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific to predict ENSO using a statistical prediction model. This results in a significant improvement in ENSO prediction skill and an obvious decrease in the spring predictability barrier phenomenon of ENSO. These results indicate that extratropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs can make substantial contributions to ENSO prediction, and can be used to enhance ENSO predictability after 2000.

Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall extremes in the flood-prone Nagavali and Vamsadhara Basins in eastern India

Understanding the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics has a major role in assessing the availability of water resources over a catchment. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the changes in rainfall characteristics using gridded precipitation data and robust statistical analysis for making decisions. In this study, the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes over the Nagavali and Vamsadhara river basins are studied at three time steps (long-term-1901-2018, pre-1950, and post-1950) with four different Mann-Kendall (MK) tests using daily gridded rainfall data of 118 years (1901–2018). The spatial patterns of the trends are evaluated with the kriging interpolation method. Magnitude in rainfall and rainfall extremes (CDD, CWD, PRCPTOT, R10MM, R20MM, R40MM, R95PTOT, RX1DAY, and RX5DAY) are analyzed using the Sen's slope method. Except in the monsoon season, a decreasing trend is observed in all the rainfall extremes in post-1950 compared to pre-1950 period. Whereas, in the monsoon an increasing trend is observed for the extremes in post-1950 period. Overall period (i.e, 1901–2018) an increasing trend is observed for rainfall and rainfall extremes in the pre-monsoon (March–May), monsoon (June–Sep) seasons and a decreasing trend in the winter season (Dec–Feb) for both the basins. No obvious trends are evident in the post-monsoon season (Oct–Nov). At the annual scale, rainfall and rainfall extremes exhibited an increasing trend. Overall, the Nagavali basin experienced more extreme rainfall events indicating the higher vulnerability of floods while the middle and lower portions of the Vamsadhara basin shown increase in extremes. When linked with hydrological analysis, insights gained from this study are useful for flood vulnerability mapping and risk assessment for both the basins.

Streamflow Alterations, Attributions, and Implications in Extended East Rapti Watershed, Central-Southern Nepal

Streamflow alteration and subsequent change in long-term average, seasonality, and extremes (e.g., floods and droughts) may affect water security, which is a major concern in many watersheds across the globe. Both climatic and anthropogenic activities may contribute to such changes. Therefore, this study assesses: (i) Streamflow and precipitation trends to identify streamflow alterations in the Extended East Rapti (EER) watershed in central-southern Nepal; (ii) relationship of the alterations to climatic and anthropogenic sources; and (iii) implications of streamflow changes to the socio-environmental system. The trends in streamflow were analyzed for pre-and post-1990 periods considering the abrupt shift in temperature trend in 1990. Results showed a general decreasing trends in discharge post-1990 in the EER watershed. Human activities have significantly contributed in altering streamflow in the EER. Human-induced streamflow alterations have affected the water availability, food security, river health, aquatic biodiversity, and groundwater abstraction in the EER watershed.

Evaluating long-term variability in precipitation and temperature in eastern plateau region, India, and its impact on urban environment

In the present study, the long-term variability in precipitation and temperatures was analyzed in relation to the urban environment of Ranchi Metropolitan Region, eastern plateau region, India. The daily meteorological observations of 5 decades (1961–2010) indicated an increasing mean temperature (0.4 °C) and decreasing cumulative precipitation in the Ranchi, capital region of the state Jharkhand. The results exhibited a declining precipitation patterns in the recent decade as compared to the earlier 4 decades. The high daily monsoon rainfall intensity with low cumulative precipitation can be observed during post-2000 periods, which indicate a highly erratic nature of precipitation in the region. Temporal census data demonstrated that the Ranchi urban region faced enormous proliferation in the human population (21 times) during the period 1927–2010 and thereby induced the extensive alteration in land use/land cover and rapid built-up expansion (> 5 times) as evidenced by the temporal satellite-based observations. The increasing annual per capita land consumption (361.50%) together with annual per capita loss of heat sink zones (96.3% during 1927–2010) and high influx of vehicles (563% during 1997–2010) influenced the local and regional climatic variable in the region. The results indicate that the rapid and haphazard urban sprawl in the last few decades and increase in built-up and impervious surface largely contributed in increasing the land surface temperature (34–42 °C) as compared to the rural environment (30–38 °C), which perhaps could be the region for the changes in climate and weather pattern of the area.